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Canceling Tokyo Olympics would cut Japan GDP growth by 1.4%: estimate

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Yep! It's all about the money. Don't worry about how many people could be infected and die. That's secondary.

18 ( +22 / -4 )

Wouldn't the cancellation have a bigger drain on Tokyo's economy?

4 ( +7 / -3 )

JT "expertise" was right all along.

Japan total GDP of 4.9 Trillion Dollars - (7.4% tourism) - (1.4% Olympics cancellation) = Japan total OBLITERATION AND ECONOMIC RUIN.

Probably Japan's 8.8% GDP contraction will finally turn South Korea's Passport into the World's most powerful.

-9 ( +4 / -13 )

That is probably cheaper than the cost of medical treatment of millions of people getting coronavirus at Olympic events. The government covers 70% of the cost.

15 ( +15 / -0 )

If GDP growth is zero or near zero, 1.4% of it is not going to be very much.

I suspect they have used "GDP growth" not simply "GDP" because it makes the loss sound bigger, adding pressure to keep the Games on. Much of the stimulus from the Games will have already happened from the construction. The rest is just some more visitors to Japan and the hard to quantify effect of the Games as tourism advertising.

8 ( +8 / -0 )

2020 Tokyo Olympics would be cancelled this year, athletes would/could not come for games, even if Japan became under control. Coronavirus is still spreading out all over the world. Nobody wants virus back home after Olympics is over.

7 ( +8 / -1 )

@Disillusioned: I agree with you.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

So what ?

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

Coronavirus is still spreading out all over the world. Nobody wants virus back home after Olympics is over.

Bit of an oxymoron, isn't it. If the virus is already "spreading out all over the world", the athletes will just be bringing it here from their home countries. No escaping it so let the games begin!

2 ( +5 / -3 )

Tokyo Olympics is the responsibility of Abe not ours.

I voted to cancel it.

11 ( +11 / -0 )

Yep! It's all about the money. Don't worry about how many people could be infected and die. That's secondary.

Obviously public health is the priority, but what is your point, exactly? The article is just providing information about the economic forecasts, its not saying these are to be prioritized over the health impacts at all. You seem to be saying that even discussing the economic impact is somehow not allowed and all we can talk about is infections and dying.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

This virus is very dangerous for elderly, which Japan have plenty.

Not cancelling public events is irresponsible specially when the concern is money.

9 ( +9 / -0 )

Is the choice between cancelling the Olympics and having them go on as usual, with full participation by contestants and viewers, or is the choice between cancelling the Olympics and having a much reduced participation level from both contestants and viewers?

How many people have to cancel before the economic downside is equivalent to just cancelling the Olympics altogether? Ten percent? Fifty percent? 70 percent?

Perhaps there is still time left to sit back and contemplate about what is the best response, from both an economic and public health viewpoint, but that time is running out. If I were planning to travel to Japan to watch the games, I would be inclined to cancel. Perhaps the contestants would still choose to attend.

Much of the economic benefit of the Games comes from television rights, so cancelling the plans for most tourists might still be doable.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Postpone it until next summer.

Reassess the situation in Jan 2021

7 ( +7 / -0 )

In April 2015, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation became a Gold Partner (banking category) for the Olympic and Paralympic Games Tokyo 2020. Through the sponsorship for Tokyo 2020, we hope to "aggressively carve out Japan's future and contribute to its continued growth and that of our customers."………..

https://www.smbc.co.jp/global/sponsorship/

SMBC Nikko Securities Inc, has a financial vested interest ensuring their report is economically "gloom ridden" if the Olympic and Paralympic Games Tokyo 2020 where to be cancelled. Let’s not tip toes around the faxct this SMBC Nikko Securities Inc report is motivated purely by self-interest.

The so called economic benefits associated to "demand through spectator consumption", London 2012 Olympics never materialised, mainly due to the fact London core "tourist" spend stayed away.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Everything is always about how to keep increasing GDP. Time to come up with a new paradigm once this Black Swan event is over.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Cancellation may save lives right?

4 ( +5 / -1 )

Poor Abe, waited too long to save GDP from tourism. Now he won't be able to save GDP from the Olympics either and got blamed for everything. A perfect analogy to releasing a captured bird, to go after the two around the bushes, and lost all birds.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

The Olympics are finished, it is now too dangerous to proceed.

Tokyo-Sapporo 2021.

8 ( +8 / -0 )

Bit of an oxymoron, isn't it. If the virus is already "spreading out all over the world", the athletes will just be bringing it here from their home countries. No escaping it so let the games begin!

Not athletes, When visitors without symptom came to Japan, they would infect others. Visitors would take more coronavirus to home countries after Olympics is over. As a result, coronavirus spreading would never stop.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

I am a pragmatic person., and as such I tend to look at THE BIG PICTURE.

My opinion: CANCEL NOW.

Short term Pain v Longer Term Pain.

6 ( +6 / -0 )

And?... So what?

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

And I bet it will make the Yen even stronger and that is absurd. It should be $1.00 = ¥150

This economy is in a shambles. What is with the strong Yen?????

2 ( +3 / -1 )

From above: "Yep! It's all about the money. Don't worry about how many people could be infected and die. That's secondary."

This makes perfect capitalistic sense until people start dying: Old people, little kids, honeymoon couples, athletes (of course) and, maybe a politician or two. Then it is mess. What to do with the dead bodies. With Japanese dead bodies it might be easy enough (Here's your uncle, have a nice funeral) but with foreign dead bodies it is a major problem. What do you do with them? Send them to their own countries? How if there is no one to claim them? Are you beginning to see the problem. There's lot of morbid paperwork to do before the bodies is sent of to Fall River or Timbuktu. And meanwhile they have to be kept on ice. Imagine lot of dead bodies.

Treating sick tourists will not be easy. And expensive as many of those who survive will skip out of Japan without paying.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Tokyo-Sapporo 2021.

How don't people understand that the logistics involved in postponement are insane? Face it. There will be no Olympics ceremony any time soon.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

IOC won’t let them cancel. Abe has no say in the matter. Gonna make 1929 look like a minor market dip.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Athletes will perform in empty stadiums. 0 yen return on billions in investment. Wave of bankruptcies, unemployment an no return to heavy tourism. Japan will be Greece if it’s lucky.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

To postpone is the smart option, politically, economically and also focuses on the most essential element – the duty of care for public, spectator, and athlete welfare.

Frankly the most inspirational factor of all, something Abe san Government takes for granted, is Japan people.

Calm, composed, resilient, resolved in the face of adversity. No panic just a determined collectedness.

Sorry, in comparison, UK displays a shameful nationwide panic attack. A variable bunch of shopping cart “Ben-Hur’s”

And this example is a sanitized report…

Supermarket shelves empty as coronavirus in Oxfordshire causes panic buying.

https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/18284747.supermarket-shelves-empty-coronavirus-oxfordshire-causes-panic-buying/

“Costco” Croydon, well best on go there.

-4 ( +0 / -4 )

@Tom

The Yen seems to be lock step with the price of crude oil. If you look back through the last decade or more you will note a very close tie between the two. When the oil prices drop, the Yen goes up in value and when the crude oil prices rise, the Yen drops. Check out just how low crude oil futures are currently.

We all know that Japan and other countries are capable of controlling their currency's value but unfortunately, this time it's gotten too hot for Japan and a strong Yen doesn't help them at all when they are trying sell.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

KnowBetterToday  02:13 pm JST

@Tom

The Yen seems to be lock step with the price of crude oil. If you look back through the last decade or more you will note a very close tie between the two. When the oil prices drop, the Yen goes up in value and when the crude oil prices rise, the Yen drops. Check out just how low crude oil futures are currently.

We all know that Japan and other countries are capable of controlling their currency's value but unfortunately, this time it's gotten too hot for Japan and a strong Yen doesn't help them at all when they are trying sell.

exactly, it seems that a BIG STIMULUS IS COMING in April, the yen should drop.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Is Tokyo Mayor MIA? ...... Just a thought

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Is Tokyo Mayor MIA? 

Good question. You've got to marvel at how much leadership skirts responsibility. It's anybody else's fault but theirs.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

itsonlyrocknroll,

All of the Japanese drugstores were sold out of toilet paper as soon as the media mentioned a possible emergency....just like a few months ago when the typhoons and flooding hit ......all of the stores emptied pretty quickly......actually instantly.

I have been here a fair few years and I instantly recall March,2011 and the Fukushima meltdowns and yet again the shops were devoid of any TP,tissues and even water.

"Calm, composed, resilient, resolved in the face of adversity. No panic just a determined collectedness."

You are having a laugh,right!

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Postpone it until next summer.

Reassess the situation in Jan 2021

Next Spring would be much better. Or, even this Autumn, if the virus goes belly up this Spring/Summer.

The one silver lining of the Covid-19 cloud is the possible avoidance of having the Olympics during a Tokyo Summer, which everyone who lives in Japan, other than the politicians, knows is brutal and not appropriate at all for the Olympics.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

When IOC noticed many athletes would not come to Tokyo Olympics, It would decide to cancel it. Olympics is held or not it depends on how many countries do not join. It looks like so many.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

If I were an Olympic or any other athlete I would not come here during this crisis I bet many fans will not come either.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

The IOC's rigorous adherence to schedules is the problem here! - And should in no way be attributed to faulting Japan!

What will inevitably happen is that the Olympics will be held here in Japan without Spectators - but lets look at this in another way, Japan has a chance to show that it can show a "Virtual Audience" an even better experience than the real thing ! I hope that they do so in such a short space of time, and make the Olympics accessible for all to view rather than a select few.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Not at all Spitfire, not even a snigger.

I regularly fly between Kochi and Nagoya, have yet to experience any sign of panic or anxiety.

Obviously, that is not a generalisation.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

@itsonlyrocknroll

But you experienced "sign of panic or anxiety" in the UK ?

Can you provide reliable data to prove your statement about panic stating the cause of it, the manifestation of it, the people involved of it, the extend of it ... and so on ?

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Flute, How reliable? Well, it’s the mail….But there are photos….

Asda la vista! Supermarket shelves are stripped bare as panic-buying Britons race for essentials amid coronavirus chaos - after Tesco and other stores ration pasta, beans and hand gels…..

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8088751/Supermarket-shelves-stripped-bare-panic-buying-Britons-race-essentials-amid-coronavirus-chaos.html

The Irish Times…..

UK shops begin food rationing as result of coronavirus panic buying

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/uk-shops-begin-food-rationing-as-result-of-coronavirus-panic-buying-1.4196651

Look I am not intentionally pugnacious. In calls with Family members who recant tales of weekly shopping woes.  

Your experience? Of course, assuming you are resident in the UK ?.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

This courtesy of the Guardian……..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/08/coronavirus-stockpiling-supermarkets-toilet-paper-hand-gel

To point out, being resident in Japan, I have experience not experienced any UK “panic or anxiety” personally you understand

0 ( +1 / -1 )

@itsonlyrocknroll,

I vote you up to counter some "imbecile" who doesn't like the truth.

For some people bad news is only allowed it they pertain to Japan.

You can "smell" fear, (about to turn into panic) in London these days; just been to Sainsbury's and one of the shop assistants told me sales are down on account of people being scared to come out to shop!!!

People of Asian appearance have been beaten up on the streets:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/05/uk/coronavirus-racist-attack-police-intl-scli-gbr/index.html

Well, I don't give a damn about down votes; actually they always spur me on to come back and carry on some more ball busting.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Kudos Peeping_Tom aggree totally, down/up votes indicate strong opinions/views for or against.

I genuinely want and hope the Tokyo Games 2020 is a resounding success, I have spent crazy money on tickets. Just there are times when one has to accept that public safety must come first, and put it down to fate and experience, win lose or draw.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Tokyo 2022 sounds good

0 ( +0 / -0 )

As opposed to the long-term costs of holding them, especially given the current health crisis. Most sports have only been able to continue with the promise of not allowing spectators, including future events, but the government here as usual is just delaying the inevitable and trying to pray the virus away. The costs of delays are going to be astronomical, as are the political costs to a government already under fire for being far too slow, and far too careless with people's lives and health of the nation.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

rat pack: "Tokyo 2022 sounds good"

Won't happen, especially with the Winter Olympics that year. If it's cancelled, it's cancelled for good, with MAYBE Tokyo getting a leg up in a bid for 2032.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

@itsonlyrocknroll

So you see picture and read article of sheelves stripped bare and you call it panic ? And you get that the same phenomenon happened in Japan too ?

I think you acceptation of what a panic is is pretty low.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic

What is talked in about in the articles is mostly last minute prepper, plus some hoarder (customary meaning) and profiteer.

https://www.sciencealert.com/reasonable-preparations-before-a-crisis-isn-t-panic-buying-here-s-the-difference

NB : The document provided fail to prove the existence of panic neither during the act of buying, nor previous to it. They do not contain data either. So that is a miss but thank.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Flute, agreed, we both have an alternate opinion and view on what constitutes “panic buying” or behaviour associated with the term.

When a “shopper” enters a store selects carts and proceeds to load 80 toilets rolls, in my humble opinion that is a text book case of a “panic buyer”.

So, expect across the board rationing and remedial action to ensure the most venerable families can have long term access to purchase essentials.

British Retail Consortium…..

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/85916/flu_food_planning_assumptions.pdf

Now I have experience dealing with so called “academics and experts” in a number of financial institutions. Economists, Professors of this, that and the other. Put a few in a room and they will disagree if the light on or off.  

Here is an example from the same site blog your post quoted…………

Coronavirus: why people are panic buying loo roll and how to stop it……… Andy J. Yap Assistant Professor of Organisational Behaviour………….

http://theconversation.com/coronavirus-why-people-are-panic-buying-loo-roll-and-how-to-stop-it-133115

This is my last word on the subject of “panic buying for this thread”......

As I fear moving closer to the 2020 Olympics, it will dawn on all and sundry, without a comprehensive vacination program these games will not proceed as planned. It is time to come to terms with this fact.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

@itsonlyrocknroll

It seems you now stuck to panic buying and leave alone panic and panic attack, good.

I agree that our understanding of panic buying is not on part. "When a “shopper” enters a store selects carts and proceeds to load 80 toilets rolls." doesn't watch my definition of panic buying as the act has described seems to be done in perfect collectedness. So it match more the behavior of :

an hoarder (customary meaning) assuming he doesn't need the 80 toilets rolls for his family/friends/business if that is done at a time when the offer is tense.

a last minute prepper if he need these rolls in a limited amount of time and the offer is on the way of getting tense if not already

a prepper if the purpose is to stock in case so not done in a period were the offer is normal.

an hardcore money saver if that is done during a discount campaign.

and so on

Have a good day.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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