Japanese bank predicts years of gloom for tourist hub Osaka

Where is the much acclaimed Japanese consumer?

They are struggling to make ends meet!

The foreign tourist would spend and spend, the Japanese tourist not.

The 500 yen lunch is now more and more evident in Osaka and for restaurants not pandering to this market, bankruptcy will be the result.

The central and local governments need to reduce taxes sharply if they want people to stay employed.

What would a Japanese local bank manager know about the global outlook. They are not really known for their business sense.

it will take a decade to recover for Osaka, if at all. It is wrong to try and look to get back to the past. Businesses must adapt to any real situation and not dwell on what was before. Any company must focus on making money in the current business year and not hope for success in the future only.

Osaka will shrink because of Japans declining population, foreign visitors now have other priorities and that will remain so for much more than 2 years. And geo political situations are also changing which will mean less Chinese tourists anyhow. Osaka is stuck with a complete anachronistic event , the 2025 world expo and must make the best of it and that will mean serious out of the box thinking and Creative marketing. That means foreign expertise. The 2021 world masters games must be cancelled. But the city in real big trouble is Kobe, where foreign companies will start packing up and move to Tokyo or out of Japan all together with their national or AP headquarters.

in brief, good managers do not think about getting back to past situations but to thrive in new ones.

Maybe now I can stop hearing all the moaning and groaning about all the "loud Chinese and Korean tourists" by the Kansai locals. So many have told they avoid Umeda and Shinsaibashi due to them. I used to jokingly tell them to say thank you when they saw one. The areas in Osaka that were coming back to life due to the huge number of tourists like in Nishinari - Airin, Shinsekai, Higashi Umeda, etc. are now dead in comparison to before.

It is undeniable that there is going to be a hit, but what percentage of the Osaka economy is foreign tourism and shopping? 10%? Most people commuting to Osaka in the morning are not shop assistants or tour guides.

I'm pretty sure Osaka's population has peaked and started to fall, so the same kind of decline seen in the countryside and other provisional cities is coming. Osaka-shi itself has been losing people to Osaka-fu for decades now, and it is possible that economic outflow could increase if teleworking is to take hold post-Covid 19. There are certainly challenges ahead.

With Shinzo Abe's deregulation of Japanese economy, which it's a good thing in neoliberal economics, Osaka would be foreign-owned in the next decade. Many commenters pointed out that locals here struggle to make a living. The 500 yen lunch is now more and more evident in Osaka and for restaurants not pandering to this market, bankruptcy will be the result. Chinese already owned the large chunk of Osaka, and global economic depression accelerates the Chinese takeover of Japanese real estate industry.

https://japan-forward.com/chinas-wealthy-out-to-buy-japanese-ryokans-that-suffered-losses-during-pandemic/

The true winners from all of these are foreign investors with a lot of money, mostly Chinese and American, and Japanese Osakans lose-lose harder. Under a foreign ownership, they shouldn't expect that their foreign bosses will treat them in Japanese style, like lifetime employment or stable wages.

Certain parts of the city will definitely be hurting, like Namba, Shinsaibashi, Shin Sekai, etc.

I went to that area a couple of weeks ago and haven't seen anything like it in years - it was fun of Japanese! But lots of hope were closed, especially drug stores, and it was hard to tell how much people were actually buying. A big proportion mostly seemed to be browsing.

What would banks know?

They open from 10a-3p M-F in most areas.

Anyone with an actual day job can't even set foot in a bank during regular business hours. The only people that can use the bank are housewives.

Definitely not catering to the majority of their customers.

So who are they to talk about how poorly Osaka will do with their tourist population?

Banks know everything! They know business takings/income, they know consumer spending vs income, there are also leading indicators that accurately predicts future income etc. They wouldn't be a credible bank if they can't calculate risk. Risk is their business.

As for Osaka, locals will spend again when they believe it's safe to do so. Nobody that I'm in touch with trust government figures on covid management.