business

Boeing forecasts China’s airlines to require 8,700 new planes by 2040

22 Comments

Boeing has forecast that airlines in China will require 8,700 new airplanes by 2040, valued at $1.47 trillion, to meet expanding commercial air travel demand.

Boeing shared the 20-year forecast for China as part of its 2021 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), the company’s long-term forecast of demand for commercial airplanes and services.

China’s economic fundamentals lay the foundation for healthy air traffic increases, including 4.4% annual economic growth and a middle-income demographic that will double by 2040, according to the CMO.

By 2030, China’s domestic passenger market will exceed intra-European traffic; by 2040, China’s domestic traffic is expected to also exceed air travel within North America.

The CMO also forecasts that China’s civil aviation industry will require more than 400,000 new aviation personnel by 2040, including pilots, technicians and cabin crew.

“The rapid recovery of Chinese domestic traffic during the pandemic speaks to the market’s underlying strength and resilience,” said Richard Wynne, managing director, China Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “In addition, there are promising opportunities to significantly expand international long-haul routes and air freight capacity. Longer term, there is the potential for low-cost carrier growth to further build on single-aisle demand.”

The 2021 China CMO includes these projections through 2040:

  • Annual passenger traffic growth of 5.4%, similar to the 2020 forecast.

  • Two-thirds of deliveries supporting China’s aviation industry growth and one-third of deliveries for fleet replacement, which will move airlines toward more sustainable, fuel-efficient airplane models.

  • Single-aisle jets account for nearly 6,500 deliveries; widebody deliveries, including passenger and cargo models, will total 1,850, accounting for 44% of demand by value.

  • According to the CMO, a nearly $1.8 trillion commercial aviation services market opportunity exists in the region.

Boeing’s commitment to China involves training nearly 100,000 Chinese aviation professionals and employing more than 2,500 Boeing employees. The company says that across its businesses, training, supply chain and other activities, its presence and partnerships in China contribute more than $1.5 billion annually to the economy.

© Travel News Asia

©2021 GPlusMedia Inc.

22 Comments
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By 2030, China’s domestic passenger market will exceed intra-European traffic; by 2040, China’s domestic traffic is expected to also exceed air travel within North America.

GO CHINA !!..

-7 ( +5 / -12 )

Boeing - treacherous, unethical company doing business with Communist China.

Lets just brush aside the genocide of Uighyur Muslims, eh Boeing?

And who wants to fly in a "Made in China" plane like a Boeing? No thanks!

5 ( +10 / -5 )

Lets just brush aside the genocide of Uighyur Muslims, eh Boeing?

Yes let's! Because it didn't happen.

-7 ( +5 / -12 )

All the better for global warming.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Yes let's! Because it didn't happen.

The free world has stated loud and clear that the genocide taking place in China is the worst since WW2. Fact. To deny this is to blindly follow everything Communist China preaches.

Boycott Communist China.

Boycott the Genocide Games 2022.

6 ( +10 / -4 )

China has already started building their own commercial airplanes.

Boeing has little chance to gain any significant share in the production..

7 ( +8 / -1 )

The free world has stated loud and clear that the genocide taking place in China is the worst since WW2. Fact. To deny this is to blindly follow everything Communist China preaches.

There is a Lock Ness monster and also Big Foot. We have at least one photo of each. There are millions of Uighurs in this genocide you speak of but we can't find a single photo in this day and age.

I watched the BBC documentary and others on the supposed concentration camps. It doesn't even look like a prison. It looks like a school.

-9 ( +3 / -12 )

For once I agree with you, Fighto!

The genocide of the Uighur muslims is beyond doubt.

I wish China and the Chinese people well but not under the CCP.

Boycott the Genocide Games 2022!

5 ( +9 / -4 )

How can any manufacturer of passenger planes make a future demand forecast when many airlines are facing difficulties due to the Pandemic and disruption in international travel, and there is no forecast as to when this pandemic will be over?

2 ( +4 / -2 )

GO CHINA !!..

Yeah, but go where? And who's going to do and upkeep the safety and maintenance on their planes? They didn't even make the top 20. Scary!

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/worlds-safest-airlines-2021/index.html

1 ( +4 / -3 )

I’m sure Chinese people would be terrified to fly on a Chinese made airplane.

Have you seen their escalators that kill people? Imagine what planes could do…

7 ( +7 / -0 )

There is a Lock Ness monster and also Big Foot. We have at least one photo of each. There are millions of Uighurs in this genocide you speak of but we can't find a single photo in this day and age.

I watched the BBC documentary and others on the supposed concentration camps. It doesn't even look like a prison. It looks like a school.

This brings back fond memories of university:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/54/Xinjiang_Re-education_Camp_Lop_County.jpg

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Ethnic cleansing, and cultural genocide probably cover it better.

The Han Chinese and CCP are not actually killing people, except in occasional collateral damage.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

The free world has stated loud and clear that the genocide taking place in China is the worst since WW2. Fact.

Simply NOT a fact. My previous comment was censored but there is no independant evidence at all of anything close to a genocide. The people of Rwanda, Cambodia, East Timor and Bosnia would be would be offended by your false comparisons.

-8 ( +0 / -8 )

The people of Rwanda, Cambodia, East Timor and Bosnia would be would be offended by your false comparisons.

Whereas the Uighurs would be happy people are talking about their plight.

Stop CCP terrorism now.

6 ( +6 / -0 )

And who wants to fly in a "Made in China" plane like a Boeing? No thanks!

The Boeing airliners assembled in China probably have fewer defects than the same model assembled in South Carolina.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

Yeah, but go where? And who's going to do and upkeep the safety and maintenance on their planes? They didn't even make the top 20. Scary!

China Eastern is a good airline. If I were to judge the quality of an airline's pilots by the quality of their landings I would rate China Eastern among the best, with maybe only the old Continental Airlines as good. China Eastern has some grizzled old Captains in their cockpits, including European pilots. They grease the landings and brake very gently on roll out, using the whole length of the runway to slow down. By comparison Southwest Airlines (Southworst Scarelines) pilots do assault landings, planting the aircraft hard on the numbers and standing on the brakes so hard they make noise so they can turn off the runway at the turn out, not that the plane has slowed down all that much when they veer off the runway still hard on the brakes. I never see Chinese airlines do that nonsense. After one such flight with Southworst (my employer makes me use them) I busted the chops of their pilots asking them if they were former C-130 pilots. They were. Then I asked them if they get paid a bonus if they can slow the plane down enough to make the first turn off from the runway. Ooh, they didn't like that comment. Oh yeah, China Eastern has good food too, though spicy (even breakfast was spicy !)

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

Simply NOT a fact. My previous comment was censored but there is no independant evidence at all of anything close to a genocide.

Yes there is. Read and learn.

https://newlinesinstitute.org/uyghurs/the-uyghur-genocide-an-examination-of-chinas-breaches-of-the-1948-genocide-convention/

4 ( +5 / -1 )

@Desert Tortoise sad your employer makes you take Southworst. I will never fly on them. As for the 8700 aircraft, that seems like a lot. I thought China was going for high speed rail.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

The Boeing report will add incentive for China to ramp up its own airliner manufacturing industry, since it already has acquired the necessary technology from Boeing.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

The Boeing report will add incentive for China to ramp up its own airliner manufacturing industry, since it already has acquired the necessary technology from Boeing.

The slow and spotty progress developing the Comac C919 seems to suggest otherwise. Boeing only does final assembly, the interior and check out in China. Most of the fabricating is accomplished in the US with big components shipped to China for final assembly. Neither China nor Russia have the ability to manufacture a modern high bypass turbofan engine comparable to western designs, or any kind of jet engine that is as long lasting and durable as average western jet engines. Their understanding of material science just isn't there and the major western engine manufactures are not sharing. The big Russian turbofans are much more sensitive to throttle changes and must be handled with great care to prevent compressor stalls, making them more difficult to fly safely than western designs who's modern digital controls make them almost impossible to stall.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

 I thought China was going for high speed rail.

Did you see that passengers on the high speed rail line in Tibet have to wear oxygen masks because the elevations are so great !

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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