business

BOJ chief economist says Japan likely to shift to expansionary phase

20 Comments
By Stanley White

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Interesting that they expect 0.4% economic growth when just last month ZeroHedge was reporting a bigger-than-expected collapse in Japanese retail sales:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-28/japan-retail-sales-plunge-most-ever-base-effect-widespread-economic-weakness

The Cabinet Office will release the data on Wednesday.

Is this the same office that's been cooking the books on wage growth data?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-03/japan-admits-fabricating-2014-wage-growth-data

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Japan can continue to exceed its potential growth rate, which is from zero to 0.5%,

And this is cause for celebration? China is "slowing" to like 7.5%. Amazing how thse BOJ guys can make relatively terrible performance sound great.

-5 ( +4 / -9 )

when your companies are supported by the government, you can achieve growth over 7%, jerseyboy.

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Japan’s economy is expected to have grown 0.4% in January-March, unchanged from the prior quarter, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The Cabinet Office will release the data on Wednesday.

And this is of course about 1/4 the growth that Abenomics was supposed to deliver. Worse yet, growth numbers almost never meet predictions, and are almost universally revised lower once the full figures are received.

Japan can continue to exceed its potential growth rate, which is from zero to 0.5%, as household spending and consumer sentiment improve,

In an economy which is losing hundreds of thousands of consumers each year to population decline, zero to 0.5% growth is unrealistic, let along exceeding these numbers, particularly when taxes are being raised.

If I were a private banker or trader, and was using such math to convince consumers to invest in my services or funds, I could be punished for misleading them. But when our politicians and central bankers do the same thing, not only are they not punished, they are reelected or reappointed.

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"slowly recovering from a surprise recession last year"

"Surprise"? Only to those who don't understand how stimulus is supposed to work. I predicted the tax hike would hit growth hard. So did many others, like Krugman.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

print more yen!!

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Noble713May. 19, 2015 - 09:02AM JST

Is this the same office that's been cooking the books on wage growth data?

It's very worrying that the first quarter expectant Japanese GDP figures, which were meant to come out at 8.50 am today, have not been released.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

when your companies are supported by the government, you can achieve growth over 7%, jerseyboy.

nakanoguy01 -- agreed. So what then is Japan's problem? I mean Abe has weakened the yen by around 20% and Japanese tariffs and import restrictions are legendary. So how come the growth is less than .5%?

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

when your companies are supported by the government, you can achieve growth over 7%, jerseyboy.

You can also achieve 7% growth if you completely trash your economy and society with a civil war and decades of insane communist rule, and then start from zero. It's not difficult to do, but also completely irrelevant in relation to Japan and every other country on the planet.

Japan is still slowly recovering from a surprise recession last year

A "surprise" recession. Yeah, just like the recession after the 3% consumption tax was first introduced was a "surprise". And like the recession after the hike from 3% to 5% was a "surprise". And like the recession after the tax is hiked to 10% will be a "surprise". Amateurs

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

Gary Raynor.

It's very worrying that the first quarter expectant Japanese GDP figures, which were meant to come out at 8.50 am today, have not been released.

Whoops.. thought it was Wednesday. That's what a holiday does to you.

GDP figures are out tomorrow at 8:50 and I am certain they'll be bad.

-4 ( +0 / -4 )

The BOJ is likely to meet its goal of guiding inflation to 2 percent in the first half of fiscal 2016 so there is no need to ease policy further now, Maeda also said

...........Well I might as well run down to the beach stick my toe in the ocean and guess the temperature...

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GDP figures are out tomorrow at 8:50 and I am certain they'll be bad

i think so but later on say after two weeks they will revise it upward.

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Sangetsu03....nice wit.

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Expansionary phase?

http://ieconomics.com/japan-consumer-spending

http://ieconomics.com/japan-gdp-annual-growth-rate

Kuroda must be thinking of the Japan in Dimension X. Anemic growth, while better than nothing, is hardly "expansionary".

The government has done next to nothing to foster growth. The decision to raise the consumption tax was reckless, and poorly timed. Ward offices, and the federal government still impose a large number of taxes on business, individuals and families.

Without better, robust, income growth, and lower taxes, whatever growth Japan experiences will be meager at best.

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until til the next hike in 2017, and it may go down the toilet again

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"If I were a private banker or trader, and was using such math to convince consumers to invest in my services or funds, I could be punished for misleading them."

"Punished"?!? Are you joking? You'd be bailed out by Washington, as what actually happened. A vast range of hedge funds and other products in the 2000s missed their advertised target returns by a long, long shot.

Those "punished" were the individual investors. I know, because I bought a couple of such products! The IFAs and fund managers raked in their multi-layered fees and commissions nevertheless.

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JeffLee May. 20, 2015 - 06:12AM JST A vast range of hedge funds and other products in the 2000s missed their advertised target returns by a long, long shot. Those "punished" were the individual investors.

Hedge fund failures have stemmed mainly from errors that were not of their own making. Because banks have mismanaged themselves so thoroughly, they have had to mobilize capital by calling in loans to hedge funds, forcing the funds to sell off positions precipitously. Forced sales have driven down the value of the hedge funds remaining holdings, undermining their creditworthiness and triggering a further calling in of loans, further forced sales, and further losses. This vicious circle has caused a few funds to go bust. But the trigger was subprime losses in the regulated banking system.

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I wish the bank of Japan would share whatever they are smoking with the rest of us. It might help us forget how miserable Japan's economy is.

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"GDP figures are out tomorrow at 8:50 and I am certain they'll be bad."

You are badly wrong, once again. 2.4% annualized growth massively beats expectations.

sjp330 "Hedge fund failures have stemmed mainly from errors that were not of their own making."

Except the huge number who gave their portion of their funds to Madoff. MAN, the biggest alternative investment firm, did this. And they got bank loans? What about the principle they collected from the investors? Clearly, they headed into risk levels they couldnt handle. Its their fault.

The point made by the free marketeer poster was that if bankers or fund managers make mistakes they are punished. Nothing could be further from the truth. Not a single wall street firm would be alive today if not for the govt bailout. and none were arrested.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

JeffLeeMay. 20, 2015 - 11:03AM JST

You are badly wrong, once again. 2.4% annualized growth massively beats expectations.

Wow! you thinking that 2.4% growth in the last quarter of a fiscal year, where the economy actually shrank by 1%, really says a lot about your thinking.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

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