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China cuts key mortgage reference rate as COVID bites

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Unfortunately the CCP is so invested on keeping their appearance of infallibility that the obvious measure that could prevent the negative effect on their economy (replacing the zero covid policy with alternatives that prevent hospitalizations, complications and deaths even better) is simply out of consideration, lets see how much this lasts.

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Prolonged virus lockdowns have constricted supply chains...

Hurting us all. Thanks, globalization. These days, whenever an authoritarian communist dictatorship sneezes, the West catches cold.

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Another stark indication zero policy doesn't work.

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I get what their central bank is trying to do but wonder if the demand for new housing is even there? There are already something on the order of 50 million newly built housing units sitting unsold. With their working age population declining since 2014 and now their overall population tipping into decline, does China need to build new homes? The building industry is 30% of the Chinese GDP so the CCP is anxious to prevent that industry from collapsing and dragging the rest of the economy down with it. The obvious tactic to move those unsold units is to lower their price, but doing so immediately reduces the market value of the units in those big high rises that have already been sold. That drives existing owners under water on their loans. There have been some angry protests at big housing estates when developers have tried to reduce the sale price on unsold units. We live in interesting times.

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Trump and Biden could only dream of hammering China this badly.

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PBC announces largest cut in 5-year LPR as China fast-tracks pro-growth policies.

China is managing its economic growth well in accordance with its projection, despite in this defining & critical time of global lethargic economy. 

Curb corruption to ensure a healthy growth..

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Unfortunately the CCP is so invested on keeping their appearance of infallibility that the obvious measure that could prevent the negative effect on their economy (replacing the zero covid policy with alternatives that prevent hospitalizations, complications and deaths even better) is simply out of consideration, lets see how much this lasts.

There is no validity to this "thought" since China is the only major country that has had positive growth during the whole Covid crisis. New Zealand went through a recession. The US keeps raising its rates; inflation is getting higher. We are experiencing first hand Japan's economic struggles.

venzeToday  11:17 am JST

PBC announces largest cut in 5-year LPR as China fast-tracks pro-growth policies.

China is managing its economic growth well in accordance with its projection, despite in this defining & critical time of global lethargic economy. 

Excellent points.

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There is no validity to this "thought" since China is the only major country that has had positive growth during the whole Covid crisis.

A growth that has been decreased thanks to the policy that is still unnecessary, no expert have said that China's economy is thanks to the policy, but in spite of it, and greatly reduced.

New Zealand went through a recession

Yes, again because of the zero covid policy and it was solved after abandoning it, it would be another argument against it. specially because death rates are lower than China, which demonstrate the zero covid policy can be surpassed in efficacy by more scientifically supported approaches.

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Does anyone still think zero covid works???

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A growth that has been decreased thanks to the policy that is still unnecessary, no expert have said that China's economy is thanks to the policy, but in spite of it, and greatly reduced.

Yet still growing. That is the point. New Zealand, on the other hand, had a recession.

And experts have said the growth is because of China's zero covid policy.

Cleared up that misunderstanding.

Yes, again because of the zero covid policy and it was solved after abandoning it, it would be another argument against it. specially because death rates are lower than China, which demonstrate the zero covid policy can be surpassed in efficacy by more scientifically supported approaches.

NZ. like Australia, experienced higher infection and death rates after easing zero covid policies. As the respective government statistics show.

Does anyone still think zero covid works???

What do you mean by "works"? Prevent over 1 million covid related deaths like in the US?

Then yes, it works.

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Yet still growing.

Only if you are gullible enough to believe official Chinese state statistics. For party cadre in any part of China to report anything less than positive economic growth is career ending. Those party cadre will make up figures that show positive growth if necessary to keep their current job and remain promotable. Beneath a municipal or regional party leader are a patronage army of lower level party cadre who are looking to promote with their patron. They will lie to protect him or her for their own self interest. There are no non governmental organizations doing unbiased economic analysis in China to hold public officials accountable. In a famous Wikileaks cable former Vice Premier Li Keqiang is quoted as saying China's economic data is "man made".

Without more transparency from China's National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, the academic community has been forced to rely on alternative measures to track Chinese GDP growth. One alternative measure is the change in energy consumption. As an emerging economy with a large manufacturing sector, China consumes a lot of energy. Changes in energy consumption may be a good proxy for changes in output because energy usage typically correlates with output and can be verified by data sources outside the Chinese government; as an input to manufacturing, energy also is a variable that China’s command economy statisticians were well-equipped to measure.

Economist Thomas Rawski studies Chinese GDP through the lens of energy use. He points out that between 1997 and 2000, official figures reported that Chinese real GDP grew 24.7 percent, yet energy consumption decreased 12.8 percent.5 The difference implies a 30 percent reduction in energy use during those years, which seems unlikely for an industrializing economy. Rawski bolsters this argument by comparing energy use in other Asian countries during their respective episodes of growth. Figure 2 highlights his results. In each case, even that of China during an earlier growth period, a double-digit increase in GDP is related with a double-digit increase in energy consumption. But for the 1997-2001 period, Chinese energy consumption declined despite GDP growing at a faster pace than in the 1987-91 period.

There are other alternative measures of China's growth that also strongly suggest China's GDP data is inflated. Look up what is called the "Luminosity Index". Don't believe China's official economic statistics. They are mostly fabrications.

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Yet still growing. That is the point. New Zealand, on the other hand, had a recession.

And that was thanks to the zero covid policy, which means it is by itself a negative influence on economic growth, after abandoning it they recovered from the recession, having a slower growth thanks to the policy is also an argument for the same, what you need is to demonstrate China would have grown less if it abandoned the policy at the same time as the rest of the countries (after the appearance of Delta variant), without that you have no argument.

And experts have said the growth is because of China's zero covid policy.

Only you have said that, you have never brought any reference of experts saying that.

NZ. like Australia, experienced higher infection and death rates after easing zero covid policies. As the respective government statistics show.

Same as China, even at similar times, does that means that the explosion of cases and deaths that china had is because it abandoned the zero covid policy? that is your whole argument.

And by the way, Australia and New Zealand have lower death rates than China after adjusting the reports to the same way China use to hide the real number.

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What do you mean by "works"?

Just my point. Your whole stance on this issue is:

•based on splitting and splicing semantics.

•choosing what to accept and blind sighting counter points.

•typing out hokey statistics from one of most suspect regimes in the world.

Prevent over 1 million covid related deaths like in the US?

How do you know 1 million covid deaths have been prevented? In fact, how do you know if anything you have written on the issue is accurate?

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Just my point. Your whole stance on this issue is: 

•based on splitting and splicing semantics.

No, based on the English language.

And that was thanks to the zero covid policy, which means it is by itself a negative influence on economic growth,

Wrong. New Zealand, unlike China, did not have a strong economy at the start of the crisis. China's economy, on the other hand, has been able to enjoy positive growth alongside with its zero covid policy. Sounds pretty successful.

Same as China, even at similar times, does that means that the explosion of cases and deaths that china had is because it abandoned the zero covid policy? that is your whole argument.

Wrong. New Zealand, even with its small population and less dense population than China, has a higher infection rate. Even higher than Australia and Canada.

And by the way, Australia and New Zealand have lower death rates than China after adjusting the reports to the same way China use to hide the real number.

The real number known by only you? Or the real number known by medical professionals, which shows China having the lowest covid death related rate in the world.

How do you know 1 million covid deaths have been prevented? In fact, how do you know if anything you have written on the issue is accurate?

Because the 1 million deaths in the US did not occur in China.

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No, based on the English language.

Not at all, if the argument opposing you is correct and valid it does not matter if one specific word is used or just a synonym. Pretending the meaning can only be reached by one single word means you already gave up trying to defeat the argument.

Wrong. New Zealand, unlike China, did not have a strong economy at the start of the crisis.

That would support the opposite of your conclusion, if a country did not have a strong economy it would be expected that it goes to the negative with a deeply damaging policy, and that it would recover after discarding it. China has seen an important slow of the growth by unnecessarily persisting in an strategy that do not give better results than in other countries.

Wrong. New Zealand, even with its small population and less dense population than China, has a higher infection rate. Even higher than Australia and Canada.

That does absolutely nothing to refute the fact that China had an explosion of cases and deaths around the same time, according to you that would prove China abandoned the zero covid policy.

The real number known by only you? Or the real number known by medical professionals, which shows China having the lowest covid death related rate in the world.

The real number is being hidden by China, as proved by the repeatedly referenced reports from experts including Chinese ones, adapting the numbers of the rest of the countries is easily done by counting only the deaths where no other disease was present in the victims, you could do it in the same way, except that you refuse because it proves China is doing worse than a couple dozen other countries.

Because the 1 million deaths in the US did not occur in China.

The deaths did not happen either in other countries that also controlled the burden from the pandemic without having to trample human rights, destroy the local economy nor deeply affecting health services.

Repeatedly trying to compare China only with the worse examples you can find proves you yourself understand it is actually doing much worse than countries that have done better without the zero covid policy. Is like saying something is safe because is not as toxic as cyanide.

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But the question is, concerning China's zero covid policy:

How do you know 1 million covid deaths have been prevented? In fact, how do you know if anything you have written on the issue is accurate?

Answer if you like. Answer if you can. But I think you can't. Waiting in anticipation...

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So if I answer, that means you accept my answer as correct right?

Still waiting in anticipation.

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This makes no sense.

An appeal to ignorance is a very poor argument, it means you recognize you have been proved mistaken and have nothing to defend your argument.

Wrong. You have to define "explosion". Because Shanghai was in the news for having 4500 new cases one day, while Tokyo had around 420o the same day;

The explosive increment refers to the same place, which is the same context you are using for other countries, Else New Zealand would not have any either because other countries were having more cases in the same days, right?

China had a huge increment of cases and deaths not only in Shanghai but before than in Hong Kong, does that means China abandoned the zero covid policy? If not that means you are recognizing other causes (like Omicron introduction) can be the cause also for other countries.

Another hyperbolic attempt at an analogy. Gave up on the seatbelts and now moving on to cyanide?

It is a valid comparison that demonstrate your comparison works more against your own argument than for it. That you choose to pretend countries more successfully dealing with both the economy and the pandemic do not exist means they do demonstrate the Chinese strategy as flawed. Else you could include them without problem.

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