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Economists predict coronavirus job fallout will be greater than Lehman shock

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Time to find a new job for many...me included!

20 ( +22 / -2 )

Best of luck, Kurisupisu. I hope the recovery will come soon, and that you are eligible for employment insurance in the meantime.

12 ( +14 / -2 )

Universal Benefits on the horizon? Not good but homeless increases otherwise...

5 ( +9 / -4 )

Economists predict coronavirus job fallout will be greater than Lehman shock

If these lockdowns continue much longer, that is a given.

8 ( +13 / -5 )

Our favorite site JT could have issues as well. Advertisers will definitely pull out. Fine limousines, escorts, language schools, teaching English in Japan etc. Before and hopefully it does not happen I want to thank the JT staff for the great work they have done and hopefully will continue to do, even if I am off topic sometimes.

3 ( +15 / -12 )

Look at all those people in the photo walking right next to one another foolishly believing they are safe because they are wearing a mask. Nearly everybody in Japan is wearing a mask 24/7. However, the new cases of the virus jumped from 6,000 to over 20,000 in just two weeks with over 500 cases last weekend alone. Isn’t that enough to convince people that wearing a mask does stuff all to protect them from the virus? They need to stay away from each other and stay home. Stuff the economy! How’s the economy going to fair when the number of cases are in the hundreds of thousands? - Which is only a few weeks away at the current rate of infection.

0 ( +12 / -12 )

We’ll see lots of people out of work and, at least at my company non payment of bonuses for the next 10 yrs due to the coronavirus. Heck my company still uses the Lehman shock to not give us pay raises 12 yrs after the fact.

15 ( +17 / -2 )

you can unilaterally change the length of a contract in the middle of it?

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Economists predict coronavirus job fallout will be greater than Lehman shock

No worries. Japan will make sure to cover that up too. They will do like usual, make sure not to get reliable data on the unemployment rate. No data means no problem.

8 ( +12 / -4 )

Shinzo Abe will probably resign at the very worst moment of the pandemic economic depression. Japan will economically devastated by that time.

5 ( +10 / -5 )

Don't need to be an expert to see this one coming.

11 ( +12 / -1 )

And most of this is because governments are failing to do what's necessary. Germany, Denmark, South Korea, New Zealand... all leaders, and their countries will suffer less for it. The US? England? Japan? all have been trying to keep things going "as normal" as much as possible and exposing people, making it worse, and refuse to give out STRICT nationwide crackdowns, much like Italy and Spain did. Now the US is leading the world in infections and deaths, and yet when states like Florida see the biggest spike in infection, THE SAME DAY they reopen beaches. THAT is why the economy is going to suffer far worse than if they were not taking strong measures and realising it's for the best in the long term.

-2 ( +11 / -13 )

Xeno Man: "Shinzo Abe will probably resign at the very worst moment of the pandemic economic depression. Japan will economically devastated by that time."

Abe won't resign until his personal mission to change article 9 of the Constitution is achieved. That said, I can see him twisting things and declaring he can do it because he has the power in this emergency, and that it's also necessary to help the nation's defense and bolster the military and its status in case the situation degrades. After that, he'll resign.

0 ( +7 / -7 )

I believe the herds have happened already and things will get better.

-10 ( +4 / -14 )

They need to stay away from each other and stay home. Stuff the economy! 

Clueless comment. Some of us need to work to earn, you know, money.

-3 ( +7 / -10 )

Do the hustle:

Look at all those people in the photo walking right next to one another foolishly believing they are safe because they are wearing a mask.

How do you know they think "they are safe"? Did you ask them? I thought everybody knows that masks act as a brake, i.e. they reduce the transmission of viruses, not prevent it completely. Including the people in the photo.

But a reduction, i.e. a brake, is all that is needed. No door lock is 100% safe, no wall is unclimbable, but door locks and walls act make trespassing harder. Same for masks. A brake is all that is needed.

-8 ( +3 / -11 )

How do you know they think "they are safe"? Did you ask them? I thought everybody knows that masks act as a brake, i.e. they reduce the transmission of viruses, not prevent it completely. Including the people in the photo.

Yep. I’ve never come across a Japanese person who thinks masks protect them completely.

A bit condescending towards Japanese people. I know ( and they know ) many have a tendency to run with the herd, but they aren’t stupid.

0 ( +6 / -6 )

Japan will be using the coronavirus as the excuse for all of their poor economic and business decisions for the next 20 years. Like other folks have noted, Japanese people in 2020 are still blaming Lehman shock for their financial problems.

8 ( +13 / -5 )

"Your job ends in three days' time," a woman employed on a temporary contract for the front desk of a Tokyo hotel was told by her boss in early April.

Well, this is critical but she can apply support from govt. ( labor ministry) when company or owner dismiss the contract. It's not her fault, it's from the govt. and Tokyo municipality to decrease guests, even it is for everyone life.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

The economic impact is not unrelated to Trump and his Trade War with China. This is what they mean that China will fight back. It’s not the bat or the wet markets for there are no bats in the market or in the area and no “accident” from the Institute of Virology. This is the result of the Trade War for which the CCP mainly and Trump are responsible.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

Whoever is PM of Japan is of no consequence.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

The Lehman shock was just a little foreshock. This is the real thing coming. A lot of people have been expecting this since Lehman, because absolutely nothing was done to address the root problems. It was just covered up with lots of free money given to already wealthy people. Like a wound that's allowed to fester, it eventually becomes something much worse. Coronavirus was just the trigger. The crash was coming soon one way or another.

It's not going to get better soon, and people need to think outside the box to survive. Job hunting is probably not the best way to go about it. There won't be many jobs, except those with very little pay. Make your own jobs - the easy days are over.

8 ( +10 / -2 )

The so called Lehman fallout was mainly in financial sector and the the US goverment eventually bailed them out(/w taxpayers money of course)

This pandemic has destroy numerous business, crippled airline companies, and paralyzed societies wherever it spread. It's the worst crisis since ww2. We may even call it ww3..

4 ( +5 / -1 )

The debt will have to be reset. Historically that is done by war or overthrowing the government. Even in Japan, the young may eventually rebel at the ever higher taxes and ever fading good jobs.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

They need to stay away from each other and stay home. Stuff the economy! 

@No Business - Clueless comment. Some of us need to work to earn, you know, money.

Clueless? Those who put economics before personal health are the clueless ones. Japan’s Covid-19 cases have more than tripled from 6,000 to over 20,000 in the past two weeks. What’ll it be in another two weeks? 60,000+? Yeah, you have to go to work to get money. What a selfish and clueless comment that is.

-6 ( +3 / -9 )

''nonu6976Today 05:20 pm JST

you can unilaterally change the length of a contract in the middle of it?''

This is Japan, some companies do whatever they want. My past experience was they just say 'suck it.' and invite you to take them them to court with a plan to 'starve you out'.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Are u sure these are economists ???. worst than lehman shock ???.This is a virus , wake up. God what are people thinking ???.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

We are half way into this "emergency" and now public "opinion" is slowly being turned to the economy.

This month is "stay home"

Next month "Go spend"

Could have just saved jobs and time by not declaring an emergency in the first place but…

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

The debt will have to be reset. Historically that is done by war or overthrowing the government. Even in Japan, the young may eventually rebel at the ever higher taxes and ever fading good jobs.

A few economists I read have been referring to this as the "great reset" for several years now. We knew it was coming, just not exactly when or how. There is no way we can tax future generations into oblivion - as you say, they will rebel. Or just leave for greener pastures, wherever they may be in 10 years.

That's the conceit that has allowed Japan to raise the consumption tax - "to pay off the debt." There is in fact no way to pay off the debt - it's too far gone in most developed Western countries and Japan, among other places. I hope war is mostly avoided. It will likely be a collapse, like the USSR. Or perhaps massive inflation is enough to eliminate the debt, though that will also eliminate savings of those who were careful enough to save. Or it could be a government ordered devaluation of the yen, like France did with the Franc in 1958. Old yen would be deemed worthless unless exchanged for new yen within a certain period of time. All the people hiding cash in their futon would have to bring it in to exchange for new yen, which might be exchanged at something like 400 yen to the US dollar (assuming that is worth anything at that point). All old yen debts would suddenly be 75% cheaper to pay off.

All this sounds fantastic now, but we are just at the beginning of this collapse. This has happened many times before, and people almost always thought it was inconceivable that their currency would collapse.

Please be prepared. If you don't have enough non-cash assets, make sure you have a marketable skill or product that will sell even in bad times. It's not going to be easy for any of us. But it will be harder for people who think the normal way of doing things is coming back anytime soon.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

Abe won't resign until his personal mission to change article 9 of the Constitution is achieved. That said, I can see him twisting things and declaring he can do it because he has the power in this emergency, and that it's also necessary to help the nation's defense and bolster the military and its status in case the situation degrades. After that, he'll resign.

By that time, I fear his economy is too ruined to fund any militarization effort. Not to mention his JSDF personnels could die or be disabled in droves as . The worst of the pandemic has yet to come. Most economists now agreed that this depression will be worse than the 2008 Great Recession. Japan was unprepared for it since the tax hike.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

I'm not sure one needs to be an economist to predict this . . .

2 ( +2 / -0 )

@carpslidy....I disagree. We don't even really know what this virus does long term (re-infection of those with antibodies is not good just for a heads up.)

What do you mean 'half way through' BTW?

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Im quite sure these people dont think they are "safe".

They are just weighing their need to stay employed and their need for money to eat and have a place to live against the actual chance they will catch coronavirus (pretty low) and the chance it will kill them (even lower).

That 100,000 yen and 2 masks wont do much.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

@Spinning plates

I mean halfway through the emergency declaration.

I can't see stay at home measures continuing past mid may at the latest.

Businesses cant afford to stay closed, the government has already maxed out and discontent will grow

For whatever reason Japan isn't New york or I taly so the calculation economic impact vs health benefit is clearly different to other countries.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Doesn't seem to be that bad there, and business as usual with japan inc. But exactly how are some foreign nationals still able to live there without a job (considering you are not homeless like some I know) is beyond me.

To the commentors mentioning about abe not resigning until the constitution being changed to go to war are exactly correct. seems like that is their prime motivation, and possibly the reason the government not wanting to pay out money to help people during the situation. definitely and agenda going on between that and the olympic efforts and cover ups.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

The economic impact is not unrelated to Trump and his Trade War with China. This is what they mean that China will fight back. It’s not the bat or the wet markets for there are no bats in the market or in the area and no “accident” from the Institute of Virology. This is the result of the Trade War for which the CCP mainly and Trump are responsible.

@quercetum - If your claim is true that China released this in retaliation for Trump's trade war (which is absurd on its own), then blaming Trump for the virus is like blaming the girl who broke up with the boy who went crazy and shot up a shopping mall for the deaths of those who he killed.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Some are not gonna make it while others will boom, if you are struggling look around there are other opportunities presenting themselves, go for it.

Stop thinking in the box, 9 to 5 is done sitting in an office , it was done in 2008 and is over done now , take the chance step out move forward , its bad but it also the time for new growth and new life.

Some are prospering now while others are fading !

Wake up !

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

The world does not need overpaid economists.

Most of the quarantinists can predict the same for free.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Are u sure these are economists ???. worst than lehman shock ???.This is a virus , wake up. God what are people thinking ???.

Much worse that the Lehman Shock.

Look at what happened to USA unemployment in just a month.

In retrospect, the financial crisis of 2008 was probably a good thing because if it happened then, then it would also have occurred now. The combined impact would have been devastating.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Ah_so said "In retrospect, the financial crisis of 2008 was probably a good thing because if it happened then, then it would also have occurred now. The combined impact would have been devastating."

What kind of logic is that ? If one believes you, then there should be no humanity because we would suffer none.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

@carpslidy, OK your using about May 6th as the end game?

Well, I really hope so.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Stop thinking in the box, 9 to 5 is done sitting in an office , it was done in 2008 and is over done now

So it was ‘done’ in 2008 and it’s ‘over done’ in 2020? Whatever that means, it sounds bad.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

@spinning plates

I hope so too.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Be far worse and no cure for the economic impact of covid19 . Tourism will take years to recover and sorry Japan Olympics may not be attended even next year. Everything will stop soon and all supply chains for everything you use. Prepare for worse and be hopeful the best happens.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

My message to world

HANG TOUGH and NEVER BE DEFEATED !

this is one of those things in life that may be threatening but be assured EVERYTHING IN LIFE IS TEMPORARY.

No matter how bad or how good its melds to a new future. Take time to help those in need or may not be as strong as you. Assure those depressed it will pass. You are only here for a grain of sand in time so make best of every day. Reemeber those things that made you happy as a child as they are still there for you and does not need money to enjoy.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

True, you don't need money to enjoy. You do need it if you like to eat and have a roof over your head.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

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