business

Economists survey: 34% expect a U.S. recession in 2021

12 Comments

A number of U.S. business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Donald Trump's economic policies that they expect a recession in the U.S. by the end of 2021.

Thirty-four percent of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report released Monday, said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. That's up from 25% in a survey taken in February. Only 2% of those polled expect a recession to begin this year, while 38% predict that it will occur in 2020.

The economists have previously expressed concern that Trump's tariffs and higher budget deficits could eventually dampen the economy.

The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on goods from many key U.S. trading partners — from China and Europe to Mexico and Canada. Officials maintain that the tariffs, which are taxes on imports, will help the administration gain more favorable terms of trade. But U.S. trading partners have simply retaliated with tariffs of their own.

Trade between the U.S. and China, the two biggest global economies, has plunged. Trump decided last Wednesday to postpone until Dec. 15 tariffs on about 60% of an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports — granting a reprieve from a planned move that would have extended duties to nearly everything the U.S. buys from China.

The financial markets signaled the possibility of a U.S. recession last week, adding to concerns over the ongoing trade tensions and word from Britain and Germany that their economies are shrinking

The economists surveyed by the NABE were skeptical about prospects for success of the latest round of U.S.-China trade negotiations. Only 5% predicted that a comprehensive trade deal would result, 64% suggested a superficial agreement was possible, and nearly one quarter expected nothing to be agreed upon by the two countries.

The 226 respondents, who work mainly for corporations and trade associations, were surveyed between July 14 and Aug. 1. That was before the White House announced 10% tariffs on the additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, the Chinese currency dipped below the seven-yuan-to-$1 level for the first time in 11 years, and the Trump administration formally labeled China a currency manipulator.

As a whole, the business economists' recent responses have represented a rebuke of the Trump administration's overall approach to the economy.

Still, for now, most economic signs appear solid. Employers are adding jobs at a steady pace, the unemployment rate remains near a 50-year low, and consumers are optimistic. U.S. retail sales figures out last Thursday showed that they jumped in July by the most in four months.

The survey showed a steep decline in the percentage of economists who found the $1.5 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade "too stimulative" and likely to produce higher budget deficits that should be reduced, to 51% currently from 71% in August 2018.

© Copyright 2019 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

©2019 GPlusMedia Inc.

12 Comments
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You can expect to see almost daily articles like this in the mainstream media over the next year as they try to convince people not to re-elect President Trump. It’s similar to the nonstop fake news over the pad two years about the Russian “collusion” conspiracy theory.

-2 ( +4 / -6 )

You can expect to see almost daily articles like this in the mainstream media over the next year as they try to convince people not to re-elect President Trump. It’s similar to the nonstop fake news over the pad two years about the Russian “collusion” conspiracy theory.

That was proven true! LOL!

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Not surprising or unusual, as the US economy is on its longest expansion in history. US consumers, whose spending accounts for 70% of GDP, still seem pretty confident, so I'm on the bullish side.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

"If the economy goes into recession, it will be Bill Maher's fault. It will be the fake media's fault. Not mine. No way. I don't do fault, responsibility, blame, none of that. Accountability's for losers. Bigly. Soooooo sad."

0 ( +1 / -1 )

America got the President they deserved.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

America got the President they deserved.

We certainly deserve a lot after being bamboozled by Obama.

And oh man, did we ever dodge a bullet when that corrupt warmonger was defeated in 2016.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

"Trade wars are easy to win."

0 ( +1 / -1 )

"If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor."

0 ( +1 / -1 )

The recession will come before that.Trump's easy to win trade wars is going to be his downfall, that even his cracker supporters will realize his constant bluffing,blinking and then backing down has sent the economy into a nosedive, taking everyone else's too.It will be his election Waterloo.And yippee! No pain,no gain they say.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

America got the President they deserved.

Despite the fact more American voters voted for his opponent than for him?

0 ( +0 / -0 )

"Health care prices and insurance costs will go down."

Mine are up almost 4x higher.

A slight downturn in the economy is common for 2nd term Presidents the year after the election.

In years one and two of a presidential term, the President exits campaign mode and works hard to fulfill campaign promises before the next election begins. It is theorized that because of these circumstances surrounding the President's work, the first year after their election is the weakest of the presidential term, with the second year being not much better.

If Trump wants to help the economy, can should use the Presidential pulpit to push Congress and the States to ratify the Congressional Term Limits Constitutional Amendment that 5 Republican sponsors submitted to Congress last January.

House: https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-joint-resolution/20

Senate: https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-joint-resolution/1

This would bring many more new people into elections. This was one of Trump's campaign promises, but the US President isn't part of the US Amendment process except to provide light on it. He doesn't sign anything.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

You can expect to see almost daily articles like this in the mainstream media over the next year as they try to convince people not to re-elect President Trump.

i,ll agree with that. many desperate people in American MM.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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