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Fears mount for China's economy as leaders dig in on zero-COVID

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What i want to know is why these so called exerts care if china has high economic growth or not. The only reason why they are complaining is because they are losing money in the stocks and due to all their investment in china.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

The restrictions could carry "quite high" costs if expanded nationwide, while offering only "limited" benefits as the hard-to-contain Omicron strain may trigger lockdowns in more cities, said Ting Lu, Nomura's chief China economist.

This is particularly important because other countries that have adopted a much more scientifically supported stance after the variants became predominant have managed to get better results without the need to sacrifice the economy (and make a mess of the public health services) which in the long term can cost even more lives.

China had a chance to follow countries like New Zealand and Australia, that used a zero COVID policy when it was an effective way of containment but switched to a more flexible and effective way of control after the Delta variant appeared. For reasons only known to the CCP they let this chance go and are now furiously holding to an outdated and inefficient way of dealing with the pandemic, and with a vulnerable population that refuses to be vaccinated with the locally produced (and less effective) vaccine.

4 ( +7 / -3 )

The rest of the world realized zero COVID was a failure a year ago and Omicron part 2 is quite harmless.

Seems like they’re trying to isolate themselves from the world.

6 ( +9 / -3 )

China's economy has been the only one among with positive gains the last two years.

China had a chance to follow countries like New Zealand and Australia, that used a zero COVID policy when it was an effective way

Simple research shows that it was New Zealand and Australia that followed China's elimination strategy.

And when NZ and Australia eased the restrictions, the infection and covid related death rates skyrocketed.

China has the lowest infection and related deaths rates in the world.

-6 ( +3 / -9 )

Enormous blunder. This is what happens when leadership and policies go unchallenged in a dictatorship.

5 ( +7 / -2 )

At some point Xi will feel compelled to turn off social media. That won't go down well.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

At some point Xi will feel compelled to turn off social media. That won't go down well.

Oh, that's only part of the end goal mate. Xi's plan is to bifurcate the internet - essentially sever the Chinese internet from the rest of the world. They've already achieved a degree of this with the Great Firewall of China, but the end goal is complete bifurcation of the internet.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

The only reason people care about Chinas economy is because advanced nations and large corporations have depended upon Chinas strong GDP growth and cheap labor to support their own ambitions. That dependency won’t go away easily. This is cost of driving business out of your country to communist nations. Reap what you sow.

9 ( +10 / -1 )

The times where china could brag about being in control of the pandemic are long gone, by entrenching themselves into old ways that can't contain omicron they are digging their own grave. If the humiliation of seeing themselves being surpassed now by countries that before could not do anything about it.

The only good part is that this time the damage is only internal, the rest of the world should take notice and use this chance to distance themselves and let the chinese economy deal with the consequences of letting their people lose their health and lives with bad policies.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

geronimo:

Enormous blunder.

Where's the blunder?

CNBC 2022/04/28: Gross domestic product in the U.S. declined at a 1.4% pace in the first quarter, below analyst expectations of a 1% gain.

UK Office for National Statistics 2022/04/11: Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1% in February 2022, following 0.8% growth in January 2022.

Reuters 2022/04/14: China GDP growth seen at 5.0% in 2022, 5.2% in 2023

1 ( +2 / -1 )

China's economic growth has been just fine, and the only complaints I have really seen about Zero Covid are from "expats". Anecdotally, all my Chinese friends in China still support the policy, they just don't think it was executed quickly enough in Shanghai, resulting in the situation we have now. Which is a perfectly fair criticism, the action in Shanghai was far too slow.

China's government has brandished the strategy as proof that it values human life above material concerns and can avert the public health crises seen in other countries.

Most important point from the article. All the hemming and hawing about the economy and the inconvenience of having to stay at home while you get food delivered to you doesn't mean much when the government policy is saving lives. When some western countries have over a million dead, there's not much room for them to talk. With the population density of China, one can only imagine the devastation if they were not so strict.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

What i want to know is why these so called exerts care if china has high economic growth or not. The only reason why they are complaining is because they are losing money in the stocks and due to all their investment in china.

Exactly. I do not have much sympathy for them either since they were not entirely honest with regards to the coronavirus situation

1 ( +2 / -1 )

A new technique to keep the police in lockdown areas of China has become popular. https://youtu.be/IwK4rSVN3mw

People are tested almost daily and get notified by phone if they are positive. Phone scams are huge in China, so if you get told your test is positive, be certain to go and visit the local police station to report the scam. Now, the police station (and everyone inside) will be on lockdown too! Brilliant.

The local Chinese Aunties need to visit their local CCP-food distribution center to ensure food meant to be provided to people living in the lockdown area is actually be distributed and not repackaged by the local CCP to be sold.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Fears mount for China's economy as leaders dig in on zero-COVID

Don't care. the sooner we decouple from China the better.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Mass testing of China's vast population could bring fresh misery to the economy....................... How do you make an economy miserable, does it have feelings?

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Anecdotally, all my Chinese friends in China still support the policy, they just don't think it was executed quickly enough in Shanghai,

Mama and half my family live in Shanghai. They are depressed and afraid. Mama is old and if she has a problem she cannot get to a doctor. My brother in law there is the only family member with a car but he is confined to his condo complex. Normally he would take Mama to a doctor or to the hospital. She is afraid to get in a vehicle with any stranger and afraid of what happens to her if she tests positive. No one in the family can help her because everyone is locked down. She has trouble getting one of her prescriptions too. We can't send her things from here because shipping a box of stuff to China can take four to six months now. We have always bought her things she can't buy in China and shipped them there but now we can't, and even if we could put up with the months it takes to send anything there the prices to ship things are out of this world. The situation in Shanghai is FUBAR. It is out of control and people are angry and depressed.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Anecdotally, all my Chinese friends in China still support the policy, they just don't think it was executed quickly enough in Shanghai

If you do not support, please tell us what happens ?

That is the difference between a democracy and a dictatorship : not everyone shall have the same idea as the leader.

I fight against this attitude of being sheepish and think what I buy has no impact on the world. It has.

I don't like people to suffer uselessly. Do you ever think leaders will be put into confinement ? You have your answers.

It reminds me of a French company owner I heard on radio who was praising his Chinese employees of the plant site of his Chinese subsidiary who had been working and living inside their offices for over a month nearby Beijing. He had not visited them for over 2 years...

Cheap slave labor, high earnings.

Who cares about employees whose only given intent in life is to produce ? (Ironic statement !)

1 ( +2 / -1 )

New Zealand entire population counts 4,893,897 as of Tuesday, May 3, 2022.

Shanghai 24.890,000, zero Covid is not remotely feasible.

The practicable short term challenges will out way any long term viable aspirations.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

China government cares about its people more than capitalism.

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

This is the fault of certain people in western countries.

Yes I did say that.

Why? Simple, China is going this route because of all the insane and still persistent rumours that Covid was created in Chinese labs and accusations it covered it all up. ( Often repeated by regular members of this comment section).

So China is not going to give the west even the most remote chance to again accuse it of more.

So now it again cannot win as it is now being criticized for being too harsh.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

Don't care. the sooner we decouple from China the better.

The people of China need and deserve our compassion.

The CCP-Govt is completely different. They need to swalllow their pride, change direction, and use a more sensible policy that doesn't make people go hungry or reward local CCP-councils for stealing food. The CCP fraud, where it exists, needs to stop.

The Chinese govt announcing over the local loudspeaker system that foreign "spies" are causing the dissent and food delivery issues is just crazy. They are desperate to deflect blame on things that don't exist. I seriously doubt the Chinese people think the CIA is behind them and all their neighbors deciding to bang on pots from their balconies whenever govt reps stand in the street.

Covid-Zero is a failed policy. Certainly worth a try, but it failed.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

At least one experienced China watcher is predicting Xi Jinping will not be re-elected to be CCP General Secretary and PRC President at the upcoming Party Congress in October. He mentions two things, one I knew about previously the 2017 PLA coup attempt against him that gave him the pretext to eliminate formal term limits for General Secretary and PRC President as well as eliminate the age limits on members of the Politburo so Xi could keep his aging loyalists in power, but the author also mentions another attempt to depose Xi in 2020.

It is well known that Xi's arrests of top party officials on charges of corruption has had the effect of stopping the promotion of the members of the patronage networks under those imprisoned leaders. Party members of necessity join factions within the party and as their patron promotes and advances within the party that opens opportunities for lower level members of that faction to likewise advance into more prestigious and better paying positions. Those lower level faction members are angry and resentful of Xi for arresting their patron and in turn, denying them advancement within government and the party. Xi has a great many enemies within the CCP. Here is the article. It is an interesting read.

https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/china-looks-ahead-to-20th-party-congress-in-2022/

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Another interesting article.

https://tfipost.com/2020/08/we-are-getting-isolated-chinas-pla-is-not-happy-with-xi-jinpings-antics-and-there-could-be-a-coup/

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Fears mount for China's economy as leaders dig in on zero-COVID:

Undoubtedly, the stringent policy has strained many Chinese, and jeopardized its economy to a large extent.

However, judging from the number of deaths worldwide, notably 65% in US & EU, China's is minimal.

That makes good sense..

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

The grim prediction follows a Fitch Ratings cut to its forecast for China's full-year economic growth to 4.3 percent, from 4.8 percent.

At the same time, China has seen positive economic growth during the entire Covid crisis, while another country that also used the zero covid policy, New Zealand, experienced a recession. NZ also saw its infection and related deaths rate zoom higher when that country eased restrictions.

A high percentage of the population sick and dying obviously is not healthy for the economy.

China is doing the right thing by limiting the number of infections and related deaths, and in turn, it still will experience positive economic growth.

venzeToday  11:51 am JST

Fears mount for China's economy as leaders dig in on zero-COVID:

Undoubtedly, the stringent policy has strained many Chinese, and jeopardized its economy to a large extent.

However, judging from the number of deaths worldwide, notably 65% in US & EU, China's is minimal. 

That makes good sense..

Exactly.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

At the same time, China has seen positive economic growth during the entire Covid crisis

A growth that is happening in spite of the measures not thanks to them, which is why the growth clearly decelerated after Hong Kong and Shanghai debacles.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/zero-covid-shanghai-comes-high-social-and-economic-costs

New Zealand, experienced a recession

New Zealand had a recession thanks to the zero covid policy, and had a recovery, specially after abandoning the outdated policy on 2022

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_Zealand

In early February 2022, the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) identified the country's border restrictions and declining house prices as the major risks to the New Zealand economy that year. While the OECD report credited New Zealand's elimination strategy, wage and socio-economic subsidies with helping the economy to bounce back to pre-pandemic levels

NZ also saw its infection and related deaths rate zoom higher when that country eased restrictions.

Half a year after easing restrictions, at similar times that China did, all well described as a product of the introduction of the Omicron strain (for both countries). The difference is that New Zealand never had disasters like in Hong Kong and Shanghai thanks to abandoning the zero covid policy in a timely manner.

When you can only claim success by comparing with the worst examples you can find, and try to ignore the examples that do better without hurting the economy and health services it means you already understand your point can be easily defeated by those examples.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

A growth that is happening in spite of the measures not thanks to them, which is why the growth clearly decelerated after Hong Kong and Shanghai debacles.

Right--an economic growth, and the lowest infection rate in the world. Not bad.

And in the English language "debacles" do not refer to a country having success with a government policy.

Look it up,

When you can only claim success by comparing with the worst examples you can find, and try to ignore the examples that do better without hurting the economy and health services it means you already understand your point can be easily defeated by those examples.

Or just make up scenarios, misinterpret graphs, and avoid the issues being discussed, like you.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Right--an economic growth, and the lowest infection rate in the world. Not bad.

I already demonstrated China do not have the lowest infection rate in the world, why would you repeat something that has been proved false? is it because you have no valid argument.

And in the English language "debacles" do not refer to a country having success with a government policy.

That is fine, because China is having a huge problem with their policy, giving worse results than other countries that do not need to subject their population to suspension of their human rights and impact the economy unnecessarily and still produce better results.

Or just make up scenarios, misinterpret graphs, and avoid the issues being discussed, like you.

The sources are there for anybody to check, making personal attacks instead of arguing against the arguments is against the rules of the site and also an invalid form or argument.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

virusrex and painkiller, please stop your daily bickering on virus and vaccine-related threads. No more comments today on these topics today, thanks.

Right--an economic growth, and the lowest infection rate in the world. Not bad

I would not believe Chinese economic or Covid-19 statistics. Careers within the CCP hinge on meeting goals set by the Politburo Standing Committee. Local cadre are motivated to lie and publish false statistics that make them look good (while taking a deep breath and hoping nothing outrageous happens to expose their lies). There is no free press or investigative journalism permitted in China to determine if these cadre are lying or not. In fact any attempt at investigative journalism is immediately punished. In addition the Chinese define deaths from Covid-19 very differently than the rest of the world. In China if a victim had multiple pre-existing medical conditions, caught Covid-19 and died, the death is not attributed to Covid-19 as it is in the US and other nations. That death would be attributed to one of the other conditions the victim suffered from. This is one of the ways the Chinese massage data to make their death rate look lower than it is. Especially early in the pandemic during the early lockdowns vast numbers of cases went undiagnosed and many died without ever determining what killed them, both of which act to make the Chinese infection and death rates appear lower than they are.

Chinese economic statistics are equally untrustworthy. Local cadres know that posting positive growth statistics gets them promoted to regional or even national level positions, thus greater prestige and fatter paychecks. It also enhances the stature of their faction of the party giving their high level patrons on the Central Committee more authority. They routinely lie to make their growth statistics look better than they are. That has been going on for decades. It is a fact of life in China. Again without investigative journalism there is no way to hold these local cadre accountable to the truth. If you question them you get sent to jail for "Picking quarrels and provoking trouble", and actual law in China and one most frequently used against government critics. It is a prison term of five years.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

The people of China need and deserve our compassion.

Those that oppose the CCP, yes. I agree. For those who think Winnie the Ping is the greatest thing since sliced bread (and there are ALOT of them) NO. Not at all.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

China had a chance to follow countries like New Zealand and Australia, that used a zero COVID policy when it was an effective way of containment but switched to a more flexible and effective way of control after the Delta variant appeared. 

Why would China want to follow Australia and New Zealand? What a strangely misinformed proclamation:

*Reported Covid infection rates in Australia are already among the highest in the world. As of data from 2 May, Australia’s average daily infection rate is 1,515 cases per million people – the second-highest in the world for countries with a population greater than 1 million, after New Zealand (1,566 cases per million).*

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/07/explainer-why-are-covid-infection-rates-in-australia-so-high-compared-to-other-countries

At Thursday's meeting -- attended by Xi -- the nation's top brass pledged to "resolutely fight against all words and deeds that distort, question or reject our nation's disease control policies".

Stay strong Xi. China's policy is being proven the best method to keep covid infection rates the lowest in the world.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Why would China want to follow Australia and New Zealand? What a strangely misinformed proclamation:

Several reasons come to mind.

The population and their human rights can be protected

The death rates are lower than in China once the way of counting is equalized

The public health system can function normally without causing deaths for their disruption

The economy do not need to be destroyed just because infections (without increase of deaths) is found.

China no longer have the lowest infection nor death rates against COVID and several other countries are better than it in every service that follows COVID numbers. Fears are mounting not for those countries economies but for China's.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

The population and their human rights can be protected

Protect the population by allowing more of them to die? That is protection of human rights where, Russia?

The economy do not need to be destroyed just because infections (without increase of deaths) is found.

China is the only country to have a positive economic growth during the crisis.

As the experts have said, countries that opted for an elimination strategy – including Australia, China, and South Korea – have gained control over the virus, leading to reduced uncertainty and the return of economic growth. Whereas most European countries have followed a stop-and-go logic based on reaction over anticipation.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Protect the population by allowing more of them to die? That is protection of human rights where, Russia?

That would be China, that has higher rates of COVID deaths, wild disruption of health services that also produce deaths, and destruction of the local economies everywhere an outbreak is found, China is allowing more people to die than other countries.

China is the only country to have a positive economic growth during the crisis.

And inspiring fears on experts because of it? that is the article you are commenting in. Every country that used the zero covid policy had a reduction of the growth, including China, other countries have recovered to prepandemic levels and keeping lower death rates thanks to better policies.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

China is allowing more people to die than other countries.

The US has over a million Covid related deaths, China has 5,000. Despite the relative population differences. Are you seriously arguing that economic disruption accounts for over a million additional deaths?

I won't argue that some countries have better results better results as a percentage of the population, but there aren't many and they are mostly isolated pacific islands.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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