Tokyo stocks to test further gains in 2025 amid global risks

But whether Tokyo stocks can reach new highs will hinge on the extent to which the next U.S. president's policies, in particular tariffs, affect Japanese companies, analysts say.

With pressure from Trump on Japanese vehicles, Toyota is going to face challenges. Honda and Nissan announced their merger, but Toyota, the last standing giant, is not joining.

Toyota has chosen to pivot towards electric vehicles. According to NHK, which I watch but still don’t pay, Toyota is starting operations at its new factory in Shanghai in 2027 to produce electric versions of Lexus models. What about Toyota going for hydrogen?

This shows clearly Toyota’s abandonment of its hydrogen energy dominance and its shift to electric vehicles, especially given the fierce competition in China, the world’s largest automobile market.

Toyota also announced that 95% of the components for these electric Lexus vehicles will come from Chinese suppliers, further embedding itself in China’s automotive supply chain. There is no decoupling from China in the integrated global bed the U.S. has built and now in which countries will lie.

Optimism doesn’t take account of facts.

Markets run on greed and fear.

Japan’s long term fundamentals are discouraging:a weakening yen,chronically worsening GDP,lack of regional investment,an older and frailer population,lack of domestic demand,no replacement population,regional conflicts etc.

Even though these forecasts are absolutely useless these “experts” who make them are very well paid meanwhile essential workers are paid close to the minimum wage.

While the dollar-yen rate is likely to have a limited impact on equities next year, an economic recovery at home is expected to make stocks attractive for investors, with Japan appearing finally to be on a path to realizing wage growth that outpaces inflation, analysts said.

Japanese firms offered historic increases at this year's annual pay talks, helping wages to outpace inflation in June for the first time in over two years. Wages also rose in July but turned negative in the following three months.

Real wages could stabilize in positive territory in 2025 as firms are expected to continue raising pay amid persistent labor shortages, according to economists.

This could not be more divorced from the reality of labor in Japan. But have to give some year end ganbaru propaganda to the proletariat!

The reality is the Nikkei is going gangbusters and 99.91% of the gains are going to rentier capital.

Investors love layoffs and low wages and precarious working conditions.

https://www.axios.com/2023/04/04/layoffs-tech-stocks-boom

The media claptrap definitely needs to get away from the fiction that the markets are congruent to the prosperity of the people.

This is oligarchic marketolatry.

how abt this country debt?missing info how much per head.more relevant info than some stocks info...

not that positive right?

Oh, this wage growth microagression is becoming tiresome

grc

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-debt-to-gdp

wondering why JT never inform us abt this?

how abt this country debt?

Japan's fiscal debt is not relevant. Japan owns most of its "debt", ie, it borrows money from itself and pays itself back. Anyway, when the government services its "debt," where is that money paid to and how do the recipients spend it?

If anything, the greater the debt, the higher share prices could go, since there is more yen being spread around in the form of coupon payments from JGBs. This is the reality that few people have figured out.

how abt this country debt?

Japan's fiscal debt is not relevant. 

Japan's 30-year bond yield is now higher than China's.

This is an important and consequential financial development in the world and no one is talking about it.

quercetumToday  02:45 pm JST

how abt this country debt?

Japan's fiscal debt is not relevant. 

Japan's 30-year bond yield is now higher than China's.

This is an important and consequential financial development in the world and no one is talking about it.

@JeffLee

This idea that fiscal debt does not matter is incorrect. An ever-expanding fiscal debt poses several risks. One among several others is the loss of the value of money, both externally (already happened with the sharp depreciation of the JPY) and internally through inflation. The fact that inflation has been negligible or moderate over the past 30 years does not guarantee that this will remain the case indefinitely.

Some fundamentals appear good. Debt is a worry but soothing compared to the great Euro nations. But Yen is low, My major Q. Jpn rep is as a saving nation... no mention of pent- up savings demand, bull markets require bucks demand. Market commentators just want their commissions! To extend it's state borrowing jpn needs a tax 'bandwith' to cover the extended debt. What will be will be. 30yr bonds to influence 12mht growth. or broker commissions? apologies 'Q', 007 may disagree with that innovative gadget.

I wish good fortune to all investing in the Japanese stock market in the New Year!

I have heard a number of prominent foreign investors expressing optimism about Japan in the future, Stan Druckenmiller and incoming US Treasury secretary Bessent are a couple of names that spring to mind. (Not my personal view but they are very accomplished people.)

But the Japanese currency is likely to firm moderately, trading in a range from 140 to 160 against the U.S. dollar after hitting a 37-year low in the upper 161 level in July, analysts said.

I will be surprised if the yen doesn’t fall below 160 in the new year, but these types of annual range are ridiculous really. Lots of stuff will happen that will quickly render them useless. I don’t think anyone should be under the impression that the yen is likely to go back to 140 because of another 0.25 bps rate hike.