Investors to keep eye on revised Japan GDP figures next week


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“A jump in capital spending suggests that output may have been flat last quarter instead of the initially reported 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter decline.”

Now there's cause to celebrate -- being flat instead of down. My oh my how Japan Inc's expectations have declined.

-3 ( +3 / -6 )

Nominal GDP is an aggregate measurement and pretty much meaningless in a country with a declining population. Without giving GDP per capita the numbers don't tell you anything. I now look forward to getting thumbs downs from the enemies of basic arithmetic.

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

Nominal GDP is an aggregate measurement and pretty much meaningless in a country with a declining population.

Nonsense, as usual, since the GDP base is what the government bases its tax and spending assumptions/budgets on. And, as you point out, with a declining population, and also an aging one, which means increased social welfare costs, plus an increased military budget, it is critically important that Japan have a rise in total GDP. Otherwise, they have no choice but to just pile on more debt. Wow, "basic arithmetic" from one of those "enemies".

-4 ( +2 / -6 )

@jerseyboy LOL that is not remotely how Japan or any other country operates. Gdp is determined in part by the government's budgetary decisions, not the other way around. And debt is not "piled on", it is the just the sum of all previous deficits that was not taken back through taxes. If it grows due to another deficit that is due to the tax policies of the government, not because Gdp is not rising. But keep sharing your zombie Dark Ages economic views with us all, they are very "informative".

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

@jerseyboy is totally correct.

Nominal government spending is at record levels, whereas nominal tax revenues are not.

Japan's government spending scarce tax payer yen on useless projects with no long term payback may boost short term GDP numbers, but the opportunity costs borne by such short-term politician electioneering measures do act as a drag on longer term economic growth. There is more to this than basic arithmetic, which is why it is lost on some (maybe three).

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

There will be many more technical recession in Japan's future. But that's not bad news necessarily. People should keep an eye on living standards and socio-economic metrics rather than purely on output, which is a shallow metric indeed.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

I seem to remember reading a report recently that suggested Japan's living standards have dropped below the OECD average.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

...."Japan's living standards have dropped below the OECD average."

That's hard to fathom since GDP per capita has risen in the last few years, whereas in the Eurozone, for example, the figure has dropped.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

I have to withhold my laughter! Japan is a sinking ship! Not sinking as fast as the Titanic did but there are plenty of people asleep at the helm- It is on a slow steady decline! When I see rows of vacant houses,small businesses closing down, restaurants with zero customers on a Saturday night, singletons increasing due to stagnant salaries and working people paying more and more in tax to support an increasing geriatric population, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that this is more than 'a technical recession'

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Japan's government spending scarce tax payer yen...

The old "taxpayers' money" line being trotted out again, at which point you know you can safely stop reading and you won't miss anything.

Japan's government does not spend "tax payer yen", scarce or otherwise. It issues yen by spending and then takes some back through taxes. Believing that taxes come first and spending second, or that in the immortal words of Maggie Thatcher "sooner or later you will run out of other peoples' money" is the modern day equivalent of witch burning or draining the blood of the patient to cure him. How such levels of idiocy can still exist in the 21st century is one the mysteries of our time. Although decades long propaganda campaigns and manipulation of public opinion by those who want to feed at the trough and keep all the money for themselves explain a lot of it.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

The government does not 'issue yen by spending', unless one thinks the government is doing its spending in coins, which is the only yen that it issues.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

"The economy has slipped into a recession twice in as many years, and Tokyo is compiling an extra budget to counter the downturn"

That extra budget will turns things around, lol!

1 ( +1 / -0 )

"The government does not 'issue yen by spending"

What do you think happens, on the monetary side, when the government procures from the private sector? Or when central banks buy assets from commercial banks? Something very fundamental happens. And if you don't know what that is, then you don't really know anything about how a modern economy works.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Wow. Your words make you seem so self-assured, and knowledgeable.

Anyone who thinks that the government of a modern economy is essentially counterfeiting money when it spends huge amounts of money, is IMHO a total crackpot, but I am happy to be proven wrong if presented with evidence from an authoritative source (such as from the Ministry of Finance or Bank of Japan, but these are just examples, however those organizations of all know what they are actually doing through their operations, and denial of this fact would also confirm "total crackpot" status.)

For an evidence-based fellow such as yourself, this should be a piece of cake. Or just a fried egg, even.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

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