Japan concerned over yen's rapid appreciation: gov't official

107 yen to the dollar? This is what qualifies for alarm these days? I remember very clearly exchange rates in the 70s after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. 107 is nothing.

...the top currency diplomat saying Tokyo will respond in the event of excessive volatility. "We have no choice but to be concerned about a rapid movement that cannot be explained by (economic) fundamentals,"

Spoken as if fiat currencies have any value other than perceived value. They even say so in the article

as investors fled to the perceived safety of the Japanese currency

The "concern over the yen's rapid appreciation" just means they don't want to have one currency debase too much against another. If currencies were compared against real world assets like land or precious metals, and those assets weren't manipulated in the paper markets, for example, then we would see that both the yen and the dollar are losing value. That can be seen by how much the dollar has depreciated against gold over the decades.

Well Trump messed up trade and global relations and the confidence in USD is pretty weak now.

@BigYen 

I thought the Yen was seen by the money markets as a safe go-to currency in times of uncertainty...

That is true. But now the yen is mainly rising on the prospect of lower interest rates in the US, as indicated in the past week's Fed meeting, although the trade uncertainty is also probably contributing.

Funny how intervention is only good when the yen appreciates in value, hardly ever when it’s the other way around. Pity those poor sods who invested in those now tanking foreign currency instruments the banks are always spruiking.

Clearly we can’t trust any pundit. Too high? Too low? Who to believe? We’re in the ICU now.

What else is new? The FX market is saying that Japan is strongest and safest country.

Thanks for telling us what we already know.

As someone who moves sizable amount of money on daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual basis in different markets through various asset classes, I would recommend to take anything the small picture-minded *Free-For-Loss Presstitutes Yellowstream Enemedia*** including FOX (most but not all) with a grain of salt especially when in comes to money related subjects such as the monstrous, about 5 Trillion USD daily** volume exchange FOREX market.

As a full time personal, private institutional technical intrinsic value-based trader as well as a macro fundamental investor who trades/invests my own money of 8-9 figure USD voluminous transactions through FOREX spot ＆ futures, options, bonds, stock indexes, ETFs, commodities, precious metals, cryptocurrencies and real estate, here is my take in reference to my technical analysis on USD price against JPY.

My customized proprietary USDJPY trading system that I developed myself (mostly 80% manual / the rest 20% automated algo) on CQG institutional trading platform is revealing to me that we are currently in the bear market cycle. Anyone who sold their dollar denominated account(s) at 112 price sometime in April of this year should hold until at least it gets to 100 psychological handle. High probability that with current macro economic conditions, it will likely test the price between the lows of June 2016 - November 2013 with price of 99 - 96. There are heavy resting limit institutional orders resting between 96 - 99 that need to be filled because of liquidity void and dollar rebalancing business/finance purposes especially with corporate hedgers and exporters.

So if price goes above 119-120 range with 2 consecutive monthly closes above it with strong momentous volume and with evident positive delta heavy demand volume bar while fundamentals along with technicals are aligned together then I will wait to buy around 115ish. It this does happen then with high probability it will test the highs between 122s - 126s around June 2015 to November 2015 price range. If it breaks above 126-127 with with strong conviction, then I will add more to buy around 124s to test the 129-134 range handle.

As for me, I will patiently wait for this current bear market dollar distribution / yen accumulation value cycle to exhaust until it gets back to bull market territory again. So with that said I will sell USDJPY with 3 multiple positions around 118, 117. 116. To be exact I put limit sell order on shorting it @ 116.11, 117.08, and 117.69 with all have stoploss above @ 119 handle. 1st take profit is @ 108.5, 2nd is 107.65 and last profit target is @ 106.87 but I'm open to changes depending on the macro fundamentals in combination of technicals as well as measured volatility at it progresses.

So for the opposite, if price struggles to break the 119-120 range handle then the market bear players will retest the 99-96 price range before going to bull market value cycle again. So I'll buy and long the market specifically @ 99.524, 98.956 and 98.247 with emergency stop loss just a few pips (percentage in points) below 96. 1st take profit is @ 116.5, 2nd is 117.02 and last profit target is @ 118.55 but I'm open to changes depending on the macro fundamentals environment along with trading tech conditions as well as measured volatility during the time scenario/theme plays out. If goes below 96-95 value range and closes below with conviction for solid couple of months and not just impulsive, inefficient withdrawal of liquidity then I'll reassess whether to buy or sell.

As for macro fundamentals. Keep an eye for related news about the China-US trade war especially in connection to the G20 summit in Osaka. If China starts losing or appears to be then big smart money players as well as wealthy tycoons will use JPY as a vehicle to shift their capital someplace relatively safe. The Big Boys will consider this no doubt an inflection point right along with the upcoming FED FOMC meeting in July which plays a big part in regards to global trade consequences with correlated relationship to global interbank liquidity, principal balance of global payments as well global money outflows. So with high probability this will be one of the significant catalyst for demand of YEN especially with JPY being one of the most liquid global currency.

This is a bad sign for export.

Logical to go for the Yen when you've got an unstable Pound, Euro and now the Dollar... But this is typical of some people, there's nearly always an up side to things. While Japan might not be able to sell as much, they can buy more...

So if price goes above 119-120 range with 2 consecutive monthly closes above it with strong momentous volume and with evident positive delta heavy demand volume bar while fundamentals along with technicals are aligned together then I will wait to buy around 115ish. It this does happen then with high probability it will test the highs between 122s - 126s around June 2015 to November 2015 price range. If it breaks above 126-127 with with strong conviction, then I will add more to buy around 124s to test the 129-134 range handle.

I appreciate what you trying to do here, but it's like giving a lecture in advanced synoptic meteorology to somebody who just asked if they should carry an umbrella tomorrow.