Germany's car industry would feel much pain from any no-deal Brexit Photo: AFP
business

No-deal Brexit could cost 600,000 jobs worldwide: study

14 Comments
By RONNY HARTMANN

A British departure from the European Union without a deal could put 600,000 jobs around the world at risk, with Germany the hardest hit, a study published Monday found.

Researchers at the IWH institute in Halle, eastern Germany, examined what would happen if UK imports from the remaining EU fell 25 percent after Brexit. They reckoned that some 103,000 jobs would be under threat in Europe's largest economy Germany and 50,000 in France.

Being affected by Brexit would not necessarily mean workers were laid off, the economists noted.

"Given the lack of skilled labour in many advanced economies, firms could also try to keep staff on by cutting hours or opening new markets," they said.

It is so far uncertain whether Britain will strike a deal with the EU before its legally-binding exit date of March 29, after a huge majority of lawmakers last month voted down Prime Minister Theresa May's painstakingly-negotiated accord with Brussels.

A "hard" departure without a deal would see tariffs imposed at the border, "tangling up global supply chains," study co-author Oliver Holtemoeller said in a statement.

The economists focused only on trade in goods and services, leaving out other possible economic impacts of Brexit like changes to investment flows. They noted that "since markets are linked up across the globe, suppliers based outside the European Union are also affected" by a no-deal Brexit.

Within the 27 remaining EU countries, a total of almost 180,000 posts at firms directly exporting to the UK would be at risk.

But 433,000 more workers in the EU and around the world would be affected, as their employers sell to companies who in turn export to Britain. For example, the study found some 60,000 workers in China and 3,000 in Japan could lose their jobs.

In the UK, the study turned up around 12,000 jobs dependent on supplying EU firms with inputs for products which are then sold back to Britain. But a study published early last year by research firm Cambridge Econometrics estimated that a total of 500,000 British jobs would be at risk if there is no deal.

In European powerhouse Germany, the vital car industry would be the worst affected with 15,000 jobs, many of them in Volkswagen company town Wolfsburg and at BMW's factory in Dingolfing.

By contrast, France's service sector would be the worst hit, the IWH study found.

© 2019 AFP

©2019 GPlusMedia Inc.

14 Comments
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180,000/27= 6,666.66 persons unemployed per country, within a 27 strong party; in actual fact some will have more, others almost none.

500,000/1= 500,000 persons unemployed in one country alone.

But we mustn't worry: they need us more than we do them!

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

People voted for it, give them what they want.

6 ( +7 / -1 )

Globalist propaganda.

1 ( +6 / -5 )

As things are so dire then I’ll go on a diet as there won’t be the food to eat anyway !

Win win!

0 ( +0 / -0 )

tariffs imposed at the border, "tangling up global supply chains,"

China's has rafts of tariffs and other barriers on nearly everything entering the country, and yet has the world's most extensive and effective "global supply chain." Why is it not entangled?

1 ( +1 / -0 )

It is Fearmongering and nothing else.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

Do the opposite of what Tony Blair supports and you can't go too far wrong. In this case he's campaigning for a deal.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

Do the opposite of what Tony Blair supports and you can't go too far wrong. In this case he's campaigning for a deal.

A lot of people are campaigning for a deal, because the alternative is insane. Even by Brexit standards.

The chances are that some form of deal will be hammered out at the last moment, which will give you some handy ammo to claim that you didn't get the true Brexit you wanted, and that the EU and the Westminster elite sabotaged it.

Brexit in any form is going to be damaging to Britain in the short and the long term; at this late stage any deal that does get worked out is going to be extremely inferior; and no matter what the result, including no deal, Brexit supporters will continue to carp about how it turned out for them and to look for others to blame. Yet when it comes to actual constructive ideas, who is there to turn to, and what are they proposing?

Farage? Johnson? Rees-Mogg? Yeah, they've got your back. Watch and learn.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

The chances are that some form of deal will be hammered out at the last moment, which will give you some handy ammo to claim that you didn't get the true Brexit you wanted

You're assuming I'm British but I'm not, I've got no dog in this race. However, Tony Blair's actions speak louder than his words and I would put more trust in a used car salesman than in him.

Brexit in any form is going to be damaging to Britain in the short and the long term

Maybe the short term but you don't know about the long term. No one does. Same for your claim that "the alternative is insane." Really? Something like 17.4 million Brits voted to leave so maybe they know something you don't? Whatever the case, that's what the majority chose and we'll see what happens.

One of the problems for the PTB is that if Britain manages to leave successfully without a deal then other member countries might follow suit and that's something the EU bureaucrats and other power brokers do not want. Hence all the fear mongering and propaganda as others have mentioned above.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

You're assuming I'm British but I'm not, I've got no dog in this race.

I half-assumed, but I didn't actually spend any thought on who you might be, and was addressing pro-Brexit views in general. Plenty of non-UK people have weighed in on that.

I more fully assumed that your sympathies lie with Brexit, and a no-deal Brexit at that, because that's the way it sounded. If you were just being flippant about Blair, it doesn't require several paragraphs of your followup comment defending the original comment with pro-Brexit sentiment; and at this stage in British history, Blair is completely unimportant while Brexit is a current crisis and an impending disaster. What Blair thinks is not a sound basis for simply doing the opposite, but you do underline the lack of thought that went into many people's Leave vote.

Maybe the short term but you don't know about the long term. No one does. Same for your claim that "the alternative is insane." Really?

Yes really.

Something like 17.4 million Brits voted to leave so maybe they know something you don't?

Good reasoning.

One of the problems for the PTB is that if Britain manages to leave successfully without a deal then other member countries might follow suit and that's something the EU bureaucrats and other power brokers do not want. 

What they don't want, really don't want, is a no-deal. It damages them too. But they're certainly not going to be concerned that it might be too successful for Britain, because it won't be.

Why they don't want it is that they're far more capable at the moment of thinking sensibly than that minority of the British population, the British media, and the British parliament who have been fantasizing about a no-deal for the last few months, having watched all their earlier boasting about an easy Brexit and cutting trade deals turn to dust.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

If you were just being flippant about Blair

I wasn't being flippant about Blair. He's responsible for 100s of thousands of deaths and it is clear that he works for the establishment, not the people of Britain. Furthermore he lies and obfuscates and people don't like that. He's like a barometer so if he says one thing then people should be doing the polar opposite.

What they don't want, really don't want, is a no-deal. It damages them too.

Maybe people have looked at Greece and other bankrupt or virtually bankrupt PIIGS countries and the problems these people have had and continue to go through thanks entirely to the EU, traitorous politicians and bankers. So the British decided in their referendum that it wasn't in their best interests to be a part of the EU project any more and want a clean cut, not some dodgy deal which would keep the them bound by legislation and small print.

Then there's the flood of migrants (mostly young men, many violent) and refugees (a relatively small percentage who deserve support), who are allowed into Europe in an almost open door policy. Basically it's an invasion and is supported by George Soros and the like to destroy Europe from the inside out. This has been in the works for a long time and is called the Kalergi-Coudenhove plan, if you were unaware of it.

I could go on but it's clear that at the upper levels the EU is tyrannical and similar to the old Soviet Union. It seems to me that many Europeans including the British have woken up to this and are willing to go through some short term pain for longer term freedom and benefits.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

So the British decided in their referendum that it wasn't in their best interests to be a part of the EU project any more and want a clean cut, not some dodgy deal which would keep the them bound by legislation and small print.

More correctly, not "the British decided", but "a slim majority of the British electorate decided". The actual result was 51.89% for leave, 48.11% for remain. So Brexit voters certainly do not speak for all British, or even all of the British electorate. The turnout was high (unlike many general elections), which increases legitimacy; other factors are far from satisfactory, such as the role of Cambridge Analytica

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/cambridge-analytica-bragged-we-have-vast-data-for-brexit-vote-a3797441.html

and Arron Banks/Leave.eu/Russia, and the almost certain breach of electoral laws by Banks and CA. These things are of increased importance in a vote that was so close, with the final figure at 17,410,742 versus 16,141,241.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

More correctly, not "the British decided", but "a slim majority of the British electorate decided". The actual result was 51.89% for leave, 48.11% for remain. So Brexit voters certainly do not speak for all British, or even all of the British electorate.

Ok, you win. I could have chosen better words but I think you understand what I was trying to say. It's a turn of phrase often used in the media and easy to use when typing quickly. 

You'll probably disagree with this as well but, in my opinion, the percentage of Brexit voters would have been higher had the corporate media like the BBC been more impartial. Those percentages you gave above suggest that the media coverage was fair and balanced in the run up to the referendum, but from what I've read and seen it would appear that that wasn't the case.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

No deal is better. At present the Business community does not know which way to turn. Even if the pro-remainers get an extension to stay, it will just prolong the pain within the UK.

Clear cut, sort things out afterwards. Keep it simple, do it right. Do it themselves.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

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