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S Korea, Taiwan expected to top Japan in GDP per capita in 2027, 2028

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"The biggest obstacle for Japan's economic growth is its low birthrate and aging population

No!

Japanese politicians are the main obstacle to growth in Japan by their lack of direction, inability to reform archaic laws and lack of foresight.

An entrenched bureaucracy which controls by stealth and an education system which molds kids to conform for repetition of tasks in industrial environments which have disappeared.

Forgot to mention all the J companies that have jumped ship to 3rd world countries for cheap labor.

Theres the answer.

26 ( +38 / -12 )

SK business receive massive support from their government and most of their big companies have total control over the market without allowing any new ones to settle there. Plus they also use their nationalism to stoke up the public hatred to make sure any japanese companies can't make any progress inside their country and also heavily boycott the products. While we on the other hand don't to that their products and even love their k-pop culture and food. We also have to face sever competition from the outside while government barely give any incentive or support.

You can see just how deep the SK government involvement is with many of these companies just by looking at Samsung heir case when he was pardoned by the president just because they were worried it might cause chaos in the company.

-8 ( +20 / -28 )

Back in the UK last year the number of Korean cars on the road was noticeable.

They are also winning accolades for their cars and their EV rollouts are way ahead of Japan.

The Chinese are also making inroads and Japanese companies are playing catch-up more and more….

17 ( +29 / -12 )

"Japanese people stick too much to conventional ways using (traditional) hanko seals and fax machines," Tomiyama said. "(The Japanese) value fairness above efficiency..."

What nonsense. What is fair about a fax machine? They produce mountains of totally unnecessary paper at all those gov't offices all over the country. The notion that Japanese people don't like efficiency is preposterous. Ever ridden a train or bought anything online?

Its all those digitally illiterate old men in suits running the country that is the problem.

21 ( +32 / -11 )

So still miles below Bermuda, Lichtenstein, Monaco or Luxembourg then??

A higher GDP per capita rating is not so difficult when SK only has around 40% of the population of Japan, and Taiwan less than 20%.

The standard of living in Japan is supremely higher than those other two countries.

-14 ( +15 / -29 )

South Korea has been known for its promotion of electronic government services since 2000s, and Taiwan has also made steady progress in digitalization under its digital minister Audrey Tang, Tomiyama added.

What a difference a decade (or two) make. Japanese innovation was hijacked by the financial bubble and the rentiers who continue to profit from their hoards of capital, at the expense of the rest of the population. But probably the LDP and Japan Inc. will wait until they are actually overtaken to react to the shock and horror of falling behind their Asian rivals.

"(The Japanese) value fairness above efficiency, which means the government would have to think of people vulnerable to digital tools at first."

A debatable statement. probably more about protecting ossified bureaucratic interests.

8 ( +19 / -11 )

That's the final icing on the cake. Taiwan and in particular SK are already leading Japan in every other metric. But the Japanese will still boast about Nobel prizewinners, however give the two countries 50 years and they will overtake Japan there as well given all their innovation.

-5 ( +20 / -25 )

Also, knowing the Japanese and Koreans well, this will be a massive loss of face to the Japanese as the "inferior" Koreans have surpassed them.

The Koreans on the other hand will think it's a return to normality as throughout the pre Meiji period, Korea was always the more economically advanced country,

0 ( +24 / -24 )

@Knight

A higher GDP per capita rating is not so difficult when SK only has around 40% of the population of Japan

So, by your argument, Japan should be way ahead of the US, which has 3 times the population. Not last time I looked.

4 ( +17 / -13 )

@Hiro

Yeah you keep telling yourself that.

Whether it's true or not, the reality is that Japan is seriously falling behind due to its lack of digitalization and strong urge to stick to conventional (but inefficient) ways. Japan in my opinion is a bit too slow due to bureaucracy and not adaptive to a fast-paced, tech era.

14 ( +24 / -10 )

That's because South Korea is getting a huge pass. South Korea was never forced to sign the Plaza Accord. Then benefitted from Japanese companies misery dealing with Plaza Accord for 3 lost decades.

China and USA trade war in 2018 remember that.....

South Korea was there to take advantage. South Korea benefitted the most from USA, China trade war.

South Korea is playing all sides, benefiting from all issues that arrive. Doesn't have to take unnecessary burden like Quad Alliance or helping democratic Taiwan with real emergency plans, instead playing dumb is better and easier.

Someone has to think about Samsung, that's more important then defending neighboring Taiwan or stopping China.

-2 ( +20 / -22 )

Japan does so many things well but keeping up with technology is not one of them. So much red tape and over engineering. once they get up and running it’s very good but always behind the curve.

Blame politicians all you want but someone elected those people to represent them. Vote them out if you want change.

7 ( +17 / -10 )

"The biggest obstacle for Japan's economic growth is its low birthrate and aging population, but South Korea and Taiwan are in much the same case on that point, so the difference comes from their productivity and efforts for digitalization," said Atsushi Tomiyama, a principal economist at the research institute.

And as usual a japanese tries to sugarcoat Japan's xenophobia. Someone needs to tell Atsushi that SK is not in the same case AT ALL when it comes to aging population as SK amended its immigration and citizenship laws in 2008.

First SK scrapped the 1 citizenship law in 2008. Since then a SK can get another citizenship and keep their SK one and same goes for foreigners who get SK citizenship.

Second is that SK opened up its immigration tremendously in 2008. Anyone who has lived and worked in SK consistently for 5 years can apply for citizenship- not PR- and they don't have to be married. If they are married to a SK, they get citizenship after 2 years and of course they can keep their original citizenship as well. In 2008 SK was actually doing worse demographically than Japan. Now they are actually in a better demographic position (although still not great) than Japan.

I can't comment on Taiwan as I don't know the situation there.

0 ( +23 / -23 )

So, by your argument, Japan should be way ahead of the US, which has 3 times the population. Not last time I looked.

Nope... You don't quite get it.

-12 ( +4 / -16 )

GDP per capita is largely dependent on working-age population. Productivity is also dependent on age. We can easily imagine that elderly people spend less than young one and their productivity is low. Many elderly people without PC still need FAX in Japan.

Elderly population ratio (over 65) by each countries are as follows; (%)

Japan: 28.4, Italy: 23.3, Germany: 21.7, USA: 16.6, Taiwan: 16.0, S. Korea: 15.8, China: 12.0

Decreasing birth rate and aging population of S. Korea and Taiwan are worse than Japan, recently. Therefore, I doubt the results of this research. GDP per capita of Japan may jump after death of baby boomers.

-1 ( +11 / -12 )

When I grew up we used to drive Volvo. Then we switched to Japanese cars. No my parents are driving Korean.

4 ( +15 / -11 )

Good news and bad news.

Bad new: Japan is getting surpassed.

Good news: By other asians.

Hopefully this means japanese get competitive again.

-7 ( +8 / -15 )

@kurisupisu I could not agree more.

In the filed of agriculture, which I am familiar with and a part of the economy that the government has hopes for growth in, Japan is ridiculously stuck in the mud. The single desk tender system for importing grains is really hurting Japanese consumers and enterprises. I know that a new state of the art mill was built on a fantastic port by a major flour company with plans to import mill and export flour to SK and Taiwan after TPP was signed but government regulations on imports of wheat dashed that plan.

In many of the flat plains, fields are small and farmers not very productive. Fields could easily quadruple in size in many areas. Japan is stuck growing low value crops like rice and there is little incentive to grow high value crops like winter oil rapeseed. There are some areas in Japan where farmers grow 2 crops a year but it could easily be done everywhere. Very few farmers plant a nitrogen fixing cover crop like Chinese vetch to reduce fertilizer needs. Farmers and absentee landowners just cannot respond to market realities.

10 ( +17 / -7 )

I'm not pessimistic about Japan' economy. There are still many areas in technology where Japan is still way ahead of anyone, especially knowledge and capital intensive technologies that can only be made by Japan. One example is semiconductor technology. The smart phone you buy may say "Made in China" or "Made in Korea", but it is full of that knowledge and capital intensive semiconductor technology that only Japan can make.

-10 ( +10 / -20 )

Its all those digitally illiterate old men in suits running the country that is the problem."

Quote of the day! LDP museum.

looking at Samsung heir case when he was pardoned by the president just because they were worried it might cause chaos in the company."

Show me a blue blood J-Inc prince that was ever put in jail in Japan ( Japanese no a foreigner )...at least SK is not afraid to put their bigwigs away for corruption. Japan,s top echelons would be depleted if the same was to happen here.

Taiwan and in particular SK are already leading Japan in every other metric. But the Japanese will still boast about Nobel prizewinners,"

Yep , even when those guys have left Japan for greener pastures elsewhere decades ago.

So, by your argument, Japan should be way ahead of the US, which has 3 times the population. Not last time I looked.........................Nope... You don't quite get it."

Oh HE gets it just fine.

That's because South Korea is getting a huge pass. South Korea was never forced to sign the Plaza Accord. Then benefitted from Japanese companies misery dealing with Plaza Accord for 3 lost decades."

Any old crocodile tears argument to divert from Japan,s deficiencies...is Taiwan getting a free pass too?

*China and USA trade war in 2018 remember that.....South Korea was there to take advantage. South Korea benefitted the most from USA, China trade war."*

Why didnt Japan step up to benefit more? Someone forgot to put a hanko on a fax?

7 ( +19 / -12 )

I’m sure the next release of government GDP figures will be tweaked to put a stop to this nonsense of loosing place in the viewed natural order.

3 ( +13 / -10 )

The research paper was hankod and faxed to news organizations.

3 ( +14 / -11 )

SK business receive massive support from their government 

As opposed to Japanese businesses? It may be more hidden in Japan, but propping up unviable businesses is the national pastime here.

13 ( +20 / -7 )

It all seems much of muchness.

-2 ( +6 / -8 )

Don't read too much into it GDP measurements are no longer good by itself.

5 ( +10 / -5 )

(The Japanese) value fairness above efficiency

Even the person who points out some of the issues of Japan cannot stop himself from pulling some "Japan is unique" drivel. It is not the average person that values efficiency less, but the dinosaurs at LDP and Keidanren who are fine with the status quo of cheap, replaceable labor who does as they are told.

6 ( +16 / -10 )

No country for your men.

Old people sit at the top, make decision, while the young do the customer service.

Even as far back as Alexander the Great saw the merits of meritocracy, but Japan still cannot.

3 ( +14 / -11 )

No country for young men ***

3 ( +10 / -7 )

Japanese politicians are the main obstacle to growth in Japan by their lack of direction, inability to reform archaic laws and lack of foresight.

An entrenched bureaucracy which controls by stealth and an education system which molds kids to conform for repetition of tasks in industrial environments which have disappeared.

Forgot to mention all the J companies that have jumped ship to 3rd world countries for cheap labor.

101% agree

7 ( +15 / -8 )

That's the final icing on the cake. Taiwan and in particular SK are already leading Japan in every other metric.

Overall QOL is still better in Japan. Cities are more pleasant and safer overall, services are better run, if not archaic, food is cleaner. Daily life is perhaps a but duller and more sterile though, but that's a problem all advanced first-world countries might face.

5 ( +11 / -6 )

The state-enforced adoption of digitalisation in South Korea involved the mandatory use of Microsoft's Active X. Google/Wikipedia that to see how well it went.

Whenever governments involve themselves with tech, it ends badly.

This article seems primarily designed to cast government digitalisation policies in a good light. If the pandemic has taught us anything, it is that crystal-ball gazing like this is entirely pointless. How many lockdowns, trade wars, quakes and sanctions will there be before 2027?

-1 ( +7 / -8 )

In the filed of agriculture, which I am familiar with and a part of the economy that the government has hopes for growth in, Japan is ridiculously stuck in the mud. The single desk tender system for importing grains is really hurting Japanese consumers and enterprises. I know that a new state of the art mill was built on a fantastic port by a major flour company with plans to import mill and export flour to SK and Taiwan after TPP was signed but government regulations on imports of wheat dashed that plan.

In many of the flat plains, fields are small and farmers not very productive. Fields could easily quadruple in size in many areas. Japan is stuck growing low value crops like rice and there is little incentive to grow high value crops like winter oil rapeseed. There are some areas in Japan where farmers grow 2 crops a year but it could easily be done everywhere. Very few farmers plant a nitrogen fixing cover crop like Chinese vetch to reduce fertilizer needs. Farmers and absentee landowners just cannot respond to market realities.

Anyone here have inaka land and want to step up their game?

0 ( +2 / -2 )

An interesting point is that average Korean annual wage is already $5,000 higher than Japan's. So imagine what the wage differences would be like when Korea's nominal GDP per capita is larger than Japan's; Korea's average wage might be twice as high as Japan's by 2027, and this is already showing.

Mercedes is the second best selling auto brand in Korea after Hyundai-Kia, BMW is 3rd. Average Koreans can afford Genesis, Mercedes, BMW, and Tesla while average Japanese can only afford Kei cars.

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200915000884

[News Focus] Korea outstrips Japan in average pay in 2019

But lags behind OECD average, despite drastic hikes in minimum salary

The average annual wage for South Korean workers was found to have reached $42,285 last year, according to calculation by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

http://res.heraldm.com/content/image/2020/09/15/20200915000754_0.jpg

-7 ( +16 / -23 )

It is time to move to Korea guys! Find some nice Korean girls, have kids, and contribute to the national GDP.

However, Taiwan won't be such a problem as it will probably be incorporated into mainland China as all the signs are indicating war is coming soon. Russia building up more troops on the border with Ukraine, and recently more and more reserve troops are being called.

I think Japan instead of focusing on chasing Koreans should focus on build-up a defense system within Japan.

-10 ( +5 / -15 )

"Japanese people stick too much to conventional ways using (traditional) hanko seals and fax machines," Tomiyama said. "(The Japanese) value fairness above efficiency, which means the government would have to think of people vulnerable to digital tools at first."

hahaha thanks for the laugh

1 ( +10 / -9 )

This reminds me of when Ireland's GDP per capita rose to exceed the UK's. When I grew up, the UK's was 30% higher, and people clearly looked down on Ireland. The tables have completely turned since.

In the real world, GDP is not divvied up per capita, and the level of inequality will have a big influence on what this number means to the average person. However, given where Japan was before the late 80s asset bubble, a world-beating economic powerhouse, this is a huge comedown. I am not hopeful, but perhaps "below Korea" could provide some extra motivation to inspire change.

2 ( +7 / -5 )

The worst part is that this is a long term trend with no change in sight. Think about raising the sales tax yet again, two years of closed borders to foreign professionals who can bring global expertise, new bonds issued in the trillions of yen yet no one clearly knows where or how the money is being spent and certainly not making its way to families with children, and lest we forget almost 2 years of hostile detention of a global executive who turned around and made Nissan profitable and will deter further immigration of global professionals. The only good thing is that China will do worse than Japan.

0 ( +7 / -7 )

Kyodo in full sales rep mode.

The article is less about the GDP than selling the magical solution of "dejitarizeeshon" as a fit-em-all remedy. Declining birthrate: dejitarizeeshon. Superaging society: dejitarizeeshon. Failing GDP: why not dejitarizeeshon as well...(sigh)

How many times did we hear about a "magical" solution that went utterly nowhere and left things in a state worse than before?

Abe had "Abenomics". Suga had "Olympicnomics". We know the results. Kishida is betting on "dejitarunomics". We already know the results.

Just an endless line of one trick ponies, all promising brighter futures via a single fuzzy (and generally completely unrelated) solution that will only leave smoking ruins for the next one to hide with another BS story to sell. Depressing....

4 ( +13 / -9 )

@kohakuebisu

The tables have completely turned since.

Not really because Ireland's GDP figure is the result of US multinationals locating their European HQs in Ireland to take advantage of Irish tax laws that amounts to being a tax haven.

In other word, all of Amazon, Apple, and Google's European sales count as Irish GDP.

Actual Irish wage level is lower than that of England. You have similar situations in Hong Kong and Singapore, both with artificially inflated GDP due to their tax haven status.

Korea is the opposite, a rare case where average salary is much higher than nominal GDP per capita. This is the result of young people entering work force late(military service, studying overseas) and many women opting to stay home after marriage, etc.

https://bunshun.jp/articles/-/50925

平均賃金は韓国以下…「貧しい国」になった日本が生き残るための“新常識”

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/2ca9d4b1ed3d97a30e36718faf2dc8a6b5cc740c

「日本が韓国にG7の地位を奪われる日がくるかも」…日本の碩学の苦言

-4 ( +7 / -11 )

Japan - land of the setting sun and financial malaise.

2 ( +12 / -10 )

Here is an article explaining how Irish GDP isn't real.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ireland-gdp-growth-multinationals-misleading/

Multinationals make Ireland’s GDP growth ‘clearly misleading’

Ex-Central Bank chief: In real world, Irish nowhere near top of EU wealth table.

Ireland’s GDP is principally distorted by the presence of more than 1,500 multinationals, among them most of the world’s top tech and pharma firms. Ireland is also the world’s top hub for aviation leasing.

The other way multinationals give Ireland a bloated GDP is by shifting their global HQs to the country, as scores did in the past decade, particularly U.S. pharmaceutical firms before that loophole was closed in 2016. These firms’ undistributed global profits inflate Irish GDP and GNI.

Yet a handful of these multinationals are so big that, when they exploit Ireland’s low-tax environment with accounting moves, the nation’s GDP figures can be pushed to breaking point.

The other way multinationals give Ireland a bloated GDP is by shifting their global HQs to the country, as scores did in the past decade, particularly U.S. pharmaceutical firms before that loophole was closed in 2016. These firms’ undistributed global profits inflate Irish GDP and GNI.

0 ( +10 / -10 )

Time to watch more kdrama to learn korean.

-3 ( +8 / -11 )

As long as the relation between the government and the ministry of finance being NOT dramatically renewed, Japan’s economy will continue to be a slow growth and behind other countries.

Also if many people realize there are a lot of media controls existing, they can discriminate which information is better for Japan’s economy and economic security also.

-1 ( +7 / -8 )

 two years of closed borders to foreign professionals who can bring global expertise

Unfortunately, extremely high taxes and no-English culture ensures that not many foreign professionals are coming to Japan, closed borders or not. Most foreigners in Japan are unskilled. A foreign professional will go to Singapore/Thailand/HK way before Japan.

1 ( +10 / -9 )

I would also like to know what the Gini coefficient (income inequality) is for each country because if it's high in any one country that means high earners are making things look better than they are for the average person

5 ( +6 / -1 )

That is some great news isn’t it? The democratic part of the region is steadily growing and the forecast is positive.

-4 ( +0 / -4 )

An interesting point is that average Korean annual wage is already $5,000 higher than Japan's. So imagine what the wage differences would be like when Korea's nominal GDP per capita is larger than Japan's; Korea's average wage might be twice as high as Japan's by 2027, and this is already showing.

Bravo. South Korea! Yet, some still puzzles, the fact employment ratio of college graduates level is much worse, 31st among 37 OECD countries, which does not contradict with another fact so many of young Koreans

are looking for jobs in Japan, giving it up in South Korea.

https://www.donga.com/jp/article/all/20211119/3046311/1

Severe side effect of Moon's economic policy on minimum wage squeezing employments by major SK corps?

2 ( +11 / -9 )

As per my knowledge its because of the way japanese treat foreigners... they only want foreigners to buy their product and when their economy is down.... if japan has to compete with the world then the policy for foreigners should be good other wise i think it will rust like it is from the 1980s

-3 ( +7 / -10 )

To my mind, the demise of Japan began just after the mid 1980's just before the financial boom of the late 1980's. I think that there are many reasons for this, but the main reason was Japan's complete inability to adapt to a modern, international, open society coupled with arrogance, and backward thinking by bureaucrats. Japan was just not willing to embrace a world which had embraced Japan.

-2 ( +9 / -11 )

Haha. Good good.

-5 ( +7 / -12 )

"Japanese people stick too much to conventional ways using (traditional) hanko seals and fax machines," Tomiyama said. "(The Japanese) value fairness above efficiency, which means the government would have to think of people vulnerable to digital tools at first."

Hahahahahahahahaha ho ho ho hum

Fairness above efficiency hahahahahahahahahahahaha

-3 ( +8 / -11 )

fairness above efficiency

Let us all use flip phones, because the LDP oyaji doesn't know how to use a touchscreen yet.

-1 ( +10 / -11 )

The LDP are a disgrace and an embarrassment to our country. Korea and Taiwan are far more progressive and even have women and people under 200 years old in their government.

0 ( +11 / -11 )

We also have to face sever competition from the outside while government barely give any incentive or support.

I guess you did read about the gov't pumping money in chip plant in kumamoto than sony

intends to build in a joint venture with a taiwan company.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Not surprised, Japan will definitely lose to India within 2-3 years, while Japan will possibly lose to many ASEAN countries within this decade.

Years of LDP's incompetence have permanently destroyed Japan!

15 ( +26 / -11 )

The "Free trade" agreements such as TPP, RCEP, FTA, EPA has been eating away Japan's economy for over 30 years... this is pure poison for Japan's economy.

LOL, Japanese Right-wing have to realize that Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong, are the same thing as china and south korea...they are Japan's commercial rivals

-1 ( +5 / -6 )

I think that there are many reasons for this, but the main reason was Japan's complete inability to adapt to a modern, international, open society coupled with arrogance, and backward thinking by bureaucrats. Japan was just not willing to embrace a world which had embraced Japan.

THIS!

Alan! EXCELLENT POST mate!

-3 ( +8 / -11 )

Hiro

SK business receive massive support from their government and most of their big companies have total control over the market without allowing any new ones to settle there. Plus they also use their nationalism to stoke up the public hatred to make sure any japanese companies can't make any progress inside their country and also heavily boycott the products. While we on the other hand don't to that their products...

Yeah? How many Hyundai and Kia vehicles do you see on the streets here. How many Samsung and LG TV's and appliances have you seen in your friends' homes? I have seen an occasional Samsung smartphone. But, that's about it.

3 ( +11 / -8 )

How many Hyundai and Kia vehicles do you see on the streets here

I raise my hand! I saw 1 in 7 years. And that was around the Korean embassy with a blue diplomatic plate.

3 ( +10 / -7 )

At least the Koreans have national pride and drive their own country's vehicles whereas the Japanese will chose Beemers or Mercs for diplomatic work.

-3 ( +6 / -9 )

 I raise my hand! I saw 1 in 7 years. And that was around the Korean embassy with a blue diplomatic plate.

I have always wondered why foreign car despite the smaller body size and engine capacity

are 3 number a good example is mini cooper, peugeot 208, Benz A170 etc We know tax, shaken etc for 3 number cars is higher.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

@Samit Basu

Mercedes is the second best selling auto brand in Korea after Hyundai-Kia, BMW is 3rd. Average Koreans can afford Genesis, Mercedes, BMW, and Tesla while average Japanese can only afford Kei cars.

Not just in SK, Japanese executives from Sumitomo, Mizuho, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, other national flagship companies of Japan in Vietnam are even stunned at the number of luxury cars in the streets of Vietnam. They are stunned that rural areas in Vietnam have more of them than in urban areas. In Vietnam, Vietnamese elites always party hard with Koreans, Chinese, Westerners but they rarely see any Japanese in these fancy parties at nightclubs to lavish ballrooms. Many Vietnamese workers also comment that Japanese executives in Vietnam are stingy with money because Japanese executives apparently don't have much.

I don't even have space to talk about Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore. Japanese invisibility in ASEAN is even worse since Japanese executives are too embarrassed of admitting that those "inferior Asians" getting richer than them.

https://asiatimes.com/2021/12/japan-pays-a-high-price-as-it-goes-down-market/

Jake Adelstein recently wrote an article about this, and even Thailand now has higher prices and competitive standards of living than Japan. He basically cited the sources from various Japanese economists on the matter, not his own words.

Japanese competent workers are already seeking jobs in China, and those people are hailed from big companies of Japan!!!

@Udondashi

The "Free trade" agreements such as TPP, RCEP, FTA, EPA has been eating away Japan's economy for over 30 years... this is pure poison for Japan's economy.

These agreements are what empower Japanese rivals against Japan. China and Vietnam are the greatest recipients of these agreements as they can manipulate their own currencies without any consequence. Japan was screwed because of not only the Plaza Accord but also stupid bureaucrats in the Bank of Japan who brought into Reaganomics. The BoJ officials, who were controlled by American financiers from the start, experimented on the concept of monetary easing and skyrocketing FIRE (Finance, Real Estate, Insurance) growth from the 1980s to the 1990s. You all know the story of how it ended up but the BoJ blamed their incompetence on the MITI and MoF, two powerful ministries that were controlled by secret members of the Japan Socialist Party or socialist sympathizers.

Japan permanently destroyed its own economy by creating an experimental economic bubble to oust the shadow socialists and communists within Japan. The last effective, competent leader of Japan was a socialist named Tomiichi Murayama.

Japan struggles to regain control over its economy and currency from the FED and US military-intelligence complex. That's why it now joins almost every FTA on the planet but it will likely harm Japan in the long term. Japan's permanent destruction in its ability to control its own financial systems, due to 1980s bubbles, will allow little insurance against fierce competitors from China, Vietnam, India, and ASEAN nations.

@gokai_wo_maneku

I'm not pessimistic about Japan' economy. There are still many areas in technology where Japan is still way ahead of anyone, especially knowledge and capital intensive technologies that can only be made by Japan.

You mean the American free gifts to Japan that Japanese scientists continue developing after everyone is moving to a new thing. Like hydrogen fuels or even flip phones?

Japan always relies on foreigners to bring new things to them, not they find something new by themselves (this rarely happens). Even Japanese advances in semiconductors in the 20th century were already discovered and practiced by Western scientists and Soviet scientists. Japan was good in that century because they knew how to effectively mass produce Western technological advances. This is something that China is going way ahead of Japan since China discovers their own things not to rely on the West.

@kurisupisu

An entrenched bureaucracy which controls by stealth and an education system which molds kids to conform for repetition of tasks in industrial environments which have disappeared.

Forgot to mention all the J companies that have jumped ship to 3rd world countries for cheap labor.

Adding wounds to the fact, Japanese workers are now becoming the so-called "Third world" workers themselves in those "Third World" nations. Smarter Japanese people flee to the West for better salary jobs than in Japan, like Kei Komuro and Princess Mako.

If all Japanese kids can learn multiple languages and travel around the world, like Chinese and Vietnamese kids who have more international students in the West than Japan, then Japan will be an empty workplace. Almost everyone from Japan never goes back to their country once any of them has settled in the West. Japanese bureaucrats are still living in their feudal fantasies, and they need filthy peasants to feed their egos. However, that reality will rapidly shatter in the coming years as Chinese, Vietnamese, Southeast Asian immigrants gain in dominant number and economic power within Japan. These feudal lords will realize that they can't bully foreign immigrants anymore.

@Cricky

I’m sure the next release of government GDP figures will be tweaked to put a stop to this nonsense of loosing place in the viewed natural order.

They will probably fake all of the GDP data to make Japan look great as an OECD member and a G7 member. In truth, Japan gradually holds no power and economic strength as a member of any of these prestigious organizations.

@Septim Dynasty

Not surprised, Japan will definitely lose to India within 2-3 years, while Japan will possibly lose to many ASEAN countries within this decade.

I would comment that Japan has already lost to India in many fields from space technologies to defense technologies. The economy of India is possibly larger than Japan as we speak since India has never truly released its own full potential yet. Big ASEAN nations (Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines) are going to surpass Japan much faster if the Taiwan straight conflict is going to happen within a few months or 2-3 years.

Japan's LDP will drag Japan into its own self-destructive war against China. Of course, China will destroy Japan's economy for good. Just look at Ukraine, it was once an industrial power that competed against Germany. Now, its economic position lost so badly because Ukrainian leaders are deeply entrenched into American false promises, just like the LDP elites today.

15 ( +26 / -11 )

Just GDP per capita which is not even inflation-adjusted, what a party. Unless you are here with term-contracts as expats, sure, it is time for you to get out of this country. The exit is always wide open.

What is this JT community REALLY? a bunch of .......???

-5 ( +6 / -11 )

Overall QOL is still better in Japan. Cities are more pleasant and safer overall, services are better run, if not archaic, food is cleaner. Daily life is perhaps a but duller and more sterile though, but that's a problem all advanced first-world countries might face.

Yeah, I am enjoying a very high standard of living in my 58 sqm apartment for a family of 5 in Adachi ward

one bath , one vanity and a living room that is a whooping 7 tatami and cannot take a sofa for 4 people with bedrooms that measure a whooping 4.5 tatami that is easily filled up by a semi double bed. I want to buy a dish washer but no place to place it because the 3 place gas cooker is so large it has taken much of the space. I can write a book about my high QOL.

0 ( +6 / -6 )

drluciferToday  05:57 pm JST

Overall QOL is still better in Japan. Cities are more pleasant and safer overall, services are better run, if not archaic, food is cleaner. Daily life is perhaps a but duller and more sterile though, but that's a problem all advanced first-world countries might face.

Yeah, I am enjoying a very high standard of living in my 58 sqm apartment for a family of 5 in Adachi ward

one bath , one vanity and a living room that is a whooping 7 tatami and cannot take a sofa for 4 people with bedrooms that measure a whooping 4.5 tatami that is easily filled up by a semi double bed. I want to buy a dish washer but no place to place it because the 3 place gas cooker is so large it has taken much of the space. I can write a book about my high QOL.

I feel sorry. What made you still keep living in Tokyo? Please understand GDP per capita does not help you. Really, If all other Asian countries are rich enough, what makes you and your family to stay here?

4 ( +9 / -5 )

drluciferToday  05:57 pm JST

Overall QOL is still better in Japan. Cities are more pleasant and safer overall, services are better run, if not archaic, food is cleaner. Daily life is perhaps a but duller and more sterile though, but that's a problem all advanced first-world countries might face.

Yeah, I am enjoying a very high standard of living in my 58 sqm apartment for a family of 5 in Adachi ward

one bath , one vanity and a living room that is a whooping 7 tatami and cannot take a sofa for 4 people with bedrooms that measure a whooping 4.5 tatami that is easily filled up by a semi double bed. I want to buy a dish washer but no place to place it because the 3 place gas cooker is so large it has taken much of the space. I can write a book about my high QOL.

I feel sorry. What made you still keep living in Tokyo? Please understand GDP per capita does not help you. Really, If all other Asian countries are rich enough, what makes you and your family to stay here?

I mean what is your annual salary in $? Higher or lower than the magic index called GDP per capita?

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

Yeah, I am enjoying a very high standard of living in my 58 sqm apartment for a family of 5 in Adachi ward

one bath , one vanity and a living room that is a whooping 7 tatami and cannot take a sofa for 4 people with bedrooms that measure a whooping 4.5 tatami that is easily filled up by a semi double bed. I want to buy a dish washer but no place to place it because the 3 place gas cooker is so large it has taken much of the space. I can write a book about my high QOL.

That sounds a lot better than the three apartments I stayed in while I was in Seoul and Yongin. No bathtubs, not even a shower stall, just tiny square bathrooms with a shower nozzle. My toilet seat was drenched every time I showered.

1 ( +6 / -5 )

*Mercedes is the second best selling auto brand in Korea after Hyundai-Kia, BMW is 3rd**. Average Koreans can afford Genesis, Mercedes, BMW, and Tesla while average Japanese can only afford Kei cars.*

You always entertain this community. Good Job

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

As per my knowledge its because of the way japanese treat foreigners... they only want foreigners to buy their product and when their economy is down....

South Korea has its own issues with foreigners. Ask one of the Yemeni refugees who were in Jeju when 700,000 people signed a petition to deport them. Or one of the English teachers who were deported for no good reason back when the government raided Hagwons en masse.

6 ( +8 / -2 )

Great to see the JT community coming together here with excellent insights.

One more thing worth noting is the current five year low of JPY. Just a slight strengthening would put Japan back above these countries

0 ( +3 / -3 )

"I would comment that Japan has already lost to India in many fields from space technologies to defense technologies"

Certainly India is ahead of Japan in the numbers of cows wandering around Delhi; I serious doubt you'll see any cows waiting at the traffic lights in Tokyo.

India also is light year ahead of Japan in terms of infectious diseases and filthy public sanitation.

India/Korea/Vietnam ahead in terms of space technologies?!

Please, come back when they can show something akin to the Hayabusa Probe(s) or the HTV-1.

This place is awash with jokers.

-1 ( +6 / -7 )

Japan leadby the LDP went though a tremendious amount of growth but then peaked and started a downward spiral yet refuse to stop and correct the course. It's really simple stop electing old poeple. leave teh past in the past and change while moving forward or fall way, way behind. All the while thinking youre still a great country

3 ( +3 / -0 )

That just won’t happen, because that’s only the economic part of the whole picture. SK will have to shoulder unification costs when the North Koreans stream in or if that won’t happen they have the defense costs or sparing the money for a potentially occurring unification with NK. And Taiwan, well you probably know or heard of Xi’s midterm agenda…they will have a GDP per capita like the rest of China or a bit above, something like extra economic zones as in Hongkong, Shanghai, Guangzhou and such places. Again in this case, if it not happens before 2027 that China takes over, then the potential higher GDP fades away into necessary defense efforts. Japan won’t profit so much from those developments either, because aging society and shrinking population are of course obstacles for a higher GDP as already has been said in the article above and by other commenters.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

@Sven Asai

SK will have to shoulder unification costs when the North Koreans stream

That won't be a problem at all because of incredibly high land value in Korea. North Korean land as it stands is worth $4 trillion, and government developing those land and selling them off alone is enough to fund redevelopment of North Korea upto Southern infrastructure standard.

In fact, timing is ripe because the ROK now has the money to take over and redevelop North Korea, whereas the ROK of 20 years couldn't.

So no one in South is concerned with cost of unification because the North Korean land itself will pay for it, that is before factoring in rare earth mines worth another couple trillion dollars.

If North Korea had privatized land ownership then yes it doesn't make financial sense, but not when most of land is public domain and whose ownership would be transferred to the ROK government when it takes over.

-3 ( +3 / -6 )

Samit BasuToday  01:25 am JST

@Sven Asai

SK will have to shoulder unification costs when the North Koreans stream

That won't be a problem at all because of incredibly high land value in Korea. North Korean land as it stands is worth $4 trillion, and government developing those land and selling them off alone is enough to fund redevelopment of North Korea upto Southern infrastructure standard.

In fact, timing is ripe because the ROK now has the money to take over and redevelop North Korea, whereas the ROK of 20 years couldn't.

So no one in South is concerned with cost of unification because the North Korean land itself will pay for it, that is before factoring in rare earth mines worth another couple trillion dollars.

If North Korea had privatized land ownership then yes it doesn't make financial sense, but not when most of land is public domain and whose ownership would be transferred to the ROK government when it takes over.

No scenario for the peninsula unified under Kim dynasty? Who would purchase such lands under Kim?

Foreign investors?

1 ( +4 / -3 )

@Tomchon

Also, knowing the Japanese and Koreans well, this will be a massive loss of face to the Japanese as the "inferior" Koreans have surpassed them.

The Koreans on the other hand will think it's a return to normality as throughout the pre Meiji period, Korea was always the more economically advanced country,

As if you lived longer than several centuries on the peninsula. You sounds like Koreans have been fighting against " loss of face" for all these years. Think for a moment in order to think " we, but not me, my ancestors, were better and taught you everything" mind.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Attracting global talent as well as necessary manual workers is the only thing to prevent an inevitable decline; not mere digitalisation of offices. It could not be quantified but my view is there is a link between age-old Japanese cultural exceptionalism on the one hand and this inability to address reality (or debt) on the other.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

Expect that gap to grow even further as more bitter and disillusioned foreigners in Japan move to SK and Taiwan.

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

@kennyG

No scenario for the peninsula unified under Kim dynasty? Who would purchase such lands under Kim?

Not even Kim Jong Un dreams of such scenario given the ROK's military might. After all, Kim insists on having nukes to deter the ROK invasion which can takeover all of North Korea in 1 month according to North Korean estimates, half that according to ROK estimates.

-2 ( +4 / -6 )

Samit BasuToday  11:57 am JST

@kennyG

No scenario for the peninsula unified under Kim dynasty? Who would purchase such lands under Kim?

Not even Kim Jong Un dreams of such scenario given the ROK's military might. After all, Kim insists on having nukes to deter the ROK invasion which can takeover all of North Korea in 1 month according to North Korean estimates, half that according to ROK estimates.

Very interesting. Kim insists on nukes to deter ROK invasion?, which sounds contradicting peaceful push by Moon. Is he and his ilks only trying to protect their lives? Does CCP, not to mention Putin, allow that scenario to happen unless you are talking about ROK completely detached from US?

0 ( +3 / -3 )

@Samit

It just doesn’t matter how many days ROK needs to takeover all of North. You have been insisting enough on ROK's military strength true or not.

So What is it really? What is it that you are describing ROK's invasion?

Anything Kim Jong Un confessed only to Trump?

0 ( +3 / -3 )

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