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Tesla sees slower 2024 volume growth as earnings miss estimates

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By John BIERS

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Tesla like all automakers is concerned about demand, especially due to HIGH interest rates/see below.

Tesla cut car prices some 25% year over year in 4Q with record deliveries, yet customer's financing (some 90%) monthly payments going UP, not technically inflationary, but try telling that to buyers, whether cars or homes.

HIGH Monthly Payments due to financing costs, due to inflation, due to Govt. Money Printing = KEY reason only 13% feel their financial situation's improved under Biden.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Tesla's sitting on fortress balance sheet, no debt, they're waiting for rates to drop before launching new models and factories. Still deliveries up approx. 40% for 2023.

Nobody expects the Global economy to accelerate in 2024, rather just the opposite, hence their conservative approach, like entire capital intensive Auto industry.

Tesla Semi will bring in approx. $10B in incremental revenue growth in 2024, along with Cyber Truck production ramp, they'll do VERY well relative to the industry, especially with their growing AI capabilities.

Are you excited?! Then buy the dip!

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Naw.

The early adopters are done, they are poorly assembled, the cute waiting time thing for a charger is old now, they don't get the mileage, advertised, unless you drive 45 kph, accident rate is too high, repair costs are obscene and insurance rates skyrocketing.

And people don't like them anymore.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

Hertz is getting rid of 20,000 Teslas and going back to ICE. The bloom is off the Musk.

The first Cyber Trucks are breaking down. The government subsidy is more than the darn truck price.

Get rid of other peoples taxpayer subsidies for Tesla groupies and the company goes belly up.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

2020hindsightsToday  10:24 am JST

HopeSpringsEternal

There are just no legacy auto dealerships, or those working in the legacy auto industry that support Biden's EV mandates, that's crystal clear.

And yet all the automakers are moving to EVs. They have no choice, because China is now one of the biggest EV makers in the world, so the US has adapt or die.

So Biden's EV mandates are helping US auto companies and workers.

Tesla's caught up in this complex EV policy and political above. It was covered in their conference in fact. Reason US legacy auto makers have thru out 2023 announced huge delays and really scaled back their EV investments:

1) EV supply chains dependent upon China, especially material for batteries, domestic sources take TIME

2) Politics, 2024 election, industry and workers stressed

3) Pure play EV companies like Tesla have supply chain resiliency and thus legacy companies not competitive

For Tesla, Rivian and other EV only makers, especially Chinese, more time to expand their market share and EV technological advantages and experience.

ICE going way of the dodo bird, Uber 100% committed to EVs, largest vehicle user out there, drivers, customers, everyone LOVES quiet, clean, cost savings and time savings due to overnight charging, less maintenance etc.

Uber's a HUGE Tesla customer FYI and Norway today, over 90% of all new vehicle sales = EV. See the reality.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

That's because Norway is blessed with a grid powered by hydro.

Uber has burned through billions of dollars without a penny of profit because the institutional investors are stuck pouring more money into it because the end game was supposed to be autonomous vehicles ti get rid of pesky drivers. Hasn't happened. Tesla can't deliver it and it likely be legislated away.

Stock pumpers are cringeworthy

4 ( +5 / -1 )

I was forced to rent an EV in Florida recently because all gas models were out and would only purchase one as a second car. In Florida anyways the infrastructure to recharge, let alone quickly, is just not there. Hybrids seem like a great deal however.

9 ( +9 / -0 )

Their Tesla 2 coming, 25K before Govt. Tax Credits, they're just pushing back the launch due to rates and a tough global economic backdrop.

For Hertz, insurance problematic, many drivers unfamiliar with Tesla and EVs in general.

Charging stations rapidly rolling out, charge times improving, but approx. 90% of Tesla owners and their charge history is at home overnight. Gas stations consolidating rapidly on the other hand, do the math.

Uber's the better consumer comparison, Uber drives LOVE Tesla, make a lot more $ too! Uber's gross revenues soon larger than Toyota FYI, no small fish.

People love not going to gas stations and no more oil changes, plus their braking systems are good for 100k.

Find me legacy auto company growing deliveries 40% in a flat global market with rising financings costs? Let's not forget their many AI and robotic initiatives or ramp up of Semi and pickup, easily $20B in NEW revenue in 2024.

Tesla shareholders and owners = HAPPY

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

 In Florida anyways the infrastructure to recharge, let alone quickly, is just not there. Hybrids seem like a great deal however.

I fully agree an second that ....for now hybrids are the way to go, seems Toyota was right after all.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

Musk, who has a penchant for surprising investors, added to worries earlier this month when he suggested he could look for alternatives to Tesla for artificial intelligence and robotics developments unless his Tesla stake were boosted to 25 percent from about 13 percent.

So Tesla's earnings drop and Musk expects to be rewarded?

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Uber's a HUGE Tesla customer FYI

FYI:

BYD beats Tesla for a second straight year after producing more than 3 million cars in 2023

(news source)

I don't understand what is special about Tesla.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

FYI

BYD overtook Tesla to become the world’s biggest EV manufacturer in 2022. For 2023, BYD is expected to deliver over three million EVs, compared to 1.8 million units for Tesla.However, Tesla remains the largest BEV player globally. With the rollout of the refreshed Model 3 and the Cybertruck, as well as an anticipated compact crossover and hatchback in 2024 and 2026 respectively, it is forecast to be the leading EV maker globally from 2025.

https://www.ev-volumes.com/

2 ( +2 / -0 )

nishikatToday  04:19 pm JST

Uber's a HUGE Tesla customer FYI

FYI:

BYD beats Tesla for a second straight year after producing more than 3 million cars in 2023

(news source)

I don't understand what is special about Tesla.

BYD's figures include hybrids, 1.6M EVs

Why special? Tesla's got great synergies for services, think autonomous driving, charging network, insurance and financing. They're all multi-billion $ businesses with STRONG growth prospects, leveraging their AI & data.

Just charging, most analysts peg their network at $30B by 2030, serious cash flow, margins +50%, FSD's FAR more potential, ride share service partnership biz model.

Next, their battery tech and manufacturing/giga press, about 10 years ahead of industry. Model 2 many believe +5M unit sales by early 2030s, labor costs far lower etc.

Their robotics biz, simply enormous market potential

Data synergies with other Elon businesses, like X, day 1 Tesla's been a data, robotics and software co, have far more real automotive data than rest of world combined.

Great energy biz, growing fast, synergies with auto biz, think solar, battery storage and free home charging.

Some reasons many top investors believe Tesla can become most valuable company on earth at some point, given richest most successful entrepreneur in history of the world's running it, not some idiot auto exec.

Nuff said, buy the dip, dollar cost average, ditto Uber.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Forget to 'plug' Tesla's Semi and Cyber Truck 'ramp' in 2024, that'll be minimum $20 Billion in incremental sales, that'll likely double again in 2025, I've got it modeled for $50 billion in 2025.

Tesla WAY ahead in commercial trucking, company CFO's LOVE it, purely $numbers ROI game, no bs

Most don't understand, industry's EV supply chain constrained, except established pure plays and Chinese firms, legacy industry's unable to build out, their bleeding market share EVERY day.

No sharp buyer wants hybrid, given they're NO new gas stations, shrinking, rapid charging station build out, etc. most places EXCEPT Japan, just like Cloud computing back in the day, you snooze you LOOSE.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Peter NeilToday  01:27 pm JST

That's because Norway is blessed with a grid powered by hydro.

Uber has burned through billions of dollars without a penny of profit because the institutional investors are stuck pouring more money into it because the end game was supposed to be autonomous vehicles ti get rid of pesky drivers. Hasn't happened. Tesla can't deliver it and it likely be legislated away.

Stock pumpers are cringeworthy

Easy on name calling pal, obviously you're not in markets. This can't never could negative mentality's pathetic, guess we'll never get to Mars?! Good thing champions run great companies, pushing the envelope!

Uber now massively cash flow positive, takes money to make money, their investments akin to Amazon's build and scale strategy, SERIOUS IP. Simply informing JT readers to help offset many ill-informed - we tracking?!

Of course, buy and hold = way to go for MOST!

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

It mystifies and saddens me why anyone would buy anything from Musk, given the way he treats his workers and the rest of humanity in general.

He also supports China's annexation of Taiwan:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/14/business/elon-musk-taiwan-china-comments-intl-hnk/index.html

...and thinks Ukraine should cede territory to the Russian invaders:

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/musk-suggests-ukraine-cede-crimea-draws-rebuke-zelenskyy-rcna50528

He is a terrible individual, and anyone who supports his businesses is enabling this behavior.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Tesla's got great synergies for services

Boring company?

like X

Elon never wanted to buy X. He was forced to.

BYD's figures...

https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/global-electric-vehicle-market-share/

BYD gaining and Tesla losing. I would take a Tesla but I might consider other EV makers. What is so special about Tesla?

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

So Tesla's earnings drop and Musk expects to be rewarded?

EV maker Lucid stock has dropped 94%, churns through investment like a drunken sailor, never comes close to any targets, money flushing down the toilet, and the CEO got a $400 million “performance” pay last year.

Their reduced to importing small EV trucks from China and trying to nameplate them as Lucid. And can’t sell them either.

Look at Nikolai, the hydrogen truck ponzie scheme, where everything out of the CEO’s mouth was a lie. But he sure sucked cash out for himself.

Carnival hucksters.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

EV makers are taking a beating, I expected the value of these cars to plummet!! The cold winters have exposed the battery flaws.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Tesla dumped another $50 billion in valuation today, pal.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Tesla down 12% today. 27% on the year.

Short sellers made billions today, pal.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Tesla lost $80 billion in valuation by the end of the day

And just announced today a recall of 200,000 of their golf carts with doors.

How's that stock doing?

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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