Tokyo apartment prices rise to near bubble-era high in 2020

Overpriced Tower mansions and the growing number of abandoned houses is not a good sign...

I don't really get why would one like to pay an overpriced tag for something that would loose 20 percent of its value the second you turn the key and enter genkan...

Renovation of existing homes is a better option.

Rather have some land, however small. So good news for me.

Reaching prices 30 years ago? Not a sign of the economy but inflation, the cost of materials increases and the fact there are massive shortages of builders. The price of land has NOT increased just the cost of the buildings.... with a falling birth rate, no plans for increated immigration it's super massive bubble.

Low birth rate, no immigratiom, Just waiting the bubble explosion and few years to get a great house at low price.

Great news for me as someone who owns land in central Tokyo. My advice is like one of the above posters, buy an older house in a good location that's already lost its value then renovate. You are good for 20years in it then sell it and the land will have appreciated at the same time as paying 20 years mortgage loan off.

Do not buy older apartments, the management fees increase as the property gets older, I saw one older mansion property with a 40,000yen management fee every month!!. So even after you pay off your mortgage and you 'own' it you still have to pay that every month.

Prices are up but sales are way down-there are going to be thousands of zombie apartments all over Tokyo!

The number of sales fell 12.8% from a year earlier to 27,228 units, however, down around 70% from 1990 levels.

Prices of newly-built apartments in the Tokyo area rose 1.7% last year, approaching the record highs seen during Japan's asset-inflated bubble era that ended in the early 1990s, the country's Real Estate Economic Institute said Tuesday.

Now plot that on a graph with wages over the same period.

Great news as worldwide a great number of people have not been able to pay rent for months.

Rather have some land, however small. So good news for me.

Sorry to break the bad news but single house in Tokyo are up considerably also.

According to experts and realestate companies the time to buy was 2019.

A house ( use the term loosely) near where we bought (in December 2019) just sold for 10 million over what we paid, They are calling it new but officially it is a renovation.

The land is just over half the size of ours, and under the new regulations it would be to small to build on if they ever have to actually build a new place. It has one tiny room on the 1st floor and parking for a Kei car, 2nd floor is LDK but you would be hard pressed to fit a kitchen table and sofa, the 3rd floor 2 really tiny bedrooms.

Prices are now out of reality.

What happened to deflation suddenly?

Ulysses, when you are in your 70s, living in the countryside in a single storey house makes much more sense. You probably have a pension and don't have to commute to go to work. You are unlikely to get a mortgage for tens of milions of yen anyway and you can buy a nice house for less than 10 million. Local health and support services are also excellent in the countryside.

In the bubble people bought and paid ridiculous prices for property because property prices always go up. When the bubble burst, they learnt property prices can also go down.

I bought mine a few years ago and did some research on the long term costs on an apartment vs an independent house. An apartment works out much cheaper and has more privacy than an independent house stuck between apartments.

Not sure where you got your information but in Japan it is the land that has most of the value.

The older house we bought retained over 80% of its value even after 20 years as compared to the apartment I lived in in a very well known "mansion" dropped to about 1/3 of it original cost over the same time.

A house with land I can renovate as I please, rebuild if I want, no need to pay any monthly fees, etc...

As for privacy, oh come on, I spent over 20 years in an apartment/mansion a single house is by far way more private, I can make noise, I don't have neighbours banging on to walls, floor, I don't hear neighbours tv at night, no elevator to deal with, and having to hold some fake niceties conversation because I am stuck in an elevator or hallway with a neighbour.

Oh and I can go out in my tiny private backyard and sit down have coffee and chat with my wife. I can also do the same thing on either of our 2 balconies.

Yes a nice bottle of wine our little table outside in our private little garden in the evening, no apartment can come close to that.

Six hundred and ninety million yen for an apartment! Even if it were doable, I wouldn't. Glad I don't live in Tokyo or in a way overpriced tower mansion with 300 other people. There is so much empty space down in Muira and Yokosuka. No elevators, the only door I see in my own, no shared space, no noise from any upstairs, downstairs or next-door neighbors, multiple floors, parking right out in front, and a great unobstructed ocean view, with a very manageable mortgage and FAR from the rat race capital. I just don't see the allure of these apartments.

@robert maes

Actually the building quality is far superior to most places including north America.

Earthquake and fire building codes insure that.

Now the finishings like Doors,, kitchen cabinets, in mass produced condos and housing projects are far inferior.

My place the bones of the building far out preforms any of today's mass produced houses in North America but the inside finishing is to say the least very sad and poor.

But then I have a very solid building that I can now gradually upgrade to what I want.

My siblings in North America have nice big houses nice beautiful kitchens, bathrooms, etc.. but would come crashing down in the first sizable earthquake, and with tarpaper roofs will go up in flames if their neighbour's house catches fire and burning cinders land on it.

Here in Tokyo most newer houses have cement fiber external walls and man-made slate roofing to prevent fire from spreading.

Once again, Tokyo-centric! This is "old" news down here in Okinawa where prices in some areas have already blown past the one's in the bubble era! There are "used" mansions being sold here for over ￥100,000,000　and that was about two years ago.

Land prices here have sky rocketed a long time ago!

drive the average apartment price up to 60.84 million yen

The price is high, but a Flat 35 government backed loan of 45 million yen for 35 years is 133,000 yen a month (at 1.3% interest). Even with an extra apartment management fee, that's going to be cheaper than renting anything near as good.

5 years ago I also pondered land Vs apartment. Apartment values have been steadily increasing for a number of years (prices of the only tower mansion in my area were higher than when it was first built 15 years earlier) but land was steady or dropping. We figured land has more growth potential so went that route.

Buying an older property in my area was difficult as people don't tend to sell until it becomes a pushover job, and we ended up paying the budget and buying new so miss out on being able to create value through renovation but no regrets. Having outdoor space has given me no end of DIY opportunity.

Who are buying these? How they can they afford it in this pandemic economy?

@ulysses

I am talking about Tokyo very much in Tokyo 4 minutes from 3 different Stations 3 different train/metro lines.

No mansions towering over just rows of single family homes ( technically most of my neighbours are double kitchen homes so w families.)

No park to look over and thank goodness. Lived next to a park for 6 years was thinking of self harm from the noise, the people with their barking dogs all day.

3rd floor balcony has a nice view of the city and Sky tree, walk out my front door get in my car if I need to no need to go up and down in an elevator to bring in groceries, etc...

Mortgage payments about the same as a comparable condo without the monthly condo fees, no need to pay for parking.

Like I said I have done both and I actually know the cost and it is far cheaper in my house on a monthly basis.

Either way, the rental is too high and buying is too high. No jobs that pay well to make it worth the cost of buying or renting. Until people are willing to make drastic sacrifices the greedy builders, owners and developers will not bring market prices down.

Cleo, I think he means "Shinkuju-ku" or Shinjuku area, and there are many nice places around there, not everything is like Shinjuku station. I've lived in Shinjuku-ku for 5 years, in a very nice quiet area

Prices are up but sales are way down-there are going to be thousands of zombie apartments all over Tokyo!

They will be rented out and the renter will pay the landlords mortgage loan off. why would an apartment be empty unless it is in a bad location far from central Tokyo.

This must be driven by people leaving the countryside and smaller towns, wanting to live in the big city.

Not sure I'd want to own an apartment built on reclaimed land if there was a large earthquake though. Better to live in a house in suburbs.

Japan is riding a perfect real estate bubble. Overpriced and below par quality apartments with prices artificially kept high by a few controlling real estate giants like mitsui, Sumitomo..

sales down 12 %, no new buyers except the upper 0,1% earners supporting their own real estate invests.

prices will collapse in 2nd quarter 2021

Wow, you people are rich.

Retiring in Japan is dirt cheap. Don’t buy new.

Tokyo residents appeared more interested in moving to new developments in central locations to reduce their commuting times, it said.

So is Tokyo going to become a high rise apartment city like Singapore and Hong Kong?

This must be driven by people leaving the countryside and smaller towns, wanting to live in the big city.

Actually according to fudosan friends it is mostly Tokyo people looking for bigger more modern place and the driving factor is space and high speed internet.

As many now find themselves looking at permanently telework full time on the kitchen table is not a good option.

My 2 children in their early 20s friends were fine in a one room before covid but now with most full time telework they are desperate to find a place with at least 1 LDK.

Those with family are all looking for bigger places.

Ulysses, with respect, the average building quality in Japan is crap.

overpriced crap

@Kniknaknokkaer

Bought our house just outside the yamanote 4 minutes from 3 stations/ 3 train/metro lines, December 2019, older needed some maintenance work in the outside, which we did. Still needs the interior updated,

In the past few months we have been offered over 20% more than what we paid and the cost of repairs we did included.

It has gone a bit crazy the place isn't worth that not with the non updated interior.

Sound like a nice thing to sell and make quick profit but then it will cost a fortune to buyvanother place.

Retiring in Japan is dirt cheap. Don’t buy new.

Perhaps in an alternate universe.

The price based on square metres in Tokyo or other major cities is by far one of the highest.

Don't confuse a 3 bedroom in Japan and compare it to a 3 bedroom in most western countries. Sure they all have 3 bedrooms but the other countries the same space would be 5 or 6 bedrooms in Japan.

My mortgage, property tax together is 30,000 less a month than my previous rental and we have parking on our property that was another 20,000 a month.

So total 50,000 a month than renting home and parking.

Next due to the Japanese way of home loans, the mortgage payment includes 10 years home insurance, flood, fire, theft, liability, ( 5 years earthquake) and to top it all off a bigger place and no renewal fees every 2 years or worries that the owner will decide to stop renting and we have to find another and again pay key money, fudosan fees, and deposit.

If you can get a loan buy something.

Oh and after payment 10, 20, 30 years rent you are left with nothing as with a condo or house even if the value drops at least you can sell it and get some money back.

@kohakuebisu

4 million yen is what just one of my children's student loans are here in Japan, as are many of their friends, this is a deity little secret many in Japan don't talk about, my wife only finished paying her student loan off about 5 years ago ( thus why we waited to buy a house).

Changed everything in our house to LED myself, don't need any WiFi connected stuff just sucks more power. Japanese houses/ condos are so tiny, if someone cannot get up to reach for the light switch that is at most 2 metres away they should perhaps think about moving into a senior care home.

Hear is what I mean about the west.

An American I know in Tokyo complained and complained about how his TV room back home had a great big tv, so he just had to buy the biggest tv here he could find.

So now he has that giant TV boasts about it all the time.

On problem it takes up the entier wall and the sofa is just about 2 metres from it way to close.

I know you dislike Tokyo, why I don't get it.

Not just Tokyo, any big city. All that tarmac and concrete, crowds, traffic, bad air.

I like having clean air to breathe, space to move around without bumping into other folk. It's great having fields to walk the dogs in, an allotment next to the house to grow veggies, a bit of a garden for herbs and flowers and the occasional BBQ.

Nice, not nosy, neighbours who are there when you want them, but never get in your face. Much more of a community than in the faceless concrete jungle.

I don't get why people like the city.

@kohakuebisu

You forgot to add in monthly condo maintenance fees.

The one I lived in started at 15,000 yen a month and went up by 2,500 yen for each floor so those living on the top floor (10th) it was 37,500 yen a month. Now I don't know if that way of calculation is common but in most cases lower floors pay less than upper floors in condos fees.

60 million will buy quite a nice house in Tokyo near a station in places like Taito-ku, Kita-ku, Arakawa-ku, Sumida-ku, even Nerima-ku,

City property tax will be about 80,000 a year, the house at that price will probably have parking which a condo cost extra or in some cases one can also buy the parking space at extra cost. And if you don't need the house parking you can do like my neighbour and rent it out.

Now I know my neighbour's mortgage payment is around 120,000 yen a month and he gets 25,000 yen renting his parking.he has a double kitchen so his parents live separate on the first floor.

All and all it is a sweet setup, a 3 LDK on 2 floors with toilet and full bath, a 1 LDK with toilet and full bath on the 1st floor and monthly payments including property tax about 102,000 yen ( this is after the parking space income deducted) oh and no need to declare the parking space income they put that in his mother's name she makes less than the amount that needs to be declared.

I don't understand. I read that more people are LEAVING Tokyo because they are doing teleworking and don't have to live downtown near their office, which should reduce demand and prices. But instead prices are rising. Based on all the real estate ads I get, my place here in Shinjuku is worth more now that when I bought it almost 15 years ago. If I sold it now, I will have been paid to live in Shinjuku.

 I would wager that the average person in Tokyo is more financially secure than the average person in those cities,

That is mostly due to the way people in Japan view financial responsibility.

Most pay off 100% of their credit card bill each month, the idea of having tens of thousands of dollars in depts on credit cards is unthinkable in Japan.

Look at a Japanese kitchen in a nice house and then look at the over the top kitchens in a similar priced house in North America.

The gadget must in the west is much of the problem.

I know far more Japanese than people back in North America and I don't know one person in Japan that has smart house gadgets to turn on and off the lights, change the tv channel, pick the door, etc...

But the few people I do still know back in North America most now have all installed this stuff in their homes and in 90% of the cases it is all on credit.

It's easier to be financially responsible when you don't come out of college with 40k USD of student debt and the percentage of wages that goes on rent in Tokyo is at least 10% lower than in NYC, SF, London etc.

fwiw, smart lighting can be done cheaply with wifi sockets and Yeelight dimmable/multicolour bulbs. I've done a bit and I'm a proud miser! Nasty lighting is quite common in Japanese houses and its an easy thing to improve. Our Japanese room wasn't nasty but had the typical big light in the middle. It's much better with two dimmable lights on the floor.

Cities are full of cool things, so make sure you do them if you live in one.

Renovation of existing homes is a better option.

exactly why would any sane person pay 60million yen for an aprtment only to40=50% value in 10~15yrs

I bought a 3 storey steel concrete building 440m3 20yrs old for less than 30million including land, new price for the building was almost 100million yen

Won't buy in Tokyo but actively looking at a place in the regions for our retirement where we'll be in Japan half the year. Plenty of bargains out there, but specifically looking at a house - not wanting to get captured by out of control management fees for an apartment.

Either way, the rental is too high and buying is too high. 

They are big sums of money, but compared to London, New York, San Francisco, Sydney, etc., the percentage of wages that goes on housing in Tokyo is not going to be especially high. I would wager that the average person in Tokyo is more financially secure than the average person in those cities, say if you suddenly needed 2k USD equivalent to pay for an unexpected cost (broken boiler, washing machine, etc). There are many people in other major world cities living pretty much hand to mouth with no savings at all. This includes people whose job titles and gross salaries sound very middle class. Firms in the cities I mention will also be far more trigger happy about laying off staff compared to Japanese ones.

Tokyo residents appeared more interested in moving to new developments in central locations to reduce their commuting times

Japanese resistance to teleworking will play strongly into this, but I wonder if another factor could be the increasing number of full-time working women. There will be much more resistance to a one-hour commute when its not just the husband doing it.

So, I guess the government stopped "trying" to get Tokyo people to move to other areas of Japan?

Good job guys, as usual.

No park to look over and thank goodness. Lived next to a park for 6 years was thinking of self harm from the noise, the people with their barking dogs all day.

I actually enjoy hearing the sounds of children, look out of the window during day time to watch toddlers from the local play school, cannot think of anything break from work.

Like I said I have done both and I actually know the cost and it is far cheaper in my house on a monthly basis.

So have I and actually understood the pricing, the condo is cheaper than the house, has better privacy, allows social interaction and I am not sure what you have against elevators but mine works fine and I take the stairs when I need the exercise.

@Akula

Having just spent a year in 2019 looking, if I hadn't found what we wanted in Tokyo my best Choices were Saitama and Kanagawa.

Near Yokohama there are still nice large lots with nice older home need fixing up but reasonable prices, only problem is a car is almost a necessity.

But Kawaguchi is great, still some good older homes with nice land not big though, near everything that anyone could need or want, close to Tokyo by train, no car in many areas is fine, they even have a small really convenient China/Thailand/Philippines town area which is great for real food one would get in those countries.

That was our backup plan had we not found the place we now have.

And you are correct with the condo fees had that problem before, not to mention the condo council that regulates everything. I had air-conditioning on the veranda but needed it in the front apartment room there was a space built for it next to the entrance but the council said no because if I did it everyone would want the same and it wouldn't look nice.

So why did the builder make a place for it for all the apartments? They just said it is there but no one can use it.

Forget that mess, oh and be very careful with places built on private roads they are also the de as condos need owners association permission to do anything and if there is any road repair, sewage repair then you have to pay part of it even if it isn't your house that is affected.

you can get all of that in Tokyo. Just more expensive

So why pay more for the same? Where I am, it isn't something I can get if I look hard and pay lots of cash, it's all around me, free or at least reasonable, and I can use my money on other stuff.

And I'm pretty sure Mitaka, Nerima, Fuchu don't have some magic bubble around them that keeps out the bad air from the rest of Tokyo.

I had/still have, an apartment/flat in central London, Shaftesbury Avenue, ended up having purchase it off the family, the block needed total renovation, hundreds of thousands of pounds, £60,000 alone on the noise reduction glazing, that was 13 years ago.

Living in a city is a nightmare. Whether it be Tokyo, or London.

my place here in Shinjuku is worth more now that when I bought it almost 15 years ago. If I sold it now, I will have been paid to live in Shinjuku.

You couldn't pay me to live in Shinjuku.

Cleo, I think he means "Shinkuju-ku" or Shinjuku area, and there are many nice places around there, not everything is like Shinjuku station.

Let me rephrase it.

You couldn't pay me to live in Tokyo (except perhaps Ogasawara).

My in-laws live in 'a very nice quiet area' in Shibuya-ku, I know the area well. It's not for me.

Lack of manpower in the construction field is costly and real estate players don't want to lose their greed either. My past experience know that for sure.

Quality price in Japan can be very good in some areas for existing houses.

Why need to live in very urban areas, I don't understand.

I have lived in Kannai, Yokohama and there is so a lack of real social exchange there and sense of community that it is a repellent to me if you have known what it is like to live in a house with nice garden and with neighbours you discuss and share.

Cleo, you can get all of that in Tokyo. Just more expensive.

For example, in Mitaka, Nerima, Fuchu (just to name places where I have lived), you can live in a nice house, with a bit of a garden, and lots of green surroundings. Of course, much more expensive than in the middle of nowhere in Gunma or so

I struggle with Nagoya, let alone Tokyo or Osaka,

Lego-land, living in a oblong brick.

I cannot image what the experience is like for families together in lockdown.

Kochi is heaven sent, Ino town is wide open spaces in comparison.

I can sit on the patio and enjoy the full moon tonight.

That’s really quite patriotic...With about 7mio.$ you could probably have a nice little yacht , a pretty beach mansion, private housekeeping maids and private barkeepers starting every afternoon, all on Barbados and the like for the rest of your remaining days, in addition almost corona and tax free there. Of course, online business or financial trading, also with Tokyo, still possible. lol

Sounds like a large number of foreigners complaining about what they left and trying to force change where they are now.

Ok I may be severely dyslexic but I find the Article oddly written and difficult to follow.

Forget the 690 million place, but explain where they get the average condo price being 60 million?

Explain how big, where, etc..?

Sorry but I have looked, in many past of Tokyo including the new construction right on the sumida river not far from where I live.

Luxury, waterfront, 3 LDK under 50 million pull in not far right on Meiji dori 6 minutes to the nearest station an the price for an even larger 3 LDK drops to just around 45 million and these are big, more square metres than my house and by a lot.

Most condos sold in Tokyo are 2 or 3 LDK and few other than those in very prime locations run 60 million.

More information is needed until then I will view this article with skepticism and hyperbole Along the lines of and article once tittle Japan the land of the $500 steak, it went on and on about how expensive going out to eat steak in Japan was, pointing out the outliers and not the every day or usual. This looks like another article like that.

We would love to live in a house in the mountains. There is no advantage to living in a big city at our age. A nice house in a tiny village would be perfect.

Unlike the last time, this time is solely driven by massive speculation by foreigners (mirrored to the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis) and declining living standards across Japan.

@cleo

Done both here and back where I come from.

Came to a reality check some time ago, country living means more cars, more land, less nature, we cannot keep expanding, so as nice as it is, at some point we either have to stop having children or decide to take up less of a physical foot print.

So if everyone in the cities decided to move into nice large houses out in the countryside, imagine the impact on the wildlife, the environment, mass transport, cycling, walking to get your needs or to go to work, is far better than millions using cars and that is how things are in the countryside.

My children now adults don't have a driver's license and see no need for it, their friends from university that come from the countryside all drive their families have multiple cars, the same for my family back in North America. Like it or not humans are going to need to decide, the environment is a priority and we have to accept living in smaller reducing our footprint or our comfort and wants and forget the wildlife and environment. We cannot have both.

Japan is riding a perfect real estate bubble. Overpriced and below par quality apartments with prices artificially kept high by a few controlling real estate giants like mitsui, Sumitomo.. 

It's not a bubble yet and there is nothing wrong with the quality of the apartments.

I bought mine a few years ago and did some research on the long term costs on an apartment vs an independent house. An apartment works out much cheaper and has more privacy than an independent house stuck between apartments.

Also when you are in in your 70s climbing up an down the stairs on a house is not going to be easy!!!

Not sure where you got your information but in Japan it is the land that has most of the value.

Sure if you want to sell it off, but do a comparison of living in an apartment and living in a house and ht eocsts including the renovations etc.

As for privacy, oh come on

I dont have any apartment complexes overlooking my house, can sit in the balcony looking over a park and have total privacy. If you compare that with any independent house here in Tokyo, none of them offer that.

I don't have neighbours banging on to walls, floor, I don't hear neighbours tv at night, no elevator to deal with, and having to hold some fake niceties conversation because I am stuck in an elevator or hallway with a neighbour.

Neither do I, the walls are thick and I never hear a neighbor.

And I dont find social interaction irritating, nothing wrong in talking to neighbors, their kids trying to practice their English on me etc etc.

Oh and I can go out in my tiny private backyard and sit down have coffee and chat with my wife. I can also do the same thing on either of our 2 balconies.

Sure if you live in the countryside, but I am talking about Tokyo city and none of the houses near my area offer that.

@cleo

I know you dislike Tokyo, why I don't get it. It's not like it is Nagoya the worst place to exist in Japan.

I live in a very nice shitamachi area, great neighbours, quiet, close to everything and by that I mean we can walk to everything we need.

No I would never want to live in central Tokyo Chuo-ku, minato-ku, Shibuya-ku, Shinjuku, but you can't beat living in shitamachi, still plenty of mom and pop places to eat and drink, ( well not at this time with covid).

I wouldn't trade living here for some nosy countryside area or overcrowded noisy central Tokyo.