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© KYODOYen falls back to 149 zone against U.S. dollar despite apparent intervention
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Chabbawanga
Hope they have learned their lesson. They might as well have set fire it.
Abhi
These interventions seldom work. They are expensive and temporary.
The are only two scenarios when JPY can stop falling -
1) US FED pivot on their rate increases - which will happen perhaps in Q1 next year.
2) BOJ starts increasing rates which won't happen until Kuroda is at helm
So, prepare for 160 by December ! I hate to say it but that's where market is headed in current scenario. And market is not emotional rather brutal.
Chabbawanga
absolute best case situation
Tell_me_bout_it
This is becoming like a daily Coronavirus report.
No matter how many QUASI-states-of-emergency they made, numbers did not magically came down, did they?
These bunch of 70 year old farce politicians never learn.
Rakuraku
Kuroda does not even need to hike interest rates but just to hint that he may hike them. He needs to be more ambiguous about what he will do. Recently he more or less said that he world not hike for the next 2 to 3 years! Of course with this type of declaration there is only way for the JPY, down.
In this context it is a nearly guaranteed bet to sell the JPY.
Cricky
Kuroda he doesn’t care, he has a brilliantly high salary and well past retirement age so it’s just extra cash he can pack his coffin with. Really he doesn’t care about tax payers. He could as he does just say bla, bla bla, and still keep his well payed job, nobody cares what he says. It’s hopeless to expect any government official to care about you.
gogogo
Giving money away to traders... This tactic doesn't work in 2022
Yubaru
Dont forget that Japan has well over $1 TRILLION in foreign reserves, that the $80 billion here or there, is not going to make a difference.
It was a knee-jerk reaction, and as mentioned, all that has to be done to force a change would be to hint at raising interest rates.
It always gets me that banks can borrow money for damn near free, get away with giving next to nothing in interest for deposits, yet charge close to 9% or 10% for some loans. Even student loans cost over 3% interest, many higher. (Yup we the consumer are getting it in the backside pretty hard!)
Abhi
Agree !! FX and Bond markets run on the intentions/sentiment.
Japan Violet
There is no policy forthcoming from the "leadership". The goal of these men is to get the job, not what they would do for the country when they get the job. No change, no policy, only pretence.
Sven Asai
Instead of burning all the many tons of money into nothing , they better could burn one ton less and give it to me instead. I promise I don’t complain then even rates of 175 or 200, I think I can stand it with that one ton in the back.
Chabbawanga
Without a doubt
Roten
Wow, what a surprise. No changes in fundamentals, just a bit of jaw-jaw.
While this may make blips in the FOREX markets, hints without actions will only make for daily fluctuations. I expect 175 yen to a dollar by next spring/summer unless there are concrete policy changes in Japan or in the United States. And Japan is the only country that can make policy changes that really affect its economic health.
Blacklabel
Appreciate all the money I made today and last Friday.
but this idea doesn’t work.
Mark
150 is perfect, easy to remember and manage.
Henri
The USD will get weaker when Trump gets to power and it will be clear how blow up the north sea 1 and 2 pipe line .. biden told a year ago that the US will stop this pipe line one day .. now Germany and Sweden run away from the investication !! they know how did it and dont want to tell .. US natural gas is sold 4x the price in EUropa now . nice profit ..
Cricky
Apparently, think is obvious
JTC
Intervention is a costly business - something like 2.84 trillion yen, being spent during September alone, and for what ? One has to wonder about that. Perhaps some OTC yen contracts influenced the timing of the intervention ?
Peter Neil
It could be worse. Remember when 1 USD was 76 JPY?
Steve Morgan
Peter NeilToday 08:31 pm JST
It could be worse. Remember when 1 USD was 76 JPY?
And I also remember when it was Y360 to the dollar--I hope it goes to 200
Yubaru
Geez now people are crediting me with things I never said. Thanks!
Contracted in dollars perhaps, but paid for in yen at the current rate. If Japan was using it's foreign currency reserves to purchase oil and other imports, to prop up the economy, one would not be seeing the sudden jump in the inflation rate.
Randy Johnson
The japanese love this. Makes their products cheap. It's product dumping.
Just like the old days.
Gosh, didn't see this coming when the folly began two years ago.
That's why the japanese love the political left. Opens up America for their dumping.
Michael Aurelius
Watch "Kyle Bass- coming crisis in Japan" on YouTube(2013). It will educate you on the perfect economic storm that is approaching Japan and the first tell tell signs are the sliding yen.
smithinjapan
""We are in a situation where we are confronting speculative moves strictly."
Hahaha... right. You took a rowboat and steered it towards a whirlpool, and now that you're being sucked down you decided it was a bad idea and started paddling to get out. But guess what, that whirlpool isn't letting us go, thank you. We are stuck in that downward spiral now and no one will help. The question is why you keep letting the man pushing us all down (Kuroda) keep steering us down further instead of letting him go down the hole and trying to lighten the load a little.
But yes, "confront is strictly" while the nation sinks, by all means. Heck, give it a stern look, too. I expect talks of major tax increases by the end of the month with a "can't be helped" attitude, all as Kuroda refuses to stop the ultra-easing of the nation into a black hole.
8T
I will say it again, 155 before Christmas.
Septim Dynasty
Next year, it can get above 360 if the war in Taiwan happens.
Fighto!
Not likely. The Japanese yen is a "safe haven" currency. If there were a war on Japans doorstep we would likely see the yen appreciate not fall. Remember the disaster in 2011 - Japans yen went through the roof as yen was repatriated on a massive scale back to Japan.
Everyone rushes to yen in times of disaster.
Sh1mon M4sada
To be fair, they DCA'ed ¥ens, they haven't lost anything until they need to sell at lower value. Wasted efforts, sure, but it's probably domestic politics.
To me there's a global pattern emerging anyway, countries that don't have a lot of debt in U$D are starting to decouple from the feds, with Japan's debt mostly in ¥en, looks like Japan leadsctge way here. Or put it another way, countries that have debts in USD are forced to hike interest rate, even when in a severe recession already.
fxgai
Circumstances have changed. Japanese policy is one of the disasters now.
Yubaru
Doesnt seem so this time!
Peter Neil
I’ve been reading about this for over 30 years.