Japan logs record deficit in January on energy, slower export growth

I can't see a decent future here.

@dan It all depends on what you want in life.

I suspect the yen has a lot of room to drop further.

I remember that many pro-Japan fanatics, in both Japan and outside of Japan, worshipped at the feet of Shinzo Abe, the most powerful "Korean" in Japanese history (before the UC scandal, and it's likely that he has Korean heritage). They defended Abenomics to death, and one of their pro-arguments involves the current account surplus that Japan always has. Of course, the "net world creditor status" can mythically erase Japan's debt problems through the current account surplus.

From 2020 onward, none of these ever matters. The "net creditor status" is gradually dropping as Japan sells its global assets to retreat from home. One of the most concerning signs is that Japan shreds off the holding of US treasury assets, the source of the mythical claims behind the "net world creditor status" propaganda.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/funds/japanese-investors-step-up-overseas-asset-sales-this-year-2022-02-18/

https://www.cfr.org/blog/disappearing-japanese-bid-global-bonds

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Bonds/Japanese-investors-dump-foreign-bonds-in-return-to-domestic-market

The recent news on the ever-declining current account surplus also breaks down the pro-arguments from Abenomics fanatics. Worse than that, we have ever-widening trade deficits along with the lowest self-sufficiency in food and everything else. Japan is on the path of irreversible decline, confirmed by LDP elites themselves, due to the population crisis which was caused by everything mentioned above and a few other reasons.

I can't see a decent future here.

Chinese, Vietnamese, and other Asian immigrants see Japan as the new frontier for economic exploitation. There's a future for the hardworking Asian migrants in Japan, and it's recently announced that Japan will overhaul immigration rules to allow easy paths to permanent residency.

Expect Japan will become like the UK. The foreign elites hold all core assets and real estate assets to raise up the prices of everything to an unsustainable level that the locals will be driven off their own country.

Something is logically very wrong if you have any deficit while the exports have a whatever higher or lower GROWTH. Either it is all sold at too low prices or you need more spending on energy for the production of all those things you then sell globally than they bring in. So just these two things can or should be changed. Sell it at real prices or produce and sell only or more of something that’s less cost intensive and energy consumptive.

Well, the latest news is that GDP is down to 0.1% and the people in Japan are refusing to or unwilling to consume.

My take is that the young don’t have the money and the elderly don’t need to.

Take a trip to SE Asia and witness all the big name Japanese companies are now.

Many of the manufacturing jobs have gone from Japan and they ain’t coming back!

Over regulation, no political will and a lack of real opportunity is today’s Japan.

 Of course, the "net world creditor status" can mythically erase Japan's debt problems through the current account surplus

You must have missed the part of the story that says Japan’s primary income surplus is at a record high. Japan’s position as major creditor nation is as firm as ever.

The current CC deficit is mostly due to global conditions, like the US rate hikes to battle inflation, the Chinese extended holiday and rising energy costs, not to any structural issues in Japan.

Take a trip to SE Asia and witness all the big name Japanese companies are now.

I don't even see them these days much in SEA. Korean, Chinese, American names are all over the place.

Japanese companies are doing well outside Japan though.

In Thailand go to the Chon Buri area and there are many Japanese companies lining the road out from the airport.

There are 10,000 Japanese living in Sri Racha where the Japanese companies employ them and it is not unusual to meet bilingual Thai speaking Japanese.

Meanwhile back in Japan wages are .…falling.

In Thailand go to the Chon Buri area and there are many Japanese companies lining the road out from the airport.

Thailand is rather an exception to the rule. Japan has been investing there for a century.

In recent years, Chinese businesses start crowding out the Japanese from the scene. Even Japanese tourists have largely disappeared from the wealthiest districts where all rich foreigners stay (not entirely but gradually disappear), and there was an article not long ago that detailed about this phenomenon of "Japanese tourists are not longer welcomed in Thailand". A few interesting anecdotes included the details of Japanese tourists sharing a bottle of beer and calling two food plates. Thai people welcome Chinese tourists above any Japanese.

Meanwhile back in Japan wages are .…falling.

The loss of competitiveness is also visible. Not just wages, revenues, and profit margins for Japanese businesses keep declining each year. SMEs make up more than 70% of Japan's corporate world, and they're taking the hardest hit from the ongoing recession since 2020. The big corporations have the funny BoJ's money to survive but they will eventually sell themselves to foreign investors soon.

Thailand is rather an exception to the rule. Japan has been investing there for a century.

In terms of number of ventures I might agree but Japan Inc has a major presence in Asia

From building airports in Cambodia to the construction of malls in Vietnam.

Factories in Myanmar on the border producing Burmese labor that is cheaper than Thai labor also.

Yes, the Japanese will lose to China going forward but it will still be a major struggle

In terms of number of ventures I might agree but Japan Inc has a major presence in Asia

Of course, they invested in Asia for a long time. In fact, the total net value of all ventures in Asia is all around 70 billion dollars, not new money but very old investments.

Meanwhile, China's and South Korea's investments are entirely recent in the last two decades, and their total value each is grossing more than 100 billion dollars and continue to rise.

If a war in Taiwan occurs soon, Japan can lose everything that it has gained outside of Japan.

Yes, the Japanese will lose to China going forward but it will still be a major struggle

I argued that they have already lost. Many Japanese experts have already said it for years. Japan's best move is not to make any wrong move to end up as another Ukraine.

What's missing here is the fact that country has little if any relevance anymore regarding private sector economic activity. Every successful corporation carefully avoids a country label or brand or stigma, take your pick. Because it ONLY alienates customers, employees and all other stake holders in reality.

Mr. Musk's secret sauce, attract the best brains from all corners of the world and create great brands based on great technology but that's what ALL THE WINNING COMPANIES are doing because its technology that's at the core of everything, the most valuable asset of all and obviously borderless.

Entire 'country' discussion way outdated, like you're all back in the 1950s, time to wake up and see reality, nobody cares about country, certainly not successful global corporations!

PS. That "country" based rocket failure yesterday...case in point!