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With oil prices slumping, OPEC+ producers weigh more production cuts

11 Comments
By DAVID McHUGH

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"Slumping"? Oil prices are still high enough that airlines are taking massive oil surcharges!

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Slumping ? I don't think so !!

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Seems pretty clear other than outsized Govt. spending, private sector generally terrible, especially G-7 shrinking in reality. EVs not helping demand. US rates & dollar strong due to entrenched inflation, keeping lid on oil.

China's growing, but their EV market soon majority of monthly new car sales, 35% in April, 22% for 2022, picking up speed. Finally, strong dollar, killing demand globally, especially emerging markets, given their high food inflation and weak currencies.

Where's this oil catalyst? Russia's flooding the market.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

OPEC is a cartel - why give 'em support

"Slumping"? Oil prices are still high enough that airlines are taking massive oil surcharges!

Airlines are different - they buy oil months ahead of time

"What is Fuel Hedging and Why Do Airlines Do It?"

https://simpleflying.com/what-is-fuel-hedging-and-why-do-airlines-do-it/

Fuel hedging can protect airlines from extreme changes in the cost of jet fuel.

But not every airline has been feeling the pain of the higher fuel prices quite so much as others. That's because some airlines do what is known as 'fuel hedging' - essentially buying an amount of jet fuel at a fixed price for delivery later on. This gives the airline a more predictable outlay for fuel, as it knows months ahead what its fuel costs will be for the next season.

It is a gamble, however, because as fuel prices can go up dramatically, as we've seen in recent times, they can also fall. That means some airlines could be hedged above the current price of fuel, and therefore be paying more than their competitors for the juice.

This benefits the airline by locking in a price ahead of time, thereby protecting them from future price rises. On the other side, aviation fuel market vendors like Air BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil appreciate being able to lock future sales at a set price, providing them with stable revenues.

Essentially, by entering into futures contracts, both parties decide to give up potential profits in return for certainty. What is also worth mentioning is that there is always a “winner” and a “loser” once the forward contract reaches maturity.

If the price of jet fuel at maturity is above the one agreed upon in the contract, the airline 'wins.' Thanks to the hedge, it has spent less on jet fuel than it would have done if it had purchased it on the market on that date. In the event that the jet fuel market price at expiry is lower, the supplier 'wins' as it makes more money off the jet fuel thanks to the forward.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

If oil prices are slumping, why are our bills so high? Who is conning us? Our governments to manipulate our energy use? We don't elect people to steal our cash and lie to us.

OPEC+ and BRICS have done really well out of the Western sanctions. It appears that Putin was expecting a quick expansion of territory and some pushback. He didn't get much territory, but the Western response undermined their own economies and elevated BRICS as a power bloc. Talk about unintended consequences. Huge military fail, seismic geopolitical win and lots of cash in the bank. Christmas has come early for China and India, as well as OPEC.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Huge military fail, seismic geopolitical win and lots of cash in the bank. Christmas has come early for China and India, as well as OPEC.

But not to Russia. Equipment can be replaced. Lives and reputation cannot. And China and Russia only got cheep gas, which isn't everything.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

If oil prices are slumping, why are our bills so high?

Answer: corporate profits and also the lag between the spikes in global crude prices triggered by Putin's invasion and delivery to the refiners and retailers. Brent, WTi futures are the same now as they were five years ago.

Who is conning us? Our governments to manipulate our energy use?

Not "our" governments, but Putin's government, mostly.

We don't elect people to steal our cash and lie to us.

True, we don't elect the board members of Exxon, or in our case, Japan's trading houses.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

OPEC is no friend of the consumer. They control 40% of world supplies.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

And China and Russia only got cheep gas, which isn't everything.

*China and India

0 ( +1 / -1 )

The sooner we switch to electric powered cars, the better.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

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