Here's what to expect from Tuesday's Oscar nominations


There were, admittedly, some notable distractions at last year's ceremony, so you might have missed it: The old Oscar rules have gone out the window.

A film, streamed by Apple TV+, won Hollywood’s top award without a penny of box office. But this year — plot twist! — there isn’t one streaming title in the hunt for the Academy Awards’ major prizes. When nominations are announced Tuesday, popcorn will be on the menu. “Top Gun: Maverick,”“Avatar: The Way of Water” and “Elvis” all look assured of best-picture nods.

But after a seesawing movie year where every pronouncement about the future of theatrical movies was plausible at different times — Audiences are back! No they’re not! — the film Hollywood will crown the best of 2022 may, ultimately, be neither a streaming title nor a box-office smash.

Recent nominations from the industry's top guilds have strongly suggested there are just three films with a realistic shot at best picture. The sci-fi indie “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” the Irish dark comedy “The Banshees of Inisherin” and Steven Spielberg's fictionalized memoir “The Fabelmans” were the only films nominated for the top prizes of the Screen Actors Guild, the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild. As much as some would like to see “Top Gun: Maverick” buzz the Oscar tower, striking out with the actors' guild has almost always been a death knell for best picture chances.

But it’s a long way until the 95th Academy Awards on March 12. Here’s a rundown of what we can expect when nominations are announced Tuesday morning.


The strongest support seems to be for Martin McDonagh's “The Banshees of Inisherin" and Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once." Along with nods for direction, screenwriting and best picture, both films could score as many as four acting nominations Tuesday. “Everything Everywhere All at Once" star Michelle Yeoh is the frontrunner in the formidable best actress category, while her co-star, Ke Huy Quan, the former child star, appears to be running away with best supporting actor. “Banshees” star Colin Farrell is probably the stiffest competition for Brendan Fraser ("The Whale") and Austin Butler ("Elvis") in best actor, while Brendan Gleeson, Kerry Condon and Barry Keoghan may all score supporting nods.


That was the answer no “Jeopardy!” contestant could come up with in a recent episode, a chastening moment in an otherwise much-celebrated run for Spielberg's Golden Globe-winning coming-of-age drama. “The Fabelmans” has been a frontrunner since its award-winning Toronto International Film Festival premiere, but there are some cracks in its campaign beyond unanswered gameshow clues. Michelle Williams surprisingly missed out on a SAG nomination, but expect the academy (which has nominated Williams four times before) to remedy that. More challenging is that, unlike “Everything Everywhere All at Once" or “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “The Fabelmans” ($14.4 million domestically) underperformed at the box office. Ironically, the filmmaker who helped create the modern blockbuster will have to win despite the faint whiff of theatrical disappointment. Spielberg, though, appears headed for his ninth best director nomination, and very likely, his third win in the category.


With $1.5 billion in ticket sales, “Top Gun: Maverick” helped bring moviegoers — especially older, more hesitant moviegoers — back to theaters after two-plus yeas of pandemic. Expected it to be rewarded with a best picture nod, as well as many nominations in the technical categories. Getting six IMAX cameras into the cockpit of a fighter jet, as cinematographer Claudio Miranda managed, is the kind of filmmaking feat that's hard to ignore. James Cameron's “Avatar: The Way of Water” (approaching $2 billion) will be in the mix in many of the same categories, too. And for the first time, a Marvel movie is poised to land an acting nomination: Angela Bassett, for “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever." She'll also likely win.

Some would say that the Oscars could use such box-office hits. Ratings have tended to be higher in years where widely watched films are vying for best picture. In recent years, Oscar producers have vainly tried to add prizes for “best popular film” and Twitter-voted winners, and mostly only gotten mockery for their efforts. At the same time, more modest films — “CODA,” “Nomadland,” “Parasite," “The Shape of Water,” “Moonlight” — have usually triumphed.


Ten films will be nominated for best picture, and seven of those slots feel like locks: “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “The Fabelmans," “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Tár,” “Avatar: The Way of Water” and “Elvis.” I'd expect to see Darren Aronofsky's “The Whale" and, maybe, Sarah Polley's “Women Talking,” which scored a best ensemble nod from SAG. That would leave films like “Triangle of Sadness,” “All Quiet on the Western Front” and “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” hunting for the the last spot.


With Yeoh, Blanchett, Williams, Viola Davis ("The Woman King"), Ana de Armas ("Blonde") and Danielle Deadwyler ("Till"), the best actress category is already ultra-competitive. But a late-breaking, celebrity-backed campaign has pushed Andrea Riseborough forward for her performance as an alcoholic West Texas mother in the little-seen October release, “To Leslie." Riseborough wasn't seen as in the awards mix but she did land a nomination from the Independent Spirit Awards. Instead, it's been a host of A-listers including Gwyneth Paltrow, Kate Winslet, Charlize Theron and Jennifer Aniston whose promotion of Riseborough suddenly put her on the Oscar map.


Jamie Lee Curtis ("Everything Everywhere All at Once") could land her first Oscar nomination. So could Adam Sandler ("Hustle"), who was nominated by SAG for his Netflix basketball drama. The favored international film may not be the Indian sensation “RRR” (which wasn't selected by India but is competing in other categories, including best song). The German entry “All Quiet on the Western Front,” coming off its strong showing in the BAFTA nominations and aggressively pushed by Netflix, may be the foreign film that racks up multiple nominations Tuesday.


The academy's policy that international films are submitted by the governments of their origin countries has had a chilling effect on filmmakers working inside oppressive regimes. Jafar Panahi's lauded “No Bears” will be absent only because Iran, which imprisoned Panahi earlier this year, predictably chose not to submit it. Charlotte Wells’ “Aftersun,” my pick for best film of the year, may find some well-deserved academy love for Paul Mescal but could surely contend in many categories, especially if they gave Oscars for “Best Needle Drop." I might have also voted for Tilda Swinton in “The Eternal Daughter,” Keke Palmer for “Nope,” Steven Soderbergh's “Kimi” for best film and “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” for best screenplay. Plus, how are we not throwing awards at Daniel Craig for one of the year's funniest performances in “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery"? He deserves it, if for nothing else, for the swimwear.

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Top Gun was a great film.

-3 ( +5 / -8 )

Couldn’t give a da*n. Bunch of luvvies unctuously smarming over each other. A self indulgent incestuous self congratulation fest.

2 ( +9 / -7 )

Drama series on streaming platforms are more rewarding than overblown, self-indulgant Oscar-bait movies.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

I expect a big load of garbage !!..

0 ( +3 / -3 )

“Everything Everywhere All at Once." = Enjoyed it! (It will will win something!)

“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” = Enjoyed it (It will will win something!)

"Black Panther" = Enjoyed it (It will will win something!)

"Avatar" = OK! (It will will win something!)

"Hustle" = Enjoyed it! ( I am not sure!)

"Nope" = I was torn! (I a not sure!)

"Top Gun: Maverick" = OK (LOL! Nothing at all!)

6 ( +8 / -2 )

Does any one, apart from those in the film industry, care one tiny bit about these oscar thingy's. They mean nothing at all except to say you have stood in front of a camera for a few hours.

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

Academy Awards: A bunch of oversexed drug addicts getting dressed up and giving each other trophies for playing make-believe in front of a film camera.

I'd rather just look out the window for hours watching the snow fall.

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

I'd rather just look out the window for hours watching the snow fall.

I think that’s up for best picture

3 ( +4 / -1 )

I've never particularly enjoyed the Oscars at any time of my life. Speeches bore me. But in recent years, I've loved seeing the outrage by the right from the wokeness that happens during the Oscars. It's entertaining seeing them get riled up.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

Hands down “Top Gun” should be the winner across the board. This film offered more in every category than any other 2022 film.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

Spot on Jeremiah. Pure fun. Not too long, Not too short. Non Woke.

First time in a LONG time I went to the Cinema and came out without a complaint and a smile on my face.

Universally good reviews from both wings of the press. In the Cinema for weeks.

It probably won't happen but this the one chance a movie of this genre might win AND on actual merit.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

I hope they don't let Sean Penn anywhere near the stage on that night. Or are we going to get another video message from you-know-who?

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

Or are we going to get another video message from you-know-who?

Of course we are.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

It will be a bore fest with liberal lefty propaganda. I bet the viewing figures will be the lowest ever.

No one wants to watch these millionaire hypocrites or be subjected to their woeful, wretched wokeness!

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

The Residents if you produce your own movies,and other entertainment,maybe you would not be a malcontent of others artistic creation

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

I'm looking forward to watching several of the films mentioned here, particularly The Banshees of Inisherin and The Eternal Daughter.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

We only watched about half of the Banshees of Inisherin because my Japanese spouse couldn't understand the story but worth a watch.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Pukey2 - Or are we going to get another video message from you-know-who?

I don't know who. Who?

0 ( +0 / -0 )

I'll never watch an award show but over the years, I have seen some amazing performances that deserve recognition. Not so much recently though.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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