health

Hope seen once Omicron wave increases global immunity

16 Comments
By CARLA K. JOHNSON

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That would only be valid if all infections occur within the same time frame and then for about six months from that moment on. But in reality the waves and people’s immune responses are not globally and timely synchronized so that there is only a rolling average relation of immunity and non- immunity, different at every place and time point.

-7 ( +2 / -9 )

that 57% of the world's population already has been infected with the virus at least once.

Let's do some math shall we:

World's population = 7,900,000,000 * 0.57 = 4,500,000,000 people infected

Even counting all the dead "with" Covid the highest death toll is 5.6 million.

( 5,600,000 / 4,500,000,000 ) means Covid has a 99.9% survival rate for the average human.

If you're under 60 and healthy that number is way higher and your risk level is lightning strike level.

Do the math yourself.

0 ( +6 / -6 )

Even counting all the dead "with" Covid the highest death toll is 5.6 million

Why would you not? do you think not counting all the deaths "with" malnutrition would solve that problem as well?

means Covid has a 99.9% survival rate for the average human.

But this applies under heavy life changing measures (as well as fully functioning public health services in most places and vaccination). So it is a very good argument to keep doing everything.

If you get no fatalities on a fire happening in a place with alarms, numerous fire extinguishers, fire walls, sprinklers, etc. as well as frequent fire drills you don't get to say that all those measures are unnecessary.

Of special importance is the very real risk of new variants, anti-science groups frequently try to spread disinformation trying to say scientists never consider the appearance of variants and their effect on immunity, but that was always on the table, and at this point it is still a danger. Unless enough of the world population is immune (and the safetst way to do it is with vaccines) variants will keep appearing as they have done on poorly vaccinated populations.

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

I feel very positive about the spread of this very mild variant. We can expect it to confer robust, broad, long-lasting immunity leading to an abrupt end to this pandemic. Unlike the vaccines, which do not prevent the spread and only target one protein, natural immunity is much less likely to lead to new variants.

2 ( +6 / -4 )

@Bronco Doing some math is always nice. But setting into relation the real number of deaths with a fictional number of 57% global population already infected, that is not exactly what math is meant to be and should be used for. Of course you can only set into relation the real outcomes, means real number of corona dead divided by proven number of infected people, which is currently about 1.93% and still slightly decreasing from formerly quite over 2.2% so also here an omicron effect so to say.

-6 ( +0 / -6 )

We can expect it to confer robust, broad, long-lasting immunity leading to an abrupt end to this pandemic. 

The evidence is actually the opposite, mild infections (more common with Omicron) give less robust immunity that last for much shorter times, and as observed with the lack of cross neutralization of immunity against other variants against Omicron the opposite can also be expected (immunity against omicron being non cross neutralizing against other variants, previous and future) so giving only very weak immunity for any other variants different to it.

In comparison the vaccines offer a much more reliable and strong response, with a single booster giving much higher increase on the neutralizing antibodies levels than the infection with Omicron can.

-6 ( +2 / -8 )

With BOTH a high innoculation rate plus immunity through having already been infected will great reduce the spread barring any new crippling variant.

This is a bit of a silver lining to the this new variant. I hope Fauci's right on this one.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

With heavily vaccinated Israel rolling out their 2nd "booster" shot now having one of the highest, if not the highest, per capita infection rate, I am surprised some still believe vaccination is the best approach.

But we are observing Omicron very effectively wiping out Delta...

2 ( +4 / -2 )

With heavily vaccinated Israel rolling out their 2nd "booster" shot now having one of the highest, if not the highest, per capita infection rate, I am surprised some still believe vaccination is the best approach.

that does nothing to disprove that

1.- vaccines are much less risky than getting omicron

2.- the elevation of antibodies against other variants is much higher with a booster than after being infected with omicron.

This means that vaccines give better protection for less risk, at this point there is nothing can replace the value of vaccination (and this includes the example of Israel as evidenced by the rates of hospitalization and specially deaths compared with before vaccination).

But we are observing Omicron very effectively wiping out Delta.

You are confusing between a variant being much more infectious and it protecting against delta. Cases of omicron are not automatically cases that were prevented from delta, specially since previous immunity (including from infection) can prevent delta but not omicron.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

the elevation of antibodies against other variants is much higher with a booster than after being infected with omicron.

This means that vaccines give better protection

No, the vaccines failed miserably at preventing infections, they mainly just reduce symptoms (for a few months). But as omicron cases increase, Delta vanishes because infection with Omicron provides robust and broad immunity, not just reduction of symptoms. It provides antibodies including IgAs (vaccines don't) against several target proteins, not just the spike.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

As far as doing the math, about one in every 400 residents of the US has so far died from Covid-19. Since the vaccines came out and have been widely available, the vast majority of those who have died have been the willfully unvaccinated. The odds of dying after being fully vaccinated are astronomically small. On the block where I live four people have died of covid, all of them before the vaccines became available.

I grew up being repeatedly told first-hand accounts of the pandemic of 1918-1920. That scourge started in January 1918, and pretty much ended in its third year, 1920. If the current pandemic is similar, we can look forward to it ending in its third year, which would be this year. One can hope. In the meantime, I am very grateful for the vaccines. People of my age group do not do well against covid.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Omicron is slowing down, time for the next new "variant" to be hyped

0 ( +2 / -2 )

No, the vaccines failed miserably at preventing infections,

At less than a month after vaccination? provide the data because this is not the case. Again, Omicron cases are not "taken" from people that would have had delta instead but include people that would have had no infection at all because of their precautions. Your argument is baseless, Delta peak was already over and the number of cases decreasing very importantly in most places.

It provides antibodies including IgAs  It provides antibodies including IgAs (vaccines don't) against several target proteins, not just the spike.

This have no importance since no specific role have been demonstrated of them for COVID, so blindly assuming they are better is not valid, for all experts know this could be even worse and facilitate more serious or long-lasting disease as demonstrated with the recent finding on long COVID that is correlated with differences in the levels of specific IgGs. The same applies to antibodies against other proteins, this can actually increase the risk of complications.

Vaccines produce much better protection at the cost of much lower risks, you personally thinking the opposite is not an argument, it is just your personal belief.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Infections confer IgA antibodies, these are the ones that line the mucous and prevent infection. That is why where ever Omicron appears, Delta rapidly vanishes. THAT is a perfect example of herd immunity and that iis why many experts are hopeful that Omicron will signal the end of this pandemic. The vaccines do not confer IgA antibodies, they only result in IgGs that circulate in the blood and only bind to the toxic spike protein, thus reducing symptoms, but have little effect on preventing infection.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Infections confer IgA antibodies, these are the ones that line the mucous and prevent infection. That is why where ever Omicron appears, Delta rapidly vanishes

Again, just repeating what you believe is not evidence, present the scientific data that proves this is the case or it is just baseless speculation.

THAT is a perfect example of herd immunity and that iis why many experts are hopeful that Omicron will signal the end of this pandemic

No, that is not a perfect example, in the least, because it still requires people to assume the risks of infection without evidence the immunity obtained is long lasting or even applicable to other variants, in fact the opposite (inneffective cross neutralization) is what is being reported.

The vaccines do not confer IgA antibodies, they only result in IgGs that circulate in the blood and only bind to the toxic spike protein, thus reducing symptoms, but have little effect on preventing infection.

Every other vaccine that is injected does the same, and this iin no way prove they are ineffective nor that they are insufficient to achieve long lasting protection from the disease, which is the actual purpose of vaccines. Why do you think there is no current vaccines delivered on respiratory airways? the answer is simple, your belief that igA is better is just another assumption you make without basis on actual scientific data. IgG and other factors that are better stimulated by injected vaccines can cause much more broad and long immunity which make them better vaccines. As mentioned, data indicates lack of proper IgG has been correlated with serious and long lasting disease on COVID.

Not to mention, vaccines have much lower risks than being infected with Omicron, that alone is enough to make them the better option to get immunity, which is the scientific consensus.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

@Bronco

Don't forget that mathematics is also not a correct science as 1 + 1 does not always = 2.

And science is not an exact science .

It would be more interesting hypothesis if accurate numbers were used in your guesstimate .

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

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