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How deadly is new coronavirus? It's still too early to tell

9 Comments
By LAURAN NEERGAARD

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Flu is a different virus family, and some strains are deadlier than others. On average, the death rate from seasonal flu is about 0.1%, said Dr. Anthony Fauci of the U.S. National Institutes of Health.

> That's far lower than what has been calculated so far for COVID-19. But millions of people get the flu every year around the world, leading to an annual death toll in the hundreds of thousands.

CDC specialists on youtube are saying that it APPEARS to have a mortality rate of around 2%, which IS a cause for alarm as they have also said that the undetected cases are most likely WAY HIGHER than has been detected as some people have it and don't show symptoms AT ALL.

If they are right and the death rate is at 2%, AND if this becomes like the seasonal flu and becomes a seasonal thing that never really goes away, it has the potential to get really bad.

-5 ( +1 / -6 )

if this becomes like the seasonal flu and becomes a seasonal thing that never really goes away

The seasonal flu is not one virus that doesn’t go away, it’s new viruses every year.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

@Strangerland: Correct, rhinoviruses (common colds) and other coronaviruses (flus) are instable and tend to mutate happily. If COVID is stable as it seems to be it might go away like SARS did. If it doesn't I hope we'll be able to get vaccines in time like the ones actually working for influenza.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

The seasonal flu is not one virus that doesn’t go away, it’s new viruses every year.

I'm aware of that. I was talking about whether or not it would recur every year or whether it would peter out completely as sars. Sars doesn't consistently recur every year and spread all over the world but the flu does. My comment was directed as to whether this strain will behave like the regular flu or like sars

0 ( +1 / -1 )

The thing is that at this point nobody really knows how deadly is, as this depends on detecting all cases and the health services where outbreaks happen. If half of the cases are so mild that don't require a visit to the doctor the death rate would be half of what is reported, but on the other hand is not the same to have 10 patients that require a visit to the ICU and having 1000 patients in that condition. Even if you could save every patient with proper care that would still mean losing a lot of lives, including people that are indirectly affected, not infected but that needed the attention that was used for infected patients.

Best strategy of course is to stop outbreaks completely, but with an infectious disease so easily transmitted a more realistic approach is to slow the transmission so the patients don't overrun the health services and hopefully even get a vaccine.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

People who cough for 3 weeks, pls save yrselves and go to important check-ups.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

If the current seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 0.1%, and if the Covid-19 flu has a mortality rate of 2%, then the latter flu is 20 times more deadly than the more common flu. Another way to look at it is to see that the current death toll in the US of 13,000 from the seasonal flu would be twenty times worse, at 260,000 deaths, if we were talking about the Covid virus.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Actually, in the 2017-2018 flu season in the US it is estimated that 61,000 people died. The general US trend according to the CDC:

"CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010."

In the 1957-58 pandemic 70,000 died in the US. The important point is to always get vaccinated. In the US there has been an anti-vaccine movement for a few years here.

It looks like a vaccine is in the pipeline for COVID-19, and should arrive this Summer. Clinical evaluations, etc, are necessary. Let's cross our fingers that it arrives.

Please, always wash your hands after going out in the world, and don't touch your face before doing so.

Bill

2 ( +2 / -0 )

APPARENTLY : IT PASS THROUGH DOGS

°

France announced a dog case in China. The dog is well, but the virus pass on to dogs. This is terrible news.

And we don't know the death toll on fragile people.

2% is a global scale, but if your fragile que could be on 10% risk.

News are not enough on this.

°

NadAge

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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