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A Chinese invasion of Taiwan: Too costly to countenance?

14 Comments
By Sean Chang, Rebecca Bailey and Ludovic Ehret

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Some war game scenarios see the PLA taking out U.S. bases in the Pacific to kneecap its ability to respond. Washington would be heavily reliant on aircraft carriers operating far from home.

China's leaders seems too pragmatic to try a Pearl Harbor 2.0.

And if their goal was just Taiwan the war in Ukraine has shown direct American intervention is unlikely.

The fear-mongering is great for the LDP and neo-cons though.

-1 ( +5 / -6 )

Those highly visible 'defensive' weapons are more to generate fear in the home bodies than in anyone else...

"The fear-mongering is great for the LDP and neo-cons though."

AMEN! Bro...

And they are the only ones talking about it and pushing it as "something THEY would do". China has a much longer perspective than the West whose 'bottom lines' shrink and grow with the quality of their LIES and claiming China as a highly aggressive INVADER of other places is simply absurd to anyone paying attention to this world and stirs up the fears of the mindless and makes them as wet clay to the Corporate propagandists. China has NOTHING to gain by invading Formosa (aka: 'Taiwan') or other islands, but the Western liars have MUCH to gain by generating fears that justify enormous weapons budgets at the expense of the welfare of the people. WHO, exactly, holds MILITARY SWAY over much of the World and INVADES disobedient sovereign Nations as a routine foreign policy, and WHO threatens and imposes crippling economic warfare that starves the people upon disobedient sovereign Nations? Hint: It isn't China...

-1 ( +5 / -6 )

The vast majority of mainland Chinese and Taiwanese support the status quo as it allows people on both sides of the straits to live together peacefully and do business. They are siblings and intertwined. A golden period was reached with President Ma. But then USA had to stir up trouble. One way to make money is to ramp up the threat of war and spend spend spend on weapons. Also, USA sees China as a threat to its world hegemony. USA can easily work side by side with China and other countries, but its selfishness prevents this, and it has to kill everything that provides economic competiton, by threats of war, actual wars, coups, destabilization through color revolutions and fake NGOs, subjugation and invasion of US corporations to strip other countries of their resources.

-1 ( +5 / -6 )

It does not make sense for Xi to attack Taiwan, but it didn't make sense for Putin to attack Ukraine, either.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

It does not make sense for Xi to attack Taiwan, but it didn't make sense for Putin to attack Ukraine, either.

Mainland Chinese living in Taiwan are not at a threat of being killed by Taiwanese soldiers, whereas ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine were under constant fire since 2014 by military of a certain ideology.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

I remember when Taiwan was a poor country, its people living under a dictatorship, albeit one not as vile as the one across the waters. Now it is a wealthy country—and, more importantly, democratic and free. That is why the tyrants hate it so much.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

And if their goal was just Taiwan the war in Ukraine has shown direct American intervention is unlikely.

Taiwan is not Ukraine and the US has been clear that if China tries to invade Taiwan the US will respond with force. Both parties strongly support this and any US President who did not defend Taiwan forcefully would probably find themselves impeached in a matter of days.

Congress is currently debating a bill to grant any future US President the authority to use force to defend Taiwan without consulting Congress further. The bill has wide bipartisan support.

Some war game scenarios see the PLA taking out U.S. bases in the Pacific to kneecap its ability to respond. Washington would be heavily reliant on aircraft carriers operating far from home.

Guam is well defended and there are plans to greatly improve its BMD defenses. A mobile SM-3 launcher is being developed. Aegis has been run on a ruggedized laptop in exercises and SM-3 can use the AN/TPY-2 radar used by THAAD or the radars used by Patriot. In any event no carriers are based in Guam nor are any carrier air wings so the several carrier strike groups that would defend Taiwan will come from Japan and elsewhere.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Taiwan is not Ukraine and the US has been clear that if China tries to invade Taiwan the US will respond with force. 

Maybe a US leader should dare to recognize Taiwan as a state first before they would commit to sacrifice American lives to defend it from invasion.

Not likely in any case

3 ( +4 / -1 )

China has been taking the hardline on Taiwan recently and trying to take control of it because of The US. The US keep meddling in the affairs in Asia and provoking countries to make China their enemy! They keep insulting China and provoke them. The US tells other countries to take harsh steps towards trading with China ( Australia is an example ), all the while they themselves secretly increasing their import / exports with China ( thus increasing their trade ). The US puppets fail to see this and are just fools to follow America blindly. The US will never help other countries if it doesn’t serve them ( no benefit - no action ). Just look at what the US has done in Iraq, Afghanistan and most of the Middle East! They broke the lives of millions and left them without any assistance! The US only provides Japan with the so called security because of the billions of dollars that Japan gives to the US military every year!

-5 ( +0 / -5 )

Jim,

What are you talking about, buddy? The US didn’t tell Australia to take “harsh steps towards trading with China”, China unilaterally took harsh steps (i.e. sanctions) towards trading with Australia because it didn’t like some of the things Australia was saying about Chinese domestic and foreign policy, and those sanctions are still in place. You can’t blame the US for everything.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

Maybe a US leader should dare to recognize Taiwan as a state first before they would commit to sacrifice American lives to defend it from invasion.

Silly comment. The US position has been to maintain the current status quo. Taiwan does not declare independence and the US will defend it if China tries to change the status quo unilaterally through military action. The US is certainly not going to suddenly start calling Taiwan an independent country as that simply causes the very war the US and its allies seek to prevent. In the fullness of time many of us expect the government on Taiwan to outlive the CCP.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Silly comment. The US position has been to maintain the current status quo

Former Sec.of State Mike Pompeo doesn't seem to think it is so silly.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-should-recognise-taiwan-former-top-diplomat-pompeo-says-2022-03-04/

0 ( +0 / -0 )

The USA will help defend Taiwan but the USA it doesn't want war with China.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

The Ukraine war has shown how closely interconnected countries the world over are with each other. So, if there ever were any conflict in the Taiwan Strait, an important sea lane for Taiwan, China, South Korea and Japan, economic loss for not only these countries but also the whole world would be incalculable and immeasurable.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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