Donald Trump’s choice of Ohio senator JD Vance as his running mate in the presidential election has reignited European fears of American abandonment. Vance is known for his opposition to aid for Ukraine and his almost singular focus on China as the defining security challenge for the United States.
If Trump wins in November, Vance as his vice president would further the reorientation of U.S. foreign and security policy away from the Euro-Atlantic area towards the Indo-Pacific. And given Vance’s likely aspirations for the presidency in a post-Trump era, this will have significant implications beyond another Trump presidency.
By choosing Vance, Trump plans to lock in his brand of American populism. It’s a choice that signals the former president’s now complete control over the Republican party and its future direction. More than anything else, Vance’s appointment as running mate signals the end of the post-1945 internationalist U.S. foreign policy consensus.
European leaders are thus rightly worried about the continuing U.S. commitment to European security. At the Munich security conference in February, Vance reportedly told his European interlocutors that he is “much more interested in some of the problems in east Asia right now than I am in Europe”.
For Vance, the choice is a zero-sum game: arms for Ukraine would be better sent to Taiwan. In April 2024, he wrote a scathing op-ed in the New York Times arguing that rather than providing more military aid to Ukraine, Washington should convince Kyiv to give up on the goal of restoring its full sovereignty within its internationally recognized borders of 1991 and start negotiating with Russia.
This is a position shared by Trump and appreciated by Russian president Vladimir Putin. Unsurprisingly, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, immediately welcomed Trump’s pick of Vance as his running mate.
If America decided to end its support for Ukraine, there is little prospect that the European allies could plug this gap. Without American military technology and the intelligence and communications network that only the U.S. can provide, Ukraine would be unable to resist the relentless Russian onslaught.
Despite European concerns over a likely shift in U.S. support away from Ukraine in the event of a Trump win in November, Germany is planning to halve its military aid for Kyiv next year from the €8 billion provided in 2024.
In a purely material sense, this is offset by an agreement reached among the G7 nations at their summit in Italy in June, 2024, to use $3 billion annually accruing in interest from frozen Russia assets as leverage to support a $50 billion loan to Ukraine.
But in a more symbolic sense, the German proposal to cut bilateral aid to Ukraine sends the politically much more damaging message that Kyiv’s key European allies are unlikely to step into any gap left by the U.S.
Little wonder, then, that even Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, appears to understand the writing on the wall. He has now indicated that the time for negotiations with Russia may be nearing.
Europe exposed
The Russian aggression against Ukraine clearly poses the most significant and immediate threat to European security. But even if the war ends through a negotiated settlement, this would do little to enhance European security in the longer term.
Putin’s Russia has proven to be an untrustworthy negotiation partner before, as the collapse of the 2014 and 2015 Minsk ceasefire agreements clearly demonstrates. There was a path to peace and stability and Russia chose not to take it. There is no evidence that any new agreement struck with Putin would fare any better.
What’s more, any agreement with Russia to end the war in Ukraine is likely to accelerate the feared U.S. abandonment of Europe. With the war against Ukraine brought to a – probably temporary – close, a Trump-led administration in Washington would feel further emboldened to complete its security pivot towards the Indo-Pacific and focus solely on China.
Ascendant Trump-aligned forces in Europe on both the extreme right and extreme left of the political spectrum would likely also see this as an opportunity to advocate for an appeasement of Russia and a lowering of defense budgets. In a White House with a China-focused view of the world, winning over Russia to the American side is a long-term strategic goal.
Yet, this would be a serious folly, endangering European security in the long term. It would not only put trust into an untrustworthy Russian leadership. It would also neglect China’s importance when it comes to European security.
A complete U.S. pivot to the Indo-Pacific is not in China’s interest. So it would be logical to use Russia as a proxy to stir up trouble in the Euro-Atlantic theatre. Apart from anything else, this would undermine the prospects of any European assistance to the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific.
It also underestimates how much Russia and China are a common security problem that the U.S. and Europe share. Efforts by Moscow and Beijing to form a military, political and economic counterweight to the U.S. and Europe may still be in their infancy, but they are becoming more concerted. This much was evident at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, of which Russia and China are leading members, in early July.
So the problem for European security is not primarily that Trump and Vance want to focus away from Russia towards China. It’s what this does to the future of the transatlantic security community that has its roots in the 1941 Atlantic charter and was one of the key pillars of international security, prefiguring the foundation of Nato in 1949.
Weakening this transatlantic link will inevitably strengthen an emerging Sino-Russian Eurasian alliance. Thus, a US retreat from its traditional role as the guarantor of European security will pose many challenges for Europe. This includes how much it is prepared to spend on its own defense and how it organizes the strategic response to these new realities.
Stefan Wolff is Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham and David Hastings Dunn is Professor of International Politics in the Department of Political Science and International Studies, University of Birmingham.
The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts.
© The Conversation
48 Comments
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TaiwanIsNotChina
But since you claim the US is in a crisis we must currently suspend all aid to Israel. Just give us a yes or no.
bass4funk
Wrong, I don't think so, I think we should, But having said that, and as much as love and admire Israel, the US should come first and foremost.
TaiwanIsNotChina
So you agree that not one penny should go to Israel, right?
bass4funk
What?
With the state and condition that the US is in and the financial-economic status, we need to use as much of our own resources as we can, which means pulling a considerable amount of aid that goes towards any war effort to a foreign nation. Again, I love my neighbor's kids, but I love my kids more, they come first, always.
The facts are in the words as well as history backing it up.
You go woke and you go broke and as long as the military is woke and remains woke, fewer will join, which definitely makes our adversaries ecstatic. But seriously, I'm looking forward to when Trump and his admin start making these new changes.
https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2023/military-recruitment-down-shortage-2023-why/
TaiwanIsNotChina
He probably said f it and went to go play golf. This time he is gunning for tearing down the government.
Big countries have to do more than one thing at a time. They don't have the luxury of myopic isolationism.
I see a lot of bold words but precious little hard facts. What great inventions have we gotten out of the 7 million people again? Would there be 1/100th the terrorism or middle east instability if Israel wasn't there?
I guarantee you that being forced to defend our treaty allies (and Bass will be forced) will be far more costly than allowing transgenders in the military.
bass4funk
And to his credit, he listened. Exactly, you made my point for me.
We do, but the first priority of ANY nation is to ensure and maintain the safety and well-being of your own nation first on every level before aiding others.
Since the creation of the Jewish state in 1948 maintaining a strong relationship with Israel is essential due to its strategic role in Middle Eastern stability, intelligence sharing, and counterterrorism efforts. Israel's technological advancements benefit U.S. industries, and supporting it aligns with promoting democratic values in a volatile region. Ensuring Israel's security enhances global stability and upholds shared democratic human rights principles, particularly when dealing with the global daily threat of radical Islamic extremism.
Trump hasn't destroyed the US military yet,
https://www.newsweek.com/us-military-went-woke-time-make-some-changes-top-opinion-1849290
By ending wokeness and the gender issue, yes.
TaiwanIsNotChina
The second part of the sentence are all concrete things that are self-evident. I'm not going to do the research for you.
Isn't that convenient that since Russia is the one trying to make demands, the bleaters can claim to be on the side of peace for now? No one is fooled.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Only because the patriotic bureaucrats told him he couldn't.
Which will never happen so basically this is a claim that we don't need any allies which is patently false.
Ukraine is our most useful ally in the world since 2014 and we have to do everything we can to help it.
Trump hasn't destroyed the US military yet, but I'm sure he's working on it.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Nothing is ironclad with "there will be no invasion" Putin. You are proposing handing over land for nothing.
bass4funk
The US is already divided and has been since 2009
Hogwash, Trump was ALREADY President for 4 years and nothing was damaged, all of our institutions were left intact and he didn't go around jailing his political opponents when he easily could have, so that won't change in the future as well. No new wars during the 4 years he was in office and there is no indication whatsoever that he is itching to push the US into another military conflict.
No, he wants to focus on America first which he should, once America's problems have been resolved, then we can help others.
As he should, Israel is our closest ally in the region since its creation and we have to do everything we can to help it
We are already there
zibala
A Trump-Vance White House could undermine European security – and end up pushing Russia and China closer
China and Russia are close only because Biden has been incapacitated for two years.
tigerjane
Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee, working together, just frightening not only for the United States at this moment the land of the free but if they get in you can say goodbye to those words.
Harris, I don't think even with all the money she is pulling will have a difficult time pulling off the election, because as VP she did not much unlike Hillary Clinton who traveled and did make a name for herself, and she wasn't even VP.
I think who could beat these 2 HANDS down is Scott Kelly, and I hope he will step up like he did when he went to the moon and save the United States and run for President. He has the smarts, the discipline and the name recognition to pull it off.
Anonymous
Is there anyone who thinks Ukraine can beat Russia even if Europe and the U.S. arm Kyiv to the teeth? Trump knows they can’t hence will attempt to negotiate a settlement involving ceding Donbas and Crimea to Russia in exchange for iron clad treaties guaranteeing Ukraine’s security.
Foreign policy expert Biden has done nothing and Harris who has no real experience in negotiating anything will do less than nothing.
ClippetyClop
Hehe! Vatniks love a bit of proxying. That and Putin was 'provoked', or 'lured' into Special Military Operating into Ukraine by master criminal Joe Biden.
"It's not our fault!", they cry.
Their feeble minds can't cope with supporting Vlad's brutal invasion. They need a complex coping mechanism and 'Merica fits the bill once again.
Seems they forgot that it was supposed to be about Nazis once upon a time.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Russia has zero chance to take Kyiv. Zero chance.
Still Putin's War. Everyone outside of Russia can admit this.
Surrender is not a recipe for peace.
Eastmann
UA have zero chance to win over Russia.
even with all of antirussian sanctions,propaganda in media,flow of cash and guns from west.
zero chance.
this proxy conflict was provoked and organized by USA and its servants and have no military solution.one and only solution is direct peace negotiation with Russia once really ready for talk.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Russia's not a pole and never will be. Too poor as a gas station with no friends.
And the Switzerland peace conference.
Bojo is a UK prime minister. Ukraine speaks for itself. Minsk agreements are the agreements burned and thrown out the window by Putin.
You still have to make sure Trump is happy to grab his ankles from the White House press briefing room.
Let's hope that surrender to fascists will not prevail.
TaiwanIsNotChina
But not started. Russia is allegedly not an animal that can be provoked by flashing colors.
Easy to prove that the much bemoaned Istanbul meeting took place with Ukraine in a worse position than it is now and a request to please retreat is not request for ceasefire.
Neither have the bleaters for Russia who is always in need of more cannonfodder.
Daniel Neagari
If Trump wins... there will be war (may be WW3?) no matter what Don the Con do or does not.
Reasons for this?
1) Trump and the ROC has driven the US to be divided and strong feelings. Even after the election (no matter who wins) there will be a lot of frustrated United Statians in both sides (plenty of bad hombre too).
2) If Trump wins he will try to "demostrate how manly he is"... so he probably will go pick a fight. May be to NK? He certainly want to go against China. But China is too risky politically and economically to do so... problably Taiwan will not be.
3) Trump would like to kiss Putin's ass... so he will try at least to diminish the presence of NATO in Ukraine somehow.
4) Trump will what to kiss Isarel ass as well as UAE oily ass... so he will probably support the "rightsouss actions" of Israel in Gaza... so more attacks on evacuation roads, refugees, schools and hospitals.
5) Trump will keep cultivating that separation within the US... that may end up in some sort of internal conflict. If that happens then... the US will be busy for their inside war... and so China, Rusia and their buddies will make war.
... then again I may be wrong (I hope so)
Eastmann
Ramsey's Kitchen
yes you are right.
world is not equal USA+western Europe,Australia+NZ
we live in multipolar world and every normal person wants a peace.
there were some attempts about peace negotiations from side of Israel,Turkey,than China,India,Brasil...
for every serious talk you need around table both sides and yes during Bidens administration this was not possible.there were no conditions for serious peace negotiations yet.remember BoJo or Minsk agreements ?
lets see how it will end in November than we may predict what may follow next.
lets hope that PEACE will prevail.
TaiwanIsNotChina
You are going to be the next Russia Prevails guy.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Tanks were rolling only one way on Feb. 24th, 2022. Posters just think if they just repeat the message they can change history, but that doesn't work outside of garbage authoritarian states.
Eastmann
check who is talking...and who is afraid...or want to make us afraid...
peace loving people are NOT afraid.
UA conflict will be solved around negotiation table as soon as Trump will be new POTUS.
no more Kiev junta support with money,guns and everything.
money from USA will get dry-conflict will end at the same moment.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Peace has not been offered to Ukraine and 99% of posters bleating about it never once raised a voice against the dictator responsible for the war.
deanzaZZR
I didn't know decades long civil wars with hundreds of thousands of casualties could be stopped with a simple "time out"
GuruMick
Zibala above "historically, the facts show "...comics had more material when Trump was President.
isabelle
No, you should look at the evidence and decide for yourself. If you disagree, fine, but it's very clear to me.
Kremlin propaganda. But you knew that already.
lincolnman
Bring Russia and China close?
Putin has already done that when he gave up Russian sovereignty and turned his country into a vassal state of the Great Sinosphere...
Xi knows it and is already exploiting it...
As for Trump. "love letters" may flatter KJU but Xi is too cunning for that...Trump would get played for a fool and sucker...just like we saw from 2016-20...
wallace
The Chinese Civil War was from 1927 to 1949.
deanzaZZR
Bring peace to Ukraine and Russia. Bring peace to East Asia with the resolution of the Chinese Civil War. The world economy will bring prosperity to billions around the world.
Hervé L'Eisa
And it could have the effect of peace worldwide.
isabelle
You must talking about those that support Putin, since he is the one that started this war.
Christopher
If Trump wins in November, Vance as his vice president would further the reorientation of U.S. foreign and security policy away from the Euro-Atlantic area towards the Indo-Pacific.
Very Good. Bolster up where the recourses are sparce.
Let the UK and the very rich Germany as France foot the bill and worry about Russia.
Strengthen South Korea and Japan. This region.
Develop more bases in the Philippians. Assist the Philippians to amend their constitution allowing for SOFA status. If the people and government it want it.
If Germany leaned hard enough on Russia. France as well. With the U.K.
You could end the war in Ukraine.
isabelle
One of the (many) issues here is that, apart from abandoning Europe to Russian aggression (which, despite Trump/Vance's views is clearly not in American interests), their focus on Asia is unlikely to work either, as Trump:
1) does not understand the issues, 2) won't listen to those in the administration/region that do, 3) just wants to screw everyone for as much money as he can get.
We've already seen his demands for Japan, and especially South Korea, to over-pay for defense, and his recent call for Taiwan to pay the US too (despite there being no alliance, meaning that Taiwan would not do so). His "deal making" may make the US a little more money in the short term, but it would weaken/destroy the alliances in the long term, reduce the US' power, and possibly increase China's power.
Overall, yes China is the "defining security challenge," but not even attempting to understand the issues, alienating those in the region that do, and being repeatedly suckered by authoritarian leaders (Phase I trade deal with China, anyone?) is not the way to meet this challenge. In contrast, Biden has done this correctly: work with allies, implement targeted economic actions, strengthen the US' position through things like the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS, and wait for Xi to destroy China himself (he's doing a far better job than the US ever could).
In short, Trump is too stupid and pig-headed to "win" in Asia, or anywhere else.
mrtinjp
This article is as fake as it gets, obama and biden administration is what drove russia and china close.If trump fixes the original ukraine issue, only than this alliance will break..
zibala
A Trump-Vance White House could undermine European security – and end up pushing Russia and China closer
Well, no. It was an Obama-Biden White House where Russia annexed Crimea. It was a Biden-Harris White House where Russia invaded Ukraine.
So, historically, the facts show Europe was more secure during the Trump administration.
wallace
A Trump win is a danger for Europe.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Orange man wants to end US weapons for Ukraine, not halve it.
It sounds like you've found a conspiracy!
TaiwanIsNotChina
Authors are right about that. Fortunately there will be no squirming away from the consequences for the MAGA. If Trump wins they will own NATO and Taiwan security.
Cheradenine Zakalwe
Putin's strategist pointed toward this geo-political strategy.
https://strategiecs.com/en/analyses/alexander-dugin-and-the-eurasian-system-philosophy-and-strategy
Banthu
So Germany is doing the same thing as Trump but Orange man bad.
Two world leaders have been shot at in the last few months, Robert Fico in Slovakia and Donald Trump in the US.
Both of them are against the continuation of the war in Ukraine.