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Annexation of Crimea: East Asian implications

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As a European immigrant to Asia since 1989, the year in which the Berlin Wall fell, and in my capacity as an energy analyst, I view the annexation of the Crimean peninsula by the Russian Federation self-defense forces as possibly also having serious implications for regional stability, and energy security in North East Asia as well as in Europe.

Northeast Asia boasts two of the three largest economies in the world, China and Japan, with a combined GDP in excess of $12 trillion. China has a 4,100 km land border with Russia, and Russia is Japan’s closest neighbor.

Japan has not yet signed a peace treaty with Russia in the aftermath of World War II, the only OECD country not to do so. This is due to a dispute over the Northern Islands that separate Japan’s northern Hokkaido Island from Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula at the entrance to the Sea of Okhotsk where Russia’s pacific fleet is based.

This ongoing dispute between Russia and Japan over the Northern Islands arising from an agreement signed by Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin on Russia’s engagement with the Allies in 1945 in the lead up to the end of WWII. Ironically that agreement was consummated in Yalta on the Crimean Peninsula in February 1945, which is 85km east of Sevastopol, where Russia’s Black Sea fleet is now based, and the main motivation for the Russian occupation of the Crimean peninsula this month. This creates a physical and historical link between the Crimea and the island dispute between Japan and Russia in the northwestern Pacific Ocean.

The annexation of the Crimean Peninsula by troops loyal to the Russian Federation may legally violate Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and is the first such violation of a European country’s territorial integrity since the end of the Second World War. Hence, these events have deep and resounding significance in Europe particularly in countries that were former members of the Soviet Union but are now members of the European Union, including Poland and the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Speculation that China may now support Russian’s position on Crimea may cause great concern among her close neighbors in Asia in terms of the precedent it may set for territorial disputes in East Asia. The Crimean annexation may also establish a dangerous precedent that territorial possession is nine tenths of the law.

China and Japan have an ongoing territorial dispute over the Senkaku islands in the East China Sea. Japan and South Korea have an ongoing dispute over the Takeshima islands in the Sea of Japan that South Korea now occupies. To the south of Japan, China claims that Taiwan is a Chinese province, and has maritime territorial disputes with her close neighbors in the South China Sea particularly the Philippines and Vietnam.

Unlike Western Europe, the Cold War has still not been put to rest in Asia. There is a deeply despotic regime in place in North Korea only 1,000 km west of Japan’s main island Honshu; China is still a one-party state ruled by a communist party, albeit now boasting a market economy second only in size to that of the United States, and a communist regime is still in place in Vietnam to China’s south.

About 10% of Japan’s natural gas now comes from Russia and 5% of its crude oil. Japan has multiple billions of dollars of energy investments across the Russian Federation, and international trade between the two countries was $32 billion in 2012, 50% of which is oil and gas imports from Russia to Japan.

Hence, Japan and other Asian countries have large energy dependencies on the Russian Federation that have increased significantly over the last decade, and in the case of Japan especially since the Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011. These investments and dependencies are mainly denominated in the US currency, which may cause trade issues if the U.S. imposes banking sanctions on Russia.

Diplomatic and political reactions to the events in the Crimea by China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan deserve to be closely monitored for indications of how their own territorial disputes on their own borders in East Asia will ultimately be resolved.

© Japan Today

©2024 GPlusMedia Inc.

6 Comments
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While we are in a remembering mood, don't forget that the Crimea was added to the Ukraine by Khruschev at a time when he had iron control over both states, hardly a "old sod" part of the country. That the Russians want it back now that they are successful market economy and Ukraine is a bankrupt welfare state is hardly surprising. The kiev bottle throwers now in charge, would be in control of an army, except that the Ukraine disbanded most of their army in return for empty promises from the Euros who have more empty promises on their lips today.

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countries that were former members of the Soviet Union but are now members of the European Union, including Poland

Poland was not part of the Soviet Union. Not sure what a 'member' of the Soviet Union would have been.

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and the point of this article is?

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Poland was not part of the Soviet Union.

Well, behind the iron curtain at least (which for all intents and purposes, might as well be part of the Soviet Union).

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This issue is different, they will certainly return the islands back since there is almost no people living on it after an earthquake.

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Japan's dependence on imported petroleum products is another reason why it should invest in developing alternative energy sources, such as geothermal, wind, and tidal.

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