Are there any crumbs of comfort for Mr Aso?

"Those guys are all the same - there isn't a bit of difference between them." It's not every Saturday morning in a generally non-political household that you get this kind of angry statement before breakfast.

Yet the next few weeks really could see the build-up to what the political scientists love to term a critical or transformational election. It is possible that a tsunami is about to wash away postwar Japan's basic political framework.

For once, the future may well be less of the same rather than the usual story of confirming that the old gang is back on the job. After the Aug 30 general election, the nation may wake up to a very different scenario. Instead of the familiar photos of yet another group of mainly male conservative politicians in ill-fitting morning suits posing for their swearing-in moment, it could all become pretty chaotic. Instead of a Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition government with a substantial majority in the lower house of the Diet, Japan faces numerous possible outcomes that suggest a prolonged period of political instability.

Given that the Liberal Democratic Party's coalition cabinet is obviously in deep trouble, it remains highly probable that the conservatives are fated to lose seats galore. Public opinion polls and recent local election results plus numerous anecdotal remarks confirm that Prime Minister Taro Aso is going to be burned at the stake.

Aso's personal ratings are low and since the very latest economic news tells both of miserable unemployment levels and a nasty increase in deflation it is hard to see the latest LDP chieftain doing much beyond leading his party to a rare defeat.

While it does indeed look like curtains for the prime minister, it is entirely possible that Yukio Hatoyama's Democratic Party of Japan may yet fail to cover itself in glory. The first and most obvious stumbling block that the opposition faces is the uncomfortable fact that the LDP did so well in the last general election. This allows them to shed a great deal of fat and still emerge with a respectable number of parliamentary seats.

Hatoyama has stated that the DPJ's goal is to become the largest single party in the Diet. Yet to do so is going to take a combination of credible policies that will sway younger urban voters and what might be termed the fingers-crossed scenario. He has to hope that his party can not only persuade the uncommitted "floating voter" to back him but also look sufficiently ministerial that lots of the LDP backers sit it out on Aug 30. If large numbers of former conservative voters stay at home and watch television, then the omens are highly favorable for today's main opposition party.

It may well be that after years of bumbling government by the LDP, most potential voters have already made up their minds that it is time for a change. The campaigning underway with its plethora of similar promises to improve education, cut down on wasteful expenditure, sort out the mess over pensions and adopt a cautious line on prospects for any increase in the much loathed consumption (value added) may have relatively little impact. If so, then Aso's bid to demonstrate he has sound economic policies and the experience to continue to run the country won't be worth a row of beans.

The DPJ, though, must be careful to avoid appearing over-confident. Should they do less well that their staunchest supporters believe, the danger will be that an unholy mess could quickly surround us. Financial markets would then take a dive and the yen would weaken against the dollar, though Japan's beleaguered exporters might well reckon that sizable currency shifts could represent a blessing in disguise to outweigh the other uncertainties.

It should not be forgotten that there are already groups of proto-political parties assembling in the wings. If the DPJ doesn't perform as expected, it seems reasonable to assume that such forces will make a strong effort to approach members of both the existing LDP and DPJ parties. Any number of possibilities and party permutations might then emerge. A succession of weak coalition cabinets could follow if the LDP vote collapses but the Democrats fail to sweep the country.

Should the final aftermath of the election be a lengthy spell of mish-mash coalitions, then Aso
may yet be able to pat himself on the back. He is most unlikely to be able to gain any immediate extension in office for his own party but the eventual outcome could yet be a return to government of a chastened LDP.

Perhaps this is what important segments of Japan's electorate already have in mind: first, teach the conservatives a lesson, then give the Democrats, plus its smaller allies, their chance and finally be prepared, if there were to be a repetition of what happened after the July 1993 election when Morihiro Hosakawa's seven party anti-LDP coalition quickly fragmented, to welcome back the old guard.

It all sounds mighty messy but in the last resort, that is how things could pan out. Confusing, highly unpredictable and likely to elicit yet more moans at the breakfast table: Welcome to the upcoming world of multi-party parliamentary democracy Japanese-style.

© Japan Today