China is doing very nicely for the moment, thank you

A shame they can't seem to keep Siberian tigers from starvation, though. You'd think with all this prosperity, it would trickle down to the Zoo's; its workers, and the unfed animals.

Soon China will be the "NEW" United States, influencing and controlling outher countries. The new arms dealer of the world & peace keeper. The negative & positive.

Brit making a fast shilling off people's fears.

China's progress can be measured by its polluted, degraded environment. Once they have destroyed their own country they will take over African countries to provide food and resources. The new colonialism is already under way.

Which country imports the most Chinese-made goods?

China has huge problems that could derail its economic growth in the years ahead. There are vast differences in living standards between regions, and hundreds of millions of people have no access to decent education or health care. There's also the little problem of the millions of missing girls, aborted or quietly killed at birth because of the crazy one-child policy. If China's economy continues to grow, they're going to run up against a labor shortage brick wall, and without all those girls, the present generation is going to have trouble breeding the next generation for the workers' paradise. And I haven't even mentioned the human rights problems and corruption caused by the CCP's dislike for the rule of law.

Although I haven't read the book, I did see an in-depth interview with Mr.Jacques, who came off as a little bit too sensationalist, perhaps to spur sales. Yes, China will continue to grow, but there is never any certainty with a repressive government. Alan, you mention some good points and I for one think that China will never attain the greatness many predict because of any number of things the authorities can't predict or control. The communist government that many admire( for its economic prowess ) will ultimately be it's achilles'heel.

China basically has America and WALMART to thank for their success. Thanks to China's cheap labor lack of environmental concern and total lack of HUMAN RIGHTS and America's insatiable demand for CHEAP CRAP. China has become what it has. You cannot go down one aisle in a walmart(besides the food aisle) and NOT find 95% of everything there MADE IN CHINA. I have done my best to boycott China and Walmart, I average going there once or twice a year and I do my best to try and purchase products made elsewhere. FREE TIBET!!!

CHINA may be doing great but they suck on human rights check out this video on their coal mines, an average of 100 people a day die.http://www.honkytonk.fr/index.php/webdoc/

China is doing well on the surface. Everything in China is about face, even if you have to lie about it. Saving face is paramount to China's relationship with the world. The problems that China faces and will face in the future pales in comparison to what the west and Japan is undergoing now. Pollution, water shortages, population unrest, ethnic/minority strifes, protests, riots against everything from work conditions to Han oppression. These are just a few of the many, many problems facing China now and well into the future, and a lot of these problems cannot be solved by economic clout or political influence. When the people are pissed off enough, China(the party in control anyways) would collapse like the house of cards that it is. And this is coming from someone who's spent a third of his life in China up to now, have heavily invested in this place in terms of energy, money, resources and know how. As a foreign born Chinese who had high hopes and aspirations for what the future holds for China, I've also seen what could and possibly would bring China to it's knees sometimes in the next 20 years. The way things are done in China are a lot more unsustainable than any other places in the world. Most of the people cannot think for themselves, only regurgitate whatever instructions is handed down to them. How do I know this? I hire uni grads, while their higher education is supposed to give them a headstart in terms of being able to think ahead and outside the box, it's the opposite. I had more luck with creative thinking working with uneducated peasantry. Seriously. For those who think China will lead the world or that this is China's century, have a few more tainted gyozas on the CCCP, drink some DDT-added baijiu and open your eyes, really open your eyes.

um,,,I feel China has been experiencing exactly the same thing what Japan and west had experienced maybe hundred years ago.

You better get used to it. China is the next frontier. Chinese civilization has been around for thousands of years and would be for ever. It is the "mother-land" of asian countries. Chinese people and the low cost and no frills living should be an example to the western people. Better start "kissing up" to China now and learn to speak Chinese.

Soviet Union was doing "great" too, right until it collapsed (I was there). A country where all negative information about it is brutally surpassed has no future as a world leader. Money will only buy you so much and if the rest of the world perceives you as a corrupt and brutal regime (which is in fact what china is), they will not except your leadership. Remember, all it takes to ruin Chinese economy is for US and Europe to stop trading with them (which they have a right to considering numerous consumer products safety violations).

Well, I don't know how to take this analysis.It is a little too pro-free markets and pro-capitalism for me.

"Better start "kissing up" to China now and learn to speak Chinese"

She-she! Ha ha!

I can't believe how many of you believe, or want to believe, this sensationalist garbage. As for China being "oppressive", do any of you know people from China or do you just listen to rehashed Western lies? As for labor shortages, why does the world need more people? Many place are already over-crowded. Many of you who want Japan to fall constantly manage its shrinking and aging population as if it's a permanent thing. Have any of you looked at the Western countries with massive debt and virtually non-functioning economies? They're he ones in trouble.

When the 2008 financial collapse occurred in the United States, I remember vividly talks among my colleagues of having to rush out and move money from one bank to another for fear of losing their cash. Even though the FDIC insures each account up to a certain amount, but that's besides the issue. My point is, the US and the 'Western' world came damn close to having their 'House of Cards' crumble. We are now in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, with record unemployment among the G-8, along with record budget deficits in the US, Japan, Great Britain, and Southern Europe, not to mention Iceland, etc. All of these mentioned countries are now begging for Chinese cash.

So the main point here is, Wen Jiabao might be touting his horn and looking rather confident as he represents a nation that has not only weathered the financial crisis, but excelled during it. No one here can blame China's leadership for making at current what appears to be all the right moves, while the US stumbles with all the wrong moves.

So the main point here is, Wen Jiabao might be touting his horn and looking rather confident as he represents a nation that has not only weathered the financial crisis, but excelled during it.

China stimulated and loaned their way out of the crisis. We'll see if that works long-term. They have the same problem as everyone else: demand is being driven by stimulus right now and would plummet if the stimulus is removed.

Japan's "record deicit" is only 102% of its income when things such as foreign exchange reserves are taken into account. Also, the only nation I see "begging" for money are Western ones. Japan has the ability to pay down its own debt. Do some research before you post.

'Japan has the ability to pay down its own debt.'

And, how come Japan hasn't done so? Think before you spout.

China and India will really take the world stage in the next 50 years.

The US made a serious strategy mistake just like what it's western civilization ancestor- Roman empire did: to pour too much resource for military power to keep conquering ability and caused long term loss in other aspects. Eastern civilization tell people to only keep minimum necessary power, for it's just a "bad" killing ability, and go after other real things. (refer to " The art of war" by Sun tze). So even eastern civilization might be some 200-300 years go down at times, it will finally recover. To check human history you will know it.

Japan will be fine. If you people are s smart and think Japan is so inferior to the West then explain why the West is in worse debt than Japan. Japan's debt is domestically owned, which makes it far more stable than America's debt, which is 44% foreign-owned. How about Britain? It has a debt 400%-plus of its GDP. Oh, I forgot, white people are perfect and incapable of doing anything wrong and are genetically superior to white people. India becoming a world power? China becoming a world power? They don't even have he ability to feed their own people.

China is natural resource poor (with such a large land mass you wouldn't think that). =It will be up to the Chinese people to continuously redefine themselves much like Japan.

=All the Chinese political posturing hurts (holds back) the Chinese people -their largest richest resource.

Hey Jeff,

I agree with most of your post, including the idea that Japan is in a far better situation in terms of their debt being domestically owned than much of the West. Indeed.

But I disagree with your below quote:

'India becoming a world power? China becoming a world power? They don't even have he ability to feed their own people.'

From my understanding, China is not only successfully feeding it's own people, but Japan's people too. Yes, that scares the heck out of Japan, knowing that they have become completely dependent on China for much of their food supply, but that should be a subject for another article.

Henry Hilton was right. China is doing very nicely for the moment, thank you.

Hey Jeff,

'Japan has been unable to meet its own nutritional requirements for decades and is only able to produce 40 percent of the food it consumes; much of the rest comes from China.'

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20080407ve.html

Perhaps Japan can simply say 'thank you'.

Why should Japan thank anyone for selling them food? Japan PAYS for the food, it's not a gift.

Hey Jeff,

I believe this comment belongs to you:

"India becoming a world power? China becoming a world power? They don't even have he ability to feed their own people."

As I have cited an article from the Japan Times detailing the fact that China supplies much of what Japan eats, I strongly suggest that you do some research before you post.

I am not going to try and predict China's future, but I did read somewhere a day or two ago that the only two previous times in modern history when a country had built such large reserves (about 5% of world GDP) through trade surpluses was America in the 1920's and Japan in the 1980's. And we all know what happened next.

Yes, that scares the heck out of Japan, knowing that they have become completely dependent on China for much of their food supply

Actually, it's on a declining trend (down to 11% in 2008)

Instead of relying on some dumb writer from Japantimes, maybe you should research on your own.

http://www.jetro.go.jp/world/japan/stats/trade/pdf/import0708_2.pdf

Nigel,

I commend your research, which essentially confirms that Japan is dependent on China for it's food supply. Here's what I found:

"China’s share of the Japanese import market is 17 per cent, and the annual average increase in the last decade is about 5 per cent, which might not sound much, but it is important to remember that this particular sector of trade, compared with for instance manufacturing, has been going on for a longer period of time, and is therefore stabilizing. Japan is clearly dependent on China for food."

http://www.pa-international.org/documents/FinalResearchReport1-03-2008_000.pdf

I commend your research, which essentially confirms that Japan is dependent on China for it's food supply. Here's what I found:

What you found was based on 2006 which China had a share of 17%. However, the figures declined to 15.5% and 11.4% in subsequent years of 2007 and 2008, respectively. I wouldn't call that an increase nor stabilizing.

For 2009:

"Imports of foodstuffs remained at the same level, with demand for Chinese low-cost food items recovering, reflecting a still weakened Japanese economy."

http://www.japancorp.net/Article.Asp?Art_ID=22517

For 2009:

So let's sum this up. 11.4% in 2008 and your quote above states "at the same label" in 2009.

Now let's get back to your original quote so we could all laugh.

"Yes, that scares the heck out of Japan, knowing that they have become completely dependent on China for much of their food supply"

11%=Completely dependent. Thanks for the laugh once again.

China need to change policies that keep its yuan currency cheap, effectively subsidizing Chinese exports and taxing competing imports. When there's a 25 percent to 40 percent undervaluation that reduces the price of a product coming in, that's not fair. In the background is the realization that China is a major holder of U.S. debt. China should approached the currency using a more market based interpretation.

The U.S. trade deficit with China actually increased from $202 billion to $268 billion from 2005 to 2008. When China gets international pressure to adjust its currency policy, it seems to resist that pressure. It doesn't like to be pushed around. U.S. Congress already urged the Obama administration in a letter to label China a currency manipulator and take other steps to persuade Beijing to raise the value of its currency against the dollar.

Equally important, China has also plowed its export earnings into purchases of U.S. debt, helping keep American interest rates low. Chinese surpluses come at the expense of jobs and employment elsewhere in the world. With China seen buying some $1 billion in dollars each day to keep the yuan stable, few U.S. economists dispute that China is manipulating its currency. But not all agree on what the remedy should be.

Nigelboy,

Admittedly, Japan's imports of China's food has taken a nose dive after the dumpling scare and the percentage of total food imports from China has fallen. That said:

"Japan imports 60 percent of its food, giving it the lowest self-sufficiency rate among the Group of Seven rich nations. China is Japan's top provider of food after the United States."

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jSs5Ufm866hcQf4xqPlxqa3luKPg

So my understanding is, the laugh is still on you.

We better help China rise peacefully to the world stage so that it may contribute to the prosperity and stability of this region. But I didn't take Wen's speech to be so self-congratulatory. It's rather strange for a rising power that about 100,000 cases of riots occur annually in the country (whereas none in declining Japan) and in 2008 alone as many CCP members fled from China after lining their pockets by bribery or abuse of their authority. Also Beijing takes the policy of not revaluing yuan while accumulating huge trade surplus. How can they check inflation and roll off yuans and yuans domestically in exchange for dollars they obtained? About time for the US to take the offensive perhaps. Not sure though if Japan can sit on the rail expecting China to go on very nicely.

I agree with you Jeff. People do not know anything about China situation. China have problems like all the countries do. Even America have problems with racial differences. But China is such a big country and have so many ethnicities combined together, it makes it hard. I know Chinese people and are very nice and like their country, like many people like their country. There is no Eutopia

Yes, China has it's growth problems, and govt corruption is out of control. But we can all anticipate high growth rates in China for the next few years.

As for Japan's declining value, I'll leave the comments to the experts:

"Japan Becoming 'Irrelevant' in the Global Economy: Strategist"

Japan is slowly becoming irrelevant as a part of the global economy, said Kirby Daley, senior strategist at the Newedge Group.

“The problem is , demographically, it is beyond the point of no return. And there is no catalyst that we can see out there, where Japan has an edge,” Daley told CNBC on Monday.

Japan cannot sustain itself on domestic demand, its citizens don’t have the propensity to consume, Daley explained. “Demand can never pick up in Japan as long as the fiscal situation is so bad.”

“The government is going the wrong way -- They're exacerbating the fiscal issues, they're holding back the domestic consumer in Japan,” Daley added.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35868624

I have not read the book "When China rule the world". So I do not wish to comment about it. However I have read the book "The coming collapse of China" by Gordon Chang. The book was published in 2001. It has been almost 10 years now. It is absolutely rubbish and LOL. On the contrary, Gordon chang residing country has collapsed financially. It is on the mercy of the creditors.

I do not understand that he is so negative about his ancestor birth place. Whether we like it or not, China is superior economically. It has enormous amount of publc saving. During the cris, the government can afford to spend for infrastructure projects for stimulating the economy.

The beauty of one party ruling system is an efficiency. They can decide the budget, location and design within a day. Everywhere in China is mushrooming with the construction projects. These projects will get the return in the long term such as high speed rail network. Country townships are started experimenting the universal health care system like Canada or Australia. Chinese do not like debating in the senate or parliment. They like building the power plant, highway and airports with the maximum speed.

Culturally and historically, Chinese are big savers. They prefer cash over the credit. Individual saving and stable trade surplus protect the china as great wall from global economic downturn.

The another advantage of China is a huge consumer market. In the past, economists predicted China will not survive without the north America market. On the contrary, China has own domestic vibrant consumers. they underestimated the Chinese consumers purchasing power and urbanization. At the moment, China export markets are weak. The growth come from rural area and less well off western regions of the China.

China political system has both weakness and strength. The weakness is corruption and nepotism because of the one party autocratic rule. The strength is they can implement the necessary restructuring promptly during the touch time.

Their GDP is reasonable although not spectcular like before. They have already maintained their growth for more than 30 years now. China reformed the economy since 1978. The question is whether they can sustain for another 30 years. If they can they have performed the herculian task.

Double the minimum wage in Japan.