China looks to learn from Russian failures in Ukraine

Whether they’re watching and learning from Russia’s failures and the rest of the world’s more forceful than expected responses is hard to know. 

I think the speed, coordination and severity of western sanctions surprised the CCP, cough cough, "leadership". For the past decade they have had an extremely low opinion of western governments, viewing them as weak and indecisive. The Chinese have exploited some of those divisions to their benefit too. The culmination that made China see themselves as so much superior to the west has been the pandemic.

So to see the allies pull together in less than a week, kick Russia out of the global financial system, embargo most trade, deny their airspace to Russian airlines, boot over 100 of their spies and shovel mountains of military hardware at the Ukrainians has probably forced the CCP to re-evaluate their opinions of western cohesion in the face of a threat. If the CCP ever entertained ideas that the west would look the other way while they invaded Taiwan they cannot do so now.

It's a bit of a strange article. The analysis of the Russia conflict seems...surface-level at best, but presumably not his area of expertise so that's fine. I just don't really see where the parallel to China is. 

China's military hardware and warfighting doctrine are not that far removed from Soviet / Russian practice. Their tanks are no better protected than the Russian tanks we see in Ukraine with their turrets in one place and the rest of the tank somewhere else (the fatal flaw of the Russian auto loaders the Chinese also use, they put 20 rounds of ammo in the crew compartment). They share the same basic design flaws not found in the best western tanks. Much the same is true across the board with their air and naval forces though their naval hardware is probably better in some ways than anything the Russians have. The Russians haven't built a modern air defense destroyer since the 1980s and never had one with modern phased array radars like the Type 052C/D and Type 055. The Chinese tried mightily to make their own combat drones perform in Libya with limited success so it must gall them to see how successful the Turkish drones are against the Russians (no surprise as those same Bayraktar drones performed well against Russian mercenary forces and Syrian allies using the best modern Russian SHORADS also in Libya), and how the Ukrainians have exploited simple commercial quadcopters with cameras on board for both tactical and propaganda purposes. The Chinese are probably also looking at the degree of just civilian resistance encountered in Ukraine, combined with the fact that unlike invading Ukraine with which Russia shares a land border, China has to bring everything across the water in the face of Taiwanese, US and probably Australian and Japanese submarines, naval mines deployed from aircraft and the many Ray-ting 2000 batteries (indigenous Taiwanese system much like the M-270 MLRS) the Taiwanese have that Ukrainians so far do not (the US needs to transfer M-270s to Ukraine post haste !). Not enough Chinese forces might survive the landing to take Taiwanese cities in the face of determined opposition.

The Chinese civil leadership may have also been of the opinion like Mr. Putin that there forces would be welcomed. They may have even been briefed how easy and certain such an operation would be from their military leadership. Now they see how wrong those assumptions turned out and decide perhaps to rethink their plans.

The Government China is just another political contortion Putin's twisted Russian dictatorship.

The great 21st century pretender, political fraudsters.

Genocide, crimes against humanity on a industrial scale.

It's a bit of a strange article. The analysis of the Russia conflict seems...surface-level at best, but presumably not his area of expertise so that's fine. I just don't really see where the parallel to China is. It's comparing Russia to an inherently non-interventionist nation. China doesn't benefit by attacking Taiwan, even if it was over overnight. There's no real reason for them to do so, unless Taiwan actually tries to declare independence.

@Skeptical

I mean, that's probably not a problem for them, China isn't really involved in wars against other countries. They have some border conflicts with India and...that is really all since 1979.

@Aly Rustom

At least as of right now, any sanctions against China are going to be pretty self-defeating. Other countries need China much more than the inverse. Even moreso than with Russia now.

There's another very important lesson for the Xi male to learn- in the face of naked aggression the western world will unite and is still able to impose crippling sanctions if need be. Its not just about military might. Its about severe damage to the economy. Ping had better keep it in his pants and back off Taiwan.

Conversely, the Ukraine experience could prompt China to accelerate its timetable on Taiwan with a more limited attack, such as seizing an outlying island, as a real-world test of its own military, Chen said.

China's neighbors should beware. The temptation on a rising power that has recently modernized and upgraded its' military to test it in the field is very strong.

China really wants to learn the most valuable lesson from the Ukraine invasion.

Simple!

Don't invade your neighbor!