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Fear throws its hat into the ring for 2016 race

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Fear is back. It looks like 2004 all over again.

In 2004, the terrorism issue spelled doom for Democrats. It was the first presidential election after 9/11. Democrat John Kerry was challenging President George W. Bush's re-election.

Republicans turned the election into a referendum on terrorism. "We are not yet safe," Vice President Dick Cheney declared. "Threats are still out there. The terrorists are still plotting and planning, trying to find ways to attack the United States." Democrats accused Republicans of exploiting fear. "A true leader inspires hope and vanquishes fear," Senator Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) said. "This administration does neither. Instead, it brings fear."

Last month, President Barack Obama charged that Republicans "have been playing on fear in order to try to score political points or to advance their campaigns." But the fear is real. More than 80% of Americans believe a major terrorist attack is likely to happen in the United States in the near future, according to a Nov 20, ABCNews/Washington Post poll.

Usually during a crisis, a "rally around the flag" effect boosts a president's standing with voters. Not this time. Fifty-four percent of Americans disapprove of Obama's handling of terrorism, the same poll showed. That's the lowest rating on terrorism of his career.

French President Francois Hollande promised, "France will be merciless against the barbarians of death." He said his country would fight "without a respite, without a truce. It is not a question of containing but of destroying" Islamic State. Americans wanted to hear that kind of resolve from their own president. Instead they heard it from a French socialist.

Going into the 2016 campaign, the terrorism issue once again presents a problem for Democrats. Polling by Reuters after the Paris attacks shows terrorism rated as the nation's top issue, eclipsing the economy and jobs.

The Democratic nominee will have to run on Obama's record. "Hillary Clinton can't walk away from President Obama's failing ISIS strategy because she helped craft it and even praised it," a spokesman for the Republican National Committee said.

The biggest political problem Democrats face is one that didn't come up in 2004: refugees. Obama called Republican opposition to admitting refugees "shameful" and "a betrayal of our values." He mocked Republican critics, saying "They're scared of widows and orphans coming into the United States of America as part of our tradition of compassion."

House Speaker Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) response: "Better to be safe than to be sorry." Americans oppose "the United States taking in refugees from the conflicts in Syria and other Mideast countries after screening them for security" by 54 to 43% in the ABCNews/Washington Post poll. Forty percent are "strongly opposed."

Bush won in 2004. Former President Bill Clinton had warned his fellow Democrats, "Strong and wrong beats weak and right." Nevertheless, there are reasons why it may be different in 2016.

One of them is Donald Trump. The latest Reuters poll of Republican voters nationwide shows Trump surging into the lead for the 2016 Republican nomination, with nearly 40% of the vote. If congressional Republicans are unable to block Obama's plan to admit Syrian refugees, conservatives may erupt in fury at GOP leaders and rally to Trump's support.

Even if Trump doesn't win the Republican nomination, he is defining the Republican Party's image for 2016. It's not a good image. All the polls for the past month show a majority of Americans with an unfavorable opinion of Trump (the average is 55 percent unfavorable to 37% favorable).

There's another reason why 2016 may be different. Republicans have declared a new culture war. Republican attacks on refugees are not just anti-terrorist. They are anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim.

The United States has changed in the past decade. In 2004, conservatives got anti-same sex marriage measures on the ballot in 11 states. The measures passed in every state, many by landslide margins. And they did exactly what they were intended to do. They brought conservative voters out to re-elect Bush.

Now a solid majority of Americans favors same sex marriage. Measures to legalize gay marriage passed in all four states where they were on the ballot in 2012.

Diversity has become a fact in the United States, but it's meeting with resistance from many Republicans. Representative Steve King (R-Iowa) has argued that Obama's refugee plan aims to counter low fertility rates of native-born Americans and "fill America up in a fashion that has kicked sideways . . . assimilation into the American dream, American civilization."

Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla), along with other Republican contenders, has criticized Hillary Clinton for refusing to condemn Islamic terrorism by name. "This is a clash of civilizations," Rubio said. "There is no middle ground." Governor John Kasich (R-Ohio) raised the idea of creating a new federal agency to promote "Judeo-Christian values."

The refugee issue has become fodder in the ongoing culture war. These days, however, Republicans find themselves at a disadvantage on most cultural issues. The electorate is becoming better educated, less religious, more tolerant and much more diverse. Especially as the millennial generation arrives. Positioning themselves as a resistance movement against diversity and inclusion is not likely to do Republicans a lot of good.

After 9/11, Americans were united for exactly one year. It ended in September 2002 when President Bush began to roll out plans for the Iraq war. Then, it took a year for the country's bitter divisions to resurface. After the Paris attacks, it took less than a week.

© (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2015.

©2024 GPlusMedia Inc.

13 Comments
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Now I am scared when seeing who the Republican front runners are. Think about President Trump. Or President Cruz, who is just as bad.

4 ( +7 / -3 )

Though in the US frequently just half (give or take) of eligible voters vote, I wonder to what extent people would vote for a candidate or vote simply against a candidate.

Trump seems to be trying hard to alienate so many minorities (and not just ethnicity-defined minorities). Ironically more of those classes vote proportionately, so I wonder that, if Trump gets over the line at the nomination stage, it the election there would become just a pro/anti=Trump referendum, as there seems to be no coherent middle ground as all those Republicans continue to gauge each others' eyes out.

Keep on gauging!

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

All the polls for the past month show a majority of Americans with an unfavorable opinion of Trump (the average is 55 percent unfavorable to 37% favorable).

Too bad.

That's what happens to psychopathic liars. Seems like most Americans have registered that concern about the bloated red-faced Rump. People tend to think of psychopathic liars as delusional and dangerous.

But, then again that's what most people think of the GOP Shia-Tea.

When they stand with Pastor Swanson, who urges the slaughter of homosexuals, and the NRA who defends the slaughter of children as a price of freedom; there's always that funny feeling that maybe, just maybe, there's something wrong with a political party that lies it's way to killing 100,000 innocent people and promises a forever war with concentration camps and racism as a guiding principle of a civilized society.

Of course, everyone needs a hero. The GOP Shia-Tea heroes seem to be racists, homophobes and gun nuts who crave the justification to kill in the name of their prejudices. If fear is all they have to sell a program of slaughter, hopefully the numbers in the 2016 election will reflect the same disgust that polls show for Rump the Great today.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Governor John Kasich (R-Ohio) raised the idea of creating a new federal agency to promote “Judeo-Christian values.”

As a Republican, you'd expect John Kasich to want small government, but instead he wants to expand it into a theocracy like Iran or Saudi Arabia. How do these sorts of people even exist in modern developed democracies?

3 ( +4 / -1 )

you'd expect John Kasich to want small government, but instead he wants to expand it into a theocracy like Iran or Saudi Arabia - comments

A fair illustration of the GOP Shia-Tea.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

If you study history, and the Republican candidates campaign, Trump especially, you'll notice that the same tactics and rhetoric used by the NAZI' bund of America, and Germany, are the same; right down to the roughing up of objectors. History is indeed repeating itself.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

Fifty-four percent of Americans disapprove of Obama’s handling of terrorism, the same poll showed. That’s the lowest rating on terrorism of his career.

. . But . . . but . . he said the JV team was "contained". 54%? This can't be so. His administration recently announced puting "Special Operations Forces" on the ground to disrupt ISIS.

A fair illustration of the GOP Shia-Tea.

And likewise, a fair illustration of failed foreign policy in the ME.

-3 ( +3 / -6 )

Dick Cheney declared. “Threats are still out there. The terrorists are still plotting and planning, trying to find ways to attack the United States.”

Terrorists attack the U.S.A?

Surely that's a conspiracy theory isn't it?

0 ( +3 / -3 )

"Governor John Kasich (R-Ohio) raised the idea of creating a new federal agency to promote “Judeo-Christian values.”

Would they be give all you have to the poor, turn the other cheek and do not repay evil with evil? Is Kasich a pacifist lefty?

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Terrorists attack the U.S.A?

They'd love to do it again. This is why the US should rescind the decision to allow for the tens of thousands of syrian refugees.

Unfortunately, Paris was an even easier target for them. @Bertie. Why wouldn't you think that terrorists intend to attack?

Thankfully, the Obama administration, is taking an abrupt policy shift over there. He once said, "There will be no boots on the ground" but NOW special ops forces are there.

The longer they sit, the rustier they'll become. They need an objective very soon.

Don't forget that both France and Russia are pissed-off too.

-6 ( +1 / -7 )

They've got a huge misprint in the title of this article. "Fear" didn't throw its hat into the ring. We Americans are always afraid of something. It's "bigotry" that threw its hat into the ring.

In past elections, the GOP candidates had to at least make a token effort to disguise the bigotry they wanted to take advantage of. They had to use dog-whistle tactics, like saying, "urban youth" when they meant "black teens", "illegal immigrants" when they meant "Latinos", or "family values" then they meant "white Anglo-Saxon Protestant straight couples in a monogamous marriage with 2.5 children in a suburban neighborhood where everyone is terrified of expressing the slightest difference from each other."

But thanks to Trump, they've been emboldened to stop hiding what they really mean.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

But thanks to Trump, they've been emboldened to stop hiding what they really mean ("bigotry"). - comments

Rump the Great has demanded the assault of protesters and shown the GOP Shia-Tea will join in with their gleeful celebration of violence and slaughter because Rump says so.

This disgusting human, this bloated red faced bigot has become the GOP front runner because he represents all the GOP has to offer the world.

They flock to his prejudice. They fawn his independence. They cheer his demands for dictatorship.

What's the problem? That's what the Constitution says. Rump is just living the dream of the Founding Fathers. Why is everyone so critical all of a sudden? Rump is just telling like it is, man.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Hm. I keep forgetting....How many jihadist attacks occurred under Obama...?

I want to say thousands. I remember thousands and thousands! I saw it on TV. Many people here think so too!

0 ( +1 / -1 )

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