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Korean chaos theory

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By Allan Orr

After the latest chemical attack by the Assad regime forced the U.S. to conduct unilateral Syrian air strikes recently, North Korea was bumped to page two after some intense media focus post-Trump inauguration.

The situation was short-lived, however, after North Korean posturing warning of "catastrophic" geo-regional consequences should the model be enacted North of the De-Militarized Zone pushed it back to share page one coverage globally. If policy consensus on North Korea stands that the rogue Goyan nation cannot be allowed to develop further a nuclear capability placing Anchorage, Tokyo and Darwin in range, then how is that accomplished under the half-century-old Korean chaos theory?

Outside of the contemporary Korean nuclear conundrum, the original crippling variable within the North Korean formula persisting post-Berlin Wall to remain essentially unnavigable for approaching 70 years now continues to be the hateful amount of DPRK artillery within range of South Korean cities right now, along with the implied repercussions for Tokyo (now a nuclear attack). Holding Seoul hostage with double entendres missile diplomacy has allowed North Korea to be granted a degree of immunity from the U.N. Security Council few other nations have enjoyed since World War Two and particularly post-Soviet implosion.

Allowing the rogue state to germinate unfettered has been a dismal policy failure. Honolulu will soon be in range of the ever developing North Korean nuclear missile program, Los Angeles and Sydney not long after. It has to; it is the Northeast Asian regime’s only "trump" card and only way to ensure its continued survival via the ransom that is the U.N. food program. North Korea simply cannot stop until it puts the U.S. in check with a nuclear deterrent, and the sooner the better. Until it does, it remains vulnerable. Like former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, in Kim Jong-Un’s mind, his only real play to achieve regime security is the WMD card. Continued development for the next hundred years is thus Korean Workers Party strategic policy.

Some pundits when looking at the "box" of Korea espouse allowing South Korea to develop its own Israeli-style micro-nuclear arsenal, overt or covert (so long as the North knows about it). Introducing more nukes in Asia should be the last resort. China is already aggressively testing a fledgling expansionist policy, Japan is shaking and so wading the public waters looking for increased militarization, and forcing Russia in turn to move more of its aged tactical nuclear fleet east in a typically Russian show of force is a recipe for disaster.

Ironically, U.S. President Donald Trump may have already stumbled upon the solution, commenting recently the U.S. will go it alone on North Korea if need be. If sanctioning a North Korean nuclear capability is not going to be U.S. policy under Trump and the U.S. is planning seriously for military options on the peninsula, then it needs to truly go it alone - 100%. It may seem counter-intuitive but all U.S. forces should be withdrawn from South Korea under any regime change policy, and possibly likewise from Japan. By extracting U.S. forces from these two countries pre-hostilities both Seoul and Tokyo can effectively "plead" with the U.S. not to invade North Korea, and the U.S. can in turn effectively ignore the diplomatic and media wide requests. If Japan and South Korea do not host U.S. forces, publicly oppose war-like U.S. actions and in the case of South Korea pull their forces back to hold at the edges of northern cities like Seoul, then they can be shielded to the maximum extent possible from North Korean retaliatory targeting. Postwar U.S. basing rights, which are hot topics in both countries, could also be redrawn anew to accommodate more modern strategic and political realities.

The U.S. can easily invade North-Korea amphibiously, can stealthily insert copious amounts of air power unknown to air defenses, and has already been conducting dry-runs with Special Forces tasked with decapitation raids on KWP executives. South Korea has not needed U.S. forces to defend against or deter northern aggression for decades given its 2:1 population advantage and 40:1 economic advantage (currently a token force of some 20, 000 - 40, 000 American troops with 50, 000 more stationed in Japan), and without its key hostage or hostages Chaos Theory in Korea simplifies fast. Whether the move was seen as a U.S. initiative or a Korea and/or Japan request citing policy differences would crystallise as the strategy solidified. Looking forward under this policy lens, there will likely be no bloody Iraq style counter-insurgency campaign in nuclear addicted North Korea. Its people are cowed not committed, and too hungry either way to resist meaningfully post-decapitation. The absorption burden of northern reconstruction will rightfully fall to the party who will gain most from a 50% rise in human potential - South Korea, as will any native counterinsurgency effort if needed under the 600,000 strong, ultra-modern South Korean army.

Allan Orr is a strategic studies researcher. His PhD thesis was examined by now NSA General Herbert McMaster, his Masters thesis was used as textbook material by the Coalition counter-insurgency Academy at Taji, Iraq during the war and his other publications can be found a http://www.intersecmag.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/int-feb-34-36-low.pdf & http://www.tandfonline.com/author/Orr%2C+Allan

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8 Comments
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Fake news

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

It's an opinion piece labeled as such. Not news. Therefore not fake news.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

After the latest chemical attack by the Assad regime

Mr Orr starts off with an assumption he tries to pass off as fact...and on top an assertion there has been a whole string on a regular basis of 'chemical attacks' by the 'Assad Regime'. There is plenty of evidence of chemical attacks by rebel forces and other atrocities...but that does not fit the story line does it: 'Assad is a monster'. I should not have to point out his interviews in English shows him to be a more intelligent and literate person than the latest pretender to take charge of 'The Worlds Policeman': President Trump. How odd this 'chemical attack' was less than one week after the USA bombing disaster in Mosul where 200 civillians lost their lives. And a subsequent 'show piece' pointless bombing of a Syrian Airfield (and a few more maimed and injured there)..and the electoral poll findings of a Trump slump so sabre rattling at North Korea whilst the declared 'Armada' was found a week later a 1,000 miles away heading towards Australia. North Korea may be difficult but to condemn them for wanting to protect themselves with nuclear weapons when defenceless middle east countries are invaded and wasted by forces claiming to uphold democracy and peace. I note how Mr Orr has his model soldiers and cardboard battlefield in place and done his calculations.......but he leaves out the human misery on all sides and the negation of a country doing its best to come to terms with USA policy post-World War ll that tried to lay waste to now North Korea, Vietnam (what about THOSE chemical weapons then Mr Orr!), to Iraq, Lybia, Afghanistan and other countries they were trying to create 'in their own image'. The list is seemingly endless counting in Macarthyism ('reds under the bed'....even Charlie Chaplin barred!), the Cold War, breaking an agreement with Russia not to place weapons on their border (causing the Cuban Missile Crisis) and even watching whilst the IRA collected money from Irish-American's used to buy Semtex from Gadaffi whilst Gerry Adams was wined and dined at The White House....(and that was brought to an end due to 9 / 11 when the USA found what it was like to suffer the results of terrorism.). And, to our shame, nearly always supported by a British Government. If Assad has blood on his hands 'we' have been bathing in it.....and it can not go on. We now know the only true principle involved is testing grounds and markets to sell USA and Bristih weapons to keep the American and British workforce sated on consumerism whilst large parts of the world are poverty stricken and war torn.

What the USA is really scared of is the growing power and economies of China and Russia and others joining them whilst the house of cards economy built on ever increasing inflation and trade....akin to a chain letter rampant sold to the insane.....collapses (as it did during the banking crisis....not far from completely) never to recover and plunging the world into a modern 'Dark Ages' crisis.

And there you have it in the appendage of Mr Orr's 'expert assumptions'......USA hawk McMaster and counter insurgents in Iraq study Mr Orr......fat lot of good that did anyone on the end of the human misery it caused. Its all about 'fisticuffs' isn't it Mr Orr....not one mention of trying to understand 'thy neighbour' and asking him how we can live peacfully together whilst accepting 'their family' wants to live a different lifestyle to 'ours'.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Fake news

So you think he doesn't really hold the opinions stated in the article? Why would he be lying about the opinions he old?

1 ( +2 / -1 )

The only right way to solving this conflict is not escalating it. The regime in North Korea, if devoid of people support and relying on terror and violence only, will crumble under itself in due time, as it always happened in the past. Pushing it harder to the edge from outside does not anyhow contribute to overall humanity prosperity and well-being. Besides, without North Korea there would be no way to justify to the mass the insane tendencies of militarism, from both U.S.A and Japanese side. There is Russia, of course, but less and less people are buying anti-Russian hysteria. Anti-Chinese hysteria seems to work well though...

1 ( +2 / -1 )

I do not doubt that Trump is capable of ordering attacks on North Korea, but I do doubt that he is capable of doing so in a way that is at all competent. The nature of the Trump presidency has been one show of incompetency after another. To believe that he will suddenly become a skillful international strategist amounts to self-delusion.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

There is no reason that NK would decide not to attack Japan, SK or anywhere else if US troops leave. I'm not saying they should be there or need to be there, but removing them won't make any difference in this respect.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

So you think he doesn't really hold the opinions stated in the article? Why would he be lying about the opinions he old?

Of course not. Logical people know that Assad didn't launch the chem attack. False flag. So, he's just a tool.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

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