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Russian President Vladimir Putin has adopted a "go it alone" approach throughout the Ukraine crisis and regularly describes his country as "independent" and nonaligned. But Moscow is not as isolated as Putin makes out. The fact that he cannot see this reality -- or chooses to ignore it - has produced a series of decisions that has seriously undermined Russia's global role.
For the past two decades, Moscow has viewed its foray into global institutions as a major success. It has increasingly integrated into the global economy. Those achievements, however, now present Putin with a major dilemma.
In the aftermath of the Soviet Union's collapse, Russia signed multiple treaties and joined numerous international organizations, including the Council of Europe, the G7 (which became the G8) and the World Trade Organization.
Whether Russia understood the underlying obligations that accompanied its memberships is unclear. The ink was not yet dry on Russia's accession to the WTO, for example, when Putin demanded that member countries be allowed to introduce protectionist measures during times of global insecurity.
Yet the consensus in Russia was that membership bought Russia a vital seat at the table and increased its influence in world affairs. In addition, the United States and the European Union generally believed that it was better to have Russia inside - as opposed to outside - the international system of global governance even if Russia did not meet all the prerequisites for full membership.
The Ukrainian crisis has exposed the flaws of this thinking - especially for the West. For Putin, however, events in Ukraine have raised a larger question: Should Russia remain a part of the global system?
Russia's ambivalent attitude toward global institutions reflects its history - a single autocratic leader has dominated the country's public institutions for centuries. Indeed, since returning to power in 2012, Putin's agenda has focused on reining in all other Russian political and civic institutions - the legislature, the judiciary, the media, higher education, nongovernmental organizations - and has faced little real opposition in the process. So it is not surprising that Putin entered the Ukrainian crisis with the firm belief that international institutions would not get in his way.
Putin's fundamental misunderstanding of how the post-imperial, post-World War Two international system works has already created serious economic consequences in Russia. Under the recent European Union and U.S. economic sanctions, state-owned Russian banks and Russian companies now have limited access to the international banking system. Moscow is also barred from receiving new loans from the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, a loss of several billions of dollars annually.
Meanwhile, Gazprom, the state-controlled natural gas company, still awaits the verdict of the European Commission's investigation of possible antimonopoly violations. Significant fines usually accompany such inquiries - as Google and Microsoft can attest. The Yukos expropriation bill, which covers Putin's 2004 confiscation of Russia's then largest privately held oil company, also finally came due in July. The Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague and the European Court of Human Rights ruled against the Russian state to the tune of $50 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively.
Meanwhile, Russia's new sanctions on agricultural imports and its consistent abuse of inspections to block fruit, vegetable and meat imports from the European Union, United States, Moldova and Ukraine seem to be ideal fodder for a claim to the WTO Dispute Settlement Body. Poland has already announced its intention to file a WTO complaint, and other countries appear likely to follow.
Russia's ultimate bill for its Ukrainian adventure should not only be measured in money lost but also in terms of opportunities missed. Russia's suspension from the G8 occurred on the eve of its presidency - just as Putin planned to lead the fight against tax evasion and offshore banking. Problems he battles against in Moscow.
Russia would have found a receptive audience among its fellow G8 members, whose nations also suffer from significant capital flight. Now Russia has to address the problem alone at a time when Russian capital flight, for the first six months of 2014 ($75 billion) exceeded the entire amount of 2013.
Russia may not think that it is bound by any alliances. But it turns out that institutions do matter - and Russia cannot easily retreat from the global economy. Indeed, virtually every retaliatory move proposed by Putin has backfired on Russia and left it in a far weaker financial position.
Putin, for example, proposed crippling deposit restrictions on MasterCard and Visa before he had an alternative Russian payment system in place. He thereby threatened the ability of Russians to accept -- and make -- credit card payments. Rumors also have circulated that Russia intends to ban European air carriers from flying over Siberia on Asia routes. These reports immediately sent Aeroflot shares tumbling since it receives upward of $300 million from the fees paid by foreign airlines.
The toll for the recently announced food bans remains uncertain. But there will likely be serious costs as well because Russia will lose both high-end food products from Europe and low-end agricultural products from Ukraine and Moldova. Some Russian commentators insist that alternative suppliers exist and that all logistical obstacles can be easily overcome. They also claim that the sanctions will benefit Russia's domestic food producers and farm-equipment manufacturers. Though for certain products - particularly beef, fish, fruit and vegetables - Russian retailers need to quickly find new foreign partners to fill the gap.
Putin's decree implementing these sanctions conspicuously included a clause calling on the Russian government to take appropriate measures to prevent a sudden increase in food prices. So Putin clearly anticipates some economic costs to these sanctions.
By consistently dismissing the role of institutions - both domestic and international - Putin has backed himself into a corner. His remaining options are either compromise on eastern Ukraine - and suffer the domestic political consequences - or doubling down and intervening directly in Donetsk and Luhansk. The former will rely on international bodies to smooth the process, while the latter will be in open defiance to a large part of the world community.
Putin seems to be leaning toward the second option. Yet that also means that he believes that Russian sovereignty can best be protected by its growing isolation.
Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin tried a similar approach in the 1930s, for he also pursued a policy that isolated the Soviet Union from the world economy. Before the Ukraine crisis, Putin at least seemed to acknowledge the role of globalization. His recent actions suggest a lack of sophistication about global markets and the extent to which Russia has been integrated into the post-World War Two global architecture. The price tag for this miscalculation will be considerable.
Putin is more popular according to Russian public opinion polls than he has ever been during his 14 years in office. He has achieved this success, however, by undermining the very institutions, both domestic and international, that facilitated his consolidation of power. He is more powerful - yet more exposed - than at any time during his presidency.
© (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2014.
9 Comments
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jerseyboy
No one ever accused Putin of being the sharpest knife in the drawer -- just the one who perceives himself the one with the bigget gonads. His super macho image works well at home, but bullies ultimately pay a steep price in a globalized world.
Too bad Fox News isn't smart enough to understand this concept and instead just simply wants to bash Obama for not trying to out macho Putin.
FizzBit
Should Russia remain a part of the petrodollar global system?
There, fixed it for ya.
William Pomeranz's fundamental misunderstanding is that Putin knows how the post-imperial, post-World War Two international system works has already created serious economic consequences in the EU.
Again, fixed it. See below.
Please. Do you even understand the big picture here William? These sanctions are in response to Barrack "four!" Obama's petty sanctions. Greece, Slovakia, The Czech Republic, Germany and Spain are all starting to back peddle on these sanctions. Who won that round of golf?
Russian retailers have found new foreign partners to fill the gap. Fixed.
He is more powerful - and is beginning to expose Washington's desperate attempts to save the petrodollar. Fixed.
The BS coming out of the MSM for the "idiocracy" is hilarious. Unfortunately, the US will stop at nothing to save the petrodollar as it would crumble their money printing, UST's, MIC game.
Mike Whitney says it better:
And finally, before you all start calling me names, I just want to say, all I want is for America (my country) to return to some semblance of logic, honesty and peace, and stop trying to control the world. Their actions now should be raising alarm bells for WW III because they really don't care about the Europeans. I'll leave you with these words spoken by State Department Victoria Nuland on the eve of the US coup in Kiev "fuk the EU!"
Asakaze
Empty article, full of false assumptions. It is not Russia, its poor old Europe who "pays the price" for the Ukrainian mess. US forced the EU, its economic rival, to impose sanctions on Russia. Very dexterious for the US, very stupid for the EU, because Russians served them its own medicine. Result: huge losses (at least 10 billions) for European agricultural sector, big boost for Russian domestic producers. From chaotic post-Soviet economic reforms of 90s Russian farmers could not compete with large Western agrocompanies, but now its another story. In fact, Russian farmers now toast to Mr.Obama and the bunch of hapless EU leaders who gave Russia its best chance to right its food production sphere and re-conquer its food market. And do not forget South America, Mediterranian and Asian countries, more then willing to fill the place EU counties were stupid enough to leave. And it is not just food. Russia is a self-sufficient country, it can produce almost everything. And Mr.Putin is clever enough to understand that. Russia is not isolated, because China, India, Brasil, Turkey and a lot of other countries (apart from US and a dozen of its satellite countries) have no intentions to impose sanctions on Russia. Just wait when all of them switch from US dollars to roubles or other national currency in their trade, particularly in oil and gas. Then we`ll see who is really isolated.
turbotsat
Don't see how US can or did force EU into sanctions it doesn't want. EU doesn't want Russia to eat Ukraine.
bass4funk
@jersey
I think you mean, FOX news understands that Putin is nothing but a punk that wants to bully his neighbors and that NOT everyone thinks he's a golden boy and not drinking the Kool aid like ohhhh....uhhh RT perhaps or ANY anti-US person.
bass4funk
@stranger
That's one.
And he put the country not only is worse economical downward spiral, but he overspent and is still spending, added to the national debt, unemployment still high, in particular for minorities, Blacks especially. We still keep printing more and more money, out of control entitlements. So basically, it's a washout.
You mean, most of the jobs now are registered PART TIME and many people fell from the workforce and gave up altogether, the private sector is a joke, you have many giant corporations leaving the US because we have the highest corporate tax rate in the world. California 7.4%, Nevada 7.7% have horrible unemployment records.
That is falling apart and that is barely holding on and is itself on life support.
of failures, I totally agree. Like I said, Obama's accomplishments are getting OBL and getting that prize from the Norwegians. Good job.
jerseyboy
bass -- no I meant exactly what I said. You don't need to tax your brain cells to explain it for me. But, just for the record, wasn't it that darling of Fox, one G W Bush, who famoulsy said he could "read Putin's soul" or words to that effect, and that he and Putin would be friends, as would our two countries? Guess you'd rather forget that?
kaiyoukougakusei
Not if its real estate bubble pops.