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Recently a story appeared on a reputable network about the radiation at Fukushima exceeding the amount released at Chernobyl.
The Chernobyl/Fukushima comparisons involve elements that are both credible as well as “apple and orange” analogies – and ultimately they are also confusing to people who don’t hold PhDs in nuclear-related sciences – and aren’t experts in epidemiology, thyroidology and a whole array of other fields.
For this reason, we rely on journalists to contact experts and simplify stories for us, as well as present enough data that those of us who know a little bit more than the average joe can use to come up with ideas of our own.
Unfortunately, it has been argued that the disaster in Fukushima can best be envisioned as a book on “How To Manage a Simultaneous Triple Meltdown when all the Redundancies Have Failed.” Even when the crisis began, we were three chapters past the back cover of the final volume of the final page of the text, meaning, we’re dealing with an unwritten book, a lot of guessing – even more second guessing -- and to further complicate matters, information filtered by people with “agendas.” For this reason, in some ways, it doesn’t matter if the data is accurate or not: we simply don’t understand it – and as for the analysis, they are theories based on interpretations of probability.
Take cancer rates. We can compare the situation to Chernobyl but with two caveats.
1) The factors aren’t the same, and 2) No one can quite agree on the numbers on Chernobyl and there are those with an agenda to minimize them, and those with an agenda to bloat them.
We can also rely on other theoretical models that take additional data into account. In reality, it is true. We simply don’t know how many people will develop thyroid cancer and other long-term health problems. In addition, even if it is only .01% of the population -- .01% may not look like a lot -- but of a population of 1 million, .01% is 100 people and .1% is a thousand, 1% is 10,000 people. No matter how many zeros there are to the right of the decimal point, we’re talking about real people. This cannot be downplayed.
But beyond theory and speculation, there are certain principles, which are important – in particular, the accurate reporting of facts and distinction between facts and theory and speculation. Theories for sure are not facts, but claims are.
As an example, if an activist group claims that SPOT RADIATION has been found in a schoolyard, the group needs to identify the exact location in its press releases and media outlets need to report the exact locations. The reason (besides to notify the public to stay the heck away from there) is so the claims can be independently verified and hence made credible. If a claim is made and it can’t be replicated, it lacks credibility, and cannot possibly be acted upon (even politically) by locals.
And there are also other factors.
A mother, for example appeared in a report on TV claiming her child (who lives in Tokyo) was suffering from symptoms that she believed were related to radiation. Anecdotally speaking she said that when her child left Tokyo it went away, but when she came back, the symptoms came back. The report concluded that some scientists believe that the symptoms she was describing are very similar to radiation sickness.
What the report did not mention were a number of vital facts including:
-- Was the child taken to a doctor and tested for radiation exposure or other illness?
-- How many reports of this “mystery sickness” have been reported around Tokyo and what have the hospital findings been?
-- How much of a dose of radiation would be required to result in “acute radiation sickness?"
-- Furthermore, did blood or urine tests conclude that the child received an ample dose, and living in Tokyo, could the child have possibly been exposed to such a high dose?
The report, however, briefly took another direction toward the very end, mentioning that while the effects of radiation were unknown, a known problem was fear and the way it was affecting people.
Theoretically speaking, this vindicated the reporter – however, for the most part, the story appeared suspiciously sensationalistic and also led to the possibility of spreading rumors without fact checking – and it is this type of irresponsible reporting and rumor mongering that can hurt people.
Consider the terrified mother, who may very well be projecting her own somatization onto her daughter, encouraging the child to feel trauma and pain to legitimize the own fear and pain she feels.
Emotional harm to children is not the only fallout of the post 3/11 cloud of fear. Factoring in the direct and indirect costs of economic hardship combined with psychological instability, we can predict a rise in suicides. We’ve already heard stories of elderly, rural folk and farmers taking their life. In the long term, it may very well turn out that suicides will kill far more people than radiation, and mental health issues will cause far more disabilities.
When we add all this up, it can be argued that part of the tragedy in the long run is that fear and its economic fall-out as people avoid both Japan and regional commerce may literally do as many people in as the radiation itself. Japan’s high suicide rate, after all, is a given.
That said, I am by no means suggesting that we should minimalize or under-report the dangers of radiation. That would be denial. Rather, we should also consider how rumors as well as lies and fact distortion can hurt real people. Morally speaking, we should be sensitive to this.
For this reason, I propose that we replace our own fears with responsible decision-making, as well as manifold acts of care, compassion and selflessness.
© Japan Today
39 Comments
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Laguna
Very eloquent report, Eddie.
choiwaruoyaji
This article just seems to repeat what has been said countless times elsewhere, or else merely states the obvious. Doesn't the writer have anything new to add to the issue?
oikawa
I think it's a very important point though, that we are just relying on journalists to do our work for us, but they have their own agendas themselves so it's better, especially in this internet age, to cut to the chase and go directly to the source if you can, i.e. contact the experts directly. The BBC, CNN, etc. know no better than you or I.
What was this supposed to mean though, in about the 5th or 6th paragraph? I don't understand it.
I don't see any mention of "it' before, or what non-reality is supposed to be.
kurisupisu
When children in Fukushima are passing radioactive cesium in urine,highly radioactive hots pots are found in Yokohama and contaminated feed is found in Shimane, the far west of Honshu etc then I think we have the beginnings of a crisis based on fact and not on baseless rumors
One problem of the whole crisis is how the government has acted not to save people from harm but to expose them to it!
One example stands out and that is the children.
Being contaminated as a child will lead to not only a premature death but also one that will be beset by heart disease,cancer and internal organ failure.
Having plans to incinerated debris from Miyagi,Fukushima and Iwate all over the country will expose pretty much all Japanese to this horror.
In time nobody will care about the rural victims of Tohoku since we will be victims ourselves
nath
kurisipisu.
Sorry, but you are way off-base.
And also ignore genetics that can kill you way faster at a younger age with cancer than radiation will ever do(exposure only ups your risk of getting it, but so does a wrong diet, life-style, etc, etc).
Pls, less of fear-mongering and more truly informed posts here.
There is NO guarantee in life and when your ticket is punched it is punched regardless of how healthy or good a life you lived.
Johannes Weber
I think the comparison with Chernobyl (in terms of which one is worse) is way to early. No one knows the long-term consequences of the releases up to now and the accident is not over yet. Neither will it be over once cold shutdown is achieved. Nor when the soil of Fukushima prefecture is decontaminated. The accident will be over if and only if something else happens which exceeds the lingering effects of the accident. Only then we can make a clear cut between Fukushima and something else.
That doesn't mean that all over eastern Japan everything is so bad. If You have background radiation levels of 2-4 microSieverts per day, which is the normal level in Kanto, this is absolutely no cause for concern. If there are abundant radioisotopes in the food chain, then there is. However, the question which activities are high or low in terms of human consumption currently doesn't have any unbiased answers.
I think Zichi and the author are very close to the truth that the victims suffer an extreme stress and trauma, which will have somatic consequences, which might easily exceed the direct consequences of radiation in most places. The stress from the disaster until now cannot be undone, but if the government and TEPCO enact credible measures for the safety and the well-being of the people, the harmful stress can be reduced significantly. Effective measures for decontamination and food safety kill two birds with one stone. This is central for the recovery of (eastern) Japan. The author summarizes this quite well.
Cos
That's right. In Chernobyl and the many other contamination disasters (not nuclear), that appeared that besides the illnesses/conditions due to the contamination, they have a much larger occurrence of psychological distress, at all levels. I was totally mad (now water has passed...) on the Western media coverage as they really made people get crazy. Covering up brings nothing, but there are ways to bring the information to people, especially to the non-specialists, or anybody not used to deal with figures. Media, authorities and everybody that may get involved should really take classes of psychology. And education should emphasize on developing skills of people at given relevant weight to different data. Also, everybody should join the breathing yoga practice, learn to cool down their mind. The sky can fall, I won't stress much. I'll die relaxed as I think that even if the worst happened, adding worries brings no improvement.
hatsoff
Following on from the author, I would like to see less sensationalism in some of the comments on this site too. Some seem to feed off a frenzied sense of alarm. This doesn't suggest that we should swing completely the other way. As the author says, we shouldn't minimalize the dangers, but we do need to be calm and rational.
nath
Sensationalism and fear mongering are possible because the government and TEPCO have supplied little other than inaccuracies, whitewashing and outright lies. When people can't trust the information they're getting from the authorities, it leaves plenty of room for writers to make up stories and sell lots of newspapers.
Related to this are articles comparing Fukushima to Chernobyl. Aside from the the Japanese obsession with making lists ("the 3 most beautiful views" or "the 3 worst nuclear disasters"), is there any point to this?
realist
Im sorry, but if its a choice between believing what TEPCO/the Japanese Government/and the IAEA have to tell us, against what investigative journalists and other Nuclear experts and qualified academics are telling us, I go with the latter group, 100%. Most of us who live in Japan, love the country and its people, and do not have our eyes blinkered by an obsessive and puerile "Japan is a perfect country" mentality, know that truth is not endemic among the rulers of this country. They lied about Fukushima from the start, and they are still lying. They share that with the rulers and former rulers of the USSR/Russia, who also lied about the full extent of Chernobyl. Its all about money and power, and there is no thought nor consideration for ordinary people. Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Nicky Washida
Agree with everything the author says, except for the very last line telling us how we should be living - you are preaching to the converted here Eddie! Or at least I thought you were, until I saw this from kurispisu:
here is a classic example of what you are talking about in the article.
@kurisupisu: where in Yokohama? What were the readings? When were they taken? Because if that info was not provided, then it is nothing more than sensationalism.
NetNinja
Well Eddie here seems to have the pulse of the nation in his report here.
The title of this report is about how the rural and working poor MIGHT be negatively affected by the rumor mill.
They are already affected. They are already lost and/or about to lose more. I for one would rather negative energy turned into pitch. Japan is a country that focuses solely on documents and reports over plaintiff complaints that cannot be documented such as pain, suffering, mental strees, depression and disorders.
Then there are those who have the will and financial resources to fight TEPCO. They will need as much data as they can possible gather. Authorities will, at every turn, seek to control or block data that would substantiate claims made against them for damages.
Eddie claims that there will be far more suicides than death by radiation. I believe this may very well be true BUT what is it like to be driven mad? TEPCO and J-Govt will stall, delay, stack the deck countless paperwork. How many of them will be pushed to their own suicide.
I really should avoid quoting movie lines but sometimes people say the most accurate things. The Dark Knight: The Joker says: Madness, as you know, is a lot like gravity, all it takes is a little push. IMO: This has been a great big push by TEPCO and J'Govt.
Yet still there will be no official report: Cause of death: TEPCO's accident that caused severe mental stress.
In a nutshell, I say report it all. It's an epic mess but report it all and then let TEPCO defend themselves. The people of Fukushima are innocent victims. It's up to TEPCO when it comes to the burden of proof, to disclaim and quell false reports. Until then, I'd rather believe what someone who has suffered has to say and let the deep pockets try to prove them false.
Callme Ish
It is obvious that the government and TEPCO are lying through their teeth.
TEPCO is defunct, a zombie corporation, they should be taken out of the picture as an entity, and of course use their assets and any of their people who want to continue working (or of course, lose all of their future benefits of any sort). 2.5 millions pounds of uranium products are at risk, and the location of the corium is unknown.
Until the government stop lying, and take TEPCO out completely so their extra layer of lies can also be eliminated, the people have nothing to trust, their future, their DNA, are at risk and no one can possible prove otherwise. Lies create fear, but fear is just a simple factor, it will not kill like radiation, although a small of amount of "evacuation through suicide" may occur---telling people to smile, because smiling people don't get affected by radiation is a crime against humanity. And they (Japan gov and its radiation experts) have stated exactly that.
kurisupisu
@It"S ME
Please refute the facts that I have posted.Then tell me I am way off base...........
@Nicky Washida
In Japanese -
http://tomynyo.tumblr.com/day/2011/09/21
A summary in English
http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/09/105600-bqkg-of-radioactive-cesium-from.html
nath
kurisupisu.
Reread my post and understand it, don't just go on the offensive.
I lost 4 family members due to cancer and NONE was even remotely attributed to Chernobyl(remember that one and it hit a large area).
The last one was a hormone related cancer and the persons father also died from cancer. Like I said learn the facts and actual data before posting scare-mongering stuff.
All you can say that people will get cancer, are you even aware of how many forms of X-Cancer are out there and each is due to different causes. Radiation induced cancer is still a very low rate, like I said it ups the risk as do many other factors.
Nuff said.
kurisupisu
@ it"S ME
The topic of this post is concerned with the radiation releases and the effects on the population of Japan not with other types of .It is not an ordinary event and links to other less intense doses of radiation might not be applicable.
However,it is true-there are many causes of cancer.
Nobody can know why an individual becomes sick with cancer, on that I agree. But it would be hubris for any of us to distinctly state why an individual contracts or does not contract cancer.
However,there are proven direct links to it such as smoking,drinking,environment etc
But let me put it to you that radiation such as has been emitted from Fukushima will be a direct cause of cancer.Also, we should bear in mind that large amounts of radiation are still being sent into the environment.That radioactive pollution is being spread all over Japan
Radiation is dangerous. And this is why workers at nuclear plants have exposure limits. When radioactivity is contained then it is a simple matter to avoid it. Once out of containment it no longer is
Japan has had thousands of cases of external and internal contamination so far. Japanese schoolchildren have eaten radioactive beef in school lunches.Supermarkets have sold the same all over Japan too
It is found on vegetables and fruit in Chiba,and Saitama and Ibaraki etc
Do you think that it is scaremongering to suggest a causal link with cancer from the consumption,breathing in of and handling of radioactively contaminated materials?
nath
Yes, I think it is scare-mongering as data from the chernobyl area don't back you up.
There were scientific reports done years ago about the remaining wildlife around chernobyl and NO mutations, increased cancer rate, etc were reported. Heck, the game is being poached now. Hence why the area has been opened to tourists now.
Not saying all is rosy and we need to take care of what we eat to reduce the risks. Like I said we been through Chernobyl and recall the advisories for kids not to play in sand-pits, etc.
Again would love to see a reputable study about radiation exposure being the SOLE cause of cancer.
kurisupisu
The evacuation from Chernobyl was over in a matter of days-it was a different situation.
The radiation from Chernobyl has not decreased - it is still at the same strength.
(It'sME seems confused as to the nature of radioactive contamination and exposures etc........
However, the health related effects of Chernobyl are still being felt in 2011-go and check that out)
Food for human consumption is banned form that area , with good reason.
Tourism is strictly controlled and may only go via controlled and safe routes.
If Chernobyl and its environs were safe then people would be allowed to settle in that area-they are not!
Nicky Washida
@Nicky Washida
In Japanese -
http://tomynyo.tumblr.com/day/2011/09/21
Sorry - quote function not working again.
I checked out the data you referred to Kurispisu. I am not actually disagreeing with you in your opinions about the danger of radioactivity, and I agree with a lot of what you are saying.
But - please correct me if I am wrong because my Japanese isnt perfect - this guy on his blog (because that is what this is) is claiming that they found cesium on his rooftop in Yokohama of 105,000 bq/kg- this is more than double what they found at the highest level in Fukushima city itself (roughly 45,500 bq/kg) only 60 kms from the plant, (see link below:)
http://news.discovery.com/earth/fukushima-radioactive-soil-110705.html
And even this article was highly biased in favour of sensationalism.
So, IF this Yokohama story is true, then that is one hell of a hotspot! It suggests that Yokohama itself vastly exceeds Japanese legal limits and based on actions taken after Chernobyl should be evacuated.
So to be honest - something doesnt seem right about the data somewhere...what are the numbers of 124 and 94 just to the left of Bq/kg. I cant see the column title clearly because when I zoom in on it it goes blurry. But this sounds more plausible, given the data we already know from around Tokyo and other areas, and if this is the real number it hardly qualifies as a "hotspot".
goinggoinggone
There is no need to sensationalize this situation, but to downplay the risks is even more dangerous.
Of course radiation sickness has to be properly diagnosed, and a lot of the reports of massive radiation outside Fukushima seem implausible.
But apart from these extreme examples, the attempts at brainwashing people to believe that there is no risk from nuclear fallout from Fukushima is a crime against humanity.
futurebeast
Here is some information that cannot be refuted. This disaster is releasing far more radiogenic nuclei much faster than was ever released from the Chernobyl meltdown even by the inflated number of sensationalist people with, “an agenda to bloat them.” If anything is circumstantial it is the obfuscating nonsense this author is peddling whose agenda is apparently to keep everyone asking meaningless questions instead of protecting themselves and the ones they love. Prepare for cancer, heart disease and other radiation induced illnesses on an unprecedented level in northern Japan. If you don't like it, pick up your family and leave that death trap.
Nicky Washida
I totally agree that the situation is serious, but I find it hard to take seriously the data of anyone who provides me a link to a blog entitled "黒猫戯言" or in English "Black Cat`s Nonsense". Sorry!
samurairunning
Jesus "Futurebeast" !
I've got two meaningful question for you! Why do you know about such things as the amount of "radiogenic nuclei" being released? And why do you think we who live here don't care about ourselves our community and our lives? But I tell you what for everyone who dies as a direct result of this "meltdown" I'll pay for the transport out of the "death trap" for someone else! What will you do other than be happy in the thought that you called it when all us idiots are dying from radiation and the shame of being wrong!?
"I don't have time for your theatrics! Everybody knows that you're a bad actress" REM
goinggoinggone
So you do not think there will be one cancer in North east Japan, caused by the radiation released into the atmosphere, or in food which is contaminated by so called acceptable levels of radiation, let alone the non acceptable levels in things like that beef fed to school kids? Not one birth defect, like those seen in Chernobyl, caused by the Fukushima melt down?
Could people's risks of cancer and birth defects be reduced if Fukushima produce was not sold as safe? If you dont think so, fine, go ahead and support Fukushima and eat up, but I do not expect to hear whinging from people in the future when the cancers and birth defects start to show up and affect them and their families.
Its not theatrics, its common sense. Is Japanese radiation somehow different from Russian radiation, in so far as it will not cause the same effects here as it caused there?
kurisupisu
@Nicky Washida-having spent hours on this and having seen enough Terra-Ps sound off on the west coast of America and in Japan, I am sure that the news media here is not reporting the facts as they are.
If you are in Kanto then I advise you to buy a geiger counter and check out the levels of radiation in the environment..........
Nicky Washida
Well, I absoluitely completely without a shadow of a doubt agree with you on that one! I am just not convinced that a Yokohama otaku who calls himself "Black Cat" and reports from the roof of his apartment is reporting the facts as they are either!
I would love to get a geiger counter but my understanding is that they are notoriously unreliable. I saw a news report recently where they put 3 separate geiger counters together in the same place and they gave 3 completely different readings, the highest 3 times higher than the lowest! So much as I would love to invest in one, I want to make sure that it is 20,000 well spent. If anyone can recommend a good model, I would be very grateful.
I am in east Tokyo, and while I am not worried about our local area (we have had 3 separate readings taken, 1 official by the ward office and 2 others from friends) and they pretty much coroborate, and the levels are very low. But I AM extremely worried about food - like the carrots I am serving from Chiba tonight that I thought were safe but now I read about the Kashiwa plant - where in Chiba are my carrots from??!
To be honest Kurisupisu, I have been thinking about you today and I think I owe you an apology! I feel like I have been unfairly picking on you with the whole "Black Cat Nonsense" thing - so I am sorry. Ultimately we are all in the same boat and all concerned for the same thing. I am just very frustrated as a Mother because all I want to do is protect my children. But with all the crap being bandied around it is SO difficult. People tell you you are a terrible mother for staying. Others tell you you are paranoid and obsessive when you talk about leaving. But if I leave where do I go? Do I rip my children away from their schools and friends with all the stress and upheavel that entails and start a new life elsewhere based on rumour, when I know my area is relatively safe and I can buy imported foods for the most part from Costco?
I dont care what other people think but I just dont know what to do for the best anymore. What is true and what isnt? The only thing I can do is do my own research, trust my own judgement, and make decisions based on facts. So when people like futurebeast post comments like that above, I cannot take it seriously without knowing the ACTUAL data and the source it has come from. In a situation where even experts have a hidden agenda, I am eternally grateful for people like Johannes Weber (above) who post educated comments as scientists dealing with fact, not emotion and agenda. Although from a scientific background myself in my dim and distant past (which has certainly helped when interpreting the "facts") I am still a Mother and it would take a heart of stone not to let emotion take hold however much I try and stay objective!
I just think the government and TEPCO have handled this so badly, and in doing so have allowed rumour to take hold, which brings me back to Eddies original report. I have a child in elementary school, one in kindergarten and one in daycare and I am in a position on a daily basis to witness the stress the whole situation is causing people. Notwithstanding the rural poor in Tohoku - this is going to stroke out a whole bunch of Tokyo mothers! I`m necking the red wine at the moment, just to keep the old chi flowing smoothly!
Nicky Washida
zichi - thanks for the link, much appreciated.
Darren - yes, thats what I heard too. It is really stressful. Our local supermarket stocks an awful lot of stuff from Tochigi, Chiba, Iberaki, Gunma, Yamagata - all the areas around Fukushima which are technically meant to be "safe" - but are they really? And no way to test them yourelf to be sure.
I try to get imported food as much as possible from Costco or wherever, but it is far away from us and just not practical on a day to day basis.
And then there are things like yoghurt. The kids get through those by the truck load - but where are the ingredients coming from? We already stopped buying one brand because when we called the customer service line to ask they just kept dodging the question and couldnt give us a straight answer. (Basically milk comes from local areas to the factory, the factory is denoted on the pack by a number, and they cant tell us which numbers relate to which factories because that is "classified" information - they could tell us but then theyd have to shoot us!)
Living like this is just exhausting at times but it is the new normal and probably will be for a very long time. We just have to adapt. No other choice.
SquidBert
@Darren
10 percent, so early after the accident seems to me like a huge number.
SquidBert
@zichi,
I am assuming that the numbers you are quoting is for cesium 137? and or 139?
Moderator
Back on topic please.
Nicky Washida
Thank you Darren. And thank you to everyone who posts links/advice/help/suggestions for everyone living through this. JT has ben invaluable since all this started.