On his first day back in office as United States president, Donald Trump gave formal notice of his nation’s exit from the Paris Agreement – a vital global treaty seeking to rein in climate change.
Before signing the order, Trump declared his reasons to an arena of cheering supporters, describing the global agreement as an “unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off”.
Of course, this is not the first time Trump has withdrawn the U.S. from the Paris deal – he did it in 2017, during his first term in office.
On one hand, Trump’s move is a huge blow to efforts to global climate action. The U.S. is the world’s second-biggest emitter of greenhouse gas pollution, after China. The country is crucial to the global effort to curb climate change.
But given Trump’s climate denialism, it’s actually better that the U.S. absent itself from international climate talks while he is in power. That way, the rest of the world can get on with the job without Trump’s corrosive influence.
A quick refresher on the Paris Agreement
Signed by 196 nations in 2015, the Paris Agreement is the first comprehensive global treaty to combat climate change.
Its overall goal is to hold the increase global temperatures to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.
Scientists say meeting the more ambitious 1.5°C target is crucial, because crossing that threshold risks unleashing catastrophic climate change impacts, such as more frequent and severe droughts and heatwaves.
Under the agreement, each nation must make national plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to help reach the global temperature goals. These plans are known as “nationally determined contributions”.
What Trump’s withdrawal means
Under Trump’s last presidency, the U.S. was only out of the Paris deal for four months, due to the time it took for the retreat to take effect. President Joe Biden rejoined the agreement in early 2021.
This time, the U.S. withdrawal will become official more quickly – after a year. Then, the U.S. will join Iran, Libya and Yemen as the only United Nations countries not party to the agreement.
The U.S. can keep participating as a party to the Paris agreement until January 2026. That means it may try to negotiate at the COP30 climate change conference in Brazil this year.
COP30 is a big deal. It is when each country is due to present its new nationally determined contributions. The U.S. withdrawal means it is unlikely to bring a new contribution to the meeting – if it attends at all.
Should the U.S. show up, its presence would potentially destabilize negotiations. That’s why removing Trump-backed negotiators from the climate talks going forward is a good outcome.
If the U.S. stayed in the tent under Trump, its negotiators could, for example, agitate to weaken any deals struck at future COP meetings. We saw such tactics from Saudi Arabia at COP29 in Baku. The oil state repeatedly disrupted the talks and in one instance, sought to alter important text in the agreement without full consultation.
With the U.S. out of the way, the other parties to the Paris agreement have a better chance of progressing climate negotiations.
At this stage, it doesn’t appear other countries are preparing to follow Trump out the door. This is despite controversy at the COP29 talks when Argentinian president Javier Milei ordered his negotiators to withdraw only a few days in. Milei had previously described the climate emergency as a “socialist lie”.
At this stage, Trump has not withdrawn from the Paris Agreement’s parent convention, the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. So after it withdraws from the Paris deal, the U.S. can still attend COP meetings, but only as an observer.
Onwards and upwards
Of course, there are downsides to the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris deal.
Leaving the Paris agreement means the U.S. is no longer required to provide annual updates on its greenhouse gas emissions. This lack of transparency makes it harder to determine how the world is tracking on emissions reduction overall.
Under the Biden administration, the US contributed funding to help developing nations adopt clean energy and cope with climate change (albeit delivering less than it promised). Trump is expected to slash this funding. That will leave vulnerable nation states in an even more precarious position.
While the U.S. was technically only out of the Paris deal for a short period last time, the process was destabilizing. It weakened what was an unprecedented show of international solidarity and sent a damaging message about the importance of climate action.
Trump’s latest withdrawal is a similar blow to morale. It’s particularly galling for Americans fighting for climate action, and those struggling with its devastating effects – most recently, the unthinkable fires in Los Angeles.
But Trump’s withdrawal can easily be reversed by a new U.S. president. And we can expect other parties to Paris, such as China and the European Union, to continue to play a leadership role, and others to fill the vacuum.
What’s more, as others have noted, Trump cannot derail global climate action. Investment in clean energy is now greater than in fossil fuels. When Trump last pulled out of Paris, many U.S. state and local governments pressed ahead with climate policy; we can expect the same this time around.
And the vast majority of the rest of the world is still pursuing emissions reduction efforts.
So overall, the US exit from Paris is probably the best of a bunch of bad options. It mutes Trump’s capacity to destabilize international climate action, allowing others to step into the breach.
Rebekkah Markey-Towler is a PhD Candidate, Melbourne Law School, and Research fellow, Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of Melbourne.
The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts.
- External Link
- https://theconversation.com/trump-has-withdrawn-the-us-from-the-paris-agreement-heres-why-thats-not-such-a-bad-thing-248109
12 Comments
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Zaphod
There is nothing "vital" about this elitist power grab. Any country that wants spend money on windmills and Chinese solar panels in the believ that would change the climate is free to do so, without taking orders from UN bureaucrats.
Bret T
ZaphodToday 11:39 am JST
There is nothing "vital" about this elitist power grab. Any country that wants spend money on windmills and Chinese solar panels in the believe that would change the climate is free to do so, without taking orders from UN bureaucrats.
or getting money form the US!
I agree. What's stopping any other country from pursuing GHG reduction? Only US tax money.
rainyday
With Trump withdrawing the US from pretty much the entire international system - on trade, health, the environment, security, etc - the rest of the world is simply going to re-arrange their affairs so as to not include the US. This will mean a world in which American rivals have way more sway and a new system will emerge that is mainly shaped by them to exclude US interests. Threats from Trump to tariff everyone or invade Panama (or whoever) are just going to accelerate this.
The US declaring war on the system it created and targeting its closest allies as if they were its worst enemies is a sure sign that decadence has fully detached its government from reality. I have no idea how fast the collapse of US hegemony will happen, but its certainly been accellerated over the past few days.
Peter14
Trump is a true imbecile. But the American public voted him back, (seemingly forgetting he was a total catastrophe) the worst US president ever. The number of people who voted him back was less than those who voted him out four years earlier.
Now the people pay a heavy toll in America. Those most vulnerable are being hit hardest and the rich once again get a free ride and tax breaks.
So many people inside and outside of America are now shaking their heads and saying "I told you so". Trump is destroying the fabric of life in America as he tries to remake it.
Trump treats everything and everyone like a business and he has no understanding of diplomacy or right and wrong.
Every day brings a new Trump disaster. Its going to be long 4 years, and if he gets his way he will take 4 more after that. Assuming he lives into his mid eighties. A doddering old fool and convicted felon is the best leader the US can come up with? Not even Hollywood would make a film that outlandish.
Come on America, your much better than this. Trump is beneath you all and should be relaxing in jail. Find a real leader in that 350 million population. There must be some somewhere.
bass4funk
To the left, perhaps...
If he had been the worst President ever, he would have never been voted in to serve a second term, also Blacks and Latinos are the ones that pulled him over the finish line in the same way Whites did for Trump, a complete reversal.
Well, I love the rich because the rich are the ones that provide jobs and that help me keep a roof over my head and my belly full, so I would never demonize the rich, never saw a poor person offer anyone a job or employment, but yes, for 4 years we paid a hefty price.
I don't know a single American who cares what the outside world thinks of us, haters gonna hate, not my problem, I am just happy we have an AMERICAN FIRST President.
Yes, America is basically the largest business in the world, the man is not a politician and that is why it is so refreshing to have someone in Washington who is not a failed lying career politician, we tried it for decades and the corruption seems to be getting worse, that's why so many of us decided to vote for the Orange Convict.
For the left, absolutely!
Yes, it will be a long 4 years and he will get his way, he has a mandate and he will implement it, so that is really exciting, his health is fine, just finished his last physical, and Doctors gave him a clean bill of health, maybe it's the KFC...
We absolutely did better, Kamala was a resounding NO and people were just happy to see Biden and their entourage leave, it is so peaceful, now. Again, we tried it with these fake politicians and decided, that America needs someone and something better, a strong leader and more importantly, not a politician, he is standing at 51% as of today. Good times ahead.
mikeylikesit
The Paris Agreement was always a disaster. Kneecapping the economies that are already the most energy efficient, while offshoring production to China, which continues to build coal plants at a breakneck pace, is useless nonsense. The West is buying windmills, batteries, and solar cells made with coal.
China is in pace to produce more carbon dioxide than all of Europe and North America combined. Any agreement that does not put equal limits on China is pointless.
iknowall
Another great achievement by Trump.
1glenn
The world's second biggest emitter of greenhouse gases being led by a climate change denier. What could go wrong.
Pukey2
The world's biggest in terms of per capita. And it's not even the world's biggest manufacturer of goods. And emissions from its military alone would rival that of the average developed country.
To be honest, it makes no difference who the potus is. The only difference is that Trump says what's on his mind. With others, it's just two-face baloney. What happened to Build Back Better??!!!
virusrex
What scientific arguments do you have against the scientific consensus about climate change? whiteout them your claim can be ignored as false since it has been proved beyond any rational doubt the problem is extremely serious and actions are vital to ensure control of the disaster.
Jimizo
Is that the bad elites rather than the good ones?
I think those raging against elites should be clearer about which one they are taking about.
Great Bird
Elitist power grab?
There is no elitist power grab, the elites, big oil and their lackeys have held the power for decades.
See some of the non-violent "Just stop Oil" protesters in the UK getting longer prison sentences than the good rioting guys throwing stuff at people in asylum centers.
The only elitist power grab going on might be Thiel with his boy Vance being one little death away from the most powerful position in the world. For the rest, power is firmly in the hand of the oily guys.