World emerging from deep slump but can it last?


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ill just keep spending

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It can last if USA/EU/Japan sells properties/land/companies and exports more.

The USA/Bernanke need to plan, to get rid of its loans/deficits of USD 9000 billion slowly/steadily via many dynamic financial/economic solution idea-projects.

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no, its a dead-cat bounce...real recovery is a year away

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Nope, it's 'recovery' funded by excessive borrowing, so not a recovery at all, just more air in the bubble.

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Wrong ! Japan has yet to deal with it's domestic spending issues which is killing the opportunity for any real growth. Coupled with extremely overpriced oil prices, I say brace yourself for one wicked October... the DOW around 7,000 is my best guess.

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The media is loaded with these "economists" who read statistics and with every slightest increase in any figure start talking about "recovery" and "bottom out". The current "improvements" have been forced by government actions all over the world and eventually the money will run out for that.

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U.S. with GDP of $14.2 trillion is more than three times the Japanese economy of $4.3 trillion and China at $4.2 trillion. U.S. has a major problems with high unemployment rate, currently at above 10 percent. In California, where many hi-tech companies are located, by itself is the 8th largest economy in the world, is at almost 12 percent rate. It's very difficult to see much consumer confidence until unemployment is lowered to around 8-9 percent rate. The consumers are just not spending most big ticket item other than the recent clunker rebate. Housing will still take 1 to 2 years at best to rebound and maybe next problems will be commerical real estate. Currently, majority of the home sales are still short or foreclosure sale, but it's looking alot better than the second quarter. The U.S. dow stock market, which is currently at 9500 level, shows stability and sees 3-6 months ahead with some signs of confidence from investors, due to recent profit from companies.

Japan exports has slumped and the disruption of the credit markets also hit the availability of trade credit, which is drying up. Still, Japanese stocks still look cheap compare to major market in the world.

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Sadly no. Nobody can test themselves with a little math let alone understand the world around them.

Although the recession by dropping oil demand has helped delay Peak Oil again, the same effect will occur when the "recovery" hits natural resource limits again. I expect another recession, deeper this time in 2011 or 2012. This is only the first of many as we finally downscale our worldwide societies to understand resource limits. By then globalization will be over and we can reinvigorate our local markets and communities, with the remains of globalization for items that can't be made locally only.

A final mental collective bubble will burst when we realize we had it pretty good, but squandered it. (checkout

To understand and to move forward with clarity we will need a basic math education, regardless of PeakOil or not. Please view: "Arithmetic Population and Energy" Tell me your math is better than this? Whatever we face, when ever it is, we have to be educated.

Don't be afraid. The math here isn't hard, the good Dr explains it with a lot of humour and it will help burst that bubble of ignorance when you compare its logic to other things.

Don't fear change. It'll be fun. Everything will be on sale, everything must go haha. The ensuing years may be difficult but it won't last and in the end it'll work out. We'll learn a clearer understanding of how the world works and that we live on an earth, not a stock market.

Sources :

Sources : "Arithmetic Population and Energy"

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Recoveries are always for the employers and the rich only.

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Most economists and analysts seem to agree

The return of the lemmings....these were the same people who contributed to the decline by their inability to/biased analysis...who trusts these over paid, under skilled morons?

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Other economists are guardedly optimistic. And Lawrence Summers, the top White House economic adviser, predicts “a substantial return to normalcy” in the coming months.

The reason why FRB has decided to suspend purchasing of the U.S. government bonds and buy 2.5 trillion dollars worth of RMBS(Residential mortgage-backed securities)and corporate bonds by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae is not because they are in a different place than before with substantial return to normalcy within sight but because investors are beginning to sell them at a sacrifice. They realized the Ponzi scheme the U.S. has been doing to collect money from all over the world. No signs to verify a return to normalcy, but rather desperate stopgap measures for what has to break down substantially on the world level.

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How can you talk about recovery when future generations have been saddled with the most astronomical debt a single nation has ever incurred, jeopardizing the livelihood of billions of people.

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Since WWII, America has always been borrowing and borrowing. Even in good times, they're still borrowing, or at least not borrowing but also not paying back its creditors - instead using the extra money for other things like in the form of tax cuts to taxpayers. Good for taxpayers, but ultimately, the creditors won't get their money back (save maybe for interest), and that debt and interest are still there to be passed on to succeeding generations.

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Good news: the recession is over. Bad news: the depression is starting.

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It's suppose to be a W recession, I am waiting/looking forward to the next part after the economy stabilizes, high interest rates. Secure investments with good rates of returns, what more could a person ask for.

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jobless recoveries

An oxymoronic statement. Can it last? No. The fundamentals are not there. The market psychology is not there and the jobs lost this time around are systemic losses. Government induced stimulus measures do not a recovery make.

the sense of free-fall, of vertical decline, has been contained... Most economists and analysts seem to agree.

Market psychology does not take its direction from "most economists" who are not looking at the damage done to credit markets and credit scores that will take years to repair. With no business expansion, there will be no jobs. with no jobs, no recovery. Bank failures and vertical free fall to the market can return with a vengeance at any time as it did after the 1929 crash. Cancer in the housing market and banking is not going away anytime soon. In some places there is a 10 year inventory of unsold homes. Generating a REAL money supply mop to soak up this mess will take as many years as it took to create the bubble, maybe more. Relatively cheap oil will help for a while, but the short leash of peak oil will snap growth back south as prices climb.

Right on sf2k.

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Ever since the Fed stopped printing the M3 it has become harder to tell. I don't see a recovery -I see a mad grab for hard assets with paper that is quickly becoming worthless.

I see a ton of inflation, maybe 30-50% in American money in the last few years (but then again no M3!). If you need a car or house (and have a stable income) I say buy it and use the inflation to your advantage (loans). Japan/UK are similiar with their money "printing" = you almost need to use something else to see the inflation (commodities, food prices etc).

Bottom line: More Federal debt = more slaves to the debt. Inflation lowers the value of the debt, but they are fooling you in saving it's 3% or even negative and this keeps salaries down =It will hurt when the adjustment comes. Buy land (hard assets) and become a farmer = at least then you won't be hungry.

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I see a ton of inflation, maybe 30-50% in American money in the last few years

Correction, Inflation rate in the U.S. is around 2-3 percent annually since 2000. Actually from last year to 2009, there is hardly any change. Most retail prices remain unchanged. There is a difference between asset value that were lost in homes and stock market, which can be 30-50 percent depreciation, depending on where you are located and what type of investment you made. One major problem in U.S. is over $9 trillion dollars in debt.

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