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Do you think the yen is a safe-haven currency during a global crisis?

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The yen? A safe haven? REALLY?

5 ( +5 / -0 )

Yes for a while, but as the demographic cliff progresses the point of debt overload will cause a collapse. It will happen in all industrialized and aging countries including China. There will probably be a dramatic reset so be merry and spend your hard earned money in time to enjoy it. Debtors will actually come out ahead.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

The yen has traditionally shown itself to be a safe haven during crises.

The question is more, are the reasons for the yen traditionally being a safe haven, still valid going forward...

How long is Japan’s trade balance going to remain in the black, and how long will the aging Japanese populace continue to be net investors versus the world?

3 ( +3 / -0 )

It won't happen until it happens. Expect a sudden unraveling. The developed countries are entering demographic oblivion under current pension expectations.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

The yen has traditionally shown itself to be a safe haven during crises.

Yes, but we haven't yet faced a global currency crisis of the kind Reckless is talking about. That's why people are buying gold. It's hard to say where the yen will come out when the reset happens, since the debt here is almost all domestic. When all is said and done, it might come out better than the USD. But there will be that nasty period in between where nothing is really safe. Gold can be heavily taxed, with private sales being labelled as money laundering, real estate can be heavily taxed as well. With governments growing and economies shrinking...

2 ( +3 / -1 )

no currency is safe in a global crisis.

The yen has traditionally shown itself to be a safe haven during crises.

If you want a relatively more stable currency, go for gold and silver.

Gold and silver are commodities, not currencies.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

@fx: Your first question is what we would all like to know. My money is split weighing on the dollar more heavily than Yen, so I receive both currencies. But I live here so prefer a strong dollar. This country is aging so fast. America is not as it allows for immigrants to come in and should and will allow for more after Trump is gone.

I am in the so called aged group but I spend a lot because I am debt free with no mortgage. I have always wondered why people run to the Yen. Perplexing. Even if you buy a ton of it, you can't invest it and get any return.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

no currency is safe in a global crisis. If you want a relatively more stable currency, go for gold and silver. If you have useful skills (repair, health, etc.) and/ or have products that you can trade, then barter.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

I think the yen gets bought because of historical reasons, which comes down to its positive current account balance.

I’m middle aged, and by the time I need my savings I’m doubtful that Japan’s current account balance will still be positive. The population will be smaller and more aged for sure. So I personally don’t view the yen as a safe haven but can’t say the antics of other authorities around the world inspire me with confidence either.

At the end of the day I want to own productive (foreign) stocks, and some shiny gold!

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Yes for a while, but as the demographic cliff progresses the point of debt overload will cause a collapse.

I'm not an economics guy, so I have no idea if this will someday become true or not. But people have been saying it for at least 20 years now, and it still hasn't happened.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

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