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How bad do you think the tension on the Korean Peninsula is going to get?

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Some experts are saying that SK is just looking for an excuse for a military strike against NK because of their lack of retaliation over the Cheonan and Yeongpyong incidents. If this is the case, it could turn into an all-out war.

I'll have to wait and see if any good comes of Gov. Richardson's trip to Pyongyang before speculating on how bad the tensions will get.

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While it's easy to tell people that they shouldn't wish for war, what exactly was North Korea's killing South Korean civilians? That wasn't war right? That's a provocation? I can understand the anger and frustration that South Koreans feel. Too bad China and Russia can't. Or simply don't care.

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One thing to prepare for war, another thing to sit back home behind the keyboard wishing/pushing for a war that will be fought by others.

I don't think Sk wants a war but they might have to fight one soon. And it will be a war with worldwide impact and consequences.

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as they say it takes two to tango! It seems to me that to use life fire drills in a disputed area is quite insensitive and a provocation. Russia and China's objection seems to be the best comment yet on the situation. the US's response is absurd and in line with their strategy so far, think Vietnam, panama, iraq, Afghanistan etc., always ready fir war! I don't think N Korea is joking either. How come these grown up man still play boy games of fighting and bullying? When will all this stop? and when can we live in peace?

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I predict an "Autonomous Chinese Region of Northern Korea" within five years, ruled from Beijing. Which should certainly give the South, the Japanese and the Yanks something to think about.

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MicahDLM at 10:11 AM JST - 20th December as they say it takes two to tango! It seems to me that to use life fire >drills in a disputed area is quite insensitive and a provocation.

How is firing into the sea, whether disputed or not a provocation? Firing artillery at an inhabited South Korean island and killing people is what's called a provocation.

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Zenny11 at 09:21 AM JST - 20th December One thing to prepare for war, another thing to sit back home behind the >keyboard wishing/pushing for a war that will be fought by others.

Most government officials responsible for wars are in that very same position.

I don't think Sk wants a war but they might have to fight one soon. And >it will be a war with worldwide impact and consequences.

Yes SK doesn't want a war, it conducts drills as a deterrence to war. However it now appears that the deterrence isn't working. Firing on an inhabited island amd killing people is "wanting war". It is very possible that SK may retaliate in such a way that NK's ability to keep killing SKoreans will be eliminated but at the same time will not result in a total "war with worldwide impact amd consequemces".

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I think the consequences will be wider reaching than people expect right now. Not saying everybody gets involved in the war, there are also economics, etc to consider.

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War is entirely possible - both sides seem to be spoiling for a fight. SK is tired of NK's ongoing petulance.

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NK will never be autonomous Region of China - Koreans too proud. Far more likely is war, NK getting beaten and re-unification (which will ruin Korean economy for next 10 or more years).

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that is very true! the consequences would be immense! America might just go down over a war like that! For us here in Japan that would be a scRy situation, don't really want to think about this! especially at a time like this Christmas being a few days away, this is supposed to be a celebration of "Peace"?

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Zenny11 at 11:34 AM JST - 20th December I think the consequences will be wider reaching than people expect right >now. Not saying everybody gets involved in the war, there are also >economics, etc to consider.

OK. Let's say everyone else stays out. Nobody, the US, China, Russia, Japan wants a total war. SK do their drills and NK attacks again killing SKoreans. SK retaliates in a big way sweeping a 100km zone north of the borderline clear of all NK military assets, artillery, missle launchers everything ina massive aerial attack. But no invasion is conducted, pyongyang is untouched. Now, is China going to let NKorea start a total war with SKorea? Or will China see that the status quo has been maintained with NKorea unable to give anymore headaches for China to be concerned about? Under such a scenario I don't see anyone suffering economically either.

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SK produces a lot of the electronic, etc goods of the world if they get involved in a war it will after their economy and their ability to support Samsung, LG, etc products.

Your idea was correct in the last century when economies were more isolated, today everything is global and thus effects will be felt worldwide.

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NK will never be autonomous Region of China - Koreans too proud.

You reckon? Have a look at these two quotations from the Asahi Shimbun last week:

"North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and Chinese president Hu Jintao agreed in August that China will lead the development of the North Korean port of Rajin... 'North Korean leader Kim gave a positive answer to President Hu's suggestion to leave the development of Rajin Port in China's hands when Kim made his second visit to China this year,' a Chinese source said."

"China is set to lease two islands from North Korea on the Yalu River bordering the two countries to set up free trade zones and tourist facilities, Chinese sources said... China has acquired the right to use the land for 50 years after it paid Pyongyang the equivalent of several billions of yen...."

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I'm quite sure there will be a war because that's what NK and China seems to be spoiling for. However the outcome of such is far from uncertain If nukes get involved! God help us all! China has everything to loose in terms of world trade, NK has nothing to loose apart from it's people they care nothing about! Will common sense prevail? I doubt it. A war here is inevitable unless steps are taken by China to prevent it.

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War between N.Korea and USA backed S.Korea Japan alliance within nezt year. Will not last long. Then Japan and S.Korea will pay for the development of the North, while China and USA rush in and make a killing in the new free market.

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Today PRK is now a different PRK of the 50s, they are now nuclear armed.

Today PRC is now a different PRC of the 50s, Mao is no longer around to instil crazy ideology.

Russia, PRC and Japan will definitely not want to be involved in Korea's penisular war.

All (including US) are worried that PRK may use nuclear arm and may suck them into this nuclear war which seems highly probable.

US and ROK have never fought in a nuclear war before.

ROK is dead worried about this loose-end neighbour using nuclear weapons and on the other hand, the democratically elected leaders of ROK can not sit still without venting their anger at PRK's shelling for fear that they will lose the future elections.

From the past history, US was gutless and dared not go into full direct conflict with the Soviet for fear of Soviet's nuclear weapons.

US is aware of PRK's nuclear asenals but without nuclear warhead capable long range misiles, nuclear lauched capable submarines and long range bombers, US has, by and large, hoped to confine this potential nuclear war within Korea's penisular. Japan cannot but worry that PRK may launch nuclear warhead mid range missiles at them.

If nuclear is unleased by the PRK, PRK and ROK will be totally wiped out.

PRC and Russia will again take the North Penisular and US and Japan will take the South. Deja vu, sound familar.

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It is very possible that SK may retaliate in such a way that NK's ability to keep killing SKoreans will be eliminated but at the same time will not result in a total "war with worldwide impact amd consequemces". ............................

This is pure wishful thinking, a " clean " war that'll be over in weeks( if not days ). As we type here, there are thousands of artillery pieces ranged at Seoul. Even if you managed to knock out 50 % , the rest will still destroy Seoul. By the way, we haven't taken into consideration possible nukes . You just don't know what a desperado will do when the end is near.

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They'll exert extreme effort towards making it as bad as they possibly can... without anything actually happening in the end.

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One day, with all those provocations from both sides, someone's patience will be over and it will bang.

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LATEST: North Korea said it would not react to military drills staged by the South near their disputed border and, easing tension further, CNN reported that Pyongyang had agreed to the return of nuclear inspectors.

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Zenny11 at 12:44 PM JST - 20th December SK produces a lot of the electronic, etc goods of the world if they get >involved in a war it will after their economy and their ability to >support Samsung, LG, etc products.

AS gfar as I am aware SKOrea does not export anything to the world exclusively. If the Samsungs and LGs are set back, the world till has all gthe electronics it wants from Japan, Southeast Asia, and dare I say it...China.

oberst at 02:32 PM JST - 20th December This is pure wishful thinking, a " clean " war that'll be over in weeks( >if not days ).

Actually days if not hours.

As we type here, there are thousands of artillery pieces ranged at >Seoul. Even if you managed to knock out 50 % ,

No the idea is take out 99%.

By the way, we haven't taken into consideration possible nukes . You >just don't know what a desperado will do when the end is near.

Sure I have.You think China is going to let NKorea use nukes? In an attack that leaves Pyongyang anmd the Kim regime untouched?

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South Korea will be the most relieved to know NK is backing down....its a matter of political survival for politicians in SK to put on a hard line show on against NK but in reality it will never be an option for them to have Seoul reduced to rubble if it could have been prevented by any means...attacking NK , a war with NK, is suicide for Seoul.

so..NK get their food and everyone saves face!

my very first posting on this topic a few weeks back suggested dropping food supplies and wishing them all a merry christmas....but seems far too many war mongers have to chew out their egos first....before reaching the same conclusion....Gee, we humans must be learning something, 50 years ago 100s of 1000s of young men had to die before taking a peaceful option

how do you say merry christmas in nth korean???

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It'd be wise if South Korea back off from its position. NK could be enjoying the support from China,Russia and Iran.Who knows.It's a dangerous war game than we all think.At last,NO MORE BLOODSHED!

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Three years ago, I told someone that I expect war with NK within a 10 years. Well, I am still convinced because Koreans in general are the most nationalistic nation in Asia (North and South). Today, SK start a kind of show of force to the north, but if there is a serious retaliation from NK)at this provocation, Mrs Clinton have to come to help. A mix of nationalism and stuborn arrogant behavior will lead to war, just as in ex-Yougoslavia. Before there was hope(even a train!) thanks to a good President in SK with his "sunshine policy". This President is going for a "sunset policy" for his country. Regime change is highly recommended on both sides!

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NK will bluff and posture their way into extinction

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@tokyocrawler "how do you say merry christmas in nth korean???" who cares, NK doesn't give a fk about christmas

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I don't know how bad the tension on the Korean peninsula is going to be, but i DO know that NONE of us here should wish a war in this region. As someone wisely said, this North Korea is not the '50s North Korea. They have nuclear weapons and they are willing to use them. It's not Vietnam, Afghanistan or Iraq. Rather, its a Cold War crisis coming back to life... People should not joke about it or wish things that might cause a new chaos in the region.

Guys, this is not a Risk board game. I truly hope that both Pyongyang and S. Korea/U.S.A will come to a bilateral agreement. I also hope that China will stop supporting N. Korea's insane policy.

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Antonios_M at 08:15 AM JST - 21st December I don't know how bad the tension on the Korean peninsula is going to be, >but i DO know that NONE of us here should wish a war in this region.

Nobody anywhere is wishing for war. However te South Korean people are fd up with giving and giving and getting killed in return. Can you blame them? A military strike that defangs the rabid dogf need not necessarily become a toral "war" particularly since all perties, including China and Russia don't want one.

As someone wisely said, this North Korea is not the '50s North Korea. >They have nuclear weapons and they are willing to use them.

How do you know this? I don't think North Korea can ever use nuclear weapons without China's approval.

It's not Vietnam, Afghanistan or Iraq. Rather, its a Cold War crisis >coming back to life... People should not joke about it or wish things >that might cause a new chaos in the region.

No it's not the cold war because today despite China and Russia being North Korea's "allies" they aren't going to throw their weight into supporting the Kim regime if it wants to start a war.

Guys, this is not a Risk board game. I truly hope that both Pyongyang >and S. Korea/U.S.A will come to a bilateral agreement. I also hope that >China will stop supporting N. Korea's insane policy.

If there is a bilateral or even a mutilateral agreement that will meet South Korea's satisfaction that it will ensure North Korea will never again kill more South Koreans I'm sure they'd be all ears.

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Both sides want to keep the status quo. Doubt it will end in a war but NK will probably collapse from the inside in the next 10-50 years. Most dynasties don't do so well by the time a grandchild gets in power.

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It will be WWIII, no doubt about it.

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I don't see anything happening. I see this game as a way govermnets justify spending on military budget. To do that though, its needed that the common folk believe a war could break-out.

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I predict an "Autonomous Chinese Region of Northern Korea" within five years, ruled from Beijing. Which should certainly give the South, the Japanese and the Yanks something to think about.

kyushujoe,

man that will NEVER happen, China has way way way too many problems(and potential problems) domestically that there is no way they wud want the above. Just because China wants to set up trade on a couple islands in a river(hint they just want to better control trade that is ALREADY been happening for yrs) & invest in a port..........both of these are straight up biz deals, no way China wud want to have to run NK that wud be a waste for them

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Nothing will happen. In my country, they say barking dog doesn't bite.

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This one already has bitten.

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i think this conflict shows how stupid USA, south Korea and North Korea are.

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Nobody anywhere is wishing for war.

Ah, Ossan, don't be so sure about that. I guarantee you there are many people in high positions wishing or secretly thinking "ok, lets get rid of the lunatics in North Korea and enjoy a new free market in the region". Most of their arguments are exactly the ones you mentioned. North Korea is not really willing to use nukes, it's actually China behind the scenes, S. Koreans are willing to have their revenge and get rid of the threat, etc etc.

Well, i highly doubt that nowadays China is behind the scenes. As you said, China has nothing to win from supporting a lunatic in the region that wants to be called "Great Leader". And believe me, since i have many S. Korean friends...not all of them wish an invasion or even a military strike. As for the cost for U.S.A to attempt something like that...huge!

The North Korean issue should have been solved around the '90s instead of having unnecessary actions like the 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia. Now, i am afraid that the thing is more complicated and risky. As someone proposed, the best solution would be to wait 10-30 years and North Korea will collapse from the inside.

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Very bad.

As long as North and South Korea are not re-united, they will continue to fight.

Unfortunately, the history of the Korean Peninsula shows that there has always been a North-South divide on the Peninsula.

In addition, today, South Korea has progressed tremendously, while North Korea is lagging behind very badly.

Hence, re-uniting the two Koreas will be extremely difficult.

And, this being the age of nuclear technology, the threat of nuclear weapons being used is always present...

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