The Japanese government is considering extending the COVID-19 state of emergency covering Tokyo, Osaka and seven other areas beyond the current deadline of May 31 to around June 20. Do you think that will make a difference to the number of infections?

no

It won't reduce infections but won't cause an explosion. Because the moment the SoE is lifted, there will be massive nomikais, end to all work from home programs from most companies, and end to all precautions. The SoEs is probably the only thing that is preventing 100+ person company sponsored nomikais atm.

If, and when, they don't close

a) deparment stores and any other non-essential stores

b) most schools

c) most kindergartens

or really, fundamentally and in practice encourage, promote and even enforce

d) remote working and studying

e) proper social distancing everywhere and all the time (that means also you, TV variety shows, and obasans at the suupaa)

and increase

f) trains / train cars / services

g) wide scale testing

...the answer is no. It's just a cosmetic label, a sticker the LDP members and Suga can stick to their laptops. "We did this though, we "tried" ". However, I hope the SoE at least keeps the situation roughly the same; finishing it now would send the message that the situation would be somehow better or even ok, when it's far from it.

Of course it wont.

Because the commuter trains are still packed every morning.

Offices are full of Oyajis pretending everything is fine, with masks on their chin or under their nose as a kind of magic talisman.

Commuter trains are packed again in the evening.

And the government refuses to carry out testing and vaccination on the scale necessary.

The only thing that will affect the number of reported infections is the apparatchik who controls the figures released daily. Nothing can stand in the way of the Olympic white elephant.

I believe it will have at least some impact. How much? I do not know.

The SOE in 2020 seemed to be really effective ini slowing down the cases however it encompassed all of Japan. As easy and convenient as it is to travel between prefectures here with all of the public transit options I think a nationwide SOE is appropriate.

Seems to me that the numbers are not significantly impacted by the SOE. People are still going out and doing as much as they can. The one clear think the SOE does is cause finical hardship for small business and their workers. Near my home I have watched numerous businesses close for good. It's a shame that the business owners and their employees are paying the price for the governments inability to act. There are better ways to do things.

It depends on what cycle they set the PCR test at. Anything above 35 and they will find anything they want to.

It depends on what cycle they set the PCR test at. Anything above 35 and they will find anything they want to.

This is false information already debunked multiple times. Cycle number is only the most primitive way to control for specificity and there are many other multiple ways to keep the specificity high no matter how many cycles are used. In Japan the rate of specificity is over 99.9%, which means one false positive for every thousand tests at much.

As some already have said, the effect will be significantly rising numbers afterwards.

No. But the real question should be whether an extension will materially affect the number of infected people who suffer severe consequences. But SOE or similar are now taken to be the default policy reaction and so will conrinue to be imposed, whatever the empirical evidence as to their effectiveness is showing.

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”. 

Albert Einstein.

Probably it was never translated into Japanese.

Superficially, yes.

If the government enacts stricter measures to discourage the movement of people, then yes, I think it might. Considering that there are a lot of people going to and from their place of work and study on a daily basis, along with their essential and recreation-related movements, extending the SOE without any worthy restrictions and increased testing would be just for show. I also agree with blahblah222 on the lifting of the SOE causing revenge parties after restrictions are lifted, it's human nature. Even the well disciplined Japanese are not immune to this. If Japan can't vaccinate its people right away, then its next best (and most unpopular) option is to at least curb the infections.