What do you think would happen to the Okinawan economy if all U.S. military personnel left?

The economic fallout would be immediate. Besides the thousands that work on US bases the govt would also halt base land leases and off base housing would dry up. Not to mention the hundreds of associated businesses that rely on the bases. Mitigation by the mainland govt would probably be well-intended but fall short of the mark. Does Okinawa really need any additional shopping mall complexes that are controlled by mainland companies? No. Then there is the political fallout. China would be quick to fill in any military vacuum. This would put Taiwan in immediate danger and possibly draw Japan into a war. There are ways to reduce the footprint w/o throwing the baby out with the dishwater.

Looking at the Phillippines and the Clark Air Force and Subic Bay closures, the economy would flounder - like mentioned above by tango6467.

It'd take decades for the economy to strengthen and stabilize. Hotel resorts, tourism, and non-military industries take a lot of time to set up, employ and make a profit.

I would guess a twenty to thirty year depression in the area at least if it were to bounce back at all.

Japan need to be free from the US. They do not need a "tutor".

It would morph to sustain itself another way.

It would be a boon to Mandarin language class teachers since the CCP would waste no time in annexing the islands.

@Mr Kipling

China will never start a conflict with neighboring countries! Can you confirm that? There's no way you can do it, right?

In your country, what do you call it when you pretend to be able to do something you can't do?

Ideally Okinawa would be proactive in its tourism industry and get those sweet china bucks. It’s a bit generic but it works for tropical places especially one with Japan added to it

That said the us bases there basically keep things afloat sadly. It’s the least funded prefecture by the government by a wide margin.

Since the US Military are the biggest game in town, local elites will be set up to make money off them or the Japanese government footing the bill. These are highly unlikely to be the best people to take Okinawa in a different direction. A shakeout may be possible but would take decades.

google has them.

studies showed that all locations where us bases closed in europe and asia had economic gains.

No country will attack Hawaii, but there is still a possibility that China will invade Okinawa.

Only in your fantasy world and that of the anti China propagandists.

Even if the US military were to withdraw to a base in Guam or elsewhere, Okinawa would still be on the front line with China. No country will attack Hawaii, but there is still a possibility that China will invade Okinawa.

The Self-Defense Forces will replace the U.S. military with bases, and Okinawa's economy will not change in any way. There is no comparison to Hawaii, and the economy will not improve even if China advances.

We will continue to rely on Japanese subsidies for the time being.

BertieWoosterToday 08:26 am JST

With its (mostly) mild climate, beautiful beaches, scenery and unique culture, Okinawa could be the biggest money spinner in Japan. There would be an economic boom.

Just like how Hawaii is an economic powerhouse of the US...

Okinawa only gets money from Tokyo to ease the guilt over having most of the “burden” of hosting US troops.

no troops, no guilt, no money.

Short answer.. It would be bad for the economy as the Japanese government has regarded base employment as a business model. IF and that is a big IF, the government made Okinawa an investment priority... It is very near to China/Taiwan... then in the future the economy could boom.

Abused spouses often face the same dilemma, stay with an abusive partner or break free. They know which is best but it is still a difficult move to make.

The presence of US military is holding down the economy.

No, it is an island nation, US or not, jobs and tourism make up $10 million of tourism alone

If any aggressor wished to attack Japan, they would attack Okinawa first.

Or Tokyo

So investors are unwilling to spend money here.

Yes, so if the US were to leave China would come in and set its own style of work and ethics, infrastructure you really think Japan would be better off?

Also, US forces occupy prime land that is perfect for development.

Perfect for the US to strategically build a base and to keep China at bay.

With its (mostly) mild climate, beautiful beaches, scenery, and unique culture, Okinawa could be the biggest money spinner in Japan.

We thought that about Hawaii

There would be an economic boom.

Because of the high taxes and seasonal jobs, I would say, fantasy at best.

Look at past history please! (Clark Air Base and Subic Bay Naval stations in the Republic of the Philippines). This very same thing happened in 1991 with US Forces leaving the PI and creating a POWER VACUUM that the CHICOMS are taking advantage of right now. The local economies of Clark and Subic were devastated as in the US supported more than 10% of the PI workforce. I can guarantee a similar scenario would happen, however I would hope the Japanese and the US would work out terms beneficial to both the Okinawans, Japan, and the US. Yes the PI recovered, but at what cost?

All the money that the Japanese government pays to keep the Americans there will be available to give to the Japanese instead.

GarthgoyleToday 09:37 am JST

Absolutely nothing. Some will lose business s their main clientele are US military. But other businesses will pop up.

Ha. Less people on the island? Yes. Much less money coming in due to the bases being gone? Yes. Higher unemployment rate due to all the Japanese suddenly out of work. Yes. Some will lose business as their main clientele are US military. Yes. Other businesses popping up. No. Can't see that. Why would other business pop up when there is no demand or clientele? The island would need a MASSIVE influx of tourists continuously, not to mention huge infrastructure rework (meaning massive funds and investment from a central government that already barely acknowledges its existence) to even come close to replacing the lost revenue from one year much less over decades. I love Okinawa but I'm not seeing that.

Absolutely nothing. Some will lose business s their main clientele are US military. But other businesses will pop up.

The presence of US military is holding down the economy. If any aggressor wished to attack Japan, they would attack Okinawa first. So investors are unwilling to spend money here. Also, US forces occupy prime land that is perfect for development. With its (mostly) mild climate, beautiful beaches, scenery and unique culture, Okinawa could be the biggest money spinner in Japan. There would be an economic boom.

EastmannToday 07:59 am JST

i know that japanese gov will have more money to invest in young families with kids and to reduce record high national debt.

so okinawan as well.

Not if even a tiny fraction of the troops and equipment are replaced with Japanese ones.

Probably nothing good unless it were replaced with an equivalent amount of JSDF forces and equipment.