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3 Japanese returnees from Wuhan test positive for new coronavirus

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"A tour guide living in Osaka Prefecture has been infected with the new coronavirus in addition to a Japanese bus driver, the health ministry said Wednesday, after they rode with Chinese tourists..."

Not really a surprise here! Hope she recovers soon.

17 ( +17 / -0 )

A total of 206 people arrived in Tokyo early in the morning on a government-chartered plane, and 204 of them are being tested for infection with the new coronavirus. The remaining two did not consent, according to the health ministry and the Tokyo metropolitan government.

I wonder if those two understand how grave the situation is. Personally I think those being evacuated shouldn’t have the choice.

25 ( +28 / -3 )

Am looking forward to the press interviews of both these people with one with their nose sticking out from over their mask.

9 ( +14 / -5 )

Reports on this am TV news stated that she was getting better!

It's seems like this is a very contagious bug, yet, if people do catch it, and they have normal immune systems, they can get better.

People with weakened immune systems and in particular the elderly really need to take care!

15 ( +16 / -1 )

They are indigenous virus. Act now.

-12 ( +2 / -14 )

Japan is handling this so poorly, flying the Japanese back and not quarantining them (like other countries are doing) is criminal!

38 ( +42 / -4 )

The number doubled from just a few days ago.

10 ( +10 / -0 )

t is the first time the Japanese government has evacuated nationals by charter plane due to the spread of an infectious disease. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the government's "greatest responsibility" is the protection of its citizens.

Great risk if non-infected are infected by bringing in others from a "hot zone". Hope Abe and the rest of the government are ready to be held accountable if things go bad.

14 ( +15 / -1 )

“A total of 206 people arrived in Tokyo early in the morning on a government-chartered plane, and 204 of them are being tested for infection with the new coronavirus. The remaining two did not consent, according to the health ministry and the Tokyo metropolitan government”.

Japan needs to make testing and possible quarantine a condition to board the evacuation jet. If a person doesn’t consent, they stay back.

24 ( +26 / -2 )

How many more people have been infected in Nara?

7 ( +7 / -0 )

Meanwhile, 13 Japanese are showing symptoms including a fever and cough after they were evacuated from Wuhan on Wednesday, authorities said.

Duh! What did you geniuses think was going to happen??

gogogo

Japan is handling this so poorly, flying the Japanese back and not quarantining them (like other countries are doing) is criminal!

The best you're going to get is Abe and his idiots bowing and apologizing and promising to examine and reflect on their decision.

Another 440 Japanese have asked for help to leave Wuhan, though a Foreign Ministry spokesman said the number was expected to grow. A second flight that departed Tokyo on Wednesday night was scheduled to return Thursday morning with the second group of evacuees, with more flights being arranged.

I guess Japan is going to compete with China on the number of cases. This will spread VERY fast here.

13 ( +15 / -2 )

Found an interesting article.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Relax guys! According to NHK The prime minister says a government task force will be set up on Thursday to help keep the virus from spreading in the country.

That's today!

6 ( +9 / -3 )

"We will do our utmost to prevent the outbreak from spreading," he said.

Yeah, good on you Abe! Dump them all the same hospital in Katsuura. That should be far enough away from Kasumigaseki, right? Does Katsuura have adequate quarantine facilities? Of course it doesn't. It's a flipping bush hospital! I can't believe they let those people return home who refused to be tested. How many people have to die before they start to mandatorily quarantine anybody coming from Wuhan or anybody who has had contact with people from Wuhan in the last month? And, that does not mean sticking them in a bush hospital far from Tokyo. It has already been proven this is an aggressive, highly infectious and deadly virus that has an incubation period of 2-3 weeks. How many have to die? 20? 50? Get your finger out Abe and start taking appropriate action to stop the spread of this disease!

12 ( +16 / -4 )

A total of 6,066 (5,974 cases in mainland China and 92 cases outside China) confirmed cases of novel coronavirus infection including 132 deaths have been reported across the world as of 29 January 2020

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/coronavirus-outbreak-the-countries-affected/

So as of yesterday, the total population outside of china infected was 92.

Meanwhile, 13 Japanese are showing symptoms including a fever and cough after they were evacuated from Wuhan on Wednesday, authorities said

Japan alone has 13 people thanks to the LDP and more will come.

Another 440 Japanese have asked for help to leave Wuhan, though a Foreign Ministry spokesman said the number was expected to grow. A second flight that departed Tokyo on Wednesday night was scheduled to return Thursday morning with the second group of evacuees, with more flights being arranged.

This number will grow exponentially.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the government's "greatest responsibility" is the protection of its citizens.

So you bring back infected people without a proper quarantine plan??

"We will do our utmost to prevent the outbreak from spreading," he said.

You're doing the exact opposite, you muppet.

15 ( +17 / -2 )

Just a flu with a cool name.

-10 ( +11 / -21 )

I can't be the only one who thinks this has all been blown up to ridiculously hysterical levels, just like SARS and MERS were. More people die from the flu than this each year. If you have a regular immune system, and are not elderly, you have nothing to worry about. Even if you get infected, so what? Looking at the symptoms, it's just like a bad cold or mild flu.

-8 ( +11 / -19 )

" I can't believe they let those people return home who refused to be tested."

Aren't you one advocate of the "Japan is a dictatorship worse than China and North Korea" thingy we have to hear regularly on this site?!

How come Japan is not forcing people to be tested against their own wishes then?

Japanese people can come back to Japan any time they like; they also have the right to refuse testing, if it's not mandatory.

-19 ( +6 / -25 )

something to watch

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yq3Y9rmlEQE

1 ( +1 / -0 )

I can't be the only one who thinks this has all been blown up to ridiculously hysterical levels, just like SARS and MERS were. More people die from the flu than this each year. If you have a regular immune system, and are not elderly, you have nothing to worry about. Even if you get infected, so what? Looking at the symptoms, it's just like a bad cold or mild flu.

Thats not entirely true. The truth is we don't know the extent of the disease for otherwise healthy individuals. The only reason it seems like elderly people are only affected is because they die easier. It could just be that the younger people take longer to get to a critical level. The truth is that we don't know the ramifications for young people, but we do know that it affects old people.

It'd be a good idea to stop spreading falsehoods.

14 ( +16 / -2 )

I can't be the only one who thinks this has all been blown up to ridiculously hysterical levels, just like SARS and MERS were.

Keep in mind that the incubation period for this new virus is 14 days, compared to the flu's 1-4 days.

Also, the possibility of this new disease mutating and further wreaking havoc.

I wish I could agree with you on this that this is getting blown out of proportion but in reality it isn't.

10 ( +11 / -1 )

The remaining two did not consent, according to the health ministry and the Tokyo metropolitan government.

Forcing them would be a violation of individual rights.

-19 ( +4 / -23 )

So some seem to think if you are old or have weak immune systems you dont deserve protection from this virus ?

How about this article then China is burning the bodies of victims

""Chinese-language news outlet Initium interviewed people working at local cremation centres in Wuhan, who said bodies were being sent directly from hospitals without being properly identified and added to the official record.""

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12304547

4 ( +5 / -1 )

Anyone who doesn't consent to being quarantined as long as necessary should not have been allowed on the flight out.

The next flights out to Japan need to have that stipulation.

When there is a deadly disease, personal rights and freedoms need to take a back seat for the good of the people.

17 ( +18 / -1 )

Came back from Taiwan a month back and had all these symptoms. Was quite sick. Spouse also. took three weeks to fully recover.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

On the train heading to Osaka and approximately half of the passengers are wearing masks.

Now that the disease has been shown to be in Kansai the number of concerned Japanese and foreigners will rise...

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Prevention

There is currently no vaccine to prevent 2019-nCoV infection. The best way to prevent infection is to avoid being exposed to this virus. However, as a reminder, CDC always recommends everyday preventive actions to help prevent the spread of respiratory viruses, including:

Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer that contains at least 60% alcohol if soap and water are not available.

Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands.

Avoid close contact with people who are sick.

Stay home when you are sick.

Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.

Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

Why are there still flights from China? They should be stopped until this is over. Common sense.

10 ( +13 / -3 )

According to the most recent World Health Organization report, there are now 6000 total reported cases around the world.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Avenger said:

"Forcing them would be a violation of individual rights."

Michael said:

In Japan, there is a thing called " Group-ism " The Japanese culture demands that we think of the group and not the individual. So, violation of individual rights? Really?

8 ( +9 / -1 )

If you're going to wear a mask to prevent you from touching your mouth and nose by at least putting an obstacle in front of them to hopefully make you think first, then also wear a pair of safety glasses. The risk of touching your eyes is far greater and no matter what they say, it can be caught that way.

The regular masks do very little to block the air from coming in the sides but if someone sneezes or coughs right at your face, it should at least block the direct ejected droplets. You would be strongly advised to immediately and properly dispose of that mask and wash your face as soon as possible. Safety glasses would have helped in a situation such as that in crowded public areas such as mass transit.

Be proactive, take care and be safe!

7 ( +7 / -0 )

The bus driver and tour guide came in contact with 22 people? No that is wrong, the number of contacts is exponential and is more like in the thousands of people who shared the same air and or touched door knobs, silverware, plates etc. You better stock up on dry food goods and stay home until this situation levels off.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

All of foreign countries are beginning evacuating its citizens, UK government in the meantime are being criticized for being too slow compared to the Americans and Japanese

0 ( +2 / -2 )

"We will do our utmost to prevent the outbreak from spreading," he said.

Until and unless you quarantine all those known to have likely been in contact with the virus (those evacuated from China, transport staff, medical staff, the journos doing that stupid face-to-face interview, etc., etc.), that is a blatant lie.

Forcing them would be a violation of individual rights.

And the individual rights of all the individuals these possibly infected people are going to come into contact with in their home areas, the individual rights of the hotel staff looking after those who didn't go home....?

Invalid CSRF

9 ( +10 / -1 )

Real-time update on coronavirus outbreak

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177737.shtml

China will make progress to contain coronavirus outbreak by Feb 8: expert

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177958.shtml

1 ( +1 / -0 )

This article states: "Japan is on high alert to prevent the virus from spreading through human-to human contact."

That sounds like a good idea since it takes the virus 2 weeks to incubate and reveal itself, so people could look perfectly fine in the early stages yet giving the virus to others.

However, the article later states: "Three people have already returned to their homes."

Were they in quarantine for 2 weeks? It doesn't look like it. In Australia, the citizens returning there have to go in to quarantine on Christmas Is., while in the U.S. citizens returning there have to be isolated at military bases for prolonged observation before being allowed to return to society.

I've heard that the Japanese are going to try self-quarantine, but isn't that rather difficult to supervise? Also, the govt. would be dependent on the honesty of the returnees to stay at home, but what do they do if they want to buy food, soap or smokes? Hopefully, it'll work, but it really depends on the returnees keeping themselves indoors and completely away from the public for 2 weeks. That's kind of a tall order, isn't it? If hundreds of Japanese returning from China are going to be processed like this, then it'll be difficult for all of them to follow the govt. guidelines by staying indoors for 2 weeks without going outside for something they want or need.

6 ( +7 / -1 )

I think government is doing good for protecting its citizens, but they should keep eye on them at least 1 or 2 weeks.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Akie and CrazyJoe above must be referring to this paper, in CrazyJoe's link of 8:00 am today.

Re-posting the link: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

Quote: Of note, the 2 male donors have a higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than all other 6 female donors (1.66% vs. 0.41% of all cells, P value=0.07, Mann Whitney Test). In addition, the distribution of ACE2 is also more widespread in male donors than females: at least 5 different types of cells in male lung express this receptor, while only 2~4 types of cells in female lung express the receptor. This result is highly consistent with the epidemic investigation showing that most of the confirmed 2019-nCov infected patients were men (30 vs. 11, by Jan 2, 2020).

We also noticed that the only Asian donor (male) has a much higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than white and African American donors (2.50% vs. 0.47% of all cells). This might explain the observation that the new Coronavirus pandemic and previous SARS-Cov pandemic are concentrated in the Asian area.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

The remaining two who didn't consent should be shipped back to Wuhan.

16 ( +17 / -1 )

So the government was either stupid or lying or both when they said, just yesterday, "no one has the virus"....

To the Japanese Government, why did you not quarantine them for 14 days! MORONS! You complete idiots just allowed these people to go home on public transport!

10 ( +13 / -3 )

@CrazyJoeToday  08:00 am JST

Thank you for posting a really interesting and informative article.

Found an interesting article.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

This may help explain why some of these viruses originate where they do. It would be interesting to revisit this after there are more cases (samples) to add to the research pool.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

If you have to take two weeks off work for quarantine, does your company still have to pay you your usual wage? If not, I couldn't afford to take the time off. Must be others like me, who would happily stick with quarantine as long as we don't lose two weeks of pay.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

Not to be anti Abe, but he and the rest of the government took this action and now risking the rest of us who don't have this virus, the number keeps climbing from those coming in as Abe's decision, but WHY IS HE and THE REST of the DIET not GREETING THEM DIRECTLY boots on the ground. A sign of faith and trust that they have no virus infection. WHY? Don't you readers out there agree that it was their decision yet they don't GREET them home PERSONALLY?

5 ( +7 / -2 )

The first evacuation flight landed at March AFB, out in the desert near LA.

Yeah but out in the desert is a little misleading. It's only several minutes to the I-215 and about 5-10 minutes away from Perris. My father worked in the Perris school district and there are many Immigrants from Mexico and low income families in that area. If things ever progressed out of MAFB, it would do a lot of damage and eventually spread towards Riverside and Temecula. It would be best to make it a mandatory requirement to stay on base if any else evacuate.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

It’s now a domestic case and I don’t feel safe anymore!

5 ( +5 / -0 )

Not to be anti Abe, but he and the rest of the government took this action and now risking the rest of us who don't have this virus, the number keeps climbing from those coming in as Abe's decision,

Well, Abe's government seemed to have read the public mood correctly in Japan. Consider the reporting direction of this Asahi (the most critical of Japan's big 4 newspapers) article:

https://digital.asahi.com/articles/ASN1Y75CQN1YUHBI02F.html?ref=hiru_mail_topix1

「収容者の島」に隔離、中国便停止…新型肺炎に世界は

島民、知らされぬまま

 人口約1800人の同島には、東南アジアなどからの難民希望者らを一時的に収容する施設が2001年に作られた。2千人を収容した時期もあったが、13年以降は政府が密航者を原則追い返しており、今の収容者はスリランカ人親子4人しかいない。この施設で隔離するとみられる。

 島民には、今回の決定は知らされていなかった。豪メディアによると、島民からは「人々の安全な帰国のための役割を果たすなら良いことだ」といった肯定的な意見がある一方、「収容者の島が今度は検疫の島か」「ウイルスが制御不能にならないか心配だ」「政府は豪州人を守りたいというが、ここの島民も豪州人だ」といった否定的な意見が目立っている。

This is about the Australian decision.

仏では帰国ためらう人も

...

 健康で症状がない人のみを乗せ、到着後はパリ周辺の専用施設に2週間隔離する。隔離を受け入れる書類に署名することが搭乗の条件だ。1便目はフランス人のみを乗せ、2便目に欧州出身者を乗せる。隔離施設の具体的な場所や、欧州出身者にも同様の措置を取るかは明らかになっていない。

 欧州で最初の感染が明らかになったフランスでは、28日には初めて重症患者の存在が明らかになった。世論が感染に敏感になっており、国内での拡大リスクを抑えようとしているとみられる。ただ、個人の自由を重んじる国柄のため、仏メディアによると、隔離を理由に帰国をためらう人もいる。

This is France.

Note where the emphasis is - on the negatives of the quarantine decision. The Australian native islanders not being informed of the decision and worrying about their fate and being made into 2nd class citizens. French hesitating to return due to the quarantine.

We can thus predict that if Japan had tried similar tactics, they'll be attacked more than praised ... at least by Japanese.

-7 ( +5 / -12 )

So the government flys back a bunch of worried people, at tax payers expense, 3 people on the flight are found to have the virus and yet TWO muppets refuse to be tested and are free to roam among us.

Mmmm what could possible go wrong?

14 ( +14 / -0 )

The number count affected could be way over 250,000, at least. This plaque occurred during the Chinese New Year festival where a few millions dropped in Wuhan to celebrate with love ones, and "they" returned a day or within 24 hours before the outbreak came to light. Not to alarm anyone, but I'm afraid there's more to come on this. Just pray this is contained before the Olympics make there way through. Uff, what a mess that will be!

0 ( +3 / -3 )

how are those masks working out?

1 ( +2 / -1 )

A very good Youtube presentation on the censorship and propaganda aspect of this situation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSIt496d82s

2 ( +2 / -0 )

@Kazuaki Shimazaki

Yesterday the government announced that there was nobody infected by the virus in the first returning plane. Now they admitted that three people are infected. This is dramatically comical and it precisely shows why a quarantine is needed. This is not rocket science.

You are trying to argue since yesterday even though the reality proved you wrong that Japan known to be an authoritarian country suddenly can't impose a quarantine in order to protect public health. This is utterly ridiculous. If Japan can decide to refuse to deliver a passport to a journalist or decide that Fukushima is a no go zone, then there is no logical reason that it can't impose a quarantine on potentially infected people. And again the plain cold reality is proving that this is the way to go as THREE people are in fact infected.

French hesitating to return due to the quarantine.

The French government is being reasonable. French citizens returning from Wuhan need to stay in quarantine upon their arrival in France. People who don't want to be in quarantine are then invited to stay in China. This is perfectly reasonable given that again we are talking about governments having the responsibility to protect public health.

4 ( +8 / -4 )

Well, Abe's government seemed to have read the public mood correctly in Japan. Consider the reporting direction of this Asahi (the most critical of Japan's big 4 newspapers) article:

I don't what articles or what public mood, but the blogs out there were numerous and overwhelming against bringing them back and released publicly. The few who did support in various blogs favored 'minimum 14 days of quarantine" But did anyone from Abe's cabinet stop and conduct the "meet and greet" as a sign of faith and trust that they were not infected? hmmm I was watching live media and didn't see any such body of government from Abe's cabinet there. Did anyone? Again I am not stating I am anti Abe or Japan government, what I am saying is who will take responsibility for us. They made the decision against the grade of the many just like he has been doing. I also didn't see any of the mega-rich conducting any "welcome back, meet and greet" did anyone see any of the mega rich?

5 ( +6 / -1 )

WTF were the JGov thinking?

Why is it they think so differently to America, Australia, France, South Korea etc???

3 ( +5 / -2 )

Japanese people can come back to Japan any time they like; they also have the right to refuse testing, if it's not mandatory.

A childish libertarian view that would allow the disease to spread and people to die. If they didn't consent to a test then they shouldn't have been allowed on the specially chartered flight.

11 ( +13 / -2 )

Even if the virus at one time had the potential to kick off a pandemic, it is not going to happen. No one lives in fear of the flu, and thus far Coronavirus in China is not even a half a percent as significant as the flu is in the United States. With everyone on their guard now, wearing at least some protection, being cautious, and staying as isolated as possible, coupled with a far lower mortality than originally predicted, the chances of anything big happening might as well be zero.

This outbreak is going to stall and vanish.

-8 ( +3 / -11 )

I heard on the radio from Hong Kong today that there is now 12,000 confirmed cases in China and some thing in the number of 80,000 suspected cases so if this is accurate things are grim for anyone there in that mess.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

Is this "self-quarantine" expected to be any more effective than the bail conditions/home arrest of Carlos Ghosn?

How can we expect the 2 jerks who wouldn't even agree to be tested to agree to keeping away from the rest of us?

Testing and quarantine should have been a condition of getting onto that evacuation plane. That's 3 positives, SO FAR. Expect more.

7 ( +8 / -1 )

3 Japanese returnees from Wuhan test positive for new coronavirus

Canadian News are saying the number is AT LEAST 5 now. Does anyone know anthing about that?

2 more countries, Finland & UAE, confirm it has the virus.

The number of infections in China is now larger than the number of SARS cases. with SARS we were dealing with a time frame of 8 months.

Wuhan Virus cases have now exceeded that in Less than a month.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNz6soo-IaI

6 ( +7 / -1 )

Tom DoleyToday 02:44 pm JST

Why is it they think so differently to America, Australia, France, South Korea etc???

Three differences. One, they think long term. Two, they think legally. Three, they have a compliant population.

First (3). People keep noticing the TWO people who refused, without noticing the over TWO HUNDRED that agreed to being effectively quarantined without any legal compulsion. If this extends through the other flights (two, maybe?), we'll be having 6 people out of over 600 who disagree.

Second (1). How much damage can those six people do? First, there were 3 infected out of over 200 checked, so the probability is about 1.5%. In the event they are infected, statistically this coronavirus has (I've heard on local news) an average infectability of under 3 (2 point something), so even if all 6 are infected realistically they can infect maybe 15 people. The mortality rate is again, under 3%, so with some luck, none of those 15 will die.

Realistically though, the expected amount of lives that can be saved by pushing the issue is:

6.0152.5*.03=0.00675 human lives

That's if we assume that moral persuasion may not work better than legal coercions. It's not that hard to imagine 1% of people breaking contractual obligations, is it? But anyway, for these 0.00675 human lives, the permanent legal consequences everyone in the country pays is significant, which is where we go to:

Third (2). The quarantine can be done under public law or private law. If you use public law, you will have to live with the fact that the statutes are very tightly written to allow for no executive discretion. It will be done on no legal basis at all, so you are basically making a precedent allowing extra-legal detention by executive fiat.

2nd, you'll be allowing two weeks detention on the basis of 1.5% estimated probability of "guilt", with not even a theoretical chance of reversal.

The other idea is to use private law, which seems to be what the Brits are doing. They are apparently making people sign "contracts". Using private law does get around the problem of statutory basis, but the cost is still significant.

1) It is now a valid "contract" for people to sign themselves into 14 days of captivity. This would be a significant shift in the limits of what people can "volunteer" to dispose, and a significant downgrade of the public policy protection.

2) To dangle their flight out of an pandemic zone home as the prize is a fairly strong coercion. The pretense and premise of all contracts in private law is free will - that is, not deceived and not coerced. To accept that as "free will" means a significant and permanent degradation in the protective power of the law to protect the weak against coercive tactics and coming back to the times of "I don't care if you clearly look beaten into signing the deal. You signed it - live with it."

-12 ( +1 / -13 )

Whats wrong with all country bringing back own suspected coronavirus or sources locations and back 2weeks quarantine. Do they really want to kill all less immune citizens. China never ask the other coubtry to take back. Its lockdoen for godsake. Now too late. Why bring fee infected to own country with no vaccine. Good luck for your family. Man made worsen mistakes scenarios.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

Do they really want to kill all less immune citizens.

OMG. Do you think this is the LDP solution to the graying population / pension problem?!? (@@!)

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Kazuaki,

First, there were 3 infected out of over 200 checked,

So far. Please note that the bus-driver in Nara initially tested negative. I have also seen the number bumped up to 5 now in other reports. It is too early to know how many more will test positive in the next few days.

The mortality rate is again, under 3%, so with some luck, none of those 15 will die.

The mortality rate is not yet known. Cases are increasing rapidly and it takes a week or two to know if they will recover or die. Early on, I saw lists of patient statuses (that showed "positive", "recovered", and "died". The died and recovered numbers were about even. Would I decide based on that that it was 50%? No.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

The officials in China are beginning to say that it appears they have it under control. New cases are not skyrocketing upward, they are beginning to flatten out.

China's swift response and decisive action was credited for stopping the outbreak. There will be many more infected than were in the SARS outbreak when it is over, but fewer deaths than Sars because the virus is not anywhere near as lethal. From what it looks like, there will be between 13, 000 and 17, 000 confirmed cases before it is over and between 298 and 390 deaths total before it is over. That would make it a very well contained and managed outbreak that has no where near the impact of the yearly flu.

-7 ( +1 / -8 )

Seems early days yet to me to be saying the virus is less lethal than SARS. Do you have a link for that Avenger?

7:47 am Jan 30

In total 7,711 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus have been reported in China as of Jan 29, with 170 deaths and 124 recovered.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177737.shtml

The response from China this time is much better. Hopefully transmission can be brought under control before hospitals are overwhelmed.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

taj Today  04:44 pm JST

Perhaps it will, but the calculation is designed with huge margins. The virus will have to be about 150 times more dangerous than present evidence shows (through a combination of increased probability of infection, increased infectivity and increased lethality) just to push that value to 1 human life. Which is still far from a great basis to insert precedents in the law that will greatly weaken the overall protection it provides to the average citizen.

-14 ( +0 / -14 )

The Lancet medical journal published a report from Wuhan last Friday January 24th regarding the case of a ten year old Chinese boy who showed no symptoms yet his immediate family members all had Coronavirus. Upon testing it was found he was a carrying the virus.

So yes Mr Abe it is regrettable that you can't make two of your citizens be tested and quarantined for a couple of weeks when people in your ministry and the media at large would presumably have known about this case.

And it will also be regrettable if the IOC have to cancel the Tokyo Olympics if the WHO announce that this is a global emergency.

Also as I speak in Australia authorities are urgently seeking around 40 people who flew on a domestic flight alongside a now diagnosed coronavirus patient from China. Are Japanese authorities seeking to retrace the movements of that tour bur driver and guide with the same urgency? And what of the locations where the tour bus stopped for sightseeing, shopping, eating, bathroom breaks etc.?

I stress the word urgency, not panic, urgency.

7 ( +8 / -1 )

This puts all those on that flight at risk; 206 pax plus crew. Because Japan is not quarantining these Wuhan returnees, it is going to pose a serious public health risk. The virus can spread quite quickly in Japan.

6 ( +6 / -0 )

B. JayToday  05:44 pm JST

This puts all those on that flight at risk; 206 pax plus crew. Because Japan is not quarantining these Wuhan returnees, it is going to pose a serious public health risk. The virus can spread quite quickly in Japan.

Actually, all but two of them agreed to be quarantined, without the need for legal coercion.

-9 ( +1 / -10 )

doesn't Japan have public health laws to cover this? They should.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

knight_of_HonourToday  06:27 pm JST

doesn't Japan have public health laws to cover this? They should.

They have public health laws. Said public health law explicitly has exactly 13 diseases that are considered to be serious enough the legislature has approved Quarantine (Deprival of Liberty) measures. The Executive has no discretion to add some of its own.

-9 ( +0 / -9 )

How many people did it take initially for the virus to start spreading in Wuhan?

Seeing how many people are infected, I would say not only a patient 0 but a group infection

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Ministry of Health is playing with fire here. IF major infection breaks out because of the two people who were allowed to skip testing and go straight home, that'd be a seppuku-category mistake. Of course, these days that mostly means bowing a little deeper, maybe stepping down, and likely getting a well-paid job 天下り style, but still. What's behind this sudden recklessness? Mere incompetence?

2 ( +4 / -2 )

"so even if all 6 are infected realistically they can infect maybe 15 people"

You do realise how a virus works?? It does't just stop when those 15 people are infected. They will go on to infect others, who will go on to infect others, who will go on to infect others.

6 ( +6 / -0 )

@ Kevin Turley - well stated. Some people are completely clueless about viruses and how they spread exponentially.

This is extremely troubling. All of the returnees should be in lockdown and observation for 2 weeks. If these people wished to be bailed out from Wuhan - at huge expense to the taxpayer - the absolute minimum they could have been expected to do is be quarantined to protect the healthy in Japan.

As for the 2 dropkicks who refused consent to test, the public has a right to know where they live and work. Pressure should be put on their employer companies (likely auto makers) to fire them.

3 ( +6 / -3 )

come on Japan! What do you think this is, China?

5 ( +5 / -0 )

And when the rest of them who don't test positive for it now but develop it later? Oh well for the rest of us, I guess.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

"come on Japan! What do you think this is, China?"

Don't you often paint Japan as worse than China and N Korea?

Why the sudden change?

-5 ( +1 / -6 )

It's clear that everyone in Wuhan has this virus. It is going to be a matter of how it is handled rather than how it is contained.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

The way that Japan has handled this is very poor..

My home country (The UK) are flying British returnees to a RAF base before moving them all onto 14 day isolation at a former NHS staff accommodation...

8 ( +8 / -0 )

Definition of Pandemic that the WHO is in denial: A pandemic (from Greek πᾶν pan "all" and δῆμος demos "people") is an epidemic of disease that has spread across a large region; for instance multiple continents, or even worldwide. A widespread endemic disease that is stable in terms of how many people are getting sick from it is not a pandemic.

Why is the WHO leader failing his duties as many countries have reported live cases, deaths and those infected with coronavirus. As far as I can read, the above definition clearly meets the definition that the WHO leader fails to declare officially. YOUR FIRED.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Fighto!Today 07:49 pm JST

If these people wished to be bailed out from Wuhan - at huge expense to the taxpayer - the absolute minimum they could have been expected to do is be quarantined to protect the healthy in Japan.

Here's another fact: they were not bailed out "at huge expense to the taxpayer". The present course is that they are to be charged 80000 yen each, comparable to a plane ticket (not Low-Cost Airline) bought at short notice. Sure, there are incidentals like the bus to bus them to the airport, but broadly speaking they are paying their way home.

It seems that had brought more controversy than the whole quarantine business.

https://digital.asahi.com/articles/ASN1Z449RN1ZULFA00C.html

チャーター機の1人8万円請求、政府方針変えず 菅長官

-9 ( +0 / -9 )

@Kevin Turley Today 07:29 pm JST

You do realise how a virus works?? It does't just stop when those 15 people are infected. They will go on to infect others, who will go on to infect others, who will go on to infect others.

15 is if I generously assume every one of the six is infected, which is quite unlikely. Yes, there might be some chain reactions but because they'll be caught and go to the hospital quickly, the spread should stop with relative ease. In the end, maybe 100 people would get infected, and statistically two might die. That's tragic, but Japan has over 100 million people. The law's future shape affects 100 million plus people. You don't sacrifice it over TWO DEATHS.

You do realize that one purpose of democratic government is to moderate populist reactions, which are knee jerks, shallow reflex reactions from people with a parochial, tactical view who don't care how their knee jerk reflex answer might bring trouble decades down the road.

-10 ( +0 / -10 )

According to Japanese news, of the 206 people 191 stayed at a hotel (a couple refused as you know and some had to go to a hospital). But apparently they only had 140 rooms available and some people had to stay with non-family members. Reportedly some non-infected people got stuck with the infected!

1 ( +1 / -0 )

3 from the 200 already? The radio is very high considering how huge Wuhan is and the chance them getting it. This thing is spreading way too fast. I am worried for other small nations who doesn't have the infrastructure to quarantine it. Imagine it ending up in Africa or South America. The governments might not even dare to report it because of the chaos that it would cause. Because they would not have the ability to stop the spread, test for the virus or the manpower to check everyone. It might have already spread in some countries but no one cares at the moment. I really hope China can contain it.

I know many dissagree about Japan bringing back the nationals, but you can't just leave your own people in a country and tell them to wait it out. We have the infrastructure, facilities and doctors. We can't just abandon them there. China would might not have enough resources to attend to everyone. They even need to build more hospitals. We should share the burden and bring back them back. This way many more will at least get the neccecary care they need instead of waiting it out in a foreign country. Now is not the time to be consume by fear but instead is a chance for the neighboring countries to work together to survive. Korea, China and Japan and the rest of the world need to pool their resources together to contain this.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

I'm all about personal rights, always, with 1 exception, public health.

A virus doesn't care about my rights or yours.

The long incubation period means by the time a carrier knows, they've already had contact with 100 others.

The hardest part is that sick people don't know which illness they have because the symptoms are generic and apply to a few other common illnesses.

Stay home, self-report any illness, do what the professionals say.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Well, I’m glad the Japanese government is acting so swiftly on this. This could definitely prevent another mass outbreak, as in relatively few people get infected, because governments acted much more quickly by doing preventative measures.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

I am pleased to see a vast majority of posters here understand the danger of this situation. The vector is huge and widening. that means that millions have been exposed 2 milion got out of the infected city before it was shut down.

do the math.

as for the two idiots who refused to be tested, they likely KNEW they had ti and wanted to get away. It should not have been allowed. Never. Get them back and force a testing. time to be realistic is NOW.. A week from now will be far too late.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

The long incubation period means by the time a carrier knows, they've already had contact with 100 others.

Unfortunately your math is far too lenient. The average person interacts with 25 people a day. That's your co-workers, your boss, the guy at the combini ringing up your purchases, etc, etc.

But for viral transmission, you have to look at every person you come within 2 meters of in a single day. So if just one of these people rides a subway... that means anywhere between 10-15 people. Then there's the folks they pass walking to and from the subway. And the folks in the grocery store that they pass. And the people in the office that you don't speak to or interact with, but as you move through elevators, hallways, bathrooms, etc, you come in contact with.

If you're talking a busy city like Tokyo or Osaka, that could easily be 100-1000 people per day. At 14 days of incubation, that means somewhere between 1400-14,000 people they've come into contact with (not counting if they coughed and left virus on bathroom handles, etc, etc).

Just one carrier walking through or hanging out in a train station like Shinjuku could expose tens of thousands of people to a disease, considering that Shinjuku handles 3.5 million passengers a day.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

I wanted to compare the cases of flu virus and the coronavirus in the USA. Here is a quote from the CDC (Center For Disease Control):

CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

So far there are six cases of coronavirus in the USA. There were 5 yesterday.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Unfortunately your math is far too lenient. The average person interacts with 25 people a day.

Agreed. I didn't want to overstate the numbers, while still making a point. Plus staying base-10 means the exponential infection rate is easier for normal people to understand.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

theFuToday  12:06 am JST

I'm all about personal rights, always, with 1 exception, public health.

A virus doesn't care about my rights or yours.

The long incubation period means by the time a carrier knows, they've already had contact with 100 others.

Of those "100 others", not all will get infected. In fact, the infectivity of this thing is rather low, currently estimated at 2 point something per person, so basically most of those "others" will shrug it off. It is simplistic to act as if just because they had contact all is doomed.

Look, let me make a suggestion to those hecklers, many of which live in Japan. Why don't you band together with those bloggers that supposedly object also, find these two people and abduct them. After that, you can go plead in court. Really, you have just as much legal basis as the government (none). See what the court thinks of your defense against kidnapping charges :)

If you aren't willing to risk criminal liability, why do you expect other people to do so?

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

Clearly Japan needs to be more rigorous about allowing potentially infected travellers to just bypass the screening. In Australia we are giving our returning citizens we are flying back from Wuhan the choice of either being taken straight out to a facility we are organising on Christmas Island, or staying where they are in China. Of course some people are whingeing aboutg it already, but tough luck, the good of the majority should take priority. Trouble is, some people are selfish and stupid!

2 ( +2 / -0 )

I totally agree with Tony's opinion.

To date, Abe Shinzo has been responsive in matters important to Japan's core interests but he appeared to be not decisive in this crisis.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

They should be put in quarantine!(just like France does!)

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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