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© KYODOAbe announces lifting of state of emergency for 39 prefectures
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ATM's
A poorly advised decision.
It should be ALL or NONE.
Opening some prefectures and leaving others closed will only lead to people sneaking to the 'opened' prefectures and hence reversing all the gains so far.
half-hearted jumper
Sad, avoidable... but probable. Watch some commenters here declare it to be "the cost of doing business".
jeancolmar
Watch the 39 prefectures Abe opened up get spikes in the coronavirus.
half-hearted jumper
You had stated that the COVID-19 situation was nothing but fear-mongering (paraphrased). The virus there is the same as here, and it is a wise course of action for the govt. to utilise the experiences of other nations to better control the situation here. You're more than happy to quote OS situations when it favors your argument ("German virologist").
Yes, the US/Italy (America in particular) crises are worst case scenarios, but they are absolutely relevant, and stand as dire proof of what can happen if you treat it as nothing to be afraid of.
Oxycodin
Exactly @golfer-1962
Low number of testing means no reported cases of covid to be sent to WHO database = lets open the economy and hope we have enough hospital bed to accommodate everyone.
golfer1962
One way to get the number of cases way down per 100,000 in Tokyo:
New Cases:
May 11: 15
May 12: 28
May 13: 10
May 14: 30
Number of tests done in Tokyo:
May 10: 28
May 11: 10
May 12: 10
May 13: 17
Amazing that a city of 14 million is conducting only 65 tests over 4 days....
RationalReader
Florida & Georgia re-opened about two weeks ago. This site shows how they (and the rest of the country) are doing.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
This is probably a good guide to how Japan will do over the next couple of weeks.
kitzrow
This subject has gotten a lot of replies. Open up? Have you ever closed down? Which direction are you going?
Brian William Meissner
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 I have been paying attention to this since February and it contradicts much of what’s reported about Japan. If the government lifts the state of emergency it’ll purely be for economic reasons. This virus is showing no signs of slowing down in spread in Japan. I think the government is feeling the economic pressure and wants to move too quickly to mitigate it. What I think will happen, is worse than we are seeing now.
Jon San
Good to hear. Japan has handled this crises well and now is well on the way to recovery. The Japanese people coupled with Strong leadership of PM Abe are to be congratulated.
theResident
@smithinjapan: And your comment adds what to this debate?
gogogo
They fall when you only test 500 people a day... Criminal and I hope history reports it that way
mmwkdw
Will we still get our 100K JPY ?
AramaTaihenNoYouDidnt
The main objective for Japan is to learn how to expect change so they can step into the right direction without experiencing growing pains. People need to have access to information to investigate different perspectives and widen their understanding to expect change.
Oxycodin
A country that is begging to be tested and help me and save me from covid19 as majority of doctors coward away and hide and send you home with common cold medicine if lucky stating your safe no need to be tested and a nation thats sweeping a lot under the carpet and yet open the economy and can't help you even if you are dying?
Oxycodin
Are you Kidding with me and the world? Seriously? A country that has a extremly low rate of testing for covid19 to allow 39 prefectures to scramble about and open market so that another wave of Covid19 wave of attack hits them all??? This is madness.
longtimenosee
Those who think it's a fear-based narrative, you're what I am really afraid of.
Distancing measures are effective. They have saved us thus far.
theFu
The numbers from 2 weeks ago are what each locality should be considering as they decide when and how to reopen.
Follow the facts. One size doesn't fit everywhere.
AlexBecu
Japan is a very densely populated, "super aged" society with the world's highest density of citizens over 65. It is also close to China, where the SARS-CoV-2 virus first appeared, and received 925,000 Chinese visitors in January plus a further 89,000 in February. Consequently, Japan would be expected to have a high number of infections.
Japan has done an incredible job. With only 668 death cases. Some consider S. Korea a huge success but look at their population number and then look at Japan's numbers.
carpslidy
Listening to Abe's speech I still have no idea what the plan is or was.
oldman_13
Good for Abe!
Time for the world economy to reopen.
Truly the cure has been worse than the disease in this case.
funkymofo
It's always the worker who must be the canary in the coal mine.
spinningplates
As can be seen from the comments, the Government has succeeded. Those on one side don't trust the official data. Those on the other don't care.
Welcome to forced herd immunity.
Ordered Harmony.
Reiwa.
jeancolmar
It is likely that the infection rate will go up in those 39 prefectures thanks to the end of the state of emergency. If this pandemic is like others, a second wave will likely be hitting us in the near future. Those 39 prefectures will be the least prepared.
That Asie, infection rates will likely rise in the 39 prefectures very soon because people will be off guard.
Peter Neil
The problem is not sensible people taking precautions. The problem is stupid people who affect and infect the sensible.
Attilathehungry
I don't care if there IS a second wave, or third, or fourth. Life has an element of risk to it. There is no way to be perfectly safe from viruses, germs, microbes, bacteria, etc. Every time I get in my car to go to work there is a chance that I may die. Happens to more than 3,000 people every year. Should we reduce the speed limit to 20km/h, in the interest of saving those 3,000?
Take sensible precautions and get on with life. These days, people are too insistent on perfect solutions to complicated problems. There IS no solution that will make the virus go away.
kurisupisu
There has not been such a high casualty rate in Japan as other countries-I personally know people that have recovered from the virus and as of yet no deaths that I know of.
Nor have I seen ambulances taking dead bodies from houses or apartments in Japan from the outset of this pandemic
However, deaths in Italy can be seen and obituary columns take up several pages.
If there are deaths occurring then I do not see the evidence...
Japantime
A lot of people predicted mass deaths like America. It doesn’t seem to have happened. I guess those are the people saying the state of emergency should continue.
smithinjapan
"One of the criteria for lifting the state of emergency in the remaining prefectures proposed by the experts is whether infections have fallen below 0.5 new cases per 100,000 people in the past week."
I don't think Japan has even done 100,000 tests. Is this like a phone survey by the Yomiuri where they ask 100 people a question and then say the nation is this way or that?
Serrano: "Game Over Man, GAME OVER! Maybe we can build a fire, sing a couple of songs, huh? Why don't we try that?"
You insult the memory of Aliens. And your quotation doesn't even make sense.
blahblah222
Most of the Japanese scientists have stated that the government numbers are vastly understated, while most people continue believe the government propaganda that coronavirus doesn't spread in Japan.
https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASN5C02QGN58UTFK01N.html
https://www.kobe-np.co.jp/news/sougou/202005/0013318051.shtml
If you get coronavirus and actually needs medical intervention, you are pretty much screwed if you are in Japan. Just look at the timelines of the reported deaths, and those are the lucky ones, and even they needed more than a week after severe symptoms to get care. Most infected people are being forced to die in their homes in order to make Japan look good.
The problem is that Japan restrict testing so that people who needs treatment cannot get tested and therefore does not receive treatment on time. (For those working black companies, they would be forced to go to work and spread it more). Avoidable deaths are occurring because of this heavy handed quota system to deny testing to most people.
Even looking at Tokyo's public data https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/, the majority of requests are being denied.
Serrano
Game Over Man, GAME OVER!
Maybe we can build a fire, sing a couple of songs, huh? Why don't we try that?
Richard Gallagher
The numbers were fudged because of the Olympics. Evidence, please. There could be ten times, twenty times the existing number of cases: once again, evidence please? The incredible number of individuals opining and the pretense it is fact or reality is amusing. For instance: exponential spread based on 2.6 per individual, which is utter nonsense and ignores the complexity and has no basis in any manner of fact. It is a mathematical model which is speculative and based on no actual data wedded to the spread of the virus. The panacea of testing is continually misrepresented as be some kind of indicator: you going to test everyone, at once? Then track down all contact? Sure. What is fact, the incidence of comorbidity and fatalities from SARSCoV-2. Which requires an adjustment in representing numbers. The gross ignorance of numerous postings is entertaining and oft reflects a very peculiar prejudice or inflated sense of self. Especially, the foreigners living in Japan. The continual reference to 'Japan' is simply queer, as well as meaningless.
Takuma7
Game Over Man, GAME OVER!
ATM's
It's too early to lift the State of Emergency.
Worse still is lifting in a few prefectures will result people drifting from the locked states to re-opened states.
This will take us back to where we started and all the gains so far will be nullified.
"Stay at Home" should continue to a minimum, end of May.
i@n
So you expect Japan to lie about the number of deaths.
And yet you believe they are honest about the testing results because they apparently need to limit the number of tests to keep the number of cases low.
If they would be lying anyway then what they would have done is ramp up the number of testing to appease those calling for more tests then just lie about the results.
They don't need to limit testing and put up with the global criticisms when they can just lie about the positive cases.
blahblah222
Japan will never have an "an exponential increase" because testing is strictly controlled and have a fixed quota.
Even if thousands are dying every day, you can expect Japan to report a few hundred cases max.
Japan can raise and lower the situation at their whim, they just need to increase or decrease their daily testing quota. After all, it is the government bureaucrats without any medical backgrounds who determines who gets tested rather than the doctors.
theResident
I have quoted you the number for January to March without any qualification - As you requested from AgentX above. All death is awful - period, I am not trying to make light of this in anyway at all. But if the revised number is +152 due to deaths from COVID-19, then don't you think Tokyo has actually got away very lightly in the VERY big picture. In turn I'd like to know the demographic of these extra deaths. I would offer an opinion that deaths from simple accidents are probably down a lot more than 152 with little traffic on the roads, much of Industrial Production closed down etc.
drlucifer
I hope you are aware the MHLW 5 days ago corrected upwards the number of deaths for Tokyo from COVID-19 from 19 deaths to 171 deaths.
This massive correction raises eyebrows. The low number had gone unnoticed and if hadn't been corrected it could have gone unnoticed.
Hope the correction is reflected in the number you quoted.
i@n
Agree. Even if we assume all the alleged incompetence and corruptions are true, the govt and Japan are still far more ready now than 4months ago.
Then, very little was known about the virus, and everyone was woefully unprepared.
But Japan fared well compared to many countries.
So with what's known now and all the developments, there should be more cause for optimism than worry.
theResident
There are a lot of things that this Goverment is capable of doing to distort the truth / have 'quasi-lockdowns' / certainly not test enough - but the death rate cannot be distorted. There were 33.106 deaths in Tokyo, January - March. Thats actually 0.4% lower than the last 4 years average. There is no 'excess' death here.
Mirai - I agree with a lot you said 2 months ago, but it hasn't come to be - Your hysterics are becoming very tiring. Lets keep things the way they are in Tokyo for 2 more weekends. IF there is no dramatic spike in the infection rate , its time to open up the economy . Other countries which have dealt with this quite well, Germany for example still has a pretty high infection rate you know - and they are starting to get on with life. Many countries have accepted that there will be a second spike at some point. How much longer do you suggest that we drive the Economy completely into the ground to the point where it will literally be permanently damaged. Please accept that even if there is another spike we will NOT have a complete lockdown here.
At this point, with the knowledge we now have about this awful virus, do you not think that some of us can use our own common sense and take sensible risk. If you wish to self islolate then please do - I would certainly not criticise anyone for it. If you wish to shop - taken the most sensible precautions you can - if you wish to eat out then choose wisely.
If you are waiting for a vaccine that is safe, effective and available to all - then I'm sorry, but you are probably going to have to wait 5 years. This Virus is not going away anytime soon and we will have to adapt.
Mirchy
I believe your government is aware of the economic blow to the citizens, so it is also likely to introduce mitigation measures where possible.
From here, however, the collective consciousness of the citizens themselves will play a major role.
drlucifer
Data pls.
i@n
Ah it's probably the count for the whole country that I've read about
i@n
Thats good news. The last I've read about it, it's said to be about the same
AgentX
In Tokyo, this year, there have been fewer overall deaths, to date, than this time last year...
drlucifer
Eh low fatality rate, are you privy to data on death for Feb to April ?
Can you please share with us.
https://mainichi.jp/articles/20200511/k00/00m/010/191000c
Even the minister of Mhlw wasn't aware that the number of deaths for Tokyo had been changed from 19 to 171
Video link below of the news
https://news.tv-asahi.co.jp/news_society/articles/000183636.html
Objective
klausdorthToday 11:44 am JST
" ..... percentage of people they are willing to lose to Covid ...."
Same thinking and consideration if it was your family members?
Please answer this then...How many deaths do we shut the economy down for? 1, 100, 1000, 10000? There has to be a number.
We accept 3500 annual traffic deaths in Japan without taking the right to drive away from the public.
Coincidentally, we accept 3500 annual flu deaths in Japan and that is WITH a vaccine.
Japan has lost 678 to Covid to date. This virus has been here for 4.5 months. The average GENERAL age of death is about the same as the age of death with those with Covid.
You can be pragmatic and compassionate at the same time.
DaDude
OK, do tell about the mobs of people that were out and about during GW since you seem to know.
Cameron
Monty...
It's true that the longer the lock down goes on, the harder it will be for people to live. But this is what the GOVERNMENT is meant to stop from happening. In other words, the government needs to financially support everyone who needs it. We all pay taxes, yet no support has been given (very little at least). My juku received ¥50,000 as support from the Sapporo government. ¥50,000!!! That's it! So now, my manager is saying we need to reopen from next week because they don't have a choice. What I'm trying to say is that if the GOVERNMENT did their job and actually supported people, giving them the ability to STAY HOME, all of this wouldn't be a problem.
AgentX
This is neither the US nor Italy.
However, I'll bite anyway...
There are obviously other factors at play there. On top of that, the lockdown hasn't even helped them.
Some theories for the New York numbers revolve around the fact that 40% of Americans are obese and live unhealthy lifestyles.
Another !!theory!! points to a possible link between flu vaccinations, causing a compromise in the ability to fight COVID-19.
Its evident that the media has also done a splendid job of blowing the whole thing there out of proportion in most countries, not least the US. Clicks and likes!
But the mainstream media (and people who only source the news from mainstream media) is not ready to have those conversations yet. Scientists are not even able to bring this stuff up, or research it, for fear of being attacked.
Ether way, bringing up the worst examples in the world does not apply directly to Japan.
Probable One
One only needs to look at the messes most of the rest of the world are in to know they were absolutely correct. By implementing a national emergency that outcome was prevented.
Fortunately people here obeyed the rules and the numbers fell greatly, whereas in the US where people are protesting it (with guns) they are barely going down and lockdown needs to continue.
Now you're not wrong in that the country needs to re-open, Japan won't hit zero cases, it did a good job with contact tracing, and as such there were three months between first case and national emergency, longer than most places. Now public awareness is higher and the country is more prepared; realistically contract tracing should be enough for some time, but the emergency was the right call, cases were spiking, as we can see from the graphs of every country that was later implementing it.
As for your other links about the death rate, other studies have shown there is no widespread outbreak that has been missed; contained cases like the diamond princess are a good indicator of the real mortality rate in ideal circumstances when health care isn't overwhelmed and all cases are caught early (about 1% death rate); but without action that number rises drastically as not everyone can receive the care they need.
Tom
Like the rest of the world, Japan is eyeing a "re-opening" (was it ever really closed?) of the country and the economy. As a developed nation, it is no wonder.
However, unlike most of the rest of the world, Japan is trying to do so on a pseudo-scientific and completely uninformed basis, which is strange given the capabilities of a developed country. Indeed a very strange and very risky strategy.
Furthermore, the highly ambiguous state of emergency seems to have created large gaps in people's understanding of the implications of the state of emergency in the first place. Many people have taken it to the extreme and have been able to confine themselves in their homes for weeks or months while others have made no efforts in changing their lives whatsoever.
Therefore a "re-opening" is also very ambiguous - especially without a phase plan for when, where and what is supposed to open and what a successful gradual opening looks like. So far this seems to be lacking or at least it is not communicated. It appears that the Japanese government is seriously on the back foot with things.
Whatsnext
Everyone saying the numbers will increase. Yeah because they changed the criteria for the testing.
carpslidy
Why? Where has a lockdown eliminated the virus?
Europe, the US, China havent eliminated the virus, so why would Japn be different?
N.z appear to have almost eliminated the virus at least for now, yet they havent opened up.
Monty
@Yoshisan88
But we cannot allow our fear of going backwards from stopping us from going forwards
I 100% agree with that sentence!
And welcome to Japan in 2021!
bass4funk
Here is the kicker, once they make the deflation is over, be prepared for a massive gargantuan swamp of the malls and every store and park, people won’t be wearing masks and social distancing will be a thing of the past, no phased easing into things or school, just random, “it’s over,” go back to work.
Just watch.
Mirai Hayashi
@carpslidy
It's really interesting how you twisted the logic to make it sound like that a lockdown doesn't make sense. I would argue that a true lockdown would have gotten us through this much faster and we'd probably be in much better shape to reopen by now if it had been done right. Instead we are taking half measures and the numbers had been (are probably still are) bouncing up and down.
Here are the real facts, we don't know the number of people who have antibodies, because we have not officially begun testing for antibodies. Secondly, we could be at 50%, but it doesn't mean a thing, because we still know so little about this virus (according to Dr. Fauci), hence reinfection is entirely possible even with the antibodies. And even if, the antibodies do fight off a second infection, we now know that there are multiple mutations of this virus, so if you have antibodies for one strain, it most likely won't protect you from other strains.
Bottom line is we still know nothing, so we need to be absolutely care not to cause a second wave.
kohakuebisu
If the number of affected could be far higher, as in twenty times higher, I'm afraid all that signifies is that what's going around Japan is not as deadly as was thought for the vast majority of people. It then becomes an issue of treating those who do get sick and protecting those at risk from it through self-isolation by them, not everyone else.
One notable aspect of the measures so far in Japan is that there have been no special instructions to old people as an at risk group. There is no point in a family of four being stuck all day in a tiny Tokyo apartment with the parents trying to work and keep the kids occupied if some 80-year-old heavy smoking granddad is still going to the pub.
yoshisan88
About a week ago, when Scott Morrison announced the 3 stage plan to reopen Australia by July, he said the following:
There will be outbreaks, there will be more cases, there will be setbacks. Not everything will go to plan ... But we cannot allow our fear of going backwards from stopping us from going forwards.
"You know, you can stay under the doona forever and you'll never face any danger, but we've gotta get out from under the doona at some time."
I wish Japan the best of luck and I look forward to my next visit to Japan (hopefully in late 2021).
noriahojanen
Whether or not you agree with the earlier opening, freedom and choice are on your side. You're basically free to continue to lock yourself down if and whenever feeling life-threatened. Not to mention, we are highly diverse and unique in physio-and social environment. There is no universal course of action applicable to anyone.
Not surprising, as I even assume the number may be 50-100 times as larger than actually confirmed. But it also suggests a very low fatality rate for covid-19. Besides, we don't have to seek actual numbers by counting all individual cases. In public health, the numbers are inferred from sampled datasets.
half-hearted jumper
Perhaps not a full lock down - but I suspect that's true of all of Japan. There was definitely a "slow down", and a lot of people practicing social distancing/caution. Not all tho'.
Monty
@Mirai Hayashi
If we knew that the numbers are real and that they are truly going doing down
How will you ever know that?
In each country in the world, the numbers told to the public come from the government, right?
Are these numbers true? I don't know! Are the numbers in USA, Germany, China, Russia true? I don't know!
I have to trust and believe the numbers the government is telling me.
If I don't believe these numbers I have to lockdown myself in my house for the rest of my life until my paranoia or my isolated life is killing me.
half-hearted jumper
So... extrapolating that: NYC, the US and Italy - it's all a lie?
carpslidy
@Mirai
Today it was reported 5% of Spain has the antibody so you can presume
A)the number is far higher in Japan as we didnt lockdown, and thus the virus isnt as deadly.
Or
B) a similar % of Japanese have the antibody, as lockdowns are ineffective at stopping the spread.
Or
C) a lower percentage of Japanese have the antibody, as lockdowns increase the spread
Eitherway, a lockdown doesn't make sense.
Objective
Very positive news. Japanese society needs to unabashedly agree to the percentage of people they are willing to lose to Covid while continuing on with their lives in the safest way that doesn't close businesses and bankrupt its citizens.
Akie
It is the govt responsibility to protect the people who voted you into the office. As long as you are not willingly doing wrong things, then, as a sovereign govt, Abe is entitled to make the decision.
Mirai Hayashi
We keep saying this because there is still too much uncertainty, and not enough transparancy by the government. If we new that the numbers are real and that they are truly going doing down, then we can say, let's open on this date....and say it with confidence.
Monty
Let's see what happens in June, let's see what happens in July, let's see what happens in August...
Oh I forgot, let's see what happens in 2 weeks.
fillmore2
if you have that much confidence in your government, yes, go ahead open up,
many of you agree that's it's about time, so be it, get back to your normal lives,
let's see what happens in June,
No Business
Here in Fukuoka there was never a true lockdown to begin with. What a farce.
vanityofvanities
Defeat of Science and Medicine. Isolation and social distancing are the only ways we can do now. I feel I am living in the middle age. Yet, we have to restart economy. We cannot continue lockdown forever. Medicine being used are chosen from the ones already existing for other sicknesses. Entity of the coronavirus is still not understood.
Mirai Hayashi
Yes, and this is truly a big issue. However, reopening prematurely, puts us at a bigger risk of having a second wave, and wider range of infections. Understand what reopening the economy means. It also means reopening our boarders to tourism, which can bring in and let out asymptomatic people who don't know that they are infected, potentially reintroducing the virus throughout Japan and Asia. It means reopening night life businesses (bars, pubs, red light, etc) which will bring people in closer contact with each other. It will instill a false sense of security that its all over, and people will stop taking the proper precautions necessary (social distancing, wearing masks, etc) to slow down the spread.
Unless we know for certain that the numbers are coming down or going to be at a level where the healthcare industry can manage them without being overwhelmed, then you can't say we are ready to reopen. You think that the economy is hard hit now? A second wave will be decimate the economy, because 1. we will need to close down yet again, and probably for a longer period of time. And 2. Even when this all really does blow over, consumer confidence will be really low, and people will be psychologically damaged and skeptical that things are really safe. THIS is what will really cause a great depression type scenario, which will take years if not a decade or more to recover from.
The best thing to do is to do a REAL lockdown and wait until we are for certain the the numbers of infected are manageable so that the healthcare industry is able to treat it as if we were treating the common flu, and then reopen cautiously to ensure that there is no relapse. Google "Spanish flu second wave" and you'll realize why we should avoid a second wave at all costs.
Monty
@Mirai Hayashi and all other posters who don't agree to lift the restrictions
I understand your points, but...
What do you suggest to do?
Complete Lockdown and shutdown all businesses, shops, restaurants, companies, Nobody is allowed to leave the house, just stay inside your 4 walls?
Until a vaccination is a found? (in probably a year or so?)
People loosing jobs, can not pay rents, maybe don't know how to pay food, don't how to feed their family and kids...are you aware of that too or do you just count numbers and tests?
i@n
Lol your comment probably prevented people from posting exactly that, but there are variations
noriahojanen
Mirai
You better learn the basic reproduction number (R), a key indicator to assess virus situations. In Japan across almost all prefectures, R has stayed below 1, some below 0.5 since April. Means, a wider outbreak is highly unlikely (unless some deadly type is "imported" from overseas). Other "reopening" countries in Europe based its policy recourse upon this number.
Taro
@Mirai hayashi
My bad. It’s good to clear that up for the people who are less risk adverse on here. Lifting the state of emergency too early is basically doing this. The government is indirectly transferring the risk to the people who take the risk of going back to work asap. Therefore putting lives at risk due to indirect risks of infecting death others. Trouble is it’s all good staying home but eventually most working people will run out money to survive. As the government hasn’t even handed out money in 4 months the people under most financial pressure will be forced to take the risk of going to work to pay rent.
i@n
The rational thing for the govt to have done to save the Olympics would be to try to contain the epidemic as best they can.
Fudging the numbers will not do that.
rgcivilian1
Aichi, Kyoto and Fukuoka to the list of areas set to see a lifting of the state of emergency declared. 39 of the country's 47 prefectures to live with fewer constraints. Plans to lift the state of emergency in 34 prefectures. Ibaraki and Gifu, which have been designated as requiring "special caution. Aichi, Kyoto and Fukuoka, among 13 prefectures bearing the special status, may be added to the list, Hokkaido, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Osaka and Hyogo are expected to remain under the state of emergency. People urged to refrain from making nonessential outings and many businesses asked to shorten their opening hours or stay shut. Establishment of a system of cooperation between the central and prefectural governments on maintaining medical services capable of swiftly carrying out polymerase chain reaction tests.
Wallace Fred
Thanks Alfie. More brave voices such as these are sorely needed.
AgentX
You say this, but let me guess, you also talk about the lack of testing - which means the R-0 value is far lower than 2.2!
The German virologist puts the morbidity rate far lower than 1%, which, when you think about it, rings far more true than the fear being spread around by the average commentator. The threat is nowhere remotely near worthy of forced national lockdowns. The lockdowns are breaking so many more people than 'the threat'.
https://youtu.be/vrL9QKGQrWk
littlebear
This would be a terrible mistake. Hospitals likely need 6 - 8 months to clear this up. It's a terrible situation, but people going back to work with a R- Naught value still at 2.2 would be incredibly damaging. Japan would not recover.
Mirai Hayashi
This statement alone tells me that you don't get it. There is no such thing as "at your OWN risk". If you get infected, you are also putting the people who are around you (family, friends, etc) at risk. And every time you take public transportation to work, you are also putting your co-workers and their families at risk.
This is absolutely correct. At first the numbers were fudged in fear of cancellation of the Olympics. Now its because the government is being pressured to reopen the economy. If the government was REALLY transparent about the numbers, they would publish the percentage of the number of people infected out of the number of people ACTUALLY tested.
kwatt
It seems Japan is looking for semi-herd-immunity, that's why they don't test many people, It seems so far good because not many people die from the virus. If people are tested positive and hospitalized with good medicine, most patients would be recovered well but they will never get antibody (kinda self-medicine) and will soon worry 2nd, 3rd,,,, coronavirus pandemic in the near future. In Sweden, they are making whole herd immunity there but many people die from it so far, however they will not worry much about next and next pandemic in the future after they survived. If 60% of people have antibody, 40% who don't have it don't get infected easily.
JCosplay
Very good point AgentX. Never thought about it like that.
kurisupisu
And when government run centers refuse to test doctor referrals then that ‘condition’ just won’t be met....
JCosplay
@Yubaru I’m positive that going back to exactly the way things were, at least just yet, is what’s gonna happen. What’s going to happen is that there will be much fewer restrictions. The keyword being, fewer.
Alfie Noakes
Dr. Shigeru Omi (the doctor in charge) recently admitted they have no idea how many people are actually infected with covid-19. He said it could be 10, 15 or 20 times the number they believe now.
https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20200511-OYT1T50181/
Taro
We get it! Far be it for the government to take away the choice of people not scared of the virus for various reasons! Everyone knows the risk and if they take them it’s at their own risk. Unfortunately, the underlying legislation issue for the government (that they still aren’t addressing just parking with this workaround move). Basically, the government would be liable directly for loss of income for infections and deaths (¥100M liable per death). Therefore, they’ve calculated it’s cheaper for them to payout ¥100,000 “for all” every 4 months.
I agree that people should be able to go to work at their own risk. Unfortunately there’s hidden issues that the government is still hiding. This could work as the fearful will not go to work as early but shouldn’t stop the people who choose to go to work asap.
Wallace Fred
What does it say about a country that posits freedom of expression when actual experts are afraid to speak out about, you know, facts?
Wallace Fred
Science literally cares not for your feelings. This comment for sure will not age well.
Cosmos1
Okay let's not do makeup fallacies .... When I compare SARS outbreak 2002 _ 20004 to todays situation here's my Vatic for the next 4 years.. " 65% of long term foreigners in Japan today will leave Japan for social welfare payments in their own home country.
AgentX
I get tired of hearing this.
If everyone was tested, the mortality rate for COVID19 would come down so far that even the most fear prone commentators would've questioning the lockdowns.
Its time to put your critical thinking abilities to work, people!
rainyday
I was one of them and I’m very happy to have been proven wrong. I hope it stays that way. My general feeling has moved from “worry” to “cautious optimism”.
That is true, but they also probably played a role in avoiding a disaster here of the kind that hit the US and Europe.
Mirai Hayashi
Just because YOUR neighborhood was a ghost town, doesn't mean that everyone in the country was staying home.
First of all the incubation period for Covid19 is 2 to 17 days (depending on which site you read). Hence, those who may be infected probably won't know that they have been infected for at least a few days.
And I keep saying this but a lot of people a still missing how a virus spreads. It takes only one (1) infected person to spread it to many. Case in point, there was only 1 known infected person in the US in January, and now there are over a million with over 80,000 dead.
One infected person on a bus with 50 people aboard can potentially infect all 50. Then those 50 will come into contact with 50+ other people and potentially infect them, and so on and so forth....get it now? That's why I am saying to wait for the post GW numbers to come in, and see if the # of infected will still stay below 100.
AgentX
Its about time.
Those who were talking about huge spikes in numbers of deaths months ago were clearly. VERY. Wrong!
You..! Had your '5 minutes' now it's time to accept that your fear-based narrative grows more irrelevant with each passing day.
The lockdowns ARE causing mass damage to the Japanese economy and mental health of its citizens/residents.
Cosmos1
We never had this back in the days of S.A.R.S https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Serrano
My area looked like a ghost town during the golden week.
Economy is taking a huge hit.
As soon as you relax and open things up you'll see the numbers increasing again
That's it then. We're on permanent lockdown. Say good bye to any kind of decent life.
sensei258
As soon as you relax and open things up you'll see the numbers increasing again
Monty
@Mirai Hayashi
Why wait for the GW infection numbers?
Almost nobody was traveling and almost all shops were closed during the GW.
Most of the people stayed at Home.
My area looked like a ghost town during the golden week.
It is time to bring life back to normal.
But if someone is worried, everyone is free to do his own lockdown at home for weeks or months. Nobody is forced to go out to parks or eat at Izakaya or go to shopping malls.
Mirai Hayashi
So we're not even going to wait to see if anyone was infected during GW? Too soon...oh boy, brace for impact.
Taro
With intentionally limited testing means inaccurate lowering case numbers. Wealth and government jobs over citizens/residents health here!
Sounds good, the main population cities aren’t have their state of emergency lifted though. Makes it super tempting for people to visits or temporarily move to these cities right?
carpslidy
We must abandon calendars, its the only way to safe " from in two weeks "
Yubaru
It's good news to hear, but just "opening" things up like nothing ever happened is NOT the way to go!
nothisrealname
oldman_13
I agree, but still a bit scary!
oldman_13
Good, it's time to recover the economy.
Enough damage has been done.