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© KYODOAbe says schools to reopen after spring break; remains cautious about big events
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TedSales
How did they get those protective face masks?
JJ W
I dunno, even after accounting for the cultural aspect of Japanese being orderly and well-mannered, the entirety of Tokyo metro (~40 million people) having only "over 100 cases" just seems like an absolute statistical impossibility to me. Given that there's still a shortage of masks in the area, people must be hyper-vigilant about washing their hands, religiously staying 6 feet away from others in public, and not touching their faces at all.
Taro
Spreading is the key point here. Once children meet at school it doesn’t take an Expert to realise that instead of a small minority of children spreading it this will lead to exponential increases when large groups get together. Suppression is important so by avoiding mass gatherings by not re-opening schools prematurely is the lowest risk option.
Everything else will increase the risk of more seniors getting infected, consequently overwhelming the hospitals and their staff. No-one wants to be accountable for that do they? Unless they want blood on their hands...
Taro
“Eternal Optimist” is not the first character type that springs to mind for a responsible and sensible Japanese person. If the Japanese PM is being more realistic he knows that it’s a very high risk strategy re-opening schools before the infections has stopped or all cases have been entirely stopped. If the cases increase exponentially after re-opening then as it’s at least 1 year away from a vaccine that’s a mistake waiting to happen.
Bruce Chatwin
Some private unis are going online, but the public unis appear to be toeing the govt line and holding classes as usual.
Bruce Chatwin
According to that reasoning there should be no COVID-19 in Australia, Malaysia, Brazil, California, or Florida.
bass4funk
When this thing blows wide open and from the rate it’s spreading around the world, is Japan ready? Do they have enough respirators, will they hand out FREE test kits, what is their plan B? Do they even have a backup plan?
oyatoi
Unfortunately for your theory, Ground Zero in hygiene insufficiency is where I happen to live. Gotta love the reverse snobbery though.
gogogo
So Abe is willing to risk the lives of the elderly by allowing this?
macv
My professor friends in USA all teaching from home using Zoom for online teaching, while Japanese Min of Education tells me they don't have distance learning, a few random high schools do it independently but there is no list or database of those schools.
garypen
One would hope that those Kanto masks would keep the snobbery from spewing out of their mouths. No such luck, apparently.
James Stowe
Japan does seem to be doing ok. People in the UK have turned into animals quite quickly looking at the news reports.
finto
Too many criticisms on here, I don’t think Japan has done badly at all, and it’s the same people that has been in charge since day one, why can’t we trust them for once? Many weeks ago some were bragging on here as to how the CDC would have reacted well to the Diamond princess situation but now we all see what’s happening every where as most countries get their share of the situation, for me Japan’s approach has worked for Japan, I can’t complain, I’ll rather stay positive and do what I must do to help contain the situation
runner3
This will turnout to be a criminal decision!
macv
while rest of world is doing distance learning using internet apps japan is floundering in 100 year old idiotic mindset poor Japanese citizens have to endure ancient geezers ruing their lives
Taro
Wow! For the most risk adverse country in the world IMO, this decision is totally out of character!
Shouldn’t it be “Safety First”? This is more economy first and the mountain of pressure from the parents who have little or no child care support from the government’s failure to invest and build this infrastructure for years and years. Logically, this is a mistake that to me shows the government is at the end of its tether or more worryingly they indirectly are showing that they don’t care anymore and are looking at this as a perfect way out from their dire position. It’s obvious no more wants to be in their shoes at the moment.
ulysses
I hope this is a right step, the data doesn't prove otherwise .
There's a big risk in new cases from returnees out of Europe and the US, if that is monitored closely we should be fine.
oyatoi
People in Osaka wear masks as a preventive measure, so as not to get infected by the many there who ignore elementary hygiene. In the Kanto, however, a mask wearer is more likely to be someone who is conscious of elementary hygiene and concerned about not spreading germs to others.
carpslidy
@zilch
Thank you,
jonesS
@AlexBecu, you havent lived in Japan long, have you? People wash their hands here about the same amount they touch each other.
drlucifer
Can you provide us with data to support your assertion.
How reliable will be the data from a source that still maintains the handling of the cruise ship was correct, has a history of document alteration and shredding.
Well just because one is not expert on something should not be a deterrent for one to self judge.
carpslidy
@zichi
G my wife is currently undergoing chemo for cancer.
The doctors always tell us to be positive
Survial rate not morality rate is used to reduce fear.
Yet morality rate is used to disuss corona thus stoking fear,
Bruce Chatwin
In 2014, a professor at Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine wrote:
"Autopsies in Japan are performed on only 1.6% of all deaths, the lowest rate among developed countries. Cause of death is almost always determined by simple visual inspection, as it was 100 years ago."
https://www.nature.com/articles/507306e?fbclid=IwAR1qofBrdGHs_7Fw2dQML0iI89aG1Izde8A7x3w7zKo6SlGtxbz5v29STvA
In a 2011 Japan Today Kuchikomi article:
"Why can’t more bodies be autopsied? It boils down basically to a question of manpower. Experts are few and thinly scattered across the country. As of now, nationwide, only 170 are fully qualified to perform autopsies, and more than half of those are professors of forensic medicine for whom doing autopsies is a sideline. Some prefectures have only one qualified medical investigator."
https://japantoday.com/category/features/kuchikomi/japans-autopsy-rate-woefully-low
anon99999
Meanwhile anyone had a look at the videos from Italy? Or what is developing in the rest of Europe which looks like being similar very soon?
Why does Japan think they can avoid this on the grounds of their limited restricted testing and half hearted attempts to slow the thing and even go so far as to reduce those attempts?
Lemmings walking over the cliff and Unfortunately I am being forced into the queue.
Jake Barnes
Regarding autopsies and cases of pneumonia not being tested for Covid 19, here is Akira Nagatsuma, former health minster in the Kan cabinet:
国内で肺炎患者の方は約7万人。肺炎でお亡くなりになる方は年間9万人を超える。肺炎の原因が特定できない方々に新型コロナウイルスのPCR検査の実施を徹底しているのか?感染ルートを遡り、感染源を見つけ出すために重要。検査能力と実際の検査数のギャップが大きすぎる。未だ検査体制が心配だ。
https://twitter.com/UnseenJapanSite/status/1241005295574241280
In other words, it's not a fringe conspiracy theory.
noriahojanen
@Kumagaijin
I think there is a basic guideline (originated from the seasonal flu case) at school: if one person gets infected, his/her class will shut down; if two or more confirmed positive, that school goes closed. A domino effect could happen when neighboring schools follow suit, a decision left to local school authorities.
Note that no school in Japan as well as other countries has formed a cluster.
A prejudice. We better make a balance and resume normal life smoothly. A global recession is near and likely, and it would kill a lot of people, regardless of age (it's not rhetoric, but hard facts). It is a public safety issue.
kokontozai
As usual, hospitals in Japan are very peaceful with few patients.
thepersoniamnow
Disillusioned
The examples you just gave are good enough.
I’m hoping for the best since the IC wards are not overflowing with covid-19 patients here.
Thats the best case scenerio as the virus cannot be stopped.
Speed
I wonder, as the weather gets warmer, is the spread is decelerating?
Disillusioned
Pardon? Could you be a little more specific about 'elsewhere' please? Perhaps not as many as Italy, but far more than Australia, New Zealand and many other countries.
Kumagaijin
Sounds like Abe is facing mounting pressure from stubborn, ill-informed people that typically complain about any inconvenience irregardless of risk or safety concerns. What happens when one student or one teacher falls ill with the virus? Do all schools shutdown again or just that specific school? Not a good strategy to play wack-a-mole with this virus, but its typical of the Japanese psyche to put business interests ahead of public safety. This could be much worse than Fukushima if a tsunami of Covid-19 cases drown the country. Its best to wait until after Golden Week to reopen schools in my opinion, but I understand that the stress of having children at home is much greater than the stress of a complete quarantine of the entire country...right?
mountaingrill
What about the recent article that predicts 3,000 cases in Kobe/Osaka at the beginning of April....the same time as the kids go back. Surely, surely this is not a good idea.
rainyday
If you think people don’t panic about cancer, you’ve obviously never had a scare or lost someone close to it.
Tora
I am guessing that what will happen is that pressure is going to come from around the world and this "gaiatsu" (external pressure) is going to compel Japan into finally implementing measures as introduced in most other places.
What does on in America has a huge impact here, and seeing one state after another close down, along with pressure heaped on Japan is going to be immense.
Ditto, the Olympics. Once America threatens to pulls out (and they will) , then it's finally over. All the Americans need to do is to say the word.
kwatt
Some men don't wash hands after urinating. I asked my friends about it. They answered they just touched part of my body like hair, head, face, hand,,,. but they will deliberately wash hands after excrement done and wash hands after they touched train rings, handrails,,,other dirty things that many people touch very often. Of course most people try to wash hands when they eat, Oshibori is a good thing.
Bruce Chatwin
They should, but odds are they won't.
At any given time, trains, offices, and classrooms are full of the walking sick. Very healthy. The walking sick may wear a mask, but they contaminate everything they touch. Also, maybe it's just a Kansai thing, but far too many people do not cover their mouths when they cough or sneeze. And no, they are not wearing masks.
Tokyo-Engr
@carpslidy - I believe you are talking about mortality rates. When Korea did their massive testing a few weeks ago and published data it appeared the case mortality rate was less than 0.5%.
I think the big issue related to this virus is how easy it spreads.
Right now Japan does not have a large enough data set to truly understand how much this has spread here.
OssanAmerica
Please provide a link to support your statement that "Those that(sic) die are not tested postmortem". People don't just simply die from catching COVID19, they die only when it leads to lower repiratory system issues which are observed and treated on their own.
"The woman fell ill in January but only later showed symptoms of pneumonia and was hospitalised, then transferred to another hospital when her condition worsened. Her infection with the coronavirus confirmed after her death, Kato said. The route of contagion was being investigated."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-japan-ship/japan-records-first-coronavirus-death-two-taxi-drivers-test-positive-idUSKBN20708N
carpslidy
Cancer patients have survival rates
Yet Corona virus has morality rates
Change 2% morality to 98'% survival and no one would be panicking
Jake Barnes
I hope that all the masks, the lack of hugs or the great intake of miso soup has miraculously made Japan alone immune to a larger outbreak. But for right now, I'll listen to the world's scientific consensus and the WHO, who continues to say test test test. Japan alone is an outlier in this regard.
Here's Asahi with the same numbers I saw yesterday on a Jiji wire story:
I hope all the magical thinkers are proven right and I'm wrong. I live in Hyogo and the crowds at malls like Umie in Kobe have been crowded in recent days. And not everyone is wearing a mask probably b/c they're hard to find.
I'm not going to condemn people for going out. If the other shoe drops, it's Abe and co. who deserve our ridicule, for their opaque, contradictory and hard to find information. If the above is the worst case situation in my region, if it's a realistic possibility per the health ministry, why in the world aren't far more stringent measures and pleas being made?
Tokyo-Engr
@Burning Bush
I cannot stand Abe and I believe the virus is a serious issue but I understand and agree with your post fully. It would be one heck of a hard job to have to make these decisions now.
that person
@AlexBecu
And many disadvantages; large population, small land; over cramming public transit; being forced to go to work, even if you’re on your death bed, to name a few
1 point for you (and japan)
ok, we’ll give you 2 points
meanwhile, in many other countries, people would just stay home, and recover
Ummm, no. Just no.
and also had an extremely mild winter, so no points.
The Coronavirus is here. They’re just not testing people. Don’t be fooled by rainbows and butterflies.
Be careful out there
rainyday
It feels like this is a massive risk right now, given that every other country in the world is imposing much stricter controls rather than relaxing existing ones.
I’ll be very happy if my fears are proven unfounded and Japan gets through this lightly, but will be extremely mad if the government relaxing its vigilance leads to further outbreaks.
noriahojanen
@JapanBliss,
There has been no single case of a cluster taking form or outbreak at school, not only in Japan but elsewhere ... or show me if you know any. I still find nationwide school shutdown ineffective; if insisting, better shut down all public places and services to minimize human mobility of the entire population, not merely school kids.
Pukey2
Gambaru:
Looking at that photo, the custom of being in a big, tight crowd is not one of those advantages. You would not catch me being in a crowd like that.
The trains are still crowded, I've been told.
Disillusioned
That's an interesting photo. So much for social distancing avoiding crowds, hey?
thepersoniamnow
Hey I agree with those who say they arent testing enough.
But there are not large amounts of elderly ill or dying such as elsewhere. It is also kind of showing that the virus is affecting Japan in another way that Europe and the States.
Mass testing everyone is also what NOT to do if you don’t want to overwhelm your own system.
And don’t tell me that Japan does autopsies on only 3% like some were claiming earlier. You still need a reason of death by the coroner, and I think Corona Virus deaths would be investigated.
noriahojanen
@JapanBliss
Your description is too simple and misleading. Similar screening process is widely adopted by many other countries as well. People with symptoms can be fast-tracked to serious diagnosis and care. "Go home" or self-isolation is also plausible advice.
Doubt. Patients in hospitals must definitely be virus-checked before they are admitted; for what mostly frightens medical staff is an in-house outbreak which would paralyze the entire healthcare services. They have become super-sensitive these days. Only if someone die outside a hospital mysteriously, a postmortem is conducted...but that's more exceptional and minimal in number. Besides as pneumonia is not acute, such is highly unlikely (as people dying of pneumonia end up at hospital)
rcch
the man’s a fool for wanting to close schools just for the sake of doing something. ( and the logic of it, ( to make it work ) if they want to shut down schools, they have to shut down everything, or at least, more than just schools ). and it came out of nowhere, people were not expecting it and many parents were caught off guard. now he wants to reopen schools like nothing happened. still gonna be risky out there. so yeah basically the man’s ( still ) a fool.
kwatt
Children seem no problem but elderly get worse. I heard not many children get serious from the first outbreak, however keep washing hands and wearing mask for a while.
Akie
Be extremely cautious, Abe. Envy makes people viciours.
dbsaiya
No testing, no new infections to report, and no bad news. Bring on the Olympics!
Yrral
The Olympic are toast
zatoizugoodo
Bad decision, after indecision, after bad decision. The virus will spread and reopening schools will ensure it. Even places like those four letter eikaiwa are reopening and will make their own masks to top it off! Insanity.
GranKikou
While so many countries around the world are totally closing down EVERYTHING, japans takes it easy.... CONGRATULATIONS ! (Sarcastic)
Like most of you say... not watching the worldwide news, carrying about Olympic (which is good as dead, since nobody is attending)
(My political opinion is to take down Abe... to old to think about the health of the populations! I take example on Prime Minister Mr. Bettel (Luxemburg):
"I don’t care about the government money, I do care about the health of our population!")
AlexBecu
Japan has built in advantages in the culture which has helped with this virus not spreading.
People don't shake hands.
Less hugging and kissing random strangers.
Wearing face mask when sick or symptoms begin.
Washing of hands which Japanese do more than others before this virus even started.
fun fact even the common flu is at a low level this year in Japan, hasn't been this low since 2003).
Chottobaka
Second, and more pervasive, wave coming in 3, 2, 1...
noriahojanen
Circumstances are widely different across regions. Local leaders, not the central government should decide whether an event is held, postponed, or cancelled.
Despite a positive sign of development, complacency is still dangerous. People should continue to behave with caution, especially elderly citizens.
JapanBliss
Japan is reportedly using one-sixth of its total testing capacity.
The relatively low number of COVID-19 cases in Japan is likely due to limited testing.
Despite having cases detected earlier than most countries worldwide, Japan has seemingly not been overrun by the coronavirus.
This may lead to a "false sense of security" that could cause the virus to spread more rapidly than it has so far in Japan.
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-japan-cases-of-coronavirus-are-so-low-2020-3
JapanBliss
Abe must not have a TV or access to world news. Infection rates can only increase in these regions with little spread. Other countries, even countries as large as Australia with even less infection numbers are being far more cautious and are even closing borders. The medical panels recommend schools where children sit less than a meter away from each other should reopen ahead of the predicted global peak in May/June? I often wonder about the qualifications of doctors in Japan.
Japan has not dodged the bullet. It is simply in denial because the infection rates are under reported. People cannot get through on the hotline and are unable to get tested. They are told to go home. Those that die are not tested postmortem and so death rates are also underreported.
Most private universities have postponed their semesters until May which will even most likely be pushed back further when the peak hits. National schools and universities however will resume classes. This will surely cause a huge spike in numbers shortly after. The death of many will be on Abe’s hands.
geronimo2006
Playing with fire and I don't mean the Olympic one. Opening schools is very risky while undertesting - underreporting especially in the urban areas anytime soon. What did they say.
Sounds exactly like most school classrooms. Loved the pic. At least most of them were wearing masks. Expect more clusters soon.
thepersoniamnow
So the government is really betting that the worst has come and gone.
If they re open everything, and then there’s a problem...they should step down.
thepersoniamnow
Logic meets reality in a whole new way during the Corona era.