Gov't estimate shows record decline of Japanese nationals as of October 2024

About to get a LOT worse fast, as Post WWII baby boom start to fade away in big numbers, as births continue to steadily drop, facing their own cliff in the 2030's as women of childbearing age shrinks rapidly.

Native depopulation will soon more than double above #'s, even potentially triple sometime in 1930's, so larger numbers off a smaller base, equals massive % declines

So, did the government began the costly, difficult and long process to make the full social changes necessary to solve this? or are they going to give a cash handout and expect to work this time?

Not to worry. Within a decade or so the population pyramid will be well on its way to perfect historical equilibrium due to new government policy that prioritizes worklife balance, green spaces for families and large family support payouts.

@virusrex

What social changes do you have in mind?

Gov't estimate shows record decline of Japanese nationals as of October 2024

Who'll pay those elderly pension and health insurance, the one who really paid are healthy and productive foreigners which being underpaid. That really rarely being mentioned by JGovt.

The gov seems to be a deer caught in headlights when it comes to this issue. They just seem to want to kick the can down the road and hope someone in the future comes up with a solution.

Aly RustomToday  08:01 am JST

The gov seems to be a deer caught in headlights when it comes to this issue. They just seem to want to kick the can down the road and hope someone in the future comes up with a solution

Declining population is not a problem in itself, forever growing is not possible, sustainable or even desirable.

Government and local areas need to take steps to take this into account, means schools will be consolidated, services rolled back and so on.

Population will stabilise at some lower value, let’s say 80 million in 20 years.

Population will stabilise at some lower value, let’s say 80 million in 20 years.

This is a fallacy. In order for the population to stabilize the fertility rate needs to go up. It isn't. It's going down.

Government and local areas need to take steps to take this into account, means schools will be consolidated, services rolled back and so on.

Which will further the urbanization of Japan causing the acceleration in the dropping of the fertility rate

What social changes do you have in mind?

Making parental leave mandatory (just "available" is not working with the current work culture), subsidizing and prioritizing child care services even if neighbors don't cooperate, 3-day weekends, extensive education to abolish the concept of women having to take care of the household on top of their own careers, requirement for diversity, inclusion and equity frameworks, revert the concentration in big cities by economically promoting the development of small cities, allowing teleworking as much as practically possible, etc. etc.

Is not really that much of a mystery, they are simply things that require prioritizing people above companies so quite unlikely to be done to a point where it makes a difference.

Declining population is not a problem in itself, forever growing is not possible, sustainable or even desirable.

Declining population as is happening in Japan is a problem in itself, because it is coming from the economically active population. A controlled, balanced decline is not a problem, but for Japan this is not possible until things get much worse first.

Population will stabilise at some lower value, let’s say 80 million in 20 years.

Which is still severely problematic since a much higher percentage of the population will require resources without producing them, so huge social problems are expected, a real "stabilization" will come decade later when the unbalance is corrected but that still means the country will have a very difficult time until then.

Nature rebalances everything. There may be a tough transition period, but eventually harmony will be restored.

Making parental leave mandatory (just "available" is not working with the current work culture), subsidizing and prioritizing child care services even if neighbors don't cooperate, 3-day weekends, extensive education to abolish the concept of women having to take care of the household on top of their own careers, requirement for diversity, inclusion and equity frameworks, revert the concentration in big cities by economically promoting the development of small cities, allowing teleworking as much as practically possible, etc. etc.

This sounds great on paper, but who is going to subsidise this?

When taking a rush-hour train in Tokyo does anyone feel that the population of Japan is declining?

Wages in Japan are pretty much stagnant whereas prices are increasing year-on-year. This is a stagflationary environment where growth cannot occur.

How are young people meant to plan for the future and to save money?

There is only a vicious spiral downwards…

This is what a dying nation looks like.

When taking a rush-hour train in Tokyo does anyone feel that the population of Japan is declining?

Thats part of the issue, the population has migrated to major cities for work, convenience, etc.

Perhaps the Japanese people have made the collective decision of conscious depopulation. Many feel that Japan is uncomfortably overcrowded.

It's going to be a big win for the environment, and those who love nature, more space and less competition for resources, food, infrastructure and jobs.

By 2050 Japan will need 10 million foreign workers paying taxes.

This sounds great on paper, but who is going to subsidise this?

The government, but instead is choosing to spend money in other things (like military development) somehow hoping the population disbalance problem will solve itself magically. Just a fraction of the ~9 trillion yen being used for the military budget would help tremendously in putting forward many of the necessary measures.

Sorry Japan, but I smuggled one out and our kid is very much American now over here.

The gov seems to be a deer caught in headlights when it comes to this issue. 

Actually, I think the government don't care because they are a bunch of rich oyajis who don't have to worry about where their next meal will come from.

@virusrex

Japan is not alone in having a low fertility rate. None of your suggestions seem to have worked anywhere. Babies just can't be bought.

Okinawa an Kyushu do not have a replacement level fertility rate but are about double the 0.9 rate in Tokyo.

The highest correlated factor in Japan with a higher fertility rate is not living in a ward.

Decentralizing might help and is worth a try. Most of the staff working in government ministries could be sent out to small towns.

BTW, both my daughter and her husband, living in a Tokyo suburb took parental leave. Most young men do these days.

Perhaps, glorifying the sanctity of motherhood would help instead of glorifying work.

Big open question remains how many immigrants will arrive and how established they will become, especially regarding citizenship, starting families etc.

Do not forget, rest of Asia, where most immigrants arrive from is also rapidly aging and becoming wealthier, meaning pool of potential immigrants to Japan shrinking

Finally, Japan's massive debt & demographic problems, currency weakness, pathway to citizenship very difficult in Japan. Collapsing populations are more difficult to 'sell' to potential immigrants, especially given above.

Above, huge factor why FDI, not financial but operating investment, by far lowest in G-7, due to demographic collapse of the already most elderly population in world.

When taking a rush-hour train in Tokyo does anyone feel that the population of Japan is declining?

Meanwhile, you can walk around the beautiful clean wide streets of downtown Tottori, Toyama, Aomori, Yamaguchi or even bigger capitals like Sendai or Nagoya and almost feel like the city was made for you, very few people walking around even during the rush-hour, which is a shame.

There is no doubt one of the main factors for the population decline is the centralization of everything in Tokyo, believe me, once you come from another prefecture you have to start your social life from scratch in a place where people barely talk to each other.

Relocating the Agency for Cultural Affairs from Tokyo to Kyoto was the clue for what has to be done on a large scale, to create incentives to make people actually inclined to think about moving to Ehime, Nagasaki or Yamanashi for a better life.

virusrex 09:24am - Exactly that.

> Actually, I think the government don't care because they are a bunch of rich oyajis who don't have to worry about where their next meal will come from.

YeahRight, you're right.

Japan is not alone in having a low fertility rate. None of your suggestions seem to have worked anywhere.

Where have these measures have been used without effect? any reference?

Babies just can't be bought.

But families can be given facilities to obtain full development even with children. Health "can't be bought" either, but a government heavily investing in public health ends up with better outcomes for the population in general, it is the same principle.

Okinawa an Kyushu do not have a replacement level fertility rate but are about double the 0.9 rate in Tokyo.

And they are not as concentrated as Tokyo, there are much less need for long commutes, much more space and resources for childcare with the support of the community, etc. etc. you are proving the point you are trying to refute.

The highest correlated factor in Japan with a higher fertility rate is not living in a ward.

Precisely, that is why reversing the over concentration is included as part of the measures. You are again just supporting what you began saying would not work.

Decentralizing might help and is worth a try. Most of the staff working in government ministries could be sent out to small towns.

But bureaucrats are a tiny minority of the population, full decentralization (to the point of making a difference) require longer, harder, pricier efforts.

BTW, both my daughter and her husband, living in a Tokyo suburb took parental leave. Most young men do these days.

Demonstrably false

https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h02079/

A minority of fathers are taking parental leave, and a significant percentage take only a few days (or a couple of weeks) at much. Compared with almost 90% of the women taking leave, with almost all taking more than 6 months it becomes clear the situation is completely uneven and explain why women are still under much higher pressure not to have children, since they are being forced to choose between their careers or having a family.

Perhaps, glorifying the sanctity of motherhood would help instead of glorifying work.

This is what is making the problem worse, women are expected to dedicate their lives to being mothers, sacrificing any kind of professional satisfaction. So those that cherish this personal development (or that need to work along with their husbands in order to survive) consider being a mother a luxury that can't be afforded.

A much more productive thing would be a deep, universal social change where men are given the same degree of responsibility and expected to dedicate as much as women to their children (with all the adjustments necessary to make this possible) so families don't need to depend on some manufactured sanctity of motherhood.

Who'll pay those elderly pension and health insurance, the one who really paid are healthy and productive foreigners which being underpaid. That really rarely being mentioned by JGovt.

What exactly are you talking about? The technical trainee employees don’t pay taxes.

Do you mean to say that the tax paying foreigners who make up 1% of the work force will take the heaviest blows from a pension system collapse?

Kanto area relatively stable, but aging rapidly, meanwhile rest of the country emptying out, especially up North, Shikoku and local areas in general at a very high rate.

Above, not pretty picture, question's how to stabilize, as otherwise brain and $capital drain continues unabated

If you minus the spending by tourists then you'll get the real picture of just how bad things are. The economy is Tokyocentric with the rest of the country basically depopulating.

Good point DeeZee, that's the hard reality and it's a slippery slope as infrastructure outside Tokyo area continues to 'de-grade' daily...

Kanto area relatively stable, but aging rapidly, meanwhile rest of the country emptying out, especially up North, Shikoku and local areas in general at a very high rate.

They're basically dumping the whole country into Tokyo area

https://uub.jp/pdr/j/inout.html

The government, but instead is choosing to spend money in other things (like military development) somehow hoping the population disbalance problem will solve itself magically. Just a fraction of the ~9 trillion yen being used for the military budget would help tremendously in putting forward many of the necessary measures.

Both of our youngest children get 220 hours of daycare /month free. That already seems like a pretty insane subsidy. No amount of subsidies is going to fix this mess. The whole of society needs to be upended.

If anything else is not working, remember there are more young women than men here and the rest of the world. Perhaps legalizing polygamy is a solution than any other way just a thought.

A 2% difference in numbers is not really that important for this, and if women need to abandon their jobs to raise kids that would mean much more difficulties for families with more than one wife, so the difference would only make things worse.

Both of our youngest children get 220 hours of daycare /month free. That already seems like a pretty insane subsidy.

When there is no place where you can use that free daycare (or you spend more time reaching it than using it) this is not really a solution. This needs to be complemented with opening spaces, giving caretakers good work conditions and salaries, preparation, insurance, infrastructure, etc.

No amount of subsidies is going to fix this mess

According to which expert change can happen without any kind of economic investment?

The whole of society needs to be upended.

And the easiest way to do it is to combine strict rules for workplaces to comply and with subsidies to make it possible. You can't simply force a company to give literally months of parental leave to a father without offering anything to keep that company functioning. The same for decentralizing, educating, etc. All takes money to do, not only time and effort.

@virusrex

The native born fertility rate in Finland is 1.3 and 1.26 in Canada and those countries and they have huge subsidies for families, mothers and fathers as well as a much more balanced work-life balance. They are also countries where men assume a much greater responsibility for raising children.

Also note: DEI has been a gigantic failure in Canada resulting in a falling GDP/capita.

The native born fertility rate in Finland is 1.3 and 1.26 in Canada and those countries and they have huge subsidies for families, mothers and fathers as well as a much more balanced work-life balance. 

In Finland the lowest fertility rates are in the segments of population with lower education and social security, complicating the fact that for many families the lack of children is not by choice (it has one of the highest percentages of births dependent on fertility treatments) and the social need for births is reduced since it has a much more permissive approach to immigration

Canada on the other hand has one of the best examples of how the measures actually help with Quebec importantly increasing the fertility rate thanks to the implementation of policies focused on the family.

So no, neither of the examples you brought help prove the claim that the measures have any effect, in fact Canada helps proving the opposite. You refuted your own claim.

They are also countries where men assume a much greater responsibility for raising children.

And do better the more this improves, I mean it is not like both countries are uniform so comparisons can't be made between regions with better or worse support for gender equality.

Also note: DEI has been a gigantic failure in Canada resulting in a falling GDP/capita.

Any source where this is supported? because things like GDP are dependen in many things and the current situation explains this (and other countries) drop without any need to involve DEI policies, looking at how they are still very popular in Canada as reported since the crackdown by the US it seems that the population do not share this view.

@ virusrex

From the Quebec stats office:

The fertility rate dropped sharply to 1.38 children per woman in 2023 from 1.48 in 2022, staying just above the historic low of 1.36 in 1987. The drop in the past year is part of a general downward trend observed over the past 15 years.

Many non-sense ideas here not helping or with barely any tiny positive effect on fertility rate : men takîng parental leave (does it help making you wish a baby? No), more subsidies for children day care ? No. More carreer women. No. Etc.

Truth is give women the choice about number of children and on average they will for many not have children and favor enjoying career, trips and beauty over maternity. Hard reality. All over the world.

Studies show the drop of fertility rate is due to the number of singles, not the average number of children for women who had children.

If all women on Earth were having 2 children, it would not even be sufficient from far. Just do the maths.

Japan in particular is hit because it rewards work (not even career) and beauty over social life.

Virus

with Trump and America going bonkers Japan, like just about every other G7 country, is going to have to build up its military in order to protect itself. Uncle Sam is heading home. So military cuts right now are not a good idea.

@Alyrustom

You are telling the right and so few seem to understand the dire consequences of what you are explaining.

Reproduce or fade into oblivion.....which would be real shame.

Jonathon, Ali is often on the button, especially when he upvotes and compliments my posts...

I've been asked to become a Japanese national, but Japan doesn't allow for dual nationality, and there is no way I'll give up my US citizenship. Japan should allow for dual nationality, as most western countries do.

Someone here suggested that it’s healthy foreigners who are paying the medical costs of elderly Japanese. But remember they’re all busy scamming the system themselves, according to articles that have appeared in JT and other news outlets recently.

The fertility rate dropped sharply to 1.38 children per woman in 2023 from 1.48 in 2022, staying just above the historic low of 1.36 in 1987. The drop in the past year is part of a general downward trend observed over the past 15 years.

The trend was interrupted thanks to the efforts made with family centered policies, but that does not mean it becomes immune to the global situation, the pandemic (and its effects in economy) had a negative effect in fertility in the later phase that is well described in many countries, this in no way refutes the fact that Quebec had a recovery thanks to the measures you said never worked anywhere.

 men takîng parental leave (does it help making you wish a baby?

Who says it does not help? it is not unreasonable at all that a woman no longer needs to quit her job, she can just take a much shorter leave and the father can take care of the rest. From where do you take that this is not significative? which analysis? without it just claiming things don't work is not an argument, specially when it has been shown to work in other places as the references prove.

Truth is give women the choice about number of children and on average they will for many not have children and favor enjoying career, trips and beauty over maternity. Hard reality. All over the world.

Reference required, it is well described that economic stability brings out higher fertility rates, this would be the opposite of what would be observed if your claim was true (since they have more things to enjoy over maternity), without explaining this discrepancy your argument holds no water.

Studies show the drop of fertility rate is due to the number of singles, not the average number of children for women who had children.

That is not true, that the same factors produce a drop on people interest in forming families (including getting married and having children) is not the same as one of the consequences causing the other.

with Trump and America going bonkers Japan, like just about every other G7 country, is going to have to build up its military in order to protect itself

Or not, since other solutions are available and risk can be manageable, also if your assumption is that the US no longer is involved in the protection of Japan there is no realistic way to replace this with military build up, even dedicating double or triple the amount of money.

Japan should allow for dual nationality, as most western countries do.

I agree wholeheartedly.

@Alyrustom

You are telling the right and so few seem to understand the dire consequences of what you are explaining.

Thank you Jonathan

KaowaiinekochanknawToday 

This is what a dying nation looks like.

Like which nations in the world history? Huh? GIve us all precedents which died from natural decreasing population.

Like which nations in the world history? Huh? GIve us all precedents which died from natural decreasing population.

Actually not sure what you mean or infer here but you can see the rate of dying surpasses births in the data below and continues to do so. I am not talking about other nations nor have looked into it.

Therefore Japan is currently a dying nation, as far as I see it.

https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h02331/

In 2024, the number of deaths increased by 28,181 to a new high of 1,618,684. The natural population decline, which is the difference between the number of births and deaths, surpassed 600,000 for the first time in 2021, but population decline has only accelerated since then, reaching 782,305 in 2022, 831,872 in 2023, and 897,696 in 2024.

Japan knows what it needs to do to effectively deal with this problem, but they won't. They'll try heaps of other measures until then, none of them effective, even offering lump-sum one-time payments of a million yen or more for the third child, but again, they won't do what they need to or even start trying until it's far too late, and it's too late already.

Needs to make more babies - teach sex and education

Therefore Japan is currently a dying nation, as far as I see it.

The problem is that this claim depends completely on a mistaken assumption, that the trend will/can continue until the nation ceases to exist, this is not something that can realistically happen. You could say it is a shrinking nation for example, but to say it is dying you would need to find first examples where the natural decrease of population was the cause for the nation to die and show how Japan is following the same trend.