Japan may get herd immunity for COVID-19 by mid-October: study

So this was the plan from the start was it…

The report estimated that obtaining herd immunity could potentially be pushed back to late February if the pace of inoculation peaks out at 1 million doses per day and quickly drops to around 500,000 per day.

This of course increases also the risks from new variants so it is extremely desirable that doesn't happen. Specially because the percentage necessary to obtain herd immunity is not yet well defined.

And the “Whack-a-mole” Arcade Games/style of COVID measures *continue *across Japan!

I've said this too many times, but anyway, I'll believe it when I see it.

Japan may achieve herd immunity against the novel coronavirus by mid-October at the earliest thanks to a recent acceleration in the country's inoculation drive, Nomura Securities Co said in a research report.

Analysts at Japan's biggest brokerage said that reaching COVID-19 herd immunity, whereby at least 70 percent of the population is immune to the disease, is possible by the week of Oct 18, about two months earlier than their previous estimate.

And this will happen even if the majority of us don't even know when our first shot will come?

Realistically at this rate, even if everyone gets their little vaccine voucher during sometime in July-August, we still have to make an appointment.

And since the government has halted things with companies and regular people are being put on wait lists, we can't expect our first shots until August or September at best. That's because we still have to reserve our shot sessions.

Add another month between shots, you're talking October-November for many people. If they are lucky.

Then you wait the two weeks after, and you're talking November-December, and that's IF this "1 million shots" per day is actually legit. And that's IF the majority of people actually get their shots. Many are still refusing.

So a more realistic time frame wouldn't be till Late December or early January at the earliest, if everything goes well.

Where do these fools even get their ideas from? I'm looking at you, Nomura Securities Co...........

Herd immunity is a myth...

Following which other countries that have achieved this so called herd immunity? Or is Japan going to be the first?

A total of 5.5 percent of the country's population of 125 million have received two vaccine shots, while 15.6 percent have received one shot as of Thursday, according to the government tallies.

As of yesterday (25.6) 9.7% for full shot, 20.7% for once. Considering caps in time of reporting (snail fax delivery?) the actual innovation numbers nationwide must be further larger.

チャートで見る日本の接種状況

https://vdata.nikkei.com/newsgraphics/coronavirus-japan-vaccine-status/

Even if herd immunity is not achieved, the Japanese economy is expected to pick up its pace of recovery in late July to August as the inoculation rate approaches the 10 to 20 percent range, the report said, based on the results seen in the United States.

Let's be hopeful.

The current minimum is 89%. 1-1/R0, with R0=3.51.51.6 , reflecting the step-ups in the variants, from the original over alpha up to delta. Forget something like a herd immunity, that’s simply impossible in Japan and a naive phantasy globally.

3.51.51.6

Oops, doesn’t work. Ok, 3.5 X 1.5 X 1.6

Flawed and optimistic. Where did 70% come from? There's no official hard number, but many suggest it will require at least 80%. Also, their calculation assumes that the current trend and acceleration of the trend in vaccination rates will continue until 70% is reached, which is highly unlikely. There remains a high level of vaccine hesitancy, so once those who want the vaccine have got it you can expect the vaccination rate to decline.

There remains a high level of vaccine hesitancy, so once those who want the vaccine have got it you can expect the vaccination rate to decline.

Exactly, it's happening in other countries

The current minimum is 89%. 1-1/R0, with R0=3.51.51.6 , reflecting the step-ups in the variants, from the original over alpha up to delta. Forget something like a herd immunity, that’s simply impossible in Japan and a naive phantasy globally.

Theoretically right. the WHO suggests 70%. Meanwhile empirically, many societies like the US is reopening back on the track despite less than half of the entire US population (46% ) for full short while new cases and death numbers are continuing to fall. Positive vax effects will likely emerge before reaching the immunity goal.

I suspect their expectations are on the hopeful side, given the UK has been vaccinating since December and we are looking to next month for all adults and our system is much less bureaucratic it would tend to suggest a longer time frame than the Japanese government is proposing.

Perhaps they could adopt what has just been started here, “grab a jab” centres and buses etc all around the country where any adult can just walk in and get a jab without any prior appointment or paperwork.

There remains a high level of vaccine hesitancy, so once those who want the vaccine have got it you can expect the vaccination rate to decline.

Ironically it's the doctors, who kept saying they are at full capacity from the virus, who are now convincing people not to get the vaccine.

That's not how herd immunity work. Why would a company let financial analysts give an opinion on health issue (a subject they have no education for) and why would journalists report that nonsense?

The government has temporarily halted company applications for COVID-19 vaccinations at workplaces due to concerns it will be unable to distribute doses quickly enough.

Stopping it because it would be too slow? I don't get it. Well then don't doing it at all seems to be the better choice ...

Just in time for the Olymp...oh wait. Never mind.

October? No way.

70% is way too high. Some U. S. States with 30% vaccinations have herd immunity.

Regardless, goal should be to vaccinate the vulnerable, then open up.

Things seem to be picking up, at least outside of Tokyo.

I got my reservation for a Pfizer jab next week.

The biggest problem is the information.

The reservation systems is convoluted and difficult to understand.

A BS study which is done by a financial conglomerate and has not been peer reviewed, Most likely their goal is to reinstate faith about the government in people.

Won't happen. Too many people who are nervous about the vaccine and are opting out of getting it.

Theoretically right. the WHO suggests 70%.

Yes, of course, all those values are theoretical ones. The WHO one is more at the lower bound of the interval, so that it is looking more optimistic, like a goal that can be worked to and could be reachable in some areas. ‘My’ value is calculated by the variant’s middle of the intervals, so of course very theoretical, because not all three variants will behave exactly at their estimated middle. I spare everyone the upper limit calculation, which results far above the 90%… Anyway, all the values show that it is not reachable, or if it is reached locally, it won’t hold, because of unforeseen further developments like next variants etc.

Stop predicting things. Instead Report on things that have occurred

Parents, do your homework. The CDC in the U.S. is reporting that a higher percentage of kids are hospitalized from the vaccine than COVID. Heart inflammation is major risk. Inexplicably, they are still pushing for kids to get the vaccine. Your kid, your choice.

 The CDC in the U.S. is reporting that a higher percentage of kids are hospitalized from the vaccine than COVID. Heart inflammation is major risk. 

A total lie. Just because you are a coward and afraid to get a little jab in the arm to protect other people, there is no need to endanger others with your stupid fantasies.

Wonder what life would be like in November though ...

Herd immunity is a thing. I live in beautiful Vancouver British Columbia Canada. Our vaccination rate is pushing 80% for everyone 12 year's old and older. Our covid numbers have gone from a high of 1200 a day to 56 yesterday and dropping every day. Patients in hospital have really dropped off. So as long as people get their shots you will have a real chance of herd immunity, best of luck to Japan.

Dream on for herd immunity, This delta variant has reach to Japan from Africa from india thanks to the Olypics and the the Delta variant suppose to be more contantious and deady that tne alpha variant. Yet people think becuase your vaccinated means your safe, Not the case you will be having to take vaccine for the rest of your like unitle we reach Omega variant and the last variant. Just like flue shots yearly.

Oxycodin,

Mostof your post is incorrect, except the part where you said the Delta variant more contagious, it is. But the vaccines work against it, so everyone get your vaccinations before the Delta variant has the chance to really take off.

If PM Suga and his lot had acted in February instead of June, Japan may have achieved this "herd immunity" by the start of the Olympics instead of October.

What a shame and what a waste!

When you are held unaccountable for your actions this is what you get, folks.

Excellent. Herd immunity to go along with group think that has been around for 3000 years.