Japan preparing to extend coronavirus emergency for about a month

"Health experts?" Probably going to call Trump for advice I'll bet!

Why is it that I get the urge to slap someone whenever I see Abe with that silly-arsed mask he is wearing!

Looks like something a 5 year old might wear, not a grown person!

Make that decision fast, the sooner the better.

People need to know what will happen after the Golden Week.

Quite so! The sooner the better, but if he doesnt decide until tomorrow, it's going to be a long weekend!

More state of emergency = no work, no money, stress and so on.

I get it, but better than being dead, especially for those in Tokyo!

Restart (which maybe too early) =- get that cash flowing, improve the economy.

Maybe? There hasnt been any indication that the curve has flattened out here, numbers keep increasing, with the exception of weekends and Mondays, which have less testing, and you would suggest people go back to work?

But please, let us know ASAP! Plans have to be made, not just by the government!

My bet, tomorrow you and everyone will know! In Okinawa the prefectural board of education has already (today) extended the period that schools will be off for two more weeks.

Look to your prefecture before Abe, they probably are doing a better job anyway!

Let's see how diluted Abe message will be as apposed to what the health experts tell him.

"Health experts?" Probably going to call Trump for advice I'll bet!

I concur. Also, some Japanese universities will have already announced that they will have only online classes until March 2021.

"Japan should have acted faster, locked down and contained in a shorter period of time," said Kenji Shibuya, director of the Institute of Population Health at King’s College, London. 

Deaths

UK: 26,097 (384/1M)

JPN: 425 (3/1M)

Many businesses aim at reopening on 6th of May, after the Golden Week. Upon the launch of state emergency in early April, Prime Minister Abe suggested that 420,000 would die in a month. We near the deadline. Currently the death toll is 400 plus, and it has come mostly without state interventions (notice the lag of time in infection).  

Abe also implied 80% cut in mobility to flatten the curve. Many districts on the street have fulfilled objectives while the curve is at level-off into decline stages. The goal has been accomplished. Why still needing extension? At nationwide level? despite varying situations underway across regions (but almost all prefectures including Tokyo now show R0

Continued from above

Why still needing extension? At nationwide level? despite varying situations underway across regions (but almost all prefectures including Tokyo now show R0

There will be at the end lets say 1,000 deaths from covid, average age 80-90 years old. And there will be more than 10,000 suicides because of unemployment and bankruptcy in the 30-50 year old range

THIS TIME , ABE MADE the right decision. One month is too short. Until antidote is out. Are U trying to murder anyone. ???.

My guess is the govt will want to flatten the curve more than it is showing here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/

New cases havent slowed enough, deaths still increasing too much. If the estimate of 6% of the population has been infected is actually the case, the potential for the new case rate to take off again is still very high. It would mean 7 or 8 million people have been infected at some point. Of those, there is likely to be a significant number of asymptomatic carriers who have not shown symptoms, are not aware they are positive, and are currently infectious. This is probably the main source of spread of the virus. Even if asymptomatic infections patients ”only” numbered 500,000, the potential for explosive growth is definitely there. 'My guess is that experts have advised the government of this.

The annoying thing is Japans stubborness and refusal to learn from others’ hard earned experience, which could make the response here so much more effective. For example, countries that are living through the worst outbreaks have found that early detection of falling blood oxygen levels and proactive treatment can hugely improve outcomes, lower the deathrate and the need for ventilators.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKHgDcbFTcM

Instead of admitting all positive cases to hospital, if they could properly monitor them and pro-actively treat anyone whose blood oxygen level shows signs of dropping, it would be better for patients and the health system. Insisting on specific symptoms (persistent fever) before testing is likely to actually produce worse outcomes (serious/critical illness) for many of us. Totally counter-productive. Instead of complaining about mild cases clogging up the system, why dont they change their protocols?

Japan has had more than 14,000 confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 436 deaths, according to public broadcaster NHK, still far lower figures seen in the United States and Europe.

I seriously don't know why they bother publishing these stats. Anyone with half a brain knows they are nowhere near accurate, for many reasons. What I would like to see is the total deaths, from all causes, for the first 4 months of this year compared to average for this time period on previous years. That will give us a clearer picture of what is actually going on.

 there remain worrying signs that Japan's low testing regime has undercounted many coronavirus cases.

Japan keeping statistics low to avoid panic. However, as history has shown, the J-Gov has a long history of downplaying medical issues in Japan. Minamata is a good example.

Why? Open up already!!!

"Places with low infection rates need to get the economy moving again."

Then people from places with high infection rates will go there and screw things up.....

"Japan should have acted faster, locked down and contained in a shorter period of time," said Kenji Shibuya, director of the Institute of Population Health at King’s College, London.

Which what many people without tenure or professional qualifications saw, and have been saying since the time this action would have been appropriate.

Why are these people known as experts? They’re two months behind regular folk posting here.

The US and European countries are starting to reopen in varying degrees although higher three-digit death tolls are still common, everyday phenomena. Whatever justifying the recourse, they seem to have failed and quit containment. Why is Japan with much lower records needed to go the other way? R0 is below 1 across almost all regions in Japan including Tokyo (Rt=0.39; 47 cases reported today).

Please show valid reason and data If you insist on an alarmist prophecy like "In two weeks time, Japan will become a second Wuhan, Italy, France, UK, NYC, etc." In fact Japan has since long continued to be outpaced by those counterparts. Prof. Nishimura's modeling and prediction of 420,000 more deaths in a month have proven wrong as Japan's current numbers are not yet results of interventions alongside the state emergency.

3 deaths per million people from a virus that has already been here 5 months. Time to get back to work.

Do NOT extend the stupid "State of Emergency". Economic suicide over an illness that has linked to far fewer deaths than the seasonal influenza!

@noriahojanen

Actually, countries that have decided to take limited steps up open up have been criticised:

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215317/coronavirus-europe-lockdown-denmark-austria-czech-republic

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/countries-risk-second-wave-of-coronavirus-infections-by-easing-restrictions-too-early-says-expert.html

Also, the US is NOT "opening up", but rather certain parts are, most notably part of Georgia, which even President Trump has criticised as being "too early":

https://youtu.be/XYwSfrHH-1s

Hervé L'EisaToday  

"Do NOT extend the stupid "State of Emergency". Economic suicide over an illness that has linked to far fewer deaths than the seasonal influenza!"

Incorrect:

"Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, has similar symptoms to the flu. They also spread in similar ways. So it's natural to want to compare the two. But Covid-19 is very different, in ways that make it much more dangerous. And understanding how is key to understanding why we have to take it so seriously."

(Video link: - https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=FVIGhz3uwuQ )

For more information:

https://heavy.com/news/2020/02/coronavirus-death-rate-vs-flu/

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-similarities-and-differences-covid-19-and-influenza

No use having a state of emergency in Japan because people just can’t stay indoors! They will go out to parks, beaches, malls, supermarkets and other areas unnecessarily. The photo on JT yesterday showing huge number of people sitting in a park in Yokohama basically next to each other summed it up! Might as well open up businesses and return everyone to work! The true extent of the outbreak in Japan will never be known because of the limited testing so it’s senseless to keep the state of emergency which only requests rather than making in mandatory! Half hearted approaches will never be effective!

To date, a lock down has never been necessary in Japan. The virus has been here since January.

The pro lock-down folks on here have been promising the New York and Italy curve for over a month. Yet the numbers drop in the most populated city where people have been gathering for months.

Social distancing hasn't even been practiced in Japan (until recently) and the mortality rate is so low. We hear of a few hospitals feeling pressure but there doesn't seem to be a national emergency.

Cautiously keep the economy running! Some countries over-reacted and now they don't know how to start their economies again.

People need to start openly talking about the amount of risk they are willing to accept. We all know that deaths can't be prevented. We seem to accept tens of thousands of deaths to flu each year, and that is with a vaccine.

If the trains are running nearly empty, why are they running the same route with an express every 21 minutes?

CaptDingleheimer:

If the trains are running nearly empty, why are they running the same route with an express every 21 minutes?

Its because as many trains are running as usual, they are nearly empty. More trains + less people = more spaces.

Went shopping to a local supermarket this morning.

At the tills they have 1 .5 m distance marked out.

But when you try to get in to the shop, customers are pushing each other out of the way.

Baskets are on the left, trolleys are on the right, so they have to walk from left to right before they get in. Complete chaos!

Japanese Government must learn from Australia model.

Tokyo and Osaka need to total lock down for a month

Short term pain for long term gain

This coronavirus Covid-19 has sleeper Covid-19 virus carriers. Italian model has positive test for the 4 times and no signs illness.

How many untested peoples around the world and in the Japan?

I believe there will be second wave of Coronavirus Covid-19 if the government did not test all citizens.

The current worldwide death rate is approximately 7% of confirmed cases (229,182 dead out of 3,244,595 COVID-19 positive as of 30 Apr). With every batch of testing done and the subsequent discovery that higher percentage of people are positive yet totally asymptomatic, this death rate will continue to fall. In future history books, this pandemic will be written up as having been a serious medical issue only for those 70 and up or with certain medical conditions that place them at risk. For everyone else, i.e. the vast majority of the population, the suffering will have consisted of fear and panic from a little known disease, which is understandable in the early stages but inexcusable once the figures have begun to paint a truer picture that's far less bleak medically speaking. In retrospect, the self-inflicted catastrophic damage to society and various national economies along with their second and third order effects, many irreversible, on individual lives will be deemed the real cost of this pandemic, not it's relatively small global death toll.

ridicolous

CaptDingleheimer:

If the trains are running nearly empty, why are they running the same route with an express every 21 minutes?

socrateos:

Its because as many trains are running as usual, they are nearly empty. More trains + less people = more spaces.

My point is, if ridership is down so significantly, they should run fewer trains.

ex: If they previously ran 3 trains per hour on a given route but ridership is down 66%, run 1 per hour instead.

Hunter JamesToday 09:41 pm JST

No use having a state of emergency in Japan because people just can’t stay indoors! They will go out to parks, beaches, malls, supermarkets and other areas unnecessarily. The photo on JT yesterday showing huge number of people sitting in a park in Yokohama basically next to each other summed it up! Might as well open up businesses and return everyone to work! The true extent of the outbreak in Japan will never be known because of the limited testing so it’s senseless to keep the state of emergency which only requests rather than making in mandatory! Half hearted approaches will never be effective!

we go out, we use train, we go supermarkets (malls are closed FYI), finally spring has come so we go parks and beaches

so why there are not 20.000 dead cases as in the west but only 425 ???? Check how many people died in the previous years for seasonal influenza and try to understand that lockdown a country means make it die

Do the hustleToday 08:01 pm JST

 there remain worrying signs that Japan's low testing regime has undercounted many coronavirus cases.

Japan keeping statistics low to avoid panic. However, as history has shown, the J-Gov has a long history of downplaying medical issues in Japan. Minamata is a good example.

stop with this bs

undercounting, undertesting, the truth is : 400 people died since january for corona virus, less than seasonal influenza in the previous year

and deaths can't be undercounted or underestimated, period.

CaptDingleheimer, while I see your point, the bigger point is that keeping a regular train schedule with far fewer people will make riding the trains a lot, lot, lot safer.

Really, let's just stop this fantasy that the economy can ever return to normal. Just give everyone free money and let everyone be happy. No work. No socializing. No infections. If the whole world did this, we wouldn't have to worry about currency fluctuations, etc. etc.

Japan has done well so far and I support the necessary measures to keep the public safe.

Numbers of death and the declining numbers of new cases should speak for themselves.

If you consider S. Korea a success which has half the population of Japan, then Nippon did much better.

If your worried about economic future or business im sorry for your situation... Your not the only one dealing with financial problems, losing business or a job. Over 170 countries are dealing with this situation.

No magic fix, something on this scale hasn't happened in modern times. Everyone is being affected.

Extension is obvious. Get on with it. While you’re at it, create or amend the legislation to allow enforcement ASAP!

the truth is : 400 people died since january for corona virus, less than seasonal influenza in the previous year

Remind me, how long did we take worldwide measures such as isolating and social distancing fto stop the flu from spreading last year? I’m having troubles remembering, but we must have done it, because if we didn’t, in the above quote you just asked why apples don’t taste like oranges.

People

Stay home if possible please.

Also Japan government should pay to all employed and self employed people like UK government.

@Cognac

and deaths can't be undercounted or underestimated, period

Are you sure about that?

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, there's a brilliant mind. The current clampdown is sensible in Tokyo, Osaka and larger cities. Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe, maybe, maybe. Australia, there's a good model, excepting there are more people in Tokyo, actually about twice the number. "I believe there will be a second wave of Coronavirus-19, if the government did not test all citizens." Well, at best that is a faulty 'belief system'. Science is key. Health experts that's an innocuous term, sounds like a political gathering. And oodles of anecdotal musings, as if that registers on some scale keying in on the pandemic. Here's some data. Nara Prefecture, has 1,400,000 people. 3,691 square kilometres (1,425 sq miles). There are 83 cases of Covid. That is cumulative since January 16, 2020. That works out to: 0.01% of the population. Nara City has a population of 355,300. There are 19 cases. 3 are asymptomatic. That is: 0.01% of the population. There has been one death. That is: 0.00007% of the population. How does that fit with Tokyo, Osaka, Hyogo, Hokkaido, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba, Fukuoka and Chiba? Blanket proclamations from on high, Mr. Abe and his health experts and even worse the rather anile Governor of Nara Prefecture, who continues on into his dotage.

With at least 14,000 cases and 436 deaths (the vast majority of whom has pre-existing conditions) the mortality rate 0.03%. Open things up again. Stop this shutdown nonsense. Those who wish to remain home may do so. Those who wish to avoid economic suicide are smart enough and responsible enough to wear masks, wash their hands and keep their distance.

100,000 thousand yen was for April. How about May?

“Tokyo and Osaka need to total lock down for a month 

Short term pain for long term gain”.

Yes but they can’t and won’t. Japan has two choices to face. Kill the elderly or kill the economy. One or the other.

Economy can recover. Human lives cannot. Economy exists only when human lives exist. Economy is meaningless without human lives. Human lives first always and forever.

In war times, there cannot be normal economy. At minimum, just secure food and medicines for delivery for the people. Nothing else matters.

Has anyone seen that 100,000 yen yet ?

Fully agree...got mine, ridiculously small and doesnt fit...this silly Abenomask fiasco is the mother of all wasted tax money schemes.

I do not know the address, but my daughter told me yesterday that there is a collection point that people can forward their masks if they do not want them, and they will be put to good use with younger children and people who really need them.

My wife and daughter have made numerous masks for us in our family, I neither want nor need Abe's gift!

Has anyone seen that 100,000 yen yet ?

Good lord, how fast do you think the government here works? The Diet JUST approved the measure officially last night (April 30th)

One prefecture, Aichi, went and paid one elderly woman, at 10:00 PM last night, as she had applied online earlier, and someone had to be first, and get it on national TV too!

Give it time! Large metropolitan areas will take until at least until the end of May to distribute the cash, according to news sources last night. SO if you live in "inaka-land" you have a higher chance of receiving the money sooner than those that live in Tokyo.

@Objective

"To date, a lock down has never been necessary in Japan. The virus has been here since January... etc... etc..'

Incorrect.

"The strict constraints on testing for the virus by Japanese health authorities have drawn accusations from critics such as Masahiro Kami, a hematologistand director of the Medical Governance Research Institute, towards Abe of wanting to "downplay the number of infections or patients because of the upcoming Olympics." Reports that only a small select number of public health facilities were authorized to test for the virus, after which the results could only be processed by five government-approved companies, has created a bottleneck where clinics have been forced to turn away even patients who had high fevers. This has led some experts to question Japan's official case numbers..."

(Source: - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_responses_to_the_2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic#Japanese_government )

"With a population of over 126 million, the country has conducted 32,125 tests over the past month. However, because some people are tested multiple times, Japan has actually only tested 16,484 individuals — or about one test per 7,600 people. In comparison, South Korea, with a population of over 50 million, seemingly slowed the spread of the virus by testing more than 270,000 people — one test per 185 people — through a well-organized program."

(Source: - https://www.businessinsider.com/why-japan-cases-of-coronavirus-are-so-low-2020-3 )

"Other basic information is kept from the public without any explanation. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government has a COVID-19 web page and seems to be promoting transparency by putting out the daily number of the infected. However, it won’t tell you how many people asked to be tested or how many people were actually tested; basic data is lacking so that the numbers have no context. The same is true of the statistics released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. There seems to be no interest in getting an indication of the prevalence of the virus in Japanese society"

(Source: - https://www.thedailybeast.com/japans-covid-19-state-of-emergency-locks-down-criticism?ref=scroll )

"...What it shows is Japan is only testing people who are already quite sick. In fact, the official guidelines for doctors say they should only recommend a test if the patient has pneumonia. That is the reason why the level of testing actually done in Japan is about half of the capacity according to a health ministry official, even weeks after the government has started to ramp up its testing...

> ...Jordain Haley is an American working in Japan as a business analyst and volunteer translator. Via Skype she told me what happened when she helped a friend, who doesn't speak fluent Japanese, to get a test...."She must use the side entrance." Jordain was told. "She must not tell anyone where this testing is taking place. It could cause a commotion."...

> ..."Japan is identifying those who really need help and its medical care is excellent, and that's why so few are dying." This is not untrue according to Professor Kenji Shibuya of Kings College London. "From the physician's point of view, it makes sense," he says. "Forget about mild cases, focus on cases with major symptoms and save lives. Focus testing on those who have symptoms."

> But, says Professor Shibuya, from a public health point of view, Japan's refusal to test more widely is incredibly risky. He points to a study done by Keio University in Tokyo. Last week, the University hospital published a study of Covid tests done on patients admitted for non-Covid related illnesses and procedures. It found that around 6% of them tested positive for Covid-19. It is a small sample and not "generalisable".

> But Professor Shibuya still describes it as "very shocking". "We are definitely missing a lot of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases," he says. "There is clearly widespread community transmission. I am very worried by this situation.".."

(Source: - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52466834 )