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Japan reports 1,021 new cases of coronavirus on Sunday; 260 in Tokyo

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This virus is not to be trifled with nor underestimated. It is like a wildfire. A small spark and lack of attention to control and will quickly become out of control.

DO NOT become like America!

8 ( +20 / -12 )

ON HOW MANY TESTS ?

Positive cases / tests done is the important ratio, not a cumulative amount over the whole population !

11 ( +16 / -5 )

ON HOW MANY TESTS ?

Just pointing out that this is a common comment in regards to the number of inefected.

If you have a some knowledge of Japanese you can find out from various sources including NHK. They have a special corona virus section that shows daily test numbers among other corona related data.

You can use google, bing or other translation services to get the info in English.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/special/coronavirus/

7 ( +10 / -3 )

ArtistAtLargeToday  06:54 am JST

This virus is not to be trifled with nor underestimated. It is like a wildfire. A small spark and lack of attention to control and will quickly become out of control.

What 'control"?

10 ( +15 / -5 )

Viruses are far more ancient than humans and the ferocity of their survival skills inside animal bodies is formidable, their ability to propagate through populations without peer. Humans in their arrogance and ignorance always overestimate the invulnerability of their bodies to invisible organisms, but they underestimate the virulence of these vampirish parasites at their peril. A grim flu season awaits the world.

-8 ( +3 / -11 )

DO NOT become like America!

But we're not comparing apples to apples.

America's daily testing per capita is 10 times of Japan, going back a couple months, it's 50 times.

But I concur, even ten times, positives is much higher in America. Just trying to convey, do NOT trust the low positives here in Japan.

12 ( +16 / -4 )

for the 260 people in Tokyo here's the PCR/Antigen Test

Positive rate

5.9 %

Number of tested people

3,379.0 persons

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

Even though 260/3379 is 7.7% but whatevers. Lots of hair splitting.

Imagine if they tested 20,000 or 40,000? Therefore that's why they test so few.

Once again cannot face reality

16 ( +22 / -6 )

Why on earth are they still not making testing more widespread? Are they scared of publicizing the real situation?

15 ( +19 / -4 )

This virus is not to be trifled with nor underestimated. It is like a wildfire. A small spark and lack of attention to control and will quickly become out of control.

DO NOT become like America!

I already feel as if its too late!

I heard that this CCP virus covid-18 is nothing more than a cold?

Hope Abe has created enough hospital beds to accomodate everyone who got infected during OBON vacation last week. Almost everyone I saw was out and about like nothing bad is going on.

-3 ( +5 / -8 )

for the 260 people in Tokyo here's the PCR/Antigen Test

> Positive rate

> 5.9 %

> Number of tested people

> 3,379.0 persons

> https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

> Even though 260/3379 is 7.7% but whatevers.

PCR tests are not precise and have false positive rate of more than 6%. I doubt they retested positives 2 more times on different days before reporting these numbers.

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

Positive cases / tests done is the important ratio, not a cumulative amount over the whole population !

Why is this important for you ? For me personaly, maybe if this was a study and the test subjects are random it would be important number. But it is not, this is more in the lines of crisis handling, learning on the job and improvising !

Nevertheless the ratio you refer to in Japan is still an interesting number.

Case/tests in ratio would look like this "positive" / ( "tested" = "symptomatic and convincing phone calls candidates" + "traced candidates" ). Interesting especially if "tested" and "positive" are both bigger then 10000 and the ratio value close to 1

-5 ( +0 / -5 )

The ‘travel campaign’ has pushed up the numbers and it will show an increase to higher numbers this week too...

4 ( +8 / -4 )

for the 260 people in Tokyo here's the PCR/Antigen Test

Positive rate

5.9 %

Number of tested people

3,379.0 persons

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

Even though 260/3379 is 7.7% but whatevers. Lots of hair splitting.

You should look closer if it seems there's a discrepancy.

The 260 was for 8/16

5.9% for 8/14

1 ( +2 / -1 )

for the 260 people in Tokyo here's the PCR/Antigen Test

Positive rate

5.9 %

Number of tested people

3,379.0 persons

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

Even though 260/3379 is 7.7% but whatevers. Lots of hair splitting.

Imagine if they tested 20,000 or 40,000? Therefore that's why they test so few.

Once again cannot face reality

Absolutely.

This is the information that needs to be included in any article that wants to report 'daily infection numbers'.

Not including the total number of tests and/or the % positive rate makes it look like the raw number stated (260 for Tokyo, 1,021 nationwide) is the grand total of cases. This is not true, and is misleading. These are only the cases that have been found.

Why is it so important to do this? Well, there are still so many people (as we still see on JT) whose mentality remains "260 cases in Tokyo is nothing. That's 0.000007% of the population" etc. The correct messaging needs to be about the potential infection rate being 5.9% in Tokyo, which would represent about 2.1 million people. The message should be:

"Testing at the 3,000 tests/day level indicates that 1 in 20 people in Tokyo may be infected. As a result please maintain social distancing wherever possible, wear masks, and refrain from large gatherings etc."

8 ( +11 / -3 )

Tip of the Iceberg wait another week things are going to get real nasty

So by next Monday things would get real nasty ? I am not sure what your definitiion of nasty is but I can virtually guarantee you won't be seeing diggers carrying corpses

3 ( +5 / -2 )

I doubt they retested positives 2 more times on different days before reporting these number

I think (well like to..) part of the reason why it takes 3 days to compile data is exactly because of testing multiple times and diagnosing multiples methodology

Being COVID19 positive is a big deal in Japan. Neighbor issues aside it will almost certainly lead to financial loss.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

Because unless you have serious symptoms, going to a test centre increases the likelihood you will most certainly become infected and / or infect others. 

Because a positive result often causes hospitalization regardless of the severity of the symptoms. Beds are needed for serious cases.

Here in NYC, it appears that the facts dispute this assertion. Every day, a great many people are now getting tested, the vast majority of them not showing any symptoms, and still our % positive rate is going down and down. It’s well under 1% now. There are free testing locations in many neighborhoods, and I’ve heard from a number of people that there are no lines and it doesn’t feel particularly unsafe, not any more so than going to the grocery store.

Furthermore, we are told clearly here NOT to go see the doctor or the ER unless symptoms have become bad. So testing positive in and of itself usually does not result in hospitalization. I don’t think asymptomatic people are ever hospitalized here.

So, mass testing, rather than making the situation worse, appears to be making the situation much better. It’s much less common now for anyone to be walking around for any length of time while positive.

6 ( +9 / -3 )

Again wait another week or two???

Same like 2 weeks after Cherry Blossom?

Same 2 weeks after Golden week?

How many times more do we have to wait another 2 weeks until your predicted nasty number of cases will appear?

How many nasty cases do you expect after the Go to travel?

Same like last time, 400.000?

I don’t understand why you guys are so serious about mathematics, how many cases according to how many tests, and so on....

Anyway there is only one thing you can do:

Live with the Virus by doing your best personal prevention and wait for the vaccine.

That’s it!

That is what the whole world is doing right now.

If the news are correct, a vaccine will come end of this year, beginning of next year.

After the vaccine is successful implemented, let us talk again if Japan handles the Virus situation good or not.

-11 ( +3 / -14 )

Furthermore, we are told clearly here NOT to go see the doctor or the ER unless symptoms have become bad. So testing positive in and of itself usually does not result in hospitalization. I don’t think asymptomatic people are ever hospitalized here.

That's where Japan went wrong in the beginning. I think they've relaxed it now, but earlier on if you tested positive then you were required to stay in a hospital. There wasn't an option to recover at home. Inability to get tested without mandatory hospitalization led to asymptomatic and folks with light cases not knowing their status and being out in public.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

Mass testing would, of course, usually lead to lower and lower positive rates, even in situations where number of positive cases are increasing.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

@ mongy

I hear you maths is hard

3 ( +5 / -2 )

Another thing about the PCR/Antigen Test numbers I'd like confirming.

It seems there are currently approximately 3,000 PCR tests done daily in Tokyo. Does this number include all those who are receiving frequent tests in order to safely do their jobs - e.g. politicians, pro baseball players, pro soccer players, surgeons etc., or is this number just ordinary members of the public?

I could easily imagine 30% of 3,000 could be PCR tests done for those requiring tests for their jobs i.e. people not necessarily showing any symptoms at all. A lot of those tests would be negatives as these people are often in bubbles - in which case these numbers might be diluting the actual positive test results from ordinary people quite a bit.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Seems like there is no effort to control or even take it seriously. What'll happen if the poop does hit the fan.Half arsed lockdown will not be enough to stop it get out of control. There's only so many deaths you can hide.

-1 ( +4 / -5 )

For the Maths people:

Japan reports 1021 cases.

Among a population from 125.000.000.

Do your Maths please...

-9 ( +3 / -12 )

My Maths: (If Trump has the same Maths, I don't know)

1.021 cases among a population of 125.000.000 is an Infection Rate of 0.0008%

Let us say it is NOT 1.021 cases, let us say it is 1.021.000 cases, among a population of 125.000.000 is 0.8% infection Rate.

Lower than 1%.

(And that is for an imagined Number of 1.021.000)

The reported number of 1.021 is 0.0008%.

-8 ( +4 / -12 )

They didn't test 125,000,000 people wow.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Where is Abe addressing this situation on a daily basis? This virus is not going to improve until winter. Yes, I say a very good, real cold winter snow storm for about 2 weeks where everyone will stay indoors at least here in Tokyo. That is when the streets become quiet and stores, too, as people do not have the clothes for winter here and do not like the very cold. Until people stay indoors and self-isolate this thing is not going to go anywhere.

-4 ( +2 / -6 )

This virus is not to be trifled with nor underestimated. It is like a wildfire. A small spark and lack of attention to control and will quickly become out of control.

Lockdown until a vaccine then. Bye-bye jobs and the economy.

-1 ( +4 / -5 )

@Starbucks

They didn't test 125,000,000 people

No country in the world is testing its whole population!

Therefor I set an imagined Number of 1.021.000 cases.

Just to show you and all the people here who continuously say, the reported cases are too low.

My imagined Number of cases is more than one million!

And even so, the infection rate is lower than 1%.

-7 ( +1 / -8 )

Hopefully it testing will continue to fall.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

“This virus is not to be trifled with nor underestimated. It is like a wildfire. A small spark and lack of attention to control and will quickly become out of control.”

Its hard to make a more sensationalist statement than that

-2 ( +4 / -6 )

“.Is it me or do Ambulances seem to running around everywhere”

Heatstroke victims no doubt? It is that time of year

-2 ( +4 / -6 )

Monty, I think you may be missing the point.

It's not really about how many cases there are; its about the situation being worse today that it was last week, or last month, or two months ago.

It's about the shift in strategy in May directly correlating to more deaths, infections and illness now. It's about the false narrative that pursuing a public health focused strategy is economically unviable, when there is no evidence, domestically or internationally, that a 'learn-to-live-with-it' strategy has any advantage economically or otherwise.

It's about the idea that 'acceptable mortality' amongst the elderly is preferable to the inconvenience of a temporary loss of liberty and temporary financial burden.

It's about individuals sharing stories of recent travel or visiting elderly relatives during Obon, when at least 75 people have spent this period burying their loved ones as a direct result of the failure to contain the spread of this virus since the first lockdown ended in May.

That's what it's about.

1 ( +6 / -5 )

go to travel!!!!!what a "brilliant" idea is nt it?

5 ( +6 / -1 )

It's about the shift in strategy in May directly correlating to more deaths, infections and illness now.

Deaths while higher this month are lower than may, furthermore almost exclusively these deaths are people dying of corona as opposed to a variety of other illnesses they already had, or old age. So it is at worst people dying a little earlier not unexpectedly

It's about the false narrative that pursuing a public health focused strategy is economically unviable, when there is no evidence, domestically or internationally, that a 'learn-to-live-with-it' strategy has any advantage economically or otherwise

The 25% drop in gdp would say otherwise.

It's about the idea that 'acceptable mortality' amongst the elderly is preferable to the inconvenience of a temporary loss of liberty and temporary financial burden.

Studies show that lockdowns have resulted in people dying and going to die from missing cancer diagnosis etc. So eitherway people die. It's brutal but I would rather an 85 year old die from corona than a 40 year old from late cancer diagnosis.

Its about individuals sharing stories of recent travel or visiting elderly relatives during Obon, when at least 75 people have spent this period burying their loved ones as a direct result of the failure to contain the spread of this virus since the first lockdown ended in May.

Every obon, people die, yet we as a society some how carry on

Your example illustrates life is short, leaving the elderly locked up alone at home, seems the worst possible way to spend your final days.

-5 ( +1 / -6 )

3379 people tested in Tokyo for 260 positives giving you a 7.7 per cent positive rate. Not hard to understand.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Deaths while higher this month are lower than may, furthermore almost exclusively these deaths are people dying of corona as opposed to a variety of other illnesses they already had, or old age. So it is at worst people dying a little earlier not unexpectedly.

Perhaps I was unclear, I meant 'more deaths, infections and illness' in the sense that these metrics have all been trending up since the change of strategy, which is demonstrated by the data here: https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html. It's is plainly obvious that the lockdown strategy worked, and the change of strategy resulted in a reversal of the downward trend. You are correct, May did have a higher death rate. However, August is the first month since May to see a higher mortality that the month before, and the first 15 days have already seen significantly more deaths than the same period in April. Finally, do you have any evidence that any person who has died of covid-19 would have died 'a little' later in time of some other disease?

The 25% drop in gdp would say otherwise.

Again, I think you missed my point. Every country in the world, regardless of their public health strategy, is facing economic recession as a result of the pandemic. The degree of impact is primarily reflective of the preexisting economic situation in those countries, NOT of their corona response. I will admit, I am not aware of any country which absolutely ignored the virus, so it is difficult to get a picture of what that would look like economically. However, both Sweden (as a country which consciously avoided strict public health measures) and the U.S. (as a country with a mismanaged public health response which was too quickly replaced with an economic protection strategy) are examples of countries which have very bad public health results and no demonstrable economic advantage over other countries.

Studies show that lockdowns have resulted in people dying and going to die from missing cancer diagnosis etc. So eitherway people die. It's brutal but I would rather an 85 year old die from corona than a 40 year old from late cancer diagnosis.

Please provide citations for these studies, and evidence of any death due to any illness which has arisen as direct result of lock-down. I am sure it has happened, but I would guess it would be far less deaths than as a result of the current strategy. Furthermore, in a well managed lockdown, essentially services like health care are still available, so there should be not barrier to cancer diagnosis. And, as a lockdown reduces the number of corona cases and therefore stress on the health system, hospitals should actually better be able to treat other illnesses.

Every obon, people die, yet we as a society some how carry on.

I don't see how preaching a nihilistic interpretation makes your point. You're right, we will all die sometime. Why bother trying to stop any deaths. Also, why bother having children, going to work, doing anything?

Your example illustrates life is short, leaving the elderly locked up alone at home, seems the worst possible way to spend your final days.

In much the same way as everyone else, the elderly are perfectly capable of understanding the need to slow the virus and entertaining themselves for a few months. If there are people who are literally dying of another illness, of course family can visit and say good bye. There can be special circumstances. But for the vast majority of the 60+ people in Japan, they have decades left and it is callous and simply wrong to suggest they are expendable because you do not want to suffer temporary discomfort.

There is no way ahead without economic suffering and discomfort. We may be able to reduce that discomfort if we kill the elderly, however it seems increasingly likely that the gain we make will be minimal. If you want to advocate that path, that's fine. I do not.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

“are examples of countries which have very bad public health results and no demonstrable economic advantage over other countries.”

Got any evidence for your hysteria?

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

“It's about individuals sharing stories of recent travel or visiting elderly relatives during Obon, when at least 75 people have spent this period burying their loved ones as a direct result of the failure to contain the spread of this virus since the first lockdown ended in May.”

Sorry, that hook has long since lost its bait for me

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

@starbucks

Ok, you say they just test 3379 people.

That means only 3379 people in Tokyo shows symptoms and they went to hospital.

And only 260 were positive.

Among Tokyo population from 14.000.000.

You guys always say, people who show up at hospitals are getting refused for testing.

Ok, let us say they refuse 100.000 people for testing.

And all this 100.000 people are positive.

100.000 plus 3379 is 103.379.

Among 14.000.000 population in Tokyo: 0.7% infection rate.

That is also under 1%.

Not difficult to understand, right?

-6 ( +1 / -7 )

@ monty

Never said a word about people being admitted to hospitals. Only trying to point out your maths is wrong. Maybe you have children that can explain ratios to you,I don't know. I'm sorry that you can't grasp it but.

5 ( +7 / -2 )

@Starbucks

You dont get my point.

No problem.

Our way of thinking according the Virus is different.

But that is Ok.

Thats why we are here to share and discuss our opinions and thoughts.

-6 ( +1 / -7 )

George Townes

If you have a some knowledge of Japanese you can find out from various sources including NHK. They have a special corona virus section that shows daily test numbers among other corona related data.

Did you even bother to check the link that you provided. Data latest data for pcr test was august 13 while the results are for sunday august 16th. The data for pcr test should be readily available and current and that is not the case. One doesn't need to comb through pages and pages of several websites looking for data. Why can't they provide data that is timely like what Johns Hopkins university is doing.

I feel the number of pcr test is deliberately left out not to reveal the low number of test and to make it difficult for one to grasp the extend of community spread of the virus.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

“are examples of countries which have very bad public health results and no demonstrable economic advantage over other countries.”

Got any evidence for your hysteria?

Sigh, sure... as a measure of economic stability I will use GDP quarterly change between the first quarter (January - March) and the second quarter (April - June) (Q2 GDP) and as a measure of public health I will use deaths per million population (DPM). GDP is taken from

Starting with Sweden in comparison to it's Scandinavian neighbors, all of whom implemented fairly significant lockdowns in April and May, and continue to pursue a tentatively reopening with a focus on public health. GDP data from [https://www.businessinsider.co.za/trending/coronavirus-sweden-gdp-falls-8pc-in-q2-worse-nordic-neighbors-2020-8] and DPM from [https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/]:

Sweden:

Q2 GDP: -8.6%

DPM: 567.21

Denmark:

Q2 GDP: -7.4%

DPM: 107.12

Norway:

Q2 GDP: -7.1%

DPM: 48.36

Finland:

Q2 GDP: -3.2%

DPM: 60.35

The U.S is in a similar position to Sweden:

U.S.:

Q2 GDP: -9.5%

DPM: 509.8

Compared to all these countries, Japan looks very good. However, when compared to neighboring countries with similar social and cultural practices, as well as comparable health, dietary and other factors, not so much:

Japan:

Q2 GDP: -7.8%

DPM: 8.48

Taiwan:

Q2 GDP: -0.73%

DPM: 0.03

South Korea:

Q2 GDP: -3.3%

DPM: 5.91

Of course, In fairness, there are countries far worse off than all the above, both economically and in terms of SARS-CoV-2. While there are numerous factors contributing to this situation, I think it is fair to say that, as with the U.S., an inpatient response has allowed resurgence:

Spain:

Q2 GDP: -18.5%

DPM: 612.22

I could go on... but the point is, looking across all the numbers. The actual results so far, it is clear that the 'save the economy' vs 'save lives' dichotomy is false. A controlled lock-down, or at the very least strategy based on restricted activity and control over the virus, actually allows business and individuals to better prepare and weather the inevitable economic impact, rather than the unfounded belief that if we just ignore it and carry on as usual, we will somehow avoid economic impacts.

Anyway, I realize I won't change the minds of most here. I just wish someone would explain the current strategy using actual facts, figures and evidence. Because from what I can see, it doesn't hold up.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

Because a positive result often causes hospitalization regardless of the severity of the symptoms. Beds are needed for serious cases.

Not true, used to when the pandemic initially started but is no longer the case. Most people with milder cases are advised to stay at home even if they are suffering from the symptoms.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Apologies, I made an error above:

Taiwan:

DPM: 0.30

My original figure (0.03) was deaths per 100,000 population.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Northernlife

Is it me or do Ambulances seem to running around everywhere.

You are not alone, I hear them too.

I have noticed an increase in autopsies at a large university teaching hospital. Some days there are far more corpses and they are forced to store them in an adjacent bldg without a basement that is in full view of anyone around.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

Monty

Ok, let us say they refuse 100.000 people for testing.

And all this 100.000 people are positive.

Don't you think if the number of test was commensurate with Japans economic wealth and population we won't have to assume. You still don't seem to grasp the fact that this started as a single case and has spread the entire globe killing hundred of thousands of people.

It is easy to assume numbers without giving any thought to consequences.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

@northernlife

Me is who he's referring to.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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