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© KYODOJapan reports over 600 cases on Thursday; 286 in Tokyo
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1glenn
The reason Japan has so many fewer people diagnosed with the new coronavirus than the US is not because Japan does less testing than the US, but because Japan's leadership is more competent than the US's in preventing the spread of the disease. In fact, the leadership of every industrialized nation in the world is doing a better job than the US's leadership, in just about every way measureable.
alsdia
sorry for the line 60029.42.618 = 46181 cases, this blog convert the * sign into italic
it meant 600x29.4x2.618 = 46181 = number of cases in Japan IF Japan had the same population of the USA, and IF Japan did the same number of tests every 1 M pop like the USA.
InspectorGadget
Haven't we been saying this over and over again! As soon as the elections were out of the way the testing ramps up . . . . and the politically inconvenient number of daily positive cases becomes known.
alsdia
ah one more point to make the trade even more fair. The populations of US and Japan are different in numbers. we need to weight the populations! Let's do a little more math.
US population = 331,097,557
Japan population = 126,455,870
US/Japan population ratio = 331,097,557/126,455,870 = 2.618
So if Japan had the same population of the USA, and if Japan did the same number of tests per 1 million population as the USA the total number of new daily cases in Japan would be :
60029.42.618 = 46181 cases
where 29.4 = (US tests per 1Mpop) / (JP tests per 1Mpop)
and 2.618 = US population / JP population
Therefore the real trade becomes
your (America's) 70,000+ cases for Japan 46181 cases
Still convenient but far from being optimal.
alsdia
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
(America's) 145,749 Tests/1M pop Japan 4,952 Tests/1M pop.
US is testing 145,749/4,952 = 29,4 more times than Japan.
If Japan tested 29,4 more, those 600 cases could become 600*29.4 = 17640
So a more fair trade would be (America's) 70000+ for 17000+ cases, still a good trade, but not an excellent trade. To do an excellent trade I would go for New Zealand, much more transparent, with numbers not modelled by the will to save short term economic interests.
It is extremely difficult to be a politician in these hard times. To do the balance between economy and public health is almost mission impossible. But: you could at least honestly change your plans if the situation changes. you should be flexible. Cases are rising? So let's postpone the Go To Travel campaign. Just a message by Abe san, "sorry, we were not expecting those rising cases, we will postpone the go to travel campaign, instead we will increase the number of tests, and allow everyone that want to be tested to do it, for free. We won't declare national emergency again, but we will raise by 30 times the number of daily tests, and make those tests free for all"
That would be a speech I would like to hear, that would be a politician that does not hide his head under the sand, a politician that wants honestly to assess the situation, and at the same time protect the economy. By hiding the true numbers with limited tests like Trump suggests, the problem does not go away. The problem will just last longer.
1glenn
I'll trade you our (America's) 70,000+ cases for your 600 cases.
theFu
Be certain to "Go To travel" all around Japan now.
https://japantoday.com/category/national/Gov%27t-faces-backlash-after-Tokyo-residents-excluded-from-Go-To-travel-campaign
/s
macv
Japan often boasts it is a unique homogenous nation impervious to woes of outsiders, ya mean they are mere mortals like the rest of the world? gosh this is terrible
alsdia
I have found an answer here
http://www.tools4dev.org/resources/how-to-choose-a-sample-size/
So yes it seems that the 0.1% antibodies result from the government and the estimation of a total of 14,000,000x 0.1 /100 = 14000 cases, at least until June, seems more accurate.
alsdia
oh my bad, I copy pasted the wrong number I needed to write
Softbank is not random but is done on a sample that is 40000/2000 = 20 bigger than the random sample of the government.
Yes so my question is 20 times bigger sample better than a much smaller random sample?
alsdia
I am not a statistician, so my analysis may not be rigorous but someone hopefully can bring more insights. The random test sample was very different and much smaller to the Softbank sample:
1) the random test was held by health ministry on less than 2000 people = 0.1 had corona antibodies = 14000 cases in Tokyo
2) Softbank test was on 40000 people = 0.43 had corona antibodies = (if extrapolate maybe uncorrectly to Tokto population) = 14000000x0.43/100 = 60200cases
Softbank is not random but is done on a sample that is 40000/2000 = 2000 bigger than the random sample of the government. Statistically which is more significant according to you? Is a smaller randon sample of 2000 still more representative than a 40000 sample of Softbank (where probably inside there are many kind of jobs, from cleaner to engineer, customer service, etc)?
alsdia
@ i@n
Yes, thank you for pointing that out. Using Softbank employees (they probably are more in contact with customers in shops, offices) statistically cannot represent the whole population. It was just an attempt to get an order of magnitude of what the numbers in Japan would be if extensive testing was allowed.
I have found also this link that I think is more random testing:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/16/national/science-health/tokyo-coronavirus-antibodies/
it says Tokyo has 0.1% rate of virus antibodies
Tokyo population is around 14milion = therefore 14,000,000x 0.1 /100 = 14000 cases.
This number would be less dramatic that my previous computation. So it would mean that around 14000 - 8,640 = 5360 cases go undetected.
i@n
Shouldn't you use the test results of the random testing of the population at large?
I don't know if it's in the link you posted but it's in one of the comments far above
shogun36
Yet I still see fools (as I pass by to go home,) at packed Izakaya's eating and laughing away like coronavirus doesn't exist..............This number is going be a lot bigger by the end of the year.
alsdia
sorry bad editing of the multiplication signs in my previous comment here's better written:
Covid19 cases in Japan = 0.43x0.01xJapanPopulation = 0.43x0.01x126,500,000 = 543,950
alsdia
@KnowBetter
Another source that confirms your estimation is the following
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/11/national/death-toll-coronavirus/#.XxD8EPP7RRZ
In Japan, this is the largest sample test to my knowledge until now. Therefore, let's do the math:
Covid19 cases in Japan = 0.430.01JapanPopulation = 0.430.01126,500,000= 543,950
that is on the same order of magnitude of your 429,466, around half million people
Christopher Glen
"And I believe in asking the government to beef up its measures. But I also believe in citizen/resident responsibility. Just go on Instagram and you have all these young people partying/clubbing. Lol! This virus is here to stay but the responsibility of fighting lies both on the government and society."
Agreed
Tobias J Gibson
It is unlikely that epidemiologists and public health experts would choose to use the JT comment boards to disseminate their opinion. If you are truly interested in there position regarding testing, you will have to consume a broader range of news sources. For example, here is an article from late April in which Dr. Yokokura Yoshitake, head of the Japanese Medical Association, comments that he believes test is insufficient:
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13327110
Similarly, in this article from May 18, Dr. Shibuya Kenji, a medical doctor and director of the Institute for Population Health, called for an increase in testing in anticipation of a second wave; a prediction which increasingly appears to be correct:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/18/national/second-wave-covid-19-cases-inevitable-japan-expert-says/
Finally, this article from 7 days ago, covers the continued failure to secure sufficient testing capacity in Japan in the opinion of the now defunct government advisory panel:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/07/10/national/emergency-japans-covid-19-testing/#.XxDpPZviuUk
The point is, there has been plenty of dissent amongst the experts in Japan and related to Japan's testing regime. Furthermore, the advice from the WHO epidemiologists and other nations epidemiological experts, such as Dr. Fauci in America, has been to call for more testing in their countries. An increase in cases now only illustrates that, despite the victory laps Abe and Aso took in the weeks proceeding the state of emergency, the Japan Model has not significantly out performed other countries models.
Personally, I believe Japan's low rates of infection and mortality are primarily attributable to Japan's pre-existing cultural habits around social interactions, mask wearing and community spread prevention, and high hygiene standards. I also actually think there is merit to the cluster contact tracing model, but only when it is used in conjunction with strict stay-at-home behavior. Once the corona cat is out of the bag, which it now is, then the targeted Japan Model is simple out-paced by the rate of infection and this entire issue is just dragged out for months and months.
End rant.
Jack
I don't know how this kind of reporting helps the problem. It only leads to people becoming more vitriolic towards various groups. If you're going to report about the number of cases, please report about the number of recoveries, about efforts being made to find a cure. Where is the balanced news reporting? Otherwise, you're only fanning the flames.
286 people to what? 10 million people? 15 million people? That's a pretty small number. And I don't mean to say that the lives of those 286 people don't matter. They do matter. What I'm saying here is the way these stories are angled seem to stem from wanting more clicks or just to rile up people.
And I believe in asking the government to beef up its measures. But I also believe in citizen/resident responsibility. Just go on Instagram and you have all these young people partying/clubbing. Lol! This virus is here to stay but the responsibility of fighting lies both on the government and society.
Strangerland
That's not true. I talked to my cousin in Canada yesterday - she tried to get a test as she had been in an area where a cluster had happened, and they wouldn't test her unless she is showing symptoms.
Canada's response has been quite effective against the virus I should add.
Sana Hamaya
"286" is numerical number of a week or 10 days before in Japan where need many days till PCR test, present infecteds will be far more than 286.
Hospitalized patients are gradually increasing, also infected person who wait for hospitalization are increasing, also patients who say I don't know why I was infected despite careful behavior are increasing.
But Japanese chief cabinet secretary still insists : ”Infection don't yet spread in the city”.
It is like wartime propaganda that ignored inconvenient fact.
by the way,
Japan's mortality inside patients is higher than US or Brazil.
Strangerland
It's weird how I've only seen laymen calling for more testing, and no epidemiologists. It seems the epidemiologists don't know epidemiology, and they should be finding out the real way to do it by reading JT comments.
carpslidy
Spinningplates
I am fine with either mass testing and the resulting quarantines or do nothing hope masks etc are the solution.
I am not okay with do a little more and then freaking out when doing a little unsurprisingly results in an increase in cases . Neither the economy or health benefits.
At the moment under the governments policy we as citizens are in the wrong for staying home and for going out.
as_the_crow_flies
This article referred to the problems for funeral directors of not being informed by hospitals of the cause of death. It mentioned that in general (not just during the pandemic) a third of deaths in Japan are from pneumonia.
Funeral workers therefore don't know whether they are handling a potentially infected body.
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200401/p2a/00m/0na/014000c
That looks like a lot of scope for 'not getting round to' testing for Covid19 before someone dies, and so then recording cause of death as pneumonia. And of course Covid can also cause serious kidney or heart failure too. It doesn't have to be a conspiracy either. Covid19 infection in a hospital seriously hits their bottom line, so many places will be reluctant to be associated with Covid19 patients., as they are already facing loss of business from patients who are staying away, worried about getting infected.
mmwkdw
Are these infections localized to the "Yamanote" sen area around Shinjukyu / Shibuya areas ?
spinningplates
Hi carpslidy.
There does exist a fine line line between 'nanny state' and 'responsible leadership'.
Japan has chosen some weird middle ground.
This is what I would prefer:
''B) Or we need to fix this once and for all so lets test hundreds of thousands a day starting in tokyo and all get a hold on it.
It cant continue to be, go spend money but its on you if you get sick.''
ClippetyClop
Who are 'they'?
Suicides have a 100% 'death rate', no virus can match this.
carpslidy
Hey spinningplates
Personally, there either needs to be an announcement of either,
A)Masks etc mean japan is fine do so go out and don't worry too much if you get sick and this is why. And we are only going to release hospital numbers daily.
B) Or we need to fix this once and for all so lets test hundreds of thousands a day starting in tokyo and all get a hold on it.
It cant continue to be, go spend money but its on you if you get sick.
spinningplates
''I am beggining to feel the government is and has been practicing herd immunity''
This is just my opinion, but I'll say it anyway.
I agree completely, The Governments 'fired' panel of experts even alluded to this. Studies are revealing this is a failed strategy as immunity of those infected has shown to only be effective for a few months (studies in Italy).
This virus is complex and the effects are random. Protect yourself and those around you by following best practice. The Government is NOT going to help you or provide relief. They have chosen the long road of financial pain and social difficulty,
HBJ
This sums up the general attitude to the virus here.
"Having another lockdown will be tough to handle... but I'm going to go ahead and unnecessarily visit an aquarium regardless and not do my bit to try and prevent another lockdown occurring."
drlucifer
You gain control by testing massively, tracking and isolating.
Japan has never done that, doesn't intend to and will never do it.
There is no other way of doing it.
Even in a hard lockdown if the virus is already in the system home infections will increase which is lower than if there is no lockdown.
I am beggining to feel the government is and has been practicing herd immunity because it remains a mystery why testing continues to remain embarrassingly 7 months into this pandemic.
At this stage, with the virus widely spread in society and a large percentage of unknown infection routes concentration on clusters is futile and waste.
Tobias J Gibson
To be honest, I feel Japan missed an opportunity to gain control of the virus when it prematurely ended the state of emergency in Mid May. The initial end date was stated as June 6, and those extra two weeks could have proven vital in limiting spread. Despite no official power to compel stay at home orders, a large proportion of Japanese business and citizens complied during the shutdown, including my own employer. But almost immediately after it ended there was a shift in behaviour. Now, with cases seemingly spread over a wider number of clusters as the virus transmitted in the subsequent month, any attempt to shutdown and limit movement will probably have to run even longer than the first to be effective.
As for the economic impact, that will occur regardless. Consumer confidence will continue to plummet, companies will take measures to offset losses to employees detriment, and hope of restarting international tourism with countries like NZ which have control.of the virus is undoubtedly going to be setback. Two weeks of economic activity in May might end up costing Japan much more in the long run.
Raw Beer
Hmmm, so why are they still constantly talking about this "pandemic"?
I suspect there will be a greater death rate from the increased suicides resulting from wrecking the economy.
drlucifer
Yesterday, when the number was 165 there was no mention of test performed as the number was test wasn't deemed as important. Today the number has and they are reminding us the number is up because testing has increased, all of a sudden testing is deemed important. Why do journalist even bother to attend this news briefings if they are so scared of asking questions.
mrtinjp
Once you are infected, remember there are no effective treatment.
The current worldwide recovery rate is around 93%, how do you think this is happening ?
TARA TAN KITAOKA
VERY sorry. More to come. Stay home.
erbaviva
who cares? the media are just hyping the disease. How many people died in Japan? I will live my life. If you want, hide under the rocks or live in Mars. The virus will be here forever.
Tom
This discussion needs to be about more than just death rate. Even people with mild symptoms may suffer long-term dibilitating effects. There's a bunch of people here acting as experts yet the story about this disease is still being written:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-warning-from-italy-effects-of-covid-19-could-be-worse-than-first-thought-12027348
Tokyoite
moreskeToday 06:01 pm JST
TokyoiteToday 02:42 pm JST
moreskeToday 01:23 pm JST
I think that the number of infections has always been high. They had no interest to publish the real numbers before the decision about the Olympics. Later Koike had no interest to communicate the real numbers before her re-election. But now they have to admit step by step the truth. Why should the situation in Tokyo be different than in the other big cities in the world?
If this is true, can you explain the incredibly low death rate?
2020/07/09 = 0
2020/07/10 = 0
2020/07/11 - 1
2020/07/12 = 0
2020/07/13 = 1
2020/07/14 = 0
2020/07/15 = 1
2020/07/16 =
If living people with symptoms cannot be tested, do you really think that the authorities test people postmortem? I don't trust the official statistics. There are too many political and economical interests.
*@moreske - ***Just to be clear, you believe there is a conspiracy to hide the causes of death?**
Christopher Glen
Travel.
Wait no. It’s too dangerous because of the nightlife workers we tested.
Stay at home.
But we still want you to work, just go straight home and don’t have fun.
The Olympics will be completely safe, don’t you know.
I for one am sick and tired of the nonsense spouted by Koike especially and Abe.
Going to exercise my own judgement
Christopher Glen
“agree. Or we could be in for a nightmare come autumn or winter.”
Going to give us more compensation? Abe won’t
Ricky Kaminski13
I guess this ain’t a drill Abesan and Koike san. We will now get to see if Japan is capable of producing sound leaders under extremely trying circumstances. How forthcoming they can be with the public and how well they can explain all of the difficult decisions that lie ahead, we wait with baited breathe, of course hoping for the best. Rise to the occasion, someone!
Mirai Hayashi
Another spike? ...who could have seen it coming? /end sarcasm
james
How many were tested and are asymptomatic? How many are seriously ill?
Japantime
It’s strange how they don’t mention anything about the number of deaths. It must not be as dangerous as previously believed.
KnowBetter
If Japan isn't testing in high numbers then it begs the question, are the testing those that have died with possible links to the virus. Pretty sure the answer is NO!
Around 1000 more people died in Tokyo in April 2020 than on average but Tokyo only reported just over 100 coronavirus related deaths. What caused to those 900 extra deaths?
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/11/national/death-toll-coronavirus/#.XxAUghF7lpg
Triring
KnowBetterToday 05:37 pm JST
Sorry but comparing oranges with apples will only lead to one big mistake.
Japan test people already showing symptoms while all other nations are testing at complete random.
We all already saw the results of the random antibody testing who may have been infected but cured showing a 0.17X% (Don't really remember the actual figure) that is the true apple to apple comparison.
moreske
TokyoiteToday 02:42 pm JST
moreskeToday 01:23 pm JST
I think that the number of infections has always been high. They had no interest to publish the real numbers before the decision about the Olympics. Later Koike had no interest to communicate the real numbers before her re-election. But now they have to admit step by step the truth. Why should the situation in Tokyo be different than in the other big cities in the world?
If this is true, can you explain the incredibly low death rate?
2020/07/09 = 0
2020/07/10 = 0
2020/07/11 - 1
2020/07/12 = 0
2020/07/13 = 1
2020/07/14 = 0
2020/07/15 = 1
2020/07/16 =
If living people with symptoms cannot be tested, do you really think that the authorities test people postmortem? I don't trust the official statistics. There are too many political and economical interests.
KnowBetter
These new numbers in Tokyo make a rate of 6% positive test results for Thursday of 286 confirmed cases for 4000 tested.
To date, Japan has 22,508 confirmed cases with 586,706 tested which makes that 3.836% testing positive.
Canada has 108,829 confirmed cases with 3,341,893 tested which makes that 3.257% testing positive. Just a little lower than Japan EXCEPT that Japan has only tested 4,639 per 1 million persons and Canada has tested 88,515 per 1 million persons. Japan's population is 126,459,029 packed into a very small set of islands and Canada's population is 37,755,152 spread out over a LOT MORE LAND.
If you were to increase Japan's testing rate to match Canada's numbers per million, at the current country wide 3.836% testing positive of Japan, you would be expected to see Japan's numbers for confirmed cases at least around 429,466. That number wouldn't be a stretch when you factor in all the numbers. The only reason we don't see those numbers is due to the low testing rate. It will however, testing or not, soon be reflected in the hospital numbers as the unknown numbers come to critical mass and overwhelm the medical system.
koujuke39
It's sad and scary.
daito_hak
Yeah the data released were actually very little commented in the media. Effectively there was 1000 more deaths in April than the average which corresponded to the month when the virus infections picked. The data does not give details on the causes of death which is very disturbing and basically we are left wondering what is going on. Japan is really not transparent since it has tried to artificially limit the extent of the infection by a ridiculous number of tests (6,215 tests per million people) and by not providing a detailed data on the mortality. In many countries where an excess of mortality has been observed, the excess was attributed to the COVID-19.
yakyak
Yes! And isn’t it funny how they informed us at lunch?? They had the numbers yesterday and thought, that’s pretty high, let’s just stop around 280 for the day, we can always manipulate the figures Friday!
tamanegi
Over 28000 Covid19 tests conducted in the Australian state of Victoria yesterday. Over 300 new cases announced today.
Tokyo tests 4000 and has over 250 new cases.
Just saying.
Thunderbird2
Scotland as a whole: 5 cases currently and NO DEATHS in the last 7 days. We've had a more restrictive lockdown than in England.
kurisupisu
I get slightly anxious when someone sits next to me on the train as there is no such thing as an empty seat on a rush hour train.
kyronstavic
That Tokyo website (https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/) isn't even showing the death graph anymore. Why? Because they aren't happening. Just a little more propaganda by omission.
While the number of positive test results is rising, for the vast, vast majority of people the virus is having little or no effect.
This suggests that the virus, while highly contagious, is not nearly as dangerous as the media and governments are making it out to be, but is a brilliant psychological weapon. Confuse people by giving them constantly changing, contradictory information and keep repeating a lie until people believe it. Goebbels would be proud.
Think critically, don't believe the government, and take your own precautions/ protect your family if you're concerned that the virus is a risk. But don't try to enforce a lockdown for a situation that does not warrant it.
Michael Machida
TODAY IS STILL THURSDAY. ITS ONLY 4:25PM. THURSDAY IS NOT COMPLETE YET.
MartinAP
@Orac
In Germany more than 50% died in nursing homes. Japan is not testing these people who died out of a sudden there.
In all european countries, after entering a nursing home, corona is worse than the grim reaper himself, but yeah Japan is different.
Raw Beer
I'll want a lock-down when many people die every day from Covid19.
I think those who want a lock-down now are the ones who want Japan to suffer.
Tokyoite
SoylentGreenToday 02:04 pm JST
Not conclusive, but interesting reading never the less. Definitely needs to be investigated more.
Jonathan Prin
Please show fatality rates Japan to compare to other countries.
@Tobias thanks.
Jonathan Prin
Why would Japanese be immune to covid19 consequences ?
It would contradict all medical science especially in acou try where over 25% of population is well over 65, that are people at risk. On the other side, less obesity for sure but does not mean Japanese have no illness.
Once you are infected, remember there are no effective treatment.
Tobias J Gibson
I assume you got this from the article: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/11/national/death-toll-coronavirus/
That article is actually about increased excess deaths in April, so if you did lift it from there thats pretty selective. From the same article, it also states.
Tokyo saw 10,107 deaths from all causes in the month (April), according to data released Thursday by the Metropolitan Government. That’s almost 12 percent higher than the average of the previous four years for which data are available, and 7 percent higher than the same month in 2019.
gakinotsukai
I don't trust Japan about death count (even i think it is low) because i saw kodokushi 孤独死 cases in country side.
Japan hasn't been able to count accurately "natural" deaths for decades.
Why would it be now with covid ?
Orac
How many deaths from pneumonia, lung disease, and respiratory failure have been 'officially' recorded since March. As you say yourself, someone could be dying with Covid, but the government choose to select the other illness as cause of death.
Nice try to bad the number don't back up your theory.
The capital saw 33,106 deaths in the three months through March, 0.4 percent fewer than the average of the previous four years for the same period,
Please explain
Strangerland
I don't believe I said that.
Patrick
I am addicted to reading comments on any COVID related article here; the back and forth and entrenched characters are fascinating.
TigersTokyoDome
As Strangers says, do we trust the death stats from a government that has cheated on testing.
SoylentGreen
TokyoiteToday 02:45 pm JST
SoylentGreenToday 02:04 pm JST
Orac
Wow, give Japan a hand.
Yes please do.
Japan Covid 19 deaths 984
USA 130,000 deaths
Germany 10,000 deaths
UK 45,000 deaths
France 30,000 deaths
How is west doing when it comes down to the only number that really counts? The number of deaths!
It is not rocket science, but in the case of the west its Mortality Analyses. The west is dying by thousands.
blahblah222
Japan will never have a lockdown no matter what the cases are.The government have essentially backed itself into a corner and can no longer take any actions to even attempt to slow down spread. I can bet even if there are 100x the cases, there will not be any lockdown outside of shutting down night work businesses, which is their scapegoat.
The "go to campaign" have already been given a go ahead for the 22nd, enacting any restrictions will contradict the campaign. That means at the earliest, the government cannot take any action until the "go to campaign" finishes.
With the Olympic decision slated for March of next year, I simply see no time window for the government to enact any covid control. Enacting any restrictions after December of this year will likely jeopardize Olympics from going forward, which the Japanese government already said will go ahead no matter what.
TigersTokyoDome
Remember, Koike lifted up a signboard that said emergency yesterday. So we'll all be fine....
Strangerland
Are you trolling us, or do you truly believe your conclusion can logically be made from your premise? You say 'think', but I am unclear on whether you thought, seeing as your conclusion cannot logically be made from your premise.
yakyak
They should seriously just lock everything down for 2 weeks. In that time frame they can come up with a plan and implement their strategy. Otherwise it will be too little too late as the entire city will become infected. 2 weeks or 2 years, take your pick.
ulysses
No they are not!! Testing is done based on contact tracing and there may be some variance from the actual numbers, I am yet to see a large one.
Can you let everyone know how you arrived at that conclusion?
HAMBURGER
@ Those who don't want to lockdown- at what point do you change your mind? 2500 cases per day? Never?
Are you perhaps rooting for Japan to suffer?
daito_hak
Nope.
TigersTokyoDome
WilliB, glad someone trusts this government. How many deaths from pneumonia, lung disease, and respiratory failure have been 'officially' recorded since March. As you say yourself, someone could be dying with Covid, but the government choose to select the other illness as cause of death. As Covid usually produces another illness which is the cause of death (pneumonia, respiratory failure) so gives this government a reason not to record death by Covid.
CS
Yes, and when Tokyo becomes more transparent ( which they are not) The number will shoot up to the levels of the west.
Pukey2
We'll cross that bridge when we get there.
blahblah222
Japan will have no further measures. If there's any measures, it will not be for controlling the spread, it would be to get more people to gather and attend events in enclosed spaces, eat-in, and travel.
There's absolutely no reason why the virus numbers should go down, as even the 5000 person limit on events and all other rules in place is planned to be completely removed by August, and there will not be even "urging" to reduce full packed events.
Reported numbers are useless, since the number of reported depends on the number of tests the Japanese government will allow. But the positivity rate (now at ~6%) should continue to climb, at the current trend, will likely be 6.5%-7% by next week.
Haaa Nemui
Errrr... it doesn’t actually mean that at all. It could be a fact but it’s by no means a guarantee.
ulysses
If it is not ,will you apologize?
Unnecessary fear mongering by those who have no more knowledge than the rest of us.
The virus doesn't follow mathematical models , it can be more or less , depends on what measures you have in place.
Mocheake
The numbers keep going up while the testing stays low but let's focus more on how we can stage those Olympics next year. Who knows - maybe the coronavirus will suddenly decide to leave and we can have the Games this year. A win-win for everyone. Yippee.
masterblaster
i wonder if this virus can be passed around by mosquito.
TigersTokyoDome
Orac, incorrect. London recorded 326 new cases in a week. Tokyo is almost matching that per day. Between 3rd - 9th July London had 326 new cases. The week before that was 288.
WilliB
Tigerstokyodom:
If they need a post-mortem to test for Covid, obviously the cause of death was NOT Covid. They might have died with it, but not from it. Think.
WilliB
In order to keep the panic up? If they were reporting death rates, there would be no panic and hysteria.
CS
When you wear a costume Koike, you cannot be trusted.
TigersTokyoDome
memoryfix, so you trust the death statistics provided by the government who fixed the numbers? (no testing)
I hear that they don't post-mortem test for Covid.
Orac
280 cases in Tokyo.
4,244 in LA County, USA
2,514 In Miami, USA
530 in London.
Wow give the west an hand.
Tokyoite
SoylentGreenToday 02:04 pm JST
They don't do it.
Any proof?
Tokyoite
moreskeToday 01:23 pm JST
I think that the number of infections has always been high. They had no interest to publish the real numbers before the decision about the Olympics. Later Koike had no interest to communicate the real numbers before her re-election. But now they have to admit step by step the truth. Why should the situation in Tokyo be different than in the other big cities in the world?
If this is true, can you explain the incredibly low death rate?
2020/07/09 = 0
2020/07/10 = 0
2020/07/11 - 1
2020/07/12 = 0
2020/07/13 = 1
2020/07/14 = 0
2020/07/15 = 1
2020/07/16 = 1
memoryfix
Hundreds testing positive. Over weeks. AND resulting in almost no deaths! There’s been enough time. Could it be, as one brave scientist here has suggested, - This disease is weakening as it goes through populations. Meaning WE are killing IT in the battle. Can it be so, and if so, will the powers that be let this be known publicly?
theResident
@HAMBURGER: Oh! There you are again, with your hysterical call for lockdown.
kurisupisu
So, the infection is looking to be around 7% in the Tokyo area....
carpslidy
The s.o.e or stay home according to the diet and panel of experts as stated today 評価がなかった=Was unnecessary
At least listen to the experts before calling for a lockdown.
Aly Rustom
I agree. Or we could be in for a nightmare come autumn or winter.
Okibum
4,000 tests! WOW...... slowclap
SoylentGreen
They don't do it.
SoylentGreen
sir_bentley28Today 12:37 pm JST
Think for yourself?!! With what information? Shall I estimate that there were just 123 cases today then? Does the information sound like baseless possibilities to you?
Let's all just think for ourselves and make up our own facts! Don't be sheep; be even stupider than that!
>
Aly Rustom
absolutely
Michael Machida
How many Tokyo-ites actually know anyone who has COVID-19?
Tokyoite
PGBToday 12:28 pm JST
The numbers are already way beyond that. As others have been repeating over and over, this number is meaningless if we don't know how many tests were conducted on that day.
People keep stating this, yet there is a website that lists daily the number of tests. Am I the only one with Google?
https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/
oIdman_13
Clearly this is all the fault of nightlight workers and young people, right?
Chabbawanga
Anyone got a link to a reliable source regarding postmortem testing for covid?
HAMBURGER
Lockdown for 6 weeks starting right now!
blahblah222
The numbers and testing are strictly controlled at the moment.
The government is trying to lay all blame on night workers, so night workers are all being tested, so that they can report a greater % of people as night workers, but other people still have an extremely difficult time to obtain testing. Despite night work never going above 30-50% of infected, the government still insists that there are NO covid spread outside of these establishments. I bet that night workers actually do NOT have a higher infected rate than other professions, it is just the distorted selection bias via testing that more night workers being reported as positive.
The government wants to get everything back to pre-covid as soon as possible, e.g. ending all work from home, etc.; therefore, they needed to convince the population that office work, meetings, seminars, nomikais etc. are completely risk free. Of course, the go to campaign must also move ahead on schedule, so there's also the task of convincing the majority of Japan to travel all at once in obon again.
As far as the national government is concerned, covid spread simply doesn't exist in Japan.
https://mainichi.jp/articles/20200715/k00/00m/010/137000c
Ascissor
That's a relief then. Nightlife workers are never in close contact with anyone else /s
moreske
I think that the number of infections has always been high. They had no interest to publish the real numbers before the decision about the Olympics. Later Koike had no interest to communicate the real numbers before her re-election. But now they have to admit step by step the truth. Why should the situation in Tokyo be different than in the other big cities in the world?
Cricky
As a well educated slightly intelligent person I can tell you, this virus is well out of control. The none testing the absence of any autopsies is just stupidly it's like putting a pilot in a plane with not enough fuel to get home. When will these idiots get a grip and actually do their job? Stupidly really should not be repeated but here we are.
Frank
This is wrong on so many levels. That Socceroo has clear disregard for crossing etiquette.
Zeram1
Have no fears according to the Finance Minister Taro Aso, for Japanese are superior with higher “cultural standards” which even make them basically less prone to covid. Always trust this government.
Kitchener Leslie
That’s what happens when you have a pathetic state of emergency.
Half measures for two months was completely useless.
ClippetyClop
To be fair to him, he eventually did run into a wolf though.
rainyday
So maybe we can expect the government to continue to do nothing, only with a greater sense of urgency then?
Christopher Glen
I’m taking Koike as seriously as the boy who cried wolf
Vinke
@Objective
Because also asymptomatic people and people with "mild" symptoms spread it forward.
They are far more dangerous for others, than the seriously ill or dead.
kwatt
Why noon time? Time for announcing number of day's infection is different everyday. Announcement time should be 18:00 pm everyday. Noon time is too early to announce it. It may be more than 300 by evening today. Why not fix the time of announcement?
Christopher Glen
Most of these cases are among nightlife workers.
They won’t test Shinjuku office workers because they will find cases of asymptomatic people and they will be forced to shut down.
Nightlife workers are a convenient scape goat. They can be blacklisted without damaging Japan inc too much.
At this point, I’m not taking Koike that seriously.
Just the other day she said she still wants the Olympics
sir_bentley28
If you read through it, it sounds like possibilities to me. Nothing more.
Think for yourself, don't be sheep!
JPGB
The numbers are already way beyond that. As others have been repeating over and over, this number is meaningless if we don't know how many tests were conducted on that day.
ohara
If theyre admitting to 280 the real number is stupendous.
CS
They are gradually easing us into it. I n a week it will be at 500
Name28
The more they test, the more cases will be found. Anyway, I think during State of Emergency real cases were more, just tests were less.
So wearing masks and washing hands will be always helpful anyway.
Objective
Why not just report the numbers of those who are seriously ill or dead?
Everyone on here seems to agree that the positive test numbers are not accurate so they shouldn't report them.
But I guess that wouldn't lead to clicks, would it?
ClippetyClop
Blimey, that ain't good. I've seen a lot of Tokyo cars here in town this last few weekends, and when this rainy season ends even more are gonna be flooding the surrounding kens with their potential virus.
The govt has some big decisions to make, and soon.