Japan reports record 795 new daily virus cases amid resurgence

I think the data you presented is consisted with the claim that usage/availability of lodging facilities have went down.

From what I recall was it you who also said that of the total number of hospitalized cases only 14 were serious?

If there were lodging facilities available then they would have been admitted to those facilities first.

Unfortunately, I don't think that data really speaks to the availability of lodging facilities, it merely indicates that 168 people are currently using those facilities, while 392 are at their own homes. Whether that is because the remaining 1,681 patients are unsuitable for lodging due to severity of their symptoms or lack of space is not indicated.

With regard to serious cases, that number is now 21 patients in Tokyo:  

[ https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/ ]

Also, it should be noted that serious patients are defined as 'those patients in the ICU or in need of ventilators'. I am not medically trained, and do not have specific information as to individual cases, but I would speculate that there are a significant number of cases which fall somewhere between 'minor' and 'serious' (i.e. unsuitable for lodging/home, but not requiring a ventilator).

I actually discovered another interesting site with regard to available hospital beds:

https://www.stopcovid19.jp/

This site is limited in that it merely lists active cases, rather than those actually hospitalized (i.e. Tokyo has 2241 rather than 1681), but it does show the number of available beds (or at least their best accounting of beds) against active cases in each prefecture. It also indicates trends up or down in each prefecture.

As I did deeper into the data more, there are some further interesting details. For example, according to [ https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/ ] 31 of the 336 cases reported for July 23 (roughly 10%) were aged under 20, and roughly half of those where 9 and under. According to [ https://www.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/ENGLISH/ABOUT/HISTORY/history03.htm ] the child population (ages 0-14) is around 10% of Tokyo's population. I am not drawing any conclusions from the limited data, particularly when there are plenty of studies indicating that children are lower risk for infection; however, it at least illustrates to me that discounting children as potential carriers or sufferers entirely is not warranted.

Finally, looking at [ https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html ] (excellent site) the r0 has now risen again to around 1.4, after dropping to below one during the lockdown. The r0 indicates how many people will be infected by a carrier of the virus; less than 1 means the virus is unable to sustain itself through infection, while more than 1 indicates cases will increase. It is not exact science, and is variable according to locality, however that site has calculated the number based on the actual reported cases. This illustrates the effectiveness of the lockdown in prevent the spread of the virus, and in fact indicates that a lockdown, if maintained for sufficient time, could see the virus eliminated (for those who claim that its never going away).

I think the data you presented is consisted with the claim that usage/availability of lodging facilities have went down.

From what I recall was it you who also said that of the total number of hospitalized cases only 14 were serious?

If there were lodging facilities available then they would have been admitted to those facilities first.

Sorry I myself have no citations, I'd like to keep myself up to date but owing to limited time, I can't read much, I rely on discussions with and citations of people such as yourself and Luis

宿泊施設が十分に確保されているような地域では、軽症者等は宿泊療養を基本とする。

My Japanese is not very good, unfortunately, but I would read that as stating, in essence:

'In those areas where lodging is sufficient, those lodging's shall be used for the treatment of people suffering minor illness etc.'

I am happy to be corrected if that is wrong. If I am not wrong however, I don't see how that supports your point that it is government policy to hospitalize asymptomatic and minor cases? It seems to indicate to contrary.

The number of hospitalizations and usage of these lodging facilities went down, and many localities have stopped the use of these, since the Emergency declaration stopped, in other words, it is the default to use lodging facilities, but if there are no lodging facilities available, asymptomatic and people with mild symptoms will be hospitalized.

Again, you are making claims that are not supported by any citation. Admittedly, I don't generally consume information in the original Japanese, so something may be getting lost in translation, but according to the Status of test positives found on [ https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/ ]:

964 people are currently hospitalized

168 people are receiving treatment at lodging facilities

392 people are recuperating at home

717 people are 'hospitalization / Medical treatment, etc.'

(This last one may be a translation problem, as I am unclear as to the difference between this and being hospitalized? In Japanese, they are 入院 and 入院・療養等調整中 respectively)

This gives a total of 2241 active cases in Tokyo. In an article on another English news site [ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/07/23/national/tokyo-coronavirus-cases-top-300/ ], the total for today included roughly 15% asymptomatic cases. If we assume that percentage is representative of asymptomatic amongst those active cases, that would account for 336 people, roughly the same as those listed as 'recuperating at home'.

Overall, I have been unable to find independent corroborating reports for your claims, however I am happy to read them if you have some available.

I don't recommend masks to those who are not symptomatic because there is evidence that mask usage in the wide population can lead to a higher infection probability for those wearing the masks.

Granted this could be true when the person is around people who are not wearing masks.

When among people who are also wearing masks however, everyone's chances of being infected will be a lot less esp if compared to the situation where everyone is not wearing one.

so you still do not recommend wearing masks. Your choice but I just want to say people are wearing masks precisely because of the good point you mentioned they realized they may unknowingly infect others if they don't.

I don't recommend masks to those who are not symptomatic because there is evidence that mask usage in the wide population can lead to a higher infection probability for those wearing the masks.

But if people feel like they need to wear a mask, I'm not at all against that. The only objection I would have is that it can lead to short supply, like it happened around May.

This is not the current government policy regarding hospitalization. 

I'm aware of the lodging policy, but the policy also says the following:

宿泊施設が十分に確保されているような地域では、軽症者等は宿泊療養を基本とする。

The number of hospitalizations and usage of these lodging facilities went down, and many localities have stopped the use of these, since the Emergency declaration stopped, in other words, it is the default to use lodging facilities, but if there are no lodging facilities available, asymptomatic and people with mild symptoms will be hospitalized.

Thank you @Luis David Yanez, @Tobias J Gibson for the posts, people need to see more enlightening facts like those.

The old policy mentioned by Luis was part of the reason for the strict screening for the tests, as I understand it, to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed.

@Luis, so you still do not recommend wearing masks. Your choice but I just want to say people are wearing masks precisely because of the good point you mentioned they realized they may unknowingly infect others if they don't.

@Tobias

I agree it's very important that our eyes are wide open particularly on this matter now so please continue to post relevant info you come across.

It's very important also that people on both sides debating about the issue do so well informed and having the same information as much as possible.

Not sure if you people are aware of this, but even if you are asymptomatic, and really do not need to be hospitalized, you are going to be hospitalized as a policy thing if you turn positive in a PCR test.

This is not the current government policy regarding hospitalization. The below is from the May 25 revision of the Basic Policies for Novel Coronavirus Disease Control by the Government of Japan (Summary) released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare in Japan:

(4) Medical care, etc. i) A hospital treatment system will be secured that focuses on providing medical care to those with severe symptoms - Asymptomatic pathogen carriers and patients with mild symptoms who do not require hospitalization will recuperate at lodging facilities, etc. Temporary lodging facilities such as hotels will be secured and managed for this purpose. Use information communication devices to monitor the health status of those who recover at home for reasons such as childcare.

126 million people in Japan. And no deaths today at all. And none yesterday. And the days before that? One? Two? Three?

This was posted on 22 July 2020. It is extraordinarily difficult to find complete official death statistics or information publicly in Japan. It appears to have been removed from all official statistical tracking sites, including mhlw.go.jp and stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp This site is updated to 21 July 2020, and claims to use data directly from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. It lists one death for the 21st:

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

It may not change your substantive point, but the facts do matter here for both sides of the debate. It is really important we are eyes wide open at the moment, because those who are pretending they know this will end up as nothing or as the zombie apocalypse are either misinformed or disingenuous.

But in the end no one wants to suffer and die from covid-19 so if your asymptomatic then chances are you will live and not feel a thing but you might cause others to get sick and not be aware. Which is the better?

The only good thing I can see of all this panic and drama is that people are FINALLY realizing that they can cause the death of others.

I know it has become almost a taboo to compare this to the flu, but the flu basically has never disappeared because it is also a illness that can cause people to not feel much, and still spread it, and even if they have symptoms, there are so many people who have refused for years to take the most basic precautions, and continue to go to work, and to shop even thou they are sick.

People die yearly because of this. So my question is, how many people have you killed in your life without even knowing it? It is not a good feeling to think about it, but it is probable that you have at least contributed to the early death of someone without even realizing it.

But it doesn't really makes sense to basically stop our lives out of fear that maybe something we do might have a dramatic consequence on some other person. The best we can do, I think, is take good precaution when it really matters.

Wear a mask if you are sick, there is this narrative that asymptomatic people are just as contagious as symptomatic people, but that's just not true. First, asymptomatic people are not producing excessive nasal secretions, and are not constantly coughing or sneezing. Also, just by the nature of what it means to be asymptomatic, the viral load of an asymptomatic person is way less than that of someone with symptoms.

So even if you are not sick, engage in common sense etiquete that EVERYONE should do regardless if we are in the middle of a pandemic or not. Cover your mouth with your elbow and look down when coughing or sneezing, wash your hands after going out, etc...

Even if you do everything right, there is still a chance someone might get sick, but at that point I think it is not reasonable to blame people for it, viruses and bacteria have existed way longer than humans, and they are not going to disappear any time soon, they are part of life, and we, for the most part are able to continue with our lives even if these dangers exist in this world.

This is just yet another one of those risks, stop acting as if it is something completely out of the ordinary, or as if humans are not constantly having to fight with millions of different microorganisms in order to stay alive.

May as well get used to it until a vaccine comes along if you haven't already.

At least with these numbers of recorded cases and the "go to campaign' we will know once and for all if this is as deadly a virus as some fear or not as others including myself think it is.

"America, Brasil and India have all prioritised the economy over health of their people. How’s it turned out for them?"

It is inevitable in India if you know the density of the population and its still pretty low compared to % of population. You probably never been to that country, I think numbers are meaningless at this time. It is more than 6 months now and deathrate is low and there is no point in grinding everything to halt before that vaccine shows up and typically vaccinations for stuff like this is not going to work that successfully. People just need to apply common sense and take precautions erroring on the benefit of doubt (wear masks, work from home if possible, wash hands, do not travel if not necessary). Trying to control this by stopping everything is not going to work with globalized economy. In a developed country, I expect most people to use common sense especially in Japan where most people are generally self restrained in a good way.

asymptomatic

If i had a choce at Luis I rather be asymptomatic and carry on with life and not know if i had the virus or not and might be spreading the disease around. But in the end no one wants to suffer and die from covid-19 so if your asymptomatic then chances are you will live and not feel a thing but you might cause others to get sick and not be aware. Which is the better?

126 million people in Japan. And no deaths today at all. And none yesterday. And the days before that? One? Two? Three?

In fact, throughout this spike recently, we’ve been waiting for the increased cases to translate to a substantial bump up in the deaths. It has not happened. Not among either the young nor among the elderly. There’s been lots of time in this spike for so many of those testing positive to infect higher risk groups. But even in the at risk groups, virtually no people are dying. Many people in those higher risk categories must have been infected too. But not dying.

Nobody’s talking about this in the headlines. They’re evidently told not to. It can’t be they are so blind as to not have noticed.

So what do you think? Who knows? We were hoping at one time that hot weather would burn out the disease. That didn’t happen. But I’m thinking that autumn weather will not bring on a big increase either. I’m thinking we will just amble along with these case statistics and with relatively very few deaths. And that we will just get used to it and get on with life. I think lockdowns would just delay the course which could possibly weaken. Sure, I can stay in my room, you can stay in your room, and case numbers will plummet. Until we go outside again.

Lockdown, cases drop, Outside, up again. Lockdown, drop. Outside, up again. What kind of life is that?

This pandemic is NOT to be taken lightly. It is like a wildfire and the smallest lapse in vigilance will cause it to reignite and spread quickly.

That's it then, we're doomed. There will always be people who don't social distance / wear masks / wash their hands.

In terms of hospitalisations, the number has increased from 280 on 1 July to 949 on 21 July. That is roughly a 338% increase. If it continues to rise at a similar rate, then Tokyo could run out of hospital beds within a month.

Not sure if you people are aware of this, but even if you are asymptomatic, and really do not need to be hospitalized, you are going to be hospitalized as a policy thing if you turn positive in a PCR test.

There are some horror stories of people who were asymptomatic, lost their jobs, because even after testing negative 2 times (as the policy requires), and being able to left the hospital, their jobs discriminated against them, out of an irrational fear of infection.

But you can continue to panic and continue to support the colapse of modern society ;)

Its about time they made it to this number as they are late in testing compare to the USA and other countries....

No point in reporting numbers anymore the issue is out of their control. We need a total lock down. Prison style for 8 weeks called martial law. We need medicine and treatment of this virus it has been spreading around since last year of November and yet no mechanism of treatment is being announced? Answer is total lock down. Just need to give it a try it never hurts to try to resolve an issue.

The government already did survey testing to determine extent of spread in population of those who have been infected with sars-cov-2 in select areas of Japan.

No need to spend sleepless nights imagining the numbers.

@Hervé L'Eisa

Again, the numbers are a smokescreen. The real numbers of those who have it or have already had it and recovered would be magnitudes higher if widespread testing were actually available.

Totally agree with you. In Tokyo we need to wait around 10 DAYS to reach the same number of tests New York does in ONE DAY. Compare NYC daily tests

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

around 35000 tests per day compared to Tokyo 3500 tests per day.

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/cards/number-of-tested/

200 new cases with 3500 tests, so what if Tokyo did 35000 tests per day? Will we find 2000 new cases? Not impossible. I would bet highly probable.

If a Tokyo citizen wishes to be tested, he/she should be allowed to do it in a safe and fast way. And free of charge. Technologies are there, for example https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-research/australian-researchers-invent-20-minute-coronavirus-blood-test-idUSKCN24I0OR

in 20 minutes you can get the results. Not 3 days... There are even new tests using your breath to detect the virus, like this one https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/in-south-africa-covid-19-breath-test-trial-set-for-june-67631

not even blood involved, takes 5 minutes. Instead of putting money in Abe Masks and Abe Travels, why not putting the money into these new kind of tests techniques and software tracing technologies, so that everyone can work and travel safely while waiting for the vaccine solution.

wouldn't it be useful to mention the daily deaths? 

If they do that then probably most days we would be talking about literally nothing

GoodlucktoyouToday  02:55 pm JST

10000 is just a normal day in big US or Brazilian cities.

We should be thankful.

Tokyo has 17-19m people.

Totally agree with you. Not to belittle the problem but this kind of reporting is just meant to get clicks rather than responsible reporting.

Another kind of reporting that's meant to agitate people even further. Sheesh.

Again, the numbers are a smokescreen. The real numbers of those who have it or have already had it and recovered would be magnitudes higher if widespread testing were actually available. Elsewhere, the numbers are exaggerated by including people not actually tested but "presumed positive" including probably many deaths falsely attributed to Covid-19, such as the motorcyclist in Florida.

Quote from this article: "Since a nationwide state of emergency was entirely lifted in late May, there has been a surge in the number of new infections in Tokyo and other urban areas across Japan."

Ergo: The state of emergency should not have been lifted.

Also "Go to" was a very bad idea, as well as being very bad English.

Whether you want to admit it or not, the pandemic is going out of control in Japan. Meanwhile the LDP's morons are sitting on their thumps in denial.

I am sorry to hear. Your country sounds a real awful place. I hope you get PR.

@Fighto! Thank you! I'm from the US, but I'm literally too ashamed and embarrassed to call myself American these days.. I really do hope I can get PR because I'm not going back to the US in its current state even if someone paid me.. :(

Back home is an epic disaster zone and I don't think I'll ever move back after all this.

I am sorry to hear. Your country sounds a real awful place. I hope you get PR.

In the biggest city in the world, those numbers are about as successful as they come. I'm so damn glad I moved to Tokyo! Back home is an epic disaster zone and I don't think I'll ever move back after all this.

On the train I am standing in (in Japan) right now, I can measure the social distancing in millimeters!!!

The true numbers would be FAR HIGHER if widespread testing were actually available which it isn't.

10,000 cases over 6 months, so not even 2,000 a month. Oh I forgot, because of low testing Japan's numbers are actually in the tens of millions right? Even though there have been no corresponding increase in deaths. Japan baaaaahd!

c J-Gov agencies still insist on corresponding via fax it takes THREE DAYS to get any usable data

Lol sending data via faxes takes three days?

The cumulative number doesn't show a real, ongoing picture. Though meaning neither shame nor honor, it could mislead the public.

Of the total of about 10,000, 7,513 have already discovered; 327 dead; currently 949 hospitalized, of whom only 14 seriously ill. Better focus on active cases.

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

How can you tell? I have no idea how made up numbers look like.

Anyone think these Tokyo numbers are weird? 238, 237. 290, 293, 286. Don't they look just made up?

Hustle' a shutdown is not possible, either legally or practically. Best to get it over with, attain some herd immunity and let life go on. Japan is fortunate that there are not so many underlying factors that make the disease worse in other countries- poor hygiene, obesity, drug use, high blood pressure, diabetes, and so on.

It is at best a minor annoyance and should be treated as such.

And, all these cases have been spread within the communities. They have not come from overseas. There are more cases now than when the pandemic started.

These cases will continue to grow, possibly for years, unless Tokyo goes into a full on shutdown to keep people apart. it’s pretty obvious that asking and urging is not working.

According to Worldometer, Japan has had 25,000 cases of covid cumulatively. Of these, 20,000 have recovered, 1,000 have died. So at present there are about 4,000 active cases in Japan. The number of fatalities has been less than 2 a day for a month.

Given that about a million people a year die in Japan from all causes, this is barely a rounding error. A thousand deaths from covid, though tragic, amounts to one fatality per 100,000 people. Nothing to get too exorcised about.

10000 is just a normal day in big US or Brazilian cities.

We should be thankful.

Tokyo has 17-19m people.

Correction: The total number of cases in Tokyo reached 10,000 probably last Sunday, but because the gerontocratic J-Gov agencies still insist on corresponding via fax it takes THREE DAYS to get any usable data.

This pandemic is NOT to be taken lightly. It is like a wildfire and the smallest lapse in vigilance will cause it to reignite and spread quickly.

Total cases so far is largely meaningless. Current active cases and testing numbers are what matters.

On July 15, the metropolitan government raised its pandemic alert to the highest of four available levels, indicating "infections are spreading."

Infections are spreading, and then what? Raising the alert level or lighting up structures does jack to contain the virus.

Sorry had a typo... Do you know that this covid test is a test for a genetic DNA marker of a protein and the same marker also present in common flu and many other virus of the same family . All those test could be nothing more than testing a common cold... Lol before you vote negative please do own research. It's all written at government health websites.

That is false, the DNA sequence is specific for covid, and they are 2 sequences, there is no realistic possibility that other coronaviruses can give positive results for both of them. Related viruses can have proteins with the same or similar function, but their DNA sequences are not the same. And no, it is obviously not written at government health websites because it is not true.

Tommy Eddy Kookabura.....

Other than the HE gene from the coronavirus being homologous to the influenza C virus HA1 gene, what study/government information are you talking about

Do you know that this covid test is a test for a genetic DNA marker of a protein and the same marker also present in common flu and many other virus of the same family .

I assume you are referring to the PCR test, in which case that claim has been debunked:

https://en.fij.info/archives/pcr-test-also/

Sorry had a typo... Do you know that this covid test is a test for a genetic DNA marker of a protein and the same marker also present in common flu and many other virus of the same family . All those test could be nothing more than testing a common cold... Lol before you vote negative please do own research. It's all written at government health websites.

In terms of reporting, I have to agree that it would be nice to get more details as to active cases, hospitalisations, deaths and tests conducted, as well as data for Japan and other prefectures (this is Japan Today right?).

I live in Aichi, which just broke its previous daily record by double (25 up to 53). We have local reporting which notes location and tracing as well, which indicates this 'wave' is much more spread across the prefecture and infecting a broader age range. I dont have answers, but I would like at least to see some real acknowledgement by the powers that be that things are not going to plan...

Do you know that this covid test is a test for a generic DNA marker and the same marker also present in common flu. All those test could be nothing than testing a common cold... Lol

I thought Japan and it’s “cultural standard” beat the virus. That’s what Taro Aso said. So it must be true?!

Of course! Like the stable genius said " If you test more you find more cases SO Slow the testing down please!"

And that way you beat the virus by putting your head in the sand and repeating the nihonjin ron Mantra to yourself over and over while saying "we don't have cases so we don't need to test."

For perspective, 16.57% of the total cases as of Tuesday occured in the last week (roughly 4% of the total time since the first case was reported).

Or put another way, 3591 cases (36.58% of yesterdays total) reported this month as of Tuesday (roughly 15% of the time passed since the first case was reported).

In terms of hospitalisations, the number has increased from 280 on 1 July to 949 on 21 July. That is roughly a 338% increase. If it continues to rise at a similar rate, then Tokyo could run out of hospital beds within a month.

Death data is no longer available of the official reporting site for Tokyo, however it appears as if there has been no sudden increase as of yet. The only proviso being that the death rates usually mimic case trends with around 3 week delay (i.e. we may start seeing them increase within a week or two).

Pointing to deaths and hospitalisations, or other countries is fine, lets hope they don't follow similar trends. But it is wilful blindness to deny that the virus spread is escalating and that the Japan Model has been successful in limiting the spread.

That is not the active total.

And that is just the people who have been tested!

That is the same as 1 day in Florida, USA. I hope we keep doing whatever it we are doing because I think its working.

I thought Japan and it’s “cultural standard” beat the virus. That’s what Taro Aso said. So it must be true?!

Cumulative total... is that active total, or does it include recovered patients, too?

travel campaign, Trying to increase capacities to 10,000, all whilst covid cases keep rising throughout the great country of Nippon.

America, Brasil and India have all prioritised the economy over health of their people. How’s it turned out for them?