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Koike calls for fewer outings; says state of emergency up to PM

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By Ju-min Park and Naomi Tajitsu

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but said it was up to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to declare a state of emergency to tackle it.

Sounds like another pol saying 'I'm not responsible for that'. Backatcha, PM.

21 ( +25 / -4 )

"It's probably bad to say this, but I hope his death helps Japanese, who still don't seem to be taking this virus seriously, start to change their attitude," one tweeted.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I read this came from ex prime Minister Hatoyama.

12 ( +13 / -1 )

How bad does it need to get before there is a lockdown? Do they understand that if the numbers really spike it is too late for the lockdown to do it's job?

16 ( +21 / -5 )

avoid(ing) outings in the evenings and at weekends

That's sure to be effective with an estimated 8.5 million using the subway, never mind trains and buses, in Tokyo daily.

18 ( +19 / -1 )

Millions of people are getting on crowded subway trains at this very moment-Tokyo has to be properly shutdown to stop the virus.

Half-measures won’t do...

20 ( +23 / -3 )

So more people have to die before someone pulls their head out?

15 ( +19 / -4 )

@bungle

she is the mayor of Tokyo, what do you expect her to do? She legitimately does not have the authority to put the city into lockdown. At least she is actually showing up and pleading with the public as strongly as she legally can.

4 ( +15 / -11 )

A classic case of paralysis by analysis.

Lock down Tokyo now.

8 ( +12 / -4 )

On my morning commute this morning (Odakyu, Chiyoda) it was completely packed. shoulder to shoulder as usual. The good thing was everyone but for two people in my car were wearing masks.

One newpaper-reading oyaji who was not wearing a mask was gagging and coughing the whole time.

15 ( +17 / -2 )

@Bungle: As pointed out, she can't do anything from a legal standpoint. She doesn't have the power, and nor will be given it. She is doing a great deal more than Central Government appear to be doing.

12 ( +14 / -2 )

206 tests performed yesterday in all Japan.

That’s one way to ensure there’s not spike in cases!

28 ( +30 / -2 )

I wonder how long it would take Japan to announce a state of emergency given the present situation.

7 ( +8 / -1 )

@Beanie...exactly! I was shocked when I saw the data on Ministry of Health website! Seems like they have started to limit the testing again just to keep the number of infected on record to a minimal. Shame on the Japanese Authorities for hiding the reality!

14 ( +16 / -2 )

@SauloJpn I couldn't have said it any better. The longer we delay the less effective a lockdown will be. There are no excuses at this point.

And, yeah, still lots of crowded events.

6 ( +7 / -1 )

Tokyo's governor on Monday called on residents to avoid outings in the evenings and at weekends

Yeah, but pack into the cattle trucks every morning to go to work and support Japan Inc. You only have one life to give for your company.

19 ( +19 / -0 )

Hopefully Tedros was able to talk some sense into Abe last night. If not Tedros, maybe Able should listen to Fauci

"What we've learned from painful experience with this outbreak is that it goes along almost on a straight line, then a little acceleration, acceleration, then it goes way up,"

But no, Abe still thinks he can solve a health crisis with money.

10 ( +10 / -0 )

"Tokyo's governor on Monday called on residents to avoid outings in the evenings and at weekends as the coronavirus crisis deepened, but said it was up to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to declare a state of emergency to tackle it."

Sounds like she is qualified politician. If it is as serious as she implies, then declare emergency now. Pandemic doesn't take a vocation.

-4 ( +2 / -6 )

PM Abe implied the death toll may be a critical indicator for assessment. Former Tokyo Governor Masuzoe suggests criteria for the Tokyo lockdown: 1) 200-300 daily confirmed cases, in the upward trend; 2) Many are aged and critically ill. I think these conditional points are clear and plausible. Judging from them it is not yet needed.

If the emergency rule is imposed, the government should also clarify and address the exit strategy and timeline which should be numerical, evidence-based and practical.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

It is very unusual for Japan to hold such long period of time without a breakout. When Chinese scientists asked the govt to declare state emergency, it only had about 50 cases. 4 days later, the CCP received the request and made the decision. Looking back, time is life, so true.

-5 ( +4 / -9 )

Good luck to Koike.

Short of a lock down and police enforcement, it's going to be virtually impossible to keep the crowds and outings to a minimum.

People around the world are ignoring stay at home orders, it takes a lockdown as seen in Italy and China for these kinds of things to be effective. We simply cannot trust our fellow citizens to act in the best interests of society as a whole.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

criteria for the Tokyo lockdown: 1) 200-300 daily confirmed cases, in the upward trend

That will not happen at Tokyo's/Japan's current testing rate.

Tokyo is testing at a rate of 163 tests per million people (March 27 data).

Japan is testing at a rate of 230 tests per million people (March 30 data).

For comparison, the state of New York is testing at a rate of 9,500 tests per million people (March 30 data).

5 ( +6 / -1 )

Please Abe heed this warning!

”"If we wait until an explosive increase in infections before declaring an emergency, it will be too late," Satoshi Kamayachi, an executive board member of the Japan Medical Association”.

10 ( +10 / -0 )

Bruce Chatwin, if your number is reliable, then Japan should increase the test immediately. We all know that the case number is determined by the test number in a situation of initial pandemic.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

Abe and Koike aren't reading your comments on this site. Go to twitter and tweet @abeshinzo and @ecoyuri directly about your opinions on their lack of leadership during this crisis. I actually got a like from a law professor at Kyoto University. So some people are listening.

9 ( +9 / -0 )

People around the world are ignoring stay at home orders

Based on reports from family and friends, that does not seem to be the case in Italy, Spain, Germany or Canada.

7 ( +8 / -1 )

My simulation shows that the pandemic explodes like a bomb. If there is any signs that Japan is in danger, then act now, not later.

5 ( +7 / -2 )

Always late, half arsed, unable to decide without a dozen meetings to dilute responsibility , behind the curve

Sclerotic...

8 ( +8 / -0 )

 Japan has so far managed to avoid the kind of outbreaks that have ravaged parts of Europe and the United States

Correction: Japan has taken great care not to test, count, or report on coronavirus numbers because they realise they might have to do something beyond sitting tightly packed in ceremonial meetings, performing a pantomime of dealing with this.

14 ( +14 / -0 )

Another pointless press conference. No mention in the article of Koike brushing off a reporter who had the temerity to ask why she called a press conference if she had nothing new to say.

It's well known that Abe's press conferences are entirely scripted, with reporters lobbing softball questions submitted beforehand. Why doesn't Koike just a make a speech into cameras and abandon the charade that these press conferences have any meaning?

15 ( +16 / -1 )

Came to say exactly what Derek said above.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Yoshihide Suga, the government's top spokesman, told a news conference earlier: "It's not true that the government is planning on declaring a state of emergency from April 1."

Watch the government declare a state of emergency tomorrow.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare reports a whopping 206 tests on March 29...

https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/newpage_00032.html

4 ( +4 / -0 )

"If we wait until an explosive increase in infections before declaring an emergency, it will be too late," Satoshi Kamayachi, an executive board member of the Japan Medical Association, told a news conference, in comments carried by broadcaster Nippon Television.

can somebody please listen to this man ?

10 ( +10 / -0 )

That Center for the disabled now has 86 coronavirus cases. That's more cases than many countries or some major cities have.

I guess declaring a state of emergency is difficult for Japan because they probably have no plan beyond the declaration.

As for Tokyo, as I said yesterday, it makes you wonder about Tokyo's preparedness for an earthquake.

9 ( +9 / -0 )

Turn back the pages of history from which we humans are supposed to learn and we see in the face of crisis and looming disaster the same old dithering, foot-dragging and tail-chasing and hear the same sucking of teeth, but no decisive action until the inevitable but much-too-late declaration on August 14 1945. The price? Hundreds of thousands precious lives squandered by pride and pusillanimity. Moral of the story? Time to batten down the hatches asap, folks. The Godzilla-19 is going to stomp all over Japan.

5 ( +7 / -2 )

Avoid the sardine-packed rush-hour trains at all costs—they are perfect for driving the fast spread of this very infectious virus.

We are still at the base of the J curve, but time is running out. When infection counts start doubling every 2 or 3 days, we are all in trouble and it will be unstoppable until effective medications and finally a vaccine are developed.

2020/21 is shaping-up to be miserable.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Abe - it’s not about importing the virus anymore. The virus is here and you need to act now. Now. Test more people. Stop hiding the facts. Nobody cares about the Olympics anymore so get over it. It’s not all about money and helping your privileged friends... it’s about the public and their health & safely. Be honest with the public. Stop your cronyism and don’t defend your wife when she does stupid things. Declare the state of emergency that everyone knows it is anyway. Do something about this before many thousand die.

Jeez. Of course none of this will happen.

10 ( +11 / -1 )

Everyone please remember every country is different. The government has more information than posters on a news website.

-15 ( +3 / -18 )

For those that speak Japanese, the television commentator and physician, once in the Japanese Government, Ms. Okada, Harue has been literally begging the government for almost 1 month now to declare a state of emergency but she is dismissed.

The actions of the leadership are causing me to seriously reconsider my future here after over 2 decades.

17 ( +18 / -1 )

she is the mayor of Tokyo, what do you expect her to do? She legitimately does not have the authority to put the city into lockdown. At least she is actually showing up and pleading with the public as strongly as she legally can.

Huh? No she isn't... there isn't a "mayor of Tokyo" considering Tokyo is actually made up of many small cities. That's why it's a special administrative zone. Shinjuku? That's a city. Chiyoda? That's another city and they all have their own mayors. (In reality they're special wards; semantics)

Koike is the Governor of Tokyo. She absolutely has the legal ability and responsibility to call for a lockdown.

6 ( +8 / -2 )

Since Japan is not massively testing for the virus.... we need to lock the country down until after golden week. Only absolutely necessary stores, businesses and institutions should be open. The pain we bear now will bear dividends later.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

Just close everything already! Only essential services should remain open and the government of the self-proclaimed ‘rich country’ needs to start shelling out money to support the millions of workers.

6 ( +6 / -0 )

@ksteer She can declare a 'state of emergency' but it would have no legal standing whatsoever. You really haven't read up or followed the news properly have you?

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Tokyo was hit much earlier than Italy, and New york, and any non Chinese cities. Peopke act like the virus just got here.

Im have a bad news for you, like it or not, you're gonna live with it from now on. Just like flu, cancer, HIV... the list goes on

-5 ( +3 / -8 )

ksteer

Koike is the Governor of Tokyo. She absolutely has the legal ability and responsibility to call for a lockdown.

Gee, you mean someone who is happy to accept all the benefits and privilege of a "leadership" role in Japan is avoiding all responsibility and making excuses for not taking urgent action?

Well, that'd be a first, wouldn't it?

7 ( +7 / -0 )

@ksteer: Thank you for bringing up this often overlooked point. The 23 ku's are the cities, each with their own bureaucracy as well.

Also for those thinking we are being harsh with criticism of the government actions there are many people like me who love Japan, have a business here, and (until recently) I was fully intending to stay for the long haul.

I am an engineer however I like to read. If anyone has read "The Enigma of Japanese Power" by Karl van Wolferen it would provide a very good insight and explanation as to what is happening now. This book came out in the late 80's.

Although unlikely I would like to see Abe and Koike consider riding a train to work one day so they can actually have the emotional experience and fear that many hard working Japanese people are having on a daily basis during this pandemic.

With all the debt that is going to be accumulated I believe Japan could pay everyone other than essential workers to stay home for 2 weeks which could severely decelerate this virus and would actually result in long term savings.

14 ( +14 / -0 )

The number of infections continues to increase from last week and we are at a crucial moment which will determine whether we can minimize the number of further infections

...determine whether we can minimize...

Dear Japan, yes you CAN minimize infections by ordering people to stay home, not just in the evening and on weekends.

Sincerely,

The rest of the world

11 ( +11 / -0 )

@ theResident

@ksteer She can declare a 'state of emergency' but it would have no legal standing whatsoever. You really haven't read up or followed the news properly have you?

You are technically correct. On the other hand the Governor of Hokkaido made the declaration of a "state of emergency" and although it also had no legal standing it did in fact have an impact.

I think if Koike took this action it could also have some impact and also from a selfish point of view could reclaim some of her legacy. She is now 67 years old and I would imagine rather well off (coming from Ashiya) so even if this action killed her political career she may be able to do something to help Tokyo and repair her image.

9 ( +9 / -0 )

Maybe someone should explain to Abe that his precious 2021 Olympics will be at risk if he doesn't act now to stop this thing.

10 ( +10 / -0 )

There is a wealth of data on the situation in Tokyo at the Tokyo Metropolitan Government website link below

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

2 ( +2 / -0 )

I agree with all the criticism above.

What the Government IS doing by holding off on lock down and failing to extensively test is spreading fear through the populace, and ensuring many are going broke.

My friend works for a sensible cafe that shut it's doors for two weeks, but everyone else failed to act. If the Government delays further that will mean more than a month with no salary for people in that position.

7 ( +7 / -0 )

Tokyo this, Tokyo that. It's not just Tokyo people. The virus has spread throughout the whole country. Of course we'll never know the extent of it because testing is frowned upon.

8 ( +8 / -0 )

The only way people around the world collectively would take seriously stay at home guidelines and quarantines is if the virus in question was something along the lines of ebola (with some outbreaks having 90% death rates). There is absolutely no doubt that many people still think this is just like any other flu and if it happens, it happens but nothing more serious than a fever, coughing and bed rest. If we were talking about a worldwide ebola pandemic, the streets would absolutely be deserted, around the world, no questions.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Funny how our personal time is infringed upon by the government but weekdays we must still go to work to keep the Japanese industrial machine moving. I say we all just stay home.

15 ( +15 / -0 )

RESIDENT EVIL anyone? Remember the opening scene at Shibuya crossing?

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

@Bruce Chatwin

There is a wealth of data on the situation in Tokyo at the Tokyo Metropolitan Government website link below

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

Thanks for the share. Interesting that they lump the deaths in with the "discharged"...

4 ( +4 / -0 )

"If we wait until an explosive increase in infections before declaring an emergency, it will be too late," Satoshi Kamayachi, an executive board member of the Japan Medical Association”.

Mr. Kamayachi, how will you know there is an explosive increase without increasing testing? Or maybe you have discovered a new method where 1100 tests a day yields 11,000 results.

6 ( +7 / -1 )

As the olympics is postponed by Abe and IOC, I can start coming to TV for tell people how to live their lives and eventually shame them for not following the manners but I will not take any actions where I might be held responsible.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

By learning from other countries it would definitely seem better to be proactive rather than reactive.

6 ( +7 / -1 )

Funny how our personal time is infringed upon by the government but weekdays we must still go to work to keep the Japanese industrial machine moving. I say we all just stay home

Exactly. These politicians just can't pull their mouths off the corporate teat. Combine that with the bassackwards JP work/life philosophy, and they just can't bring themselves to tell people in non-essential jobs to stay home from work.

7 ( +7 / -0 )

@theResident

@ksteer She can declare a 'state of emergency' but it would have no legal standing whatsoever. You really haven't read up or followed the news properly have you?

I have been following the news properly. Not sure where you got that. What I was saying is that Koike, in her role of Governor of Tokyo, has the legal authority and responsibility to call for (sic; request) a lockdown. Sure she can't legally enforce one, but she can legally request that the parliament does. That's literally part of her job. And as @Tokyo-Engr said, declaring a state of emergency like the Governor of Hokkaido did can play a huge part. Sure it's not legally enforceable, but she can still declare it.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

Any wagers to see if she'll be around as Governor by next Olympics?

8 ( +8 / -0 )

The government has more information than posters on a news website.

Yeah. Which is exactly why they suddenly agreed to postpone the Olympics after months of saying everything was fine.

They know that the situation is serious, or they wouldn't have postponed, and wouldn't be telling people to stay home on evenings and weekends. They just can't bring themselves to shutdown big business, because they are beholden to them.

7 ( +8 / -1 )

Sounds like another pol saying 'I'm not responsible for that'. Backatcha, PM.

this is a bow, apologize and forget a bit, then return...society.

The good thing was everyone but for two people in my car were wearing masks.

FYI. Masks have 0% effect from contacting the virus. In fact, masks can transfer it. Masks do however, collect approx 20% of emissions from infected carriers who couch, so long as into the mask. But if they touch their mask, the virus will transmit to their hands. After this, the virus lasts up to about 9 hours on normal surfaces and between 2-3 days on metals etc, depending on coating.

Masks however are effective for allergies. Double masks (1st layer wet, 2nd layer dry can prevent most radioactive dust particles for a short period. Common cold is also preventive.

Why are people to so stupid to think that utilizing a piece of paper over their nose and mouth can stop COVID-19. Are they so stupid to not understand that you are more likely to be infected through your eyes? Mouth and nose have advanced systems to fight pathogens, viruses, bacteria etc. eye immune system is not even close.

Save the masks for people with allergies. Allergies can lead to asthma and other serious respiratory diseases.

(Our hospital in Kansai only allows 2 masks one week for all staff. Not just nurses, but doctors as well)

Go to sparsely populated areas. Avoid crowds inside. Social distancing.

Wash your hand frequently, and if you buy a can of coffee, wash the rim before drinking.

If you are old or/and have medical problems, stay the f home.

Paranoia is killing just as much people as COVID-19.

Tokyo's governor on Monday called on residents to avoid outings in the evenings and at weekends 

Japanese inc wants people to work so there is only limited impact on economy. Work, home, work, home, repeat. You are more likely to be infected commuting and being contained in confined office space, than walking with your family on the riverbank viewing cherry blossoms. 21st century slavery.

My simulation shows that the pandemic explodes like a bomb. If there is any signs that Japan is in danger, then act now, not later.

Once the politicians, amukaradi, CEO's have dumped their shares, TotalLockdown will come in 24hrs. Tick tock...

4 ( +5 / -1 )

If the chauffeurs went on strike and suddenly all the cabinet members had to use public transportation to get to work, there'd be a lock down so fast it would make your head spin.

10 ( +11 / -1 )

There might be other major consequences if Japan goes into lock down. Around 20,000 to 40,000 Japanese people suicide every year. And as a result of lock down there might be economic crisis which may lead to more number of deaths from suicide than the corona virus.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

PM Abe put Japan behind the world by not helping the IOC to postpone the Olympics sooner. Now he must make another big decision that is surely costing lives if that decision to declare a National emergency is made. Trump was late also and look at the numbers in the States. Gosh, this could easily be a major pandemic that needs to be faced!

7 ( +8 / -1 )

When my partner shushed me to say, “Governor Koike is coming on. Something important is coming!” I first pointed out that she was supposed to be coming on quite a while before, and that most assuredly nothing important would be said. I continued that there is no way this person would announce a lockdown, knowing what it would mean for the crowded commute and businesses, and how people always pass the buck and say they are waiting for the leader to do it, and the leader saying it is up to the local authorities. I think she was more disappointed that I was bang on than that Koike served up a big nothing burger and the virus is going to continue to spread like wildfire.

5 ( +7 / -2 )

So she's saying, "It's not my job!" And Abe says, "Not mine!".

So last week, Abe passed that law to allow him to declare a nationwide state of emergency, yet it's up to each prefectural governor to declare their own state of emergency, if need be. Yet it was Koike who said it might be necessary to lock down Tokyo.

Right. I'm not confused and niether are they.

In the meantime there were just 17 reported positive cases in Tokyo yesterday (Sunday). Numbers peaked at 68 on Satruday. We are well on our way down the curve. It's over.

Now, get back to work for the country!

1 ( +4 / -3 )

@Som Rai

A top level German politician did exactly that the other day. A real worry, actually.

And under any lockdown in Tokyo, with the tiny, tiny little mansions (apartments) that most people live in there will certainly be a huge spike in domestic violence, suicides and other serious issues.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

So if Koike San does not have the authority to do the necessary in Tokyo - who made the decision in Hokkaido ?

5 ( +5 / -0 )

In the meantime there were just 17 reported positive cases in Tokyo yesterday (Sunday). Numbers peaked at 68 on Satruday. We are well on our way down the curve. It's over.

I can guarantee you it's not over.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

I'm really struggling with the logic of this. Seems to me that by staying home in the evening, all we're doing is bankrupting our favourite bars and restaurants and putting one particular segment of employees out of work. Meanwhile, the virus will spread during the daytime in the morning rush hour, at companies, in schools (when they open, which they are currently scheduled to do), and in the evening rush hour (which I'm guessing will be worse if everyone just goes straight home).

I'm all for a lock-down, but either we're all in this together and almost all need to stay at home, or we agree that the economy is more important and tell everyone - including restaurants - to go about their business. Picking some sectors and asking them to make a sacrifice (for minimal benefit) while others carry on as normal is ridiculous.

I have some sympathy with Koike as she doesn't have the power to do much more than she has done for the public at large, but would have preferred a much stronger "don't go to work" message, and she could have set a powerful example by sending a load of non-essential (i.e. most of them) Tokyo bureaucrats home.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

@Serrano

Numbers peaked at 68 on Satruday. We are well on our way down the curve. It's over.

I can guarantee you it's not over.

/sarcasm

3 ( +3 / -0 )

206 tests performed yesterday in all Japan. That’s one way to ensure there’s not spike in cases!

I was surprised that there was no new case in Japan yesterday. Now I know why. The same no test, no new case thing again. So Japan is still playing the gambling game. When will Japan decide to fold its cards and play it safe? Or does it really believe luck would be on its side till the end.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

What the hell is going on? Experts being ignored and politicians making mealy mouthed announcements for people not to go out at evenings and weekends. How dare the authorities endanger so many people. This is one time when maintaining the status quo can't be used as a 'Get out of jail free' card by the government - some one needs to take responsibility for this crisis now.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

I would guess most people calling for a lockdown are full time employees who expect to get paid during said lockdown.

I wonder if they would be less vocal if their companies announced they weren't going to get paid for the duration of a lockdown. The same as part timers, freelancers and business owners.

-3 ( +3 / -6 )

"If we wait until an explosive increase in infections before declaring an emergency, it will be too late," Satoshi Kamayachi, an executive board member of the Japan Medical Association, told a news conference, in comments carried by broadcaster Nippon Television.

NHK' s reporting is clearer yet, claiming that a majority of the government's own panel of experts are in favor of declaring a state of emergency

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200330_43/

But of course let's continue to dither.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

@secretsquirrel

So if Koike San does not have the authority to do the necessary in Tokyo - who made the decision in Hokkaido ?

Different legal situation, I think.

The law we are under now was voted after the Hokkaido call and the governor agreed, he did not had the power to do it legally, thus it was no biding.

The current law state that the Prime Minister call for nationwide emergency, once this declaration is made, governor can declare local emergency. That is still not enforced law, mostly point and shame as the previous one but should still bring benefit logically.

The previous law was declared by cabinet not covering the current situation thus a new law had to be enacted, that created a hole were Hokkaido Governor could jump in without having any cabinet coming against hm for not waiting for national announcement as they themselves said the law at that time did not apply.

Koike is stuck in the hierarchical law in place now. Will she have declared if not ? I do not know. As pointed before politics and personal interest are in the play. Can another governor choose to just go for emergency declaration without a care for Abe&co, quite possibly as long as the benefit (personal, for the people, ... ) surpass the risk.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

to be precise It's based on the constitution since a lock down will violate people's rights.

that is why Koike is reluctant to declare lockdown.

as for testing, which would you prefer more, hospital overwelmed with potential virus carriers wanting testing resulting to hospital personnel contracting the disease making the hospital a hotspot or have the potential carriers who only show mild symptoms to stay home?

-4 ( +0 / -4 )

any lockdown would rely more on moral suasion and peer pressure than formal penalties.

as with pretty much everything else in this country

3 ( +3 / -0 )

@carpslidy

You mean like the people working in tourism, entertainment, shop, restaurant, bar, ... which have already lost their job or will in the days to come and are unlucky but it's like that, bad period, ne.

The people if a mass quarantine is issued as they were not in employment could not go public to shame their company firing them neither will be concerned by any financial help by the government to company and worker as they are not working anymore and their loss of business can not be linked to the government decision.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Robert Hancock:

We are still at the base of the J curve, but time is running out. When infection counts start doubling every 2 or 3 days, we are all in trouble and it will be unstoppable until effective medications and finally a vaccine are developed.

Incorrect. It will stop regardless what politicians do, once enough people have been infected and devoloped antibodies. All epidemics burn themselves out.

This is about slowing the spread ("flattening the curve" as they call it), and avoiding having a spike where all the hospitals are clogged at once with Corona patients. It is NOT a binary option of "stopping" or not stopping something.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

The people who clamour for an infinite, total lockdown of society are fundamentally asking us to burn down our house because there there is cockroach in there.... we laugh at stories like this, but many want to do exactly that.

-4 ( +2 / -6 )

This is about slowing the spread ("flattening the curve" as they call it), and avoiding having a spike where all the hospitals are clogged at once with Corona patients. It is NOT a binary option of "stopping" or not stopping something.

I tend to agree. If that's the case, then the timing of lockdowns is probably important. Do it too soon when very few are infected and we may be just storing up a problem. Do it when, for example, 5-10% are thought to be infected, then isolating will probably limit the spread of the infection to household members of only those that are infected, and hopefully most will get over the disease and acquire immunity. After a few weeks, relax the lockdown, and see what happens. If new infections rise significantly, lockdown again. (And if some kind of immunity test can be developed, those that have recovered can be exempted.) One problem is whether we have sufficient data to make good decisions about the timings. Another problem is how to isolate those most at risk during the whole process.

Crazy ideas I have heard:

Put old people on cruise ships to keep them isolated.

Put young kids on cruise ships (not the same ones) to infect each other and let them acquire immunity.

Neither is practical, but they do kind of illustrate the issues we are facing.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Please remember folks It’s also a smart political move so she can pass the buck and say I did urge the p.m

1 ( +1 / -0 )

So if a lock down happens or they continue to tell people not to go out in the evenings then where is the government support for the thousands of restaurants which are facing financial ruin.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

state of emergency up to PM

Not surprising at all she talks like this. She never makes critical decisions herself.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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