No. of coronavirus infections in Japan passes 1,000

With a small numbers of tests the infection rate is probably higher.

Tests won't change anything. What companies and the government are not doing is the bigger issue.

They don't even have a clue how how cases are out there in Japan and they keep claiming the that the 2020 Olympics are still on. At current rate of transmission, we won't see the peak EVEN if everyone stays locked at home for one month until the middle of June.

Without a vaccine, and hoping that once you get it you might be immune, using the 80/20 rule and the current rate of transmission, this could take anywhere from 14 to 20 months to burn its self out. Clearly hotter and drier or hot and humid weather doesn't slow it down. This is the current new normal for the next two weeks before you really see government clamp downs in some parts of the world using the military to keep the rules enforced.

Life as you knew is on hold for the foreseeable future.

Like Reckless said, if many people were falling I'll, it would impossible to hide for long. With all the Chinese tourists and Japanese tendency to work will sick I am simply baffled at how Japan was able to dodge this bullet. Maybe Japan is doing something right or is simply lucky. The government is definitely under reacting though.

I’m sure if they were to test people the rate would be a lot higher and why wouldn’t it given the proximity of SK and China and the amount of tourism that hits this place, viruses don’t stay regulated in one area and Japan is not some magical and mythical place where mysteriously it gets here and just dies off....yeah, sure.

That’s a good thing. The number of cases in Australia just passed a thousand too although, Australia has (had) a lot more people coming in from overseas. Plus, many Australians are not taking it seriously enough. It’s only the last few days have people started to consider the severity, but Bondi beach was packed yesterday afternoon by idiots.

Clearly hotter and drier or hot and humid weather doesn't slow it down

I don’t think that is clear. As far as I have read, that hasn’t been ‘clearly’ dismissed.

Life as you knew is on hold for the foreseeable future

Fear mongering much?

The Japanese little kids are so cute. They are lovely and I hope they will be OK and not infected by this horrible Coronavirus disease. They are the future of Japan. I visited Japan many times. A beautiful country.

Especially the little pre-schoolers you see walking together in their identically colored little hats.

Fear mongering much?

With major countries around the world use lockdown, it is more a statement of reality than fear mongering.

Looking at Italy, it seems Japan did something right because the hospitals aren't being overrun with dying persons.

Yet!

But trying harder to replicate Italy now by curtailing efforts to slow it down even, as the story indicates, numbers keep rising ( despite their best efforts to lower them by limited testing!)

The Japanese little kids are so cute

Cute little kids worldwide are not in health danger from the virus itself. This is already very clear. But the same cannot be said for their great grandparent, grandparents and even parents (a lot of reports about over 40's in intensive care in the US and Italy, not just over 80's)

At this rate we will hit 1,500 by June and 2,000 by the Olympics. Cool! We are all saved, because this is safety Japan.

Meanwhile, NYC which had virtually zero cases (due to non testing) just 2 weeks ago, has now "discovered" thousands. Now they are saying that another Italy is inevitable there within just a few weeks. Hospitals are already near capacity. A near full state of emergency has been declared and people under lockdown. California, likewise.

I think Japan did the right thing by not testing ! Master move, Mr. Abe.

Humour over, the issue is that the longer you ignore this, the bigger the problem will become. It has been silently building here for months and months.

Osaka already coming out and saying they looking at nearly 4,000 cases by April 3. I hope the Japanese people are prepared for the coming carnage.

Tests won't change anything. What companies and the government are not doing is the bigger issue.

Right, and it's the government that is to blame for limiting the testing, so this contradicts your statement too.

Testing WILL make a huge difference, as it identifies, if you haven't heard this yet, people who are carrrying the virus, even without having symptoms!

Folks really need to get their heads out of the sand here!

Osaka already coming out and saying they looking at nearly 4,000 cases by April 3. I hope the Japanese people are prepared for the coming carnage.

Carnage?

You really do need to tone it down a bit.

It is a matter of time that Japan will look worse than China. No test, No quarantine, No hospital for the afflicted. This is a recipe for disaster.

Japan has the lowest # of the infected among G7, which is a testament of how good Japanese healthcare system is. Abe san's leadership shines in difficult times like this. Keep up the good work!

For all those people saying more tests are needed, please answer these questions: why haven't the hospitals here been inundated with patients needing care? If testing does really help contain the virus, why hasn't Italy been able to stop the carnage?

See you can't but many of you continue to insist that testing is almost like a cure for the virus. Smgdfh...

@Jimizo

Tell that to the Italians, the Spanish, the Koreans, the Chinese, the Iranians, etc and soon the Americans.

Japan and others' turns will also come.

Osaka already coming out and saying they looking at nearly 4,000 cases by April 3. I hope the Japanese people are prepared for the coming carnage.

Carnage? 

You really do need to tone it down a bit.

I think Carnage is a very appropriate term for what is coming

Anyone who think it is all good in Japan needs to go on youtube and have a look at the videos coming out of the hospitals in Italy. This is happening. Most of the world is now realising it can happen to them, But not Japan.

Why should Japan, now relaxing measures to slow the spread, be spared. China and South Korea have slowed things by strong efforts to slow it but Japan is going to do it by relaxing measures and even hold the Olympics as well!

Carnage is an appropriate word for what is coming. Please check the videos from Italy for a preview.

Looking at Italy, it seems Japan did something right because the hospitals aren't being overrun with dying persons. Maybe there is something to those masks?

Yeah, I suspect that when the Corona spread started, the Japanese were already wearing masks because of the regular influenza and hay fever.

Also, unlike Italians, the Japanese are not much into hugging and kissing.

@Tora

You tend to go into panic mode and spreading panic isn’t a good thing. You told us ‘everything is closing down’ - yes ‘everything’. This is the kind if language which causes misunderstanding and there are people out there with visions of everyone confined to their houses with the military outside your door. Now you are using words like ‘carnage’.

I’m not someone who dismisses this as just another flu, but the types spreading panic and speculating are not just unhelpful - they are actually harmful.

. I hope the Japanese people are prepared for the coming carnage

carnage? Really? Take a day off and relax mate

@jimizo, Vince

Sorry, just don't' know how else to describe what is probably coming. And Italy not the only place with soldiers on the streets either. Japan is far too complacent, but we'll have to agree to disagree.

"(The request to use the army) has been accepted... and 114 soldiers will be on the ground throughout Lombardy... it is still too little, but it is positive," Fontana said. "Unfortunately we are not seeing a change of trend in the numbers, which are rising."

The soldiers had until now been deployed in the region to ensure general security in the streets.

More than 4,000 people have now died from the disease in Italy, the country's civil protection agency said Friday -- more than any other nation -- and nearly 6,000 new infections were confirmed in the past day, bringing the total to more than 47,000 cases.

Daniela Confalonieri, an Italian nurse in Milan, the region's capital, said the situation was so dire that the dead were no longer being counted.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/20/europe/italy-military-coronavirus-intl/index.html

Since the majority of carriers have mild or even no symptoms, the only accurate way to find out how widly the virus has spreaded is increased testing of as many people as you can. It is not easy but frankly there is no other way.

With other countries facing carnage, Japan too will face it. There is no reason to think otherwise. Japanese don’t have genetic immunity. The pachinko parlors and game centers are still open. Almost nothing is being done.

People, both in and out of Japan, have proposed several ad hoc hypotheses to explain low infection rate of coronavirus in Japan, which are impossible to test (falsify). Few people mention the real reason and the most important factor: the Japan Medical Association (Nihon Ishi Kai, JMA).

The JMA actually monopolies the Japanese medical industry. The JMA considers that coronavirus mass testing would require a lot of sacrifice of Japanese doctors, but is not profitable at all (virtually no money to doctors). This is why the number of test is so low but the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, under influence of the NIID and the JMA, seemingly tries to suppress it. Remember that this kind of bureaucratic selfishness once started the Pacific war (WWII), destroying the entire Japan. Let's see what the SARS-CoV-2 strain combined with the JMA will do.

People, both in and out of Japan, have proposed several ad hoc hypotheses to explain low infection rate of coronavirus in Japan, which are impossible to test (falsify). Few people mention the real reason and the most important factor: the Japan Medical Association (Nihon Ishi Kai, JMA).

The JMA actually monopolies the Japanese medical industry. The JMA considers that coronavirus mass testing would require a lot of sacrifice of Japanese doctors, but is not profitable at all (virtually no money to doctors). This is why the number of test is so low but the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, under influence of the NIID and the JMA, seemingly tries to suppress it. Remember that this kind of bureaucratic selfishness once started the Pacific war (WWII), destroying the entire Japan. Let's see what the SARS-CoV-2 strain combined with the JMA will do.

I completely agree, makes absolute perfect sense.

What is conspicuous is that countries like Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong have largely avoided mass infections and deaths.

My guess is that social distancing, the use of masks and a general awareness within the community negates some of the power of this thing.

What other rational explanations can there be? No cover-up conspiracy theories please. You can't cover-up hospital admissions across three countries,

@ozellis

Your hypotheses are just a joke. For example, mask is virtually useless in defending the coronavirus for most common people. Can you cite any scientific paper supporting your claim on mask?

But you can cover up the cause of deaths - particularly for the old with another disease who die at home. Without testing a death cannot be attributed to COVID-19, but can be attributed to the other disease.

For example, mask is virtually useless in defending the coronavirus for most common people. 

There is scientific support for the idea of masks helping prevent the spread of viruses.

https://youtu.be/cWT9RRzQpS8

zichiToday  04:14 pm JST

With a small numbers of tests the infection rate is probably higher.

Someone needs to tell PM Abe, "test, trace, treat."

The actual infection rate is probably higher with or without more tests because there are asymptomatic cases as well as reinfection cases.

As far as "treat" goes, treat with what? There is no established treatment for COVID19 at this time. All possible treatments are still in their testing stages.

@Jimizo

There is scientific support for the idea of masks helping prevent the spread of viruses.

Scientific support? Can you cite any source?

Disinformation on coronavirus is widespread as much as the virus itself.

The C.D.C. recommends that people diagnosed with Covid-19 wear masks to reduce the release of viruses. Health care workers and others who care for infected people should wear masks, too.

Carl Zimmer

@Tim Surgical masks do not protect you very well if you are healthy, especially since they may encourage you to put your fingers all over your face to adjust them, carrying virus to your face. They are important to keep coughs and sneezes IN. So sick people should wear them. And people caring for sick people should.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/11/science/how-coronavirus-hijacks-your-cells.html

If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks

Public health officials have been clear about it: There’s no need for healthy people to go around wearing face masks to protect themselves from the novel coronavirus.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/mask-or-no-mask-this-is-what-the-virus-experts-say/2020/03/09/58f94caa-620e-11ea-8a8e-5c5336b32760_story.html

If a person is infectious, whether they know it or not, if they are wearing a mask, I find it plausible that they will be emitting fewer viruses into the air around them, for others to inhale.

There may be no need for healthy people to wear masks, but given that some individuals are asymptomatic or concealing symptoms out of fear if quarantine and social stigma (especially an issue here in Japan, I suspect), then having everybody wear masks is the only sensible option. The only people who can guarantee their health are those who have been repeatedly tested over a period of time. Other people maybe asymptomatic or currently dormant. So wear a mask out of consideration for others. It won't stop you getting it, but it might well help prevent hidden cases from spreading it everywhere.

Japan is clearly not testing enough, because it's important that Japan seems safe for the Olympics. When the figures rise and consequently the death toll rises (an inevitable occurrence) I hope it will finally put an end to the ridiculous notion that the Japanese carry a natural immunity. This is most unlikely, however.

From WJS:

U.S. Government Plans to Ratchet Up Emphasis on Social Distancing

Days after saying widespread tests would be available, officials seek to avoid perception of coronavirus testing as a ‘magic bullet’

https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-new-coronavirus-strategy-stresses-social-distancing-over-broad-testing-11584610205

The Trump administration plans to increasingly emphasize social distancing as the primary method to contain the new coronavirus, a shift away from its recent focus on accelerating widespread testing as a containment tool, according to officials.

====

But much contrast to Japan, I think that this American strategy is rather controversial, considering its limited capacity and readiness of healthcare systems. Responses can vary from place to place, better fit to varying local situations. Keeping social distance is effective, should be universally adopted, regardless of it.

Hate to say it but just as Japan seems to have somehow dodged a bullet with the cv situation, the last thing Japan needs is thousands and thousands of visitors for the Olympics in July so it all flares up again. Most athletes won't want to come anyway so postponing it for a year (or whenever is agreed upon by the major stakeholders) is sensible.

MEDITATIVE SOLUTION TIME

°

The games problems is people won't buy places and won't come to japan because of the corona fears.

In Europe, Italy is announcing 600 deads a day and rising. There is more dead than in China. So grieving time is on (like after Fukushima, and let's hope no asian hate). Japan need to do publicity about is perfect reaction and near no dead number tall.

In Europe they refused to tell people to put mask on. The Macron government was sure with Germany and London, that it was an airborn virus and not useful. They stil don't budge on mask because this would be the end of any election hope for their new party in the future. So people stil doesn't protect themselves when they go out to work to protect their political interest.

They are stopping economy in Europe because they don't want to tell people to protect themselves with mask, gloves and hat for a month.

This is letal stupidity and medical sciences is lying to protect them. This is an economic nightmare to come.

So the tokyo game ? I don't see how to save them. The weather bubble chosen for them is short. But to really save them, Japan should speak about possible mesures to protect tourist coming and athlete ("in the worse case scenario").

Example : plaxiglass around the game area, summer mask and glove for the public, cleaning of the collectove area with desinfectant every hour or two, free fever controls, faster immediate testing (a changing color swab for example), redirect toward heat country and asia the game public (free ride to save at least local consommation during the game....

Japan need to sell, it can protect the people even with the virus on. It will sell ticket.

°

NadAge

Side note

France & Europe will not recover anytime soon from this crisis. Leaders who let the people die to save an election ? French worth nightmare is back. Religious dictature tried again to force a monarchy on our people through colonisation hidden mesures. I am pessimist for the world. There is nobody to replace France heart to lead a better future (america has money heart, London has heart only for keeping monarchy's privilege, germany and europe root for a london religious expedite system back... Russia is attacked to save orthodoxes lies... the monotheist world is mostly insane, they don't come to asia without good and better reason to come).

Lets see what happens when this so far 1.world virus hits the rest of us.

There is no „me first“ on this one.

with all the industrial capacities at hand there should be no need for basic protectives.

@nakanoguy01

Simple. If you test people, you can more effectively identify the clusters and isolate. What Japan is doing right now is waiting for someone to be severely sick before testing. We all know the incubation period of the virus is 2 weeks. In that span of time, we have spread the virus and created more clusters.

Japan is not testing and not doing quarantine. SK didn't quarantine, too, but they are actively testing. Japan can't claim to curb the spread by not doing anything. As a scientist, I can't accept that.

Public health officials have been clear about it: There’s no need for healthy people to go around wearing face masks to protect themselves from the novel coronavirus.

These statements by health officials are often followed by expressing concern that if everyone start using masks, there won't be enough left over for the care takers. Hmmm, why would care takers use them if they offer no protection...

Japan is inherently a cleaner country than Italy and most of Asia. I think that reason alone has helped Japan dodge a bullet.

Your hypotheses are just a joke. For example, mask is virtually useless in defending the coronavirus for most common people. Can you cite any scientific paper supporting your claim on mask?

I agree, but I do think the mask has certain limitations that can be beneficial, for one thing stopping the spread of saliva, sneezing and coughing. I suffer from chronic allergies and certain masks help in decreasing allergic outbreaks, but other than that apart from giving the person next to you a piece of spiritual and emotional security, masks are rather for the most part useless in preventing the spread of disease.

The death toll stands at 43, the same as Friday.

35 on landside, 8 from the cruiser. Please be accurate and consistent on category and counting.

215 have recovered or been discharged. Good luck!

If it seems to good to be true, it probably is.

People here are saying 'Japan dodged a bullet' as if this is already over. It's not. One case at the wrong place at the wrong moment (e.g. any train in tokyo, anytime). and you go from containment mode to flatten the curve mode. You can only outrun a bullet for so long.

Scientific support? Can you cite any source?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5153448/

That's not a magic bullet, but that helps. If people have the masks and are willing to wear them, that's a great thing. That should not be the only effort, but everything counts.

If you are healthy, 

Nobody can say "I'm healthy" in any of the areas where covid is running as half of "positive" persons have no symptoms. Then testing is not done, so you don't even know your status.

Conclusion : These days, if you care for someone, wear a mask. If you work in service industry or any job in contact with many, wear one too.

Im beginning to think the overwhelming social pressure in Japan to conform and to think beyond oneself so "urging " may be of some benign benefit.

still doubt the true number of cases out there but see no evidence of panic buying( other than toilet paper???)

Saw the same attitude after the 2011 earthquake, Tsunami and nuclear meltdowns.

All in together

glad I walked away from my green card.

zichiToday  07:38 pm JST

OssanAmerica

The actual infection rate is probably higher with or without more tests because there are asymptomatic cases as well as reinfection cases.

They need to test all people with symptoms and those who come into contact with someone infected. They a need to test all the vital works.

All people with severe symptoms are already being tested. Bearing in mind that some 80% of infected person are said to show either no or mild symptoms, and an unknown number are asymptomatic, who exactly are "all the people" who you say should be tested? Everyone who wants to get tested? If so, I trust you realize what a burden that would place on the healthcare system, something we are seeing in other countries.

As far as "treat" goes, treat with what? There is no established treatment for COVID19 at this time. All possible treatments are still in their testing stages.

Treating means doing what is available to try and keep people alive like ventilators for people who can't breath.

People who are in severe condition to need respirators are already being treated. If they weren't, Japan would have a massively greater death rate.

>

Addendum.

the testing ratio in Japan makes me question the numbers.

time will tell.

zichiToday  07:33 pm JST

onedragon

Japan is inherently a cleaner country than Italy and most of Asia. I think that reason alone has helped Japan dodge a bullet.

I disagree. I have lived in both countries Italy and Japan. One is no more cleaner than the other. Most Italians take an interest in their appearance and are very fashion conscious. They shower once or twice a day.

Yes, most Italians are fashion concious. And they also kiss each other on the left cheek for every hello and goodbye as anyone who's been to, much less lived in Italy would know. In contrast the Japanese hardly ever even shake hands prefering to bow instead.

Fear mongering much?

No, not fearmongering. It is very worrying that the Japanese government and bureaucracy are making the most of the extra time Japan seems to have had before the outbreak really hits. Even if the fact that people tend to keep their distance more and the widespread use of masks have been a factor - its a pure hypothesis at this point, nobody knows - all that means is that Japan has bought time. The amount of trade and tourism with China and Korea means that it is certain that there is community spread. This is a ticking time bomb, as the US is learning to its cost.

The idiocy, incompetence and self interest of the Japanese government means they are deliberately limiting testing to some sort of "scientific study", meaning we are all their laboratory. Testing in Japan is not aimed at tracing and limiting spread.

Its not a case of if, but when the outbreak hits, and this country is so not prepared for it. Experts (yes they do exist here, but the government is not taking their advice)

http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13230908

Experts say they are being ignored, and there is not discussion in the media of increasing intensive care facilities and providing medical staff with adequate PPE (protective equipment). This is already a desperate shortage in the US, despite the fact that the epidemic has hardly taken off there yet.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-coronavirus-ama-critical-shortage_n_5e753ebec5b63c3b649083a5

If Japan wants to avoid scenes like this (Italy at present_

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfkbv_WQtn0

it needs to change policy radically, immediately.

Sorry, its worrying that the Japanese government and bureaucracy are NOT making the most of the extra preparation time we have had.

For now the most important & urgent for Japan is to continue to beef up healthcare service capacity, and to ensure a safer environment (must first protect care staff in battles) away from general public. Primary access and pre-visit screening process should also be taken carefully.

A big spike can be absorbed and contained if all is set ready on the side of care hospitals. In other words, widespread testing without heightened healthcare capacity and readiness is harmful, or even deadly as already seen in Italy. Considering reliability issues, fast-kit testing alone cannot be a final verdict. Diagnosis should comprise of multiple cross-checks by professionals.

Sorry zichi, but being an Italian living in the U.S. and many other countries I couldn't disagree with you more.

In epidemiological and public health viewpoint, testing is meant to find out cluster locations and spread dynamics. Processes from sampling and data analysis should be selective and rigorous. More piled of testing amounts do not necessarily contribute to the inquiry. And notice, testing itself does not save lives.

If people are seeking for "peace of minds" with fast, easy testing, that's that. But it's another level of talk. Considering reliability and errors, it's rather problematic.

WHO says it will go all over!

In Europe, Italy is announcing 600 deads a day and rising. There is more dead than in China.

That is, if you go by their stats (which we can never verify) but that’s where they’re allegedly saying.

So grieving time is on (like after Fukushima, and let's hope no asian hate). Japan need to do publicity about is perfect reaction and near no dead number tall.

You really believe that?

Please do more testing. Nursing homes, healthcare workers and teachers. Restaurant staff, public transportation workers and hotel staff. Please. Anyone with a fever or cough.

For all those people saying more tests are needed, please answer these questions: why haven't the hospitals here been inundated with patients needing care? If testing does really help contain the virus, why hasn't Italy been able to stop the carnage?

How do you expect hospitals to be inundated with patients when the health centers have been turning down thousands of cases with suspected cases.

I guess you didn't hear of the doctor of a clinic in kobe who was turned down when he requested testing after a patient he oversaw tested positive. If a medical personel who comes in direct contact with patient is turned down what does that tell you.

Insisting on one coming in direct contact with an affected person is only useful when the affected person is known. It will be impossible to proof if you contracted it in the train, bus, supermarket. Restaurant or other public place. The fact that trains are not talked of or considered by experts is really troubling to me, the only logical reason I can think of is that tbousands of people take it daily and a known case in a train will greatly affect job commuting.

@onedragon, I agree with you, Italy is not the cleanest place to be. Very beautiful country, and the history his amazing, but many dirty areas. This U.S. also has a challenge with cleanliness.

"The use of masks" is NOT a valid reason for low infection rates. They don't protect you from airborne particles and offer SOME protection from coughs, sneezes, etc.

Please note that Chinese people also have a culture of "mask-wearing", but that did little to protect them from the virus.

Japan is having around new 50 infected people everyday from clusters, including some infected lately came back from Europe (Spain, Italy, Portugal) according to news. Mortality rate is still low. It doesn't seem a virus spike even if around new 50 people tested positive everyday. Infection rate would decrease some weeks later.

The death rate is pretty much the same as other countries around 4%. Also the Japanese government could clearly confirm the virulence by closely watching the cases rapidly rising on the ship. And still, here we are watching as the government allows schools and amusement parks to reopen... It boggles the mind.

medical professionals wear masks because they meet many people every day who Might have the virus. The doctors and nurses Might get it from a carrier and they don’t want to spread it to other patients who might Not have the virus. So they wear a mask to prevent spreading a virus they might get.

Same as surgeons wear masks. Not to protect themselves from the patient but to protect the patient from the surgeons.

The Japanese have some very unclean habits. Cough and sneeze without covering their mouths. Put their fingers up their noses. Spit in the streets.

I have seen that in almost every country I have ever been in. I think these are unclean "human habits"

Interesting news, but where are the masks? Universe, Life, Aeon, Max Value, Asahi, Happy Drugs, etc. no masks and have been out for over a month with no end in sight? What happened as the weather gears up to allergy season with lots of pollen in the air.

Whatever the reason that Italy is suffering so much from the virus isn't just based on their culture.

I don't even think the smoking rates are as high as many other Southern and Eastern European countries. A big reason is probably having one of the oldest populations on earth as well as the cultural tendency of young people to mingle with their elders.

I am so afraid this is a time bomb. Why would there be so few cases in Japan compared to other countries?

A few days ago, Japan Today published an article titled "Japan testing for coronavirus at fraction of capacity". Why is that?

I hope I am wrong but I am afraid the virus is very much around in Japan as well. And now schools will re-open. As if all is well. Alas it is not and it is scary to see that people don't seem to realize it.

Forget the Olympic Games. Test. Confine.

Don't risk getting to such horrific situations as China and South Korea before (hoping things keep under control there), Western Europe and now the US, among others.

Not sure about the rest of Japan but from what I see here in Osaka and Kobe I expect a mushroom in the coming weeks. I will be very happy to be wrong though!

Since Japan tests only 12/1,000,000 then you have to assume the number exponentially higher than what they have found positive. I mean, you literally cannot test positive for something that you do not test for at all. And is it any surprised that this:

"Although the number of cases is still on the rise, Japan has started scaling back some measures to fight the spread of the virus."

Is followed not long after by this? :

"Olympics organizers have repeatedly said the Games will go on as scheduled."

What interest does Japan have in reporting the truth about the virus numbers when it means losing the Games?

I noticed that some shops no longer place alcohol at their entrances. Maybe, mistakenly believing that it is no longer necessary-the same with face masks not be worn as a few weeks ago.

@kwatt

Japan is having around new 50 infected people everyday from clusters, including some infected lately came back from Europe (Spain, Italy, Portugal) according to news.

Which is more or less the only person they accept to test.

Mortality rate is still low.

Not specially. Too much variability in between countries and too early to have final estimate.

It doesn't seem a virus spike even if around new 50 people tested positive everyday.

Difficult to say according to the testing policy. But I do not remember them being able to track patient 0-1 for several cluster.

Infection rate would decrease some weeks later.

Why ?

@OssanAmerica

All people with severe symptoms are already being tested.

Can you prove it ?

The numbers given for Japan seen low, considering so many friends and colleagues are getting sick with high fevers. Maybe it's just because I'm in the music business! You know, artists!!!

No. of coronavirus infections in Japan passes 1,000

That is only the number of recorded infections. The actual number is of course much higher, seeing that infected people usually show no symptoms for 2 weeks, and some of them never.

Fogetti:

The death rate is pretty much the same as other countries around 4%.

That is the overall death rate. I have seen it broken up in age groups, and there it looked completely different.... a curve from 0 (zero) for the age group 0-9 years up to about 30% for the age group over 80.

@Flute

Doctors now will select patients with serious symptom (for PCR test) out of no-symptom or mild symptom patients. Most people just worry too much about it. No need to test PCR for these people. Serious symptom patients will take PCR test, if test is positive, they are hospitalized/quarantined. Mortality rate is still much lower than China, Italy, Spain. Infection rate would decrease little later unless there are extreme virus spikes/peaks. But we don't know it yet.

For example, mask is virtually useless in defending the coronavirus for most common people. 

There is scientific support for the idea of masks helping prevent the spread of viruses

People are practically talking about this all the time for some time now yet there are still many who don't understand.

Ok let me try.

Masks are like condoms, it's designed primarily to prevent something from coming out, not prevent something from coming in.

If there are airborne droplets coming your way the mask you're wearing may not protect you but if the person who's the source of those droplets is wearing a mask those droplets would not be airborne to begin with.

Even before covid19 wearing masks and taking other infection control precautions have been practiced here widely in japan, it could be a major reason if indeed the low infection counts are true.

For all those people saying more tests are needed, please answer these questions: why haven't the hospitals here been inundated with patients needing care? If testing does really help contain the virus, why hasn't Italy been able to stop the carnage?

How do you expect hospitals to be inundated with patients when the health centers have been turning down thousands of cases with suspected cases.

You mean the health centers and hospitals are turning away people with pneumonia or those likely to have pneumonia?

That would very likely lead to a big spike in number of deaths. It's not just covid19 that leads to that.

ozellisMar. 21  06:24 pm JST

What is conspicuous is that countries like Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong have largely avoided mass infections and deaths.

My guess is that social distancing, the use of masks and a general awareness within the community negates some of the power of this thing.

Agree with you.

Asian countries closer from China were more on their guard and though they were first hit by cases, did not look down at the virus like many, including some governments did in Europe. Masks are said to be useless if we are not sick, the French government claimed that too but now is struggling because there is a high demand of masks from doctors, and from the population too. A big lack of preparation happening in many countries.

Wait and see but here in Japan, people are not talking to each other if the do not know each other. It is part of the social distancing.

Infection rates should be expected to be higher here compared to other countries because of the more stringent requirements for testing, those who are given the test has a higher likelihood of having the virus.

On the other hand, mortality rates should be lower because the health care system is good and can accommodate all patients so far.

Maybe there is something to those masks?

This. Nothing is more aggravating than constantly seeing Westerner's dismissive claim that 'masks don't work', as if they know anything. Masks DO WORK, so long as everybody is wearing them! If an asymptomatic carrier wears a mask every day, the amount of respiratory droplets they release in public, on transport, etc is greatly reduced. It's not foolproof, but it doesn't need to be. All that matters is reducing R0 to a manageable level, which masks help with along with policies like school closures.

Carnage. I've seen it used before in news reports in my country of actual bloodbaths.

Anyway, covid19 has killed around 13,000 around the world sofar.

How would you characterize flu then? News report I read probably 2 or 3 weeks back said flu already killed 16000 in the US alone

Infection rates should be expected to be higher here compared to other countries because of the more stringent requirements for testing, those who are given the test has a higher likelihood of having the virus.

On the other hand, mortality rates should be lower because the health care system is good and can accommodate all patients so far.

Well, the real mortality rates are probably much lower since only those whose conditions are bad are tested.

@coskuri

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5153448/

A single study based on questionnaires from school children? I would call it a placebo effect.

Even surgical masks have not yet demonstrated their effectiveness.

both in-vitro and in-vivo studies indicate that a mask may not be universally necessary in today's surgical environment

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/infection-control-and-hospital-epidemiology/article/evolution-of-the-surgical-mask-filtering-efficiency-versus-effectiveness/BB28A0E3B50BCD293C5281E4AE6DFF00

I do not care whether you wear masks or not, for whatever the reason is. I just pointed out that it is just a joke that wearing masks can help subdue the spread of the coronavirus. This kind of disinformation on the CV is especially widespread in Japan where people rushed out for toilet paper, which is another joke, but I would call it a lamentable tragedy.

@Raw Beer

These statements by health officials are often followed by expressing concern that if everyone start using masks, there won't be enough left over for the care takers. Hmmm, why would care takers use them if they offer no protection...

Read the WHO web page I linked. And watch the video clip at least twice.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks

@Illyas

Masks DO WORK, so long as everybody is wearing them!

Your claim is just a hypothesis that can be easily falsified. In Daegu, the epicenter of S. Korea, I can say that 99% of people wear masks, but the confirmed cases reach 6,344 among the population of 2.6 millions.

You can even count the number of people who do not wear mask in Daegu: https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/02/29/coronavirus-center-south-korea-watson-pkg-vpx.cnn

Your claim is just a typical disinformation like purchasing toilet paper, misleading people to have a false belief of safety, making more vulnerable to infection, actually contributing to the spread of CV.

I tried to get some information about the situation in Japan, and apparently Japanese Govt has more information on their website about China than Japan. The numbers here are so odd and weird I cannot trust them even when I want to.

Given people can be infected and asymptomatic bust still able to transmit this virus, the masks do work. If you have the virus, but don’t know it, the mask will keep your virus carrying fluids contained when you cough or sneeze.

I cannot see public doing anything special to prevent the spread. I've seen people who are having parties in the public parks. congested trains time to time. with that being said, even if the government do not test, patients who are critical and dying must be much much higher compared to this. that means they are doing something. something is preventing the spread.

Considering how bad things are elsewhere, it kind of looks like Japan had dodged a bullet so far (Knock on wood!). It's strange because the Japanese didn't do anything all that extraordinary. Maybe the reaction time to it was a bit earlier.

Masks have been completely sold out since about January 26th.

Why can't we get them?

Considering how bad things are elsewhere, it kind of looks like Japan had dodged a bullet so far 

Really. Just released by Osaka Governor official govt advice received to expect very large increase in next two weeks to be followed by sudden shutdowns

Masks don’t help, but tossing salt over the shoulder? Why people want to believe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/17/masks-might-not-help-tossing-salt-over-shoulder-sure-people-want-believe/

One possible reason is that in times of heightened stress, people tend to resort to “magical thinking” and superstitious behavior — particularly when there seem to be few ways to exert control over a situation.

'The pachinko parlors and game centers are still open.'

One of my previous jobs was cleaning at a pachinko parlour. Every machine is wiped down with disinfectant everyday. Paying attention to the buttons and turning handle. As players tend to sit at a machine all day long and not share the chances of spread through touch are low. As they also just stare directly at the machine any cough/sneeze would be directed forward. The only possbile chance would be splashback towards people sitting close.

They do smoke heavily so if infection route was at a parlour it would be a big risk factor for recovery.

'But you can cover up the cause of deaths - particularly for the old with another disease who die at home. Without testing a death cannot be attributed to COVID-19, but can be attributed to the other disease.'

You can cover up how people die but you can not cover up the death rate overall. At least in my area I do not see an influx of people going to the funeral parlour, groups of people wearing black .... I only just attended a funeral and the place I went was not super busy and the only time corona was discussed was at lunch whilst waiting for the body to be creamated and that was general conversation.

The fact that Japanese strangers, and sometimes people who do know each other, never talk to each other has helped, in my opinion. The fact that neighbours ignore each other, and the total lack of public affection between people has proved an advantage. However, their love of being in crowds and lining up all day will be the death of this country. Stop crowding into Ueno Park.

I don't think it's correct to group Japan with the other East Asian places that have controlled the spread of infection much better, like Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and Singapore. People are slipping into complacency. If they're not careful, Japan will become the next Europe. It's not over. There are new cases every day. How come people in the UK before the lockdown were able to avoid crowding onto the trains and buses? Why are the trains in Japan still crowded (according to my boss)?

@Pukey2

Why are the trains in Japan still crowded (according to my boss)?

As long as you do not froth at the mouth, it is OK.

Only a fool would hope that the Tokyo Olympics will go as scheduled in July. But the bigger fool is someone who still believes that ATHLETES and SPECTATORS from all around the world will come to Tokyo in July 2020.

Come on, face the REALITY ---- THOUSANDS are already died and hundreds more are dying everyday and all you can think about a worldwide sporting event in July 2020...Japan, please stop this foolishness and protect your citizens by giving them the much-needed testing and information about COVD-19...Stop thinking about the olympics and start thinking about the welfare of the Japanese people! It's just the Olympics...your citizens are worth more than a million hosting of the games.

Head line should say "Passes Known Cases"

There be 10 to 20 times more more than that as proven in other countries.

All best japan and her people.

Inadequate testing and delaying the lockdown...Abe clearly prioritized the Olympics over the health of his people. Feel sorry for the healthcare workers on the frontlines. Hospitals will become quickly overwhelmed and doctors will be forced to choose who gets a respirator and who dies...

Due to lack of testing, there is no ACCURATE data of the current number of community spread cases. Best practice: assume everyone is infected or a carrier. Physically isolate yourself from them. STAY HOME!

Nobody knows the actual infection rate, but Japans death rate from this is 8 times lower than Koreas (and unlike the infection rate it is known), so the draconian measures in Korea did not make that much of a difference.

Due to lack of testing, there is no ACCURATE data of the current number of community spread cases. Best practice: assume everyone is infected or a carrier. Physically isolate yourself from them. STAY HOME!

Yes, a lot of people will be trying hikikomori life now for a while. But I wonder how long a sane person can live like that?

The simple fact of the matter is this whole thing has been overblown around the world. Japan is the only country who's handled this well so far. The majority of lockdowns aren't necessary at all.

To those of you who think the Italy situation will repeat itself around the world, I suspect their situation was somewhat unique. Yes, we might have a run on a hospital here and there... but I don't think most of the world will see the same type of situation unfold.

Why did it strike Italy so hard? I don't know for sure, but it seems largely due to a few factors:

More interaction between old and young than many other countries. But Japan has something similar you say? Yes, but....

I suspect the average Japanese senior is healthier than the average Italian senior. Not to say this is always and at all times the case, but Japanese people eat healthier and have much better healthcare than most of the people in Europe. Speaking of which...

The Italian health care system isn't that strong. Health care throughout most of Europe doesn't compare in quality with Japan or the U.S. The Europeans who think otherwise are getting the phrases "better quality" and "less expensive" mixed up. Because organizations who rate a country's health care almost always use the cost of care when you need it as a factor, it tends to make places where care costs less when you need it (but you pay more in taxes) look better in quality than they really are.

I strongly suspect the death rate for this disease is far, far lower than the experts believe. It's quite possible there are hundreds of people walking around with few or no symptoms for every person who has serious issues... though I admit this last assertion is a bit more speculative than my other three points.

Evidence for this last point - at the time of this writing, 16,591 people have died from the virus around the world. 12,079 are currently in critical or serious condition. (source: worldmeters.info). If everybody who's now in critical condition or serious condition dies (unlikely) that gives us a death rate of .0745 percent - hardly the 3 percent number the WHO touted for weeks. And the .0745 percent number doesn't even include the people who are walking around with no symptoms.

Inadequate testing and delaying the lockdown...Abe clearly prioritized the Olympics over the health of his people. Feel sorry for the healthcare workers on the frontlines. Hospitals will become quickly overwhelmed and doctors will be forced to choose who gets a respirator and who dies...

Many here have been spinning the same narrative for at least a few weeks now but still hospitals are not being overwhelmed.

Due to lack of testing, there is no ACCURATE data of the current number of community spread cases. Best practice: assume everyone is infected or a carrier. Physically isolate yourself from them. STAY HOME!

Data doesn't need to be completely accurate to identify clusters, which some people are working their butts off doing. For now, I'm just thankful to them. If they judge things to be getting out of control, I'm sure the lockdown will come. That being said, many people including myself are already staying home.