Tokyo's population dips for 1st time in 26 years

Considering Tokyo is crowded to the point of being uncomfortable, this is positive news to wake up to. Easier to get trains, hospital rooms, hotels, jobs - and just be able to walk around.

The government is showing that growth can be achieved while also achieving a more livable city with a smaller population. Win-win.

Excellent news. Japan is already far, far above her natural carrying capacity in terms of human population.

population dropped to 13,988,129 as of New Year's Day, down 48,592 from a year earlier, the first decrease in 26

Population won't go up forever, where those people will be placed? Will imperial palace generous enough to host when population going up?

Easier to get trains

Nah. They’ll just run fewer trains, my friend. Good for the environment as a whole though.

A short term thing due to covid.

Once things get back to a more normal situation it will increase.

An increase in population in the largest cities in Japan in inevitable ( followed a decade or so by a sharp drop) because more and more of the ever increasing elderly population are going to want to live where they can access services like medical, municipal, supermarket, etc...close to their homes and easy access to public transportation.

Near my previous home and now near my present home they have built 4 large assisted living complexes all sold out even before being completed and the vast majority of the residents are not from Tokyo but from the countryside ( all are operated by the same company and I know the administration well) this same company plans on building another 20 similar facilities within the next 5 years and they aren't even a big players in the assisted living industry.

This would have been expected even without the pandemic as the population is aging.

Considering Tokyo is crowded to the point of being uncomfortable, this is positive news to wake up to.

agree 100%

 Japan is already far, far above her natural carrying capacity in terms of human population.

Sorry Dave- Have to disagree on that one respectfully of course.

Tokyo- Absolutely. Its a sardine can. So are Japan's other major cities like Yokohama and Osaka. But once you get out of the urban centers, the country is empty. Its hollow. As someone who drives and was an avid traveler by car, at least until the pandemic, believe me, Japan has space.

Japan has space

70% of which you cannot build large towns and cities on since it is too mountainous. So the flat areas continue to look even more ghastly by the day, what with Japan's lack of zoning and refusal to bury power lines etc..

On the topic of this Kyodo News article about Tokyo’s population dropping and @antiquesaving’s comment about the elderly desiring to be in large cities like Tokyo, Kyodo News reported the other day that “People moving into the Japanese capital outnumbered those leaving by 5,433 last year.” (28 Jan 2022)

Yes and this was all over the TV (all channels) yesterday. The powers that be are getting worried. Imagine the consequences for them should Tokyo empty out as people get out and demand their freedom, happiness and basic humainty back.

Advice is to get in now while can get some amazing bargains in so called "second tier" cities or the 'inaka" before the exodus really gets under way.

I have talked to so many who have happily made the move and never been happier.

Quite a few of that number will be foreign students, "trainees" and others unable to enter Japan due to covid restrictions.

70% of which you cannot build large towns and cities on since it is too mountainous.

what's the point of getting out of tokyo only to go to another big city?

You can build decent sized towns and villages in the mountains. Nagano and Gunma have quite a few. Togakushi is a very good example. The problem with the mountains is that lack of public transport.

So the flat areas continue to look even more ghastly by the day, what with Japan's lack of zoning and refusal to bury power lines etc..

So true. Not to mention their refusal to buy out those Akiya and give them away to young families as an incentive to have more babies. They just pull them to keep the property value artificially high.

As this is very probably only from official registration data, it says nothing at all about how many people really live and walk around there, legally, illegally, as short stay guests, tourists, students, au-pair and all the like. So an impression of more or less people can quickly change by whatever change in numbers of those unregistered citizens or for example now , if people abide more to SoE, staying home recommendations during the pandemic, less or more sports events, concerts, international gatherings and so on. In other words, that theoretical number has no meaning.

More Tokyo for me..

Excellent news. Japan is already far, far above her natural carrying capacity in terms of human population.

Funny, funny, please run for PM.. Lol..

Japan is already far, far above her natural carrying capacity in terms of human population.

Someone has never taken a train five stops out of Tokyo.

What does this mean; old people died and weren't replaced by young?

Not excellent for those of us living in the towns near to Tokyo as people are relocating here and pushing up house prices

I dont like overcrowded places like Tokyo.

Its good to hear that many have decided to leave Tokyo and move in other area.

I dont like overcrowded places like Tokyo

Its good to hear that many have decided to leave Tokyo and move in other area.

It is interesting, my ex in laws move into Tokyo a few. Years back as the ex father in law long ago stopped driving and they lived in the countryside all their lives. (Now 98 and 88).

Other family members have done the same as have family members of my present wife.

I know far more people (90% elderly) moving into the city than I know people leaving and the few I know that left did so to return to the family homes to care for their elderly parents (telework making it possible for some now).

I was lived 4 years in Tokyo. 2 years away from Tokyo but still living in Kanto for some reasons. My first choice is Tokyo forever. Very very convenient.

Tokyo is Japan.

Positive news in the middle of all the problems caused by the pandemic, if this trends continues maybe in the future a much more balanced population density will become real.

This could be a Covid-related dip, no trainees, no foreign students, and lots of students studying online where they might as well be at home and save their parents the rent in Tokyo. Tokyo's non-Japanese population is something like half a million, and we all know the border is closed. Given the demographics, it seems inevitable that Tokyo's population will join the population everywhere else and start on a permanent decline. It's only a matter of when. Osaka's is already falling.

As for what it means, my main guess would be declining market conditions for Tokyo real estate, though very slowly, not a crash. I wouldn't project other stuff onto it about the environment or quality of life.

Think about all those vacant apartments. Can I negotiate my rent down with my landlord?

One of my dreams is that there's a renaissance, a large-scale repatriation to rural Japan from those megalopolises. The villages and their cultures are dying, and it's not even a slow death.

Seems to me like a veiled accountability explanation of the failed government programs to decongest Tokyo. Not so many people have been signing up for those government assisted housing/ cash to start life outside Tokyo or move to a rural area.

Good news I say, infinite population growth within limited resources is going to break at some point. Tokyo population could decrease for the next 26 years and it'd still be overpopulated.

I think they moved to Kanagawa, Saitama, and bits of Chiba, but still work in Tokyo

Just curious as to how you calculated the "natural carrying capacity" of Tokyo.

> David Brent

Excellent news. Japan is already far, far above her natural carrying capacity in terms of human population.

So, officially, nothing to do with Covid :)

My wife and I have talked about moving back to Japan once my son finishes high school - and she is keen on Tokyo, mostly given travel connections and job opportunities.

I'm actually half thinking we move back to where she's from. Near new houses for between 20-25 million yen which we could buy for cash, and I work remotely. Mountains not so far away, and not too far to the beach either. We shall see.