Tokyo reports 12,211 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 68,039

> countries like France and the UK who are seemingly overwhelmed by cases according to Japanese news, respectively have a case-fatalities ratio of 0.64 and 0.98, while Japan is at 0.58, so there's no huge gap between these countries and Japan of you think about it.

That's actually cause for worry if a country has comparable cfr with Japan. Testing more should drive down cfr, like positivity rates.

Because of Japan's stricter approach to testing it should be expected that Japan's cfr is significantly more.

Having comparable cfr with Japan together with a high number of cases means a high number of deaths

@Sanji

By the time the boosters are available the wave will have passed and cases will be non existent.

Covid-19 will never be 'non existent'. Surely you know this by now.

By the time the boosters are available the wave will have passed and cases will be non existent.

Many reasons a Lowe death rate here, mainly from low obesity, better physical health and better dietary habits.

It's indisputable that those factors also affect the death rate. There are numerous papers showing that the pathology of COVID is connected to the inflammatory response - poor diet, a higher distribution of fat tissue, cardiovascular disease and diabetes would exacerbate the inflammatory response and the course of the disease. Not sure why people are arguing about this...

@CommodoreFlag, I understand your reasoning, but according to data from https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html countries like France and the UK who are seemingly overwhelmed by cases according to Japanese news, respectively have a case-fatalities ratio of 0.64 and 0.98, while Japan is at 0.58, so there's no huge gap between these countries and Japan of you think about it.

Again, I appreciate the respectful reply. Unfortunately, I again do have to disagree with you on the application of CFR as a comparator between countries as it is influenced by the type of testing. Case fatality is the ratio of confirmed deaths to confirmed cases. So if a country is carrying out testing of all cases including mild cases or asymptomatic cases like the UK or France, they attain a better CFR than a country like Japan which carries out fewer tests on asymptomatic or mild cases and only testing severely symptomatic patients who are more unlikely to recover.

I think deaths per million is a better metric, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

France: 2,023

UK: 2,313

Japan: 154

how many of those who die at home are not included in the death related to COVID? 

I don't think that this is likely to be a significant number. This would suggest that there is a very large number of COVID deaths that are happening a home that are not being later investigated/questioned by doctors and their families.

I think the more credible theory is that Japan has just fared better due to cultural (and maybe genetic) reasons.

Yes, probably. You cannot have more reported positive cases than the number of tests performed.

Yes you can, the positive cases include clinical diagnoses without actual lab testing.

Saying that you’re posting facts and/or data with absolutely no verifiable information is just your warped opinion. If I say spring is coming soon , just wait for it and post it everyday, eventually it will come true . Omicron is as deadly as any variant in Japan. With children leading the surge in new case numbers , I thought others would start to come around . But these are the same people that think it’s totally okay that the elderly, morbidly obese Americans (only Americans are obese , I guess ) and those with pre-existing conditions get seriously ill and die from Covid. No healthy , not a single healthy person has had a negative outcome from Covid . Right ? The wannabe scientists and doctors that continue to post false and outright misleading statements here should be banned by the mods for it. They toss around insults because most of us can read facts for what they are . We are nowhere near the peak. Numbers are NOT falling. Go tell the friends and family members of the 600+ who died this past week from Covid that there’s nothing to see here . Go tell parents not to worry. Daijobu! Even though Japan does NOT publish the mortality rate , serious infection rate, or recovery rate of children in any age group. Yet that’s the group leading the national surge . FACTS. Just plain old fashioned facts !

 Does it have consequences? Maybe not, but it is a good indicator of what infection numbers would look like if Japan was mass testing, like the vast majority of developed countries.

Appreciate your respectful reply and your explanation.

I'm afraid I can't agree with you that a positivity rate based on case numbers and positive tests is a good way to try and align pandemic management with that of other countries. There are too many factors that affect the number of people submitting themselves to testing on a day to day basis and testing itself just isn't accurate enough (especially with omicron). I believe we can use hospital occupancy and deaths as an accurate comparison of how effectively the pandemic is being managed here.

I do agree that basing travel policies and bans on the numbers alone is flawed but they have now moved to serious hospitalizations as the index for restrictions at least. I am hopeful that travel restrictions and quarantine requirements will be relaxed next month.

Western countries for having more cases than Japan

I think this is by and large true though. Western countries have had a tougher time containing each variant of the virus. If you don't think this, you'd have to explain why there are far fewer deaths per population in Japan, South Korea, Thailand, etc. than in Western countries.

There is a limit on the number of hypochondriacs who want a pcr test for a runny nose.

Don't worry. Japan is aiming to do 1000000 vaccine doses a day to stem the virus( now just about at its peak unless the numbers are just flattening out because they have reached the limits of their testing) After promising to talk about giving boosters in various headlines since December they have now well into February upgraded their reporting to a definite aim to give many doses. ( of course many people still have a couple months to wait until they get their coupons so will only be getting their booster after the current wave has subsided)

Cases are peaking and although deaths will continue to rise slightly, the hospitals are hardly collapsing. I would wager they are no more busy than any other cold and flu season.

All this with 95% of the population unboosted.

The utter failure of the Israeli experiment and their capitulation is there in black in white for all to see.

Think very hard before you continue with this bizarre experiment.

And how do we know that half of Tokyo is not infected already?

“Do they not realize it takes two weeks for the vaccines to kick in?”

No, we are very dumb here. Thanks for the enlightenment.

Expect the decline after the peak to be as sudden and rapid as the initial increase

I am curious how they calculate that, because in the report (https://www.fukushihoken.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/hodo/saishin/corona2883.files/2883.pdf) the average testing for the past 3 days is 15,844 and today's numbers are 12,211, which is 77%.

Not too sure about it. On the website I linked I think it is including PCR and antigen tests, maybe some sources are only counting results from PCR tests?

Small rise as we reach the peak of cases without serious disruptions to the health services due to the mildness of Omicron.

Contra FFS Fact check:

One; that is an annoying preface to many posts.

Volume and repetition do not equate to veracity.

Nor rapidity of posting.

Nor intimating in your user name that the pandemic is somehow a "false flag event".

Nor daily repetition of talking points about the inconsequence of the pandemic.

The signal to noise ratio should be modulated.

Anyway, the positive rate of people who get tested in Tokyo is 77%

According to here: https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/monitoring

the positivity rate in testing is 39.2%. That is still incredibly high though, considering the recommended maximum is 5%. It means that we are probably missing an awful lot of cases in testing - especially considering that Omicron often gives mild symptoms that do not fit the classic COVID symptoms of high fever and persistent cough and loss of taste/smell. It's anybody's guess what the real numbers are - could be double, could be 10x.

the positive rate of people who get tested in Tokyo is 77%

This is literally something people on this message board have invented by themselves. It is of no scientific consequence.

Narutal

The duration and peak of the wave can be Donne by analysis. The data from other countries which had Omicron outbreaks first and the current data here. We can see that this spreads much faster in the cities so they will peak faster than rural areas.

Predictable Sunday dip. Back around 20K by the second half of this week.

With boosters still way off for the majority of the population despite today's announcement, we'll likely see the numbers remain high for at least a couple more weeks.

Do they not realize it takes two weeks for the vaccines to kick in?

Small rise as we reach the peak of cases without serious disruptions to the health services due to the mildness of Omicron.

Cases will fall quickly in the major cities but may rise in some more furfural areas where Omicron has not taken hold as much. The overall numbers will begin to fall and shortly after severe cases and deaths will too.